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Bitcoin Tests Liquidity At $46k After A Massive Short SqueezeIt's very possible that I'll be proven correct in my analysis where I stated that the death cross may not matter so much this time around. Here is the original analysis, where I compared Bitcoin price to Amazon stock: The fact that Bitcoin has broken the 200 day MA (teal) is already a positive development. Just look at what happened after the death cross in 2018: Bitcoin failed to even test the 200 day MA after the death cross and rolled right back over to support. Compare this with today. Bitcoin will ideally need to continue holding above the 200 day MA (just below, near $45k) to pick up enough bullish momentum to break the all-time high. On a larger correction, I do not want to see Bitcoin drop below the 100 day MA (yellow), which had held as support since October, 2020 until it was broken this past May. The 100d MA currently lies around $38.7k. If our 2021 "bear market" is to continue, we should see price get rejected in this liquidity zone and head back down towards the $29-30k support. Breaking decisively below $38k again would be a sign of weakness. Then, I think Bitcoin can test the lower liquidity zone between $13-20k, as noted on my chart. Over a month ago, I wrote an analysis about the importance of the $46-65K liquidity zone, and why I thought we could end up there BEFORE seeing any new lows. Here's the original analysis: When I wrote that analysis, I had finally started feeling bearish/neutral on the market. My sentiment was starting to turn pretty sour. However, I continued to rebuy a little at those levels, which went against my emotions. It's now paying off. I had also planned to reduce some risk once Bitcoin reached $46k again, depending on how strong the market looked at the time. The market actually looks stronger than I had expected on a bounce, so I'm going to hold off a bit. Just a few weeks ago, hardly anyone on here was expecting new highs later this year. Nearly all the charts on the front page pointed to a major breakdown below $30k. Regardless of how you draw it, Bitcoin has now broken the curved resistance I've been watching for months. If you press play on the liquidity idea from late June, it looks like a perfect breakout and retest. The way I've drawn it for this current analysis has the most touches, and it shows the breakout occurring just after the bear trap below $30k. Now we have a variety of different options. Below is what I'd expect if the bull market suddenly continues. I drew this trajectory towards the end of July: Of course, the above is completely speculative, and is essentially an "ideal" scenario. It likely won't play out that way at all. Again, on the bearish side, I want to see the 200 day MA become support again, and for the 100 day MA to be held on any larger corrections. I also want to see a golden cross occur in September or October, which would validate my original idea that using the death cross is not useful in assuming any further downside. Instead, the death cross just tells us about bearish price action that has already occurred. This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. A couple of reminders: 1) I am working on a podcast! 2) I am partnering with Mudrex - if you wish to support me you can sign up using my referral (linked below). I've been doing this for some years already, and it's time I start thinking about how to make this more sustainable for me in the long run. -Victor Cobra
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by VictorCobra
7
FOMO, The GOOD and the BAD! Good day everyone, this is my second psychology method. Today we are learning about FOMO. FOMO is another word for Fear of missing out. This means a couple of things in the mind of trader. "Oh my god, it keeps going up." "I am going to miss it" "Fudge it, all in" "I can make a lot of money if I go in." "It is going to the MOON!" When this comes to mind of a trader, it losses their train of thought. The strategy that they have been using just goes out the window. Some call it "Risk it for the biscuit." The worse thing about fomoing into a crypto or pair is winning it, this is because it becomes a habit and each time something pumps 100% or more they end up fomoing. The only problem is, what if it doesn't go higher and it just dumps so quick for someone to react. In the end of the day, you will lose a lot of money. You might get lucky but luck runs out. If you win by fomoing once or twice, then do not keep doing it. It was free money that the market gave you. Go back to your strategy and just call it an Anomaly. Example: The crypto you are looking at is called ACH, this crypto got listed to coinbase and it pumped over 1,000% in the last 4 days. What I notice in the crypto chat, is that many people, especially people new to the market wanted to get in even though it pump so much. ACH kept going higher and higher and I knew the fomo was kicking in. Seconds later, boom it dump. It dumped fast. As a patience trader, I wait for the best entry and even though I miss the pump, I still manage to get 50% from scalping. Remember this is not the only method you use to be a successful trader. There are many aspect to become one. Thank you!
COINBASE:ACHUSD
by OmaOne
6
Litecoin Shows The Way - Part II In November, 2020, I wrote an analysis about how I thought Litecoin's major downtrend break could signal that some life would return to the cryptocurrency market. The call ended up being correct: A year before that, I wrote about why I thought the bottom could be in for the cryptocurrency market, but also why I didn't expect Litecoin to do much for a while: More recently, I made a call for Litecoin to make a new all-time high. Although it briefly skimmed the high from the previous bull market, it failed to sustain - and my analysis ended up being incorrect for the time being. I did note the possibility of the broadening wedge breakdown, and subsequent updates gave some of those lower targets. What's up with Litecoin now? By all appearances, it's dead. Well, at least if you compare it to Ethereum. Against Bitcoin, LTC has not yet made a new low, but against the #2 cryptocurrency, Litecoin has certainly underperformed, and has been doing so for 2 years straight. Will that ever change? Not unless it can break out of the massive downtrend against ETH (righthand chart). However, I have now accumulated Litecoin at both touches of the lower trendline of the downtrend channel since February, with the hope of using it to increase some of my other crypto positions (mainly ETH), once the ratio becomes more favorable for selling. My goal, which may be unachievable, is to sell LTC once the ratio against ETH gets to 0.5, and once LTCUSD gets well above the long term bullish channel (preferably above $1000). After all, I managed to sell LTC to ETH at 0.5 once before in 2019, after first buying LTC at $32. The last two times this happened, it signaled a major market top. So, does this mean we haven't yet reached a major market top? Or...is Litecoin losing relevance in the cryptocurrency market? There are arguments to be made for both cases. Despite how Litecoin has underperformed, I've been buying Litecoin only during this huge crypto market correction. My reasoning might seem a little odd, but I see it as a bit of an outlier and an interesting opportunity. Plus, after reducing my initial risk in January, Litecoin dropped the hardest, and even went below my sell price. So, I redeployed about 15% of my initial risk to accumulate a more substantial Litecoin position. Maybe I'm just stubborn, and I need to simply let go of the position. Just because I made a great LTC trade in 2019 doesn't mean I'll get lucky again. Maybe I'm seeing things I just want to see. It hasn't been a fun one to hold this year. Even leading up to its eventual top near the previous all-time high (above $400), each move up resulted in a violent retrace. It almost seemed like it would never truly break out. Then, once it looked like it was finally about to make a new all-time high, the entire market crashed. Anyone who was already growing tired of Litecoin probably sold. Meanwhile, mysteriously, grayscale has continued to accumulate a sizeable amount of LTC for its trust (almost 38,000 LTC in the last month, while it sold 1000 BTC). I think it's possible Litecoin's drop was exacerbated by the China mining crackdown. As a legacy proof-of-work coin, Litecoin also requires substantial energy to mine. The Litecoin network is also used to mine DOGE, which is why perhaps LTC and DOGE peaked at around the same time in May, 2021. Despite this major black swan event, LTC price has stabilized for now above $130, which is still near the peak level from 2019. It's also holding above the middle of the long term bullish channel (lefthand chart). However, Litecoin is starting to drift below the 50 week MA (red on the chart below). Since the 50 week MA is currently Bitcoin's support, weakness from Litecoin could spell trouble for Bitcoin as well. Litecoin is really trying hard to hold above the downtrend against Bitcoin, which is perhaps why it's outperforming the market a little bit today. If it cannot hold above this downtrend, I can see it making new lows: If this happens, Litecoin could break below the middle of the longer term bullish channel and eventually touch the bottom, putting it well below $100 again. I was hoping for Litecoin to make a move like its previous cycle (circled below). Again, it's possible the China crackdown created an anomaly. In this case, I would expect LTC to do what no one expects - pump right up to the longer term downtrend and triple on the ratio in a matter of just a couple weeks. This would also allow it to test the 0.2 level against Ethereum. For this to happen, Litecoin needs to break the downtrend on my chart for starters. This could push price all the way up to $240-250 to test the channel resistance. The last time LTC broke a major downtrend, Bitcoin broke its all-time-high shortly thereafter. Maybe Litecoin's performance today shows some hidden strength in the market. The crypto fear/greed index has maintained below 30 for the longest time in its 3.5 year history. The other times this happened were towards the end of 2018 (last bear market bottom) and in March, 2020. Both were great buying opportunities, with Bitcoin at roughly 1/10th the current price. The fact that sentiment is so low, with Bitcoin being priced that much higher is very interesting. It tells me that a correction this severe and this long was perhaps needed. This is not financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Thank you for your support. I plan on starting a small podcast some point in the near future, so stay tuned for updates about that. It'll be about markets, humanity, psychology, and all that good stuff. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:LTCUSDLong
by VictorCobra
7
CRYPTOCAP UPDATE!!!!Hi Traders, So we feel its necessary to do a quick update on the current crypto market. We've started the week with a pullback which has brought down the the market. We've tested the 0.5 Fib level but looks like the rejection of that level is weak so we expect a further fall in price into the first grey zone beneath where we will continue to monitor price action for indication of which direction the market wants to take. We'll want to see higher low forming for prices to start looking bullish again in the short term. As always if you enjoy the content don't forget to click the like button and make a comment on your opinion. Thanks MS ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Market-Snipers
The Perfect Spot To Bounce (Crypto TOTAL Market Cap)Well, clearly my stubborn bullishness hasn't paid off in the short term. When do I flip bearish? When I see the monthly close below the 9 EMA, and some of these previous supports violated on the major indexes (TOTAL and TOTAL2). TOTAL2 (right) is still a long ways from the death cross itself, but I suppose this also means it has a lot more to fall. It can also mean that the daily death cross (red over teal) simply won't happen. Right now the altcoin index is resting on the previous uptrend channel resistance. Holding it as support would be extremely bullish.....but we must be aware of the potential downside if it fails. This could cut TOTAL2 nearly in half from here, putting ETH sub $1k and many weaker alts back to some previous bear market lows, including Litecoin (unfortunately). As for TOTAL, the current level is very close to the high from January, so it would be a sign of strength to see it hold as support. And believe it or not, this could produce continuation towards new highs later this year. I redeployed about 15% of my initial risk back into the market in this range. I do not plan on adding any more for now, since I'd first like to see where buyers finally step in. These are the trendlines I'm watching for TOTAL Here's the monthly, showing that we could finally close below the 9 EMA if we don't get a bounce soon. Here's Bitcoin dominance. Honestly, I was expecting it to shoot up to 51% pretty quickly, but it may just get stropped at the yellow trendline if the market bounces here. Bitcoin itself has this trendline on the Coinbase chart. Watching this closely as well: As always, this is not financial advice! Clearly I've been wrong in calling for continuation at this point. Of course, in a few months I may end up being right. Or crypto will be dead. But the longer it's around, the longer it cements itself as an integral part of our society. I find this stuff fascinating. As such, this should be used for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by VictorCobra
8
$BTC Bitcoin UpdateHello guys, new update. Its been long time that i didn't post anything because BTC was ranging and it's still ranging. But we are now on a important level. We need to close some candles above this level what i marked. We hold 33K level very well and that's bullish for now. We can drop a little but today but that changes nothing. We need to gain (close some daily candles) above 39.5K - 40K. If we do that we can expect that we can go to 44K level. That will be the next RSS. That's it for now. I will update again when we see more bullish momentum or if we gain something. What i am sharing here is for long-term. That mean's you need patience. Have a nice day. And keep youre money safe!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by OutlawWarriorX
BTC - Warning - May fall to 22K*** Not a financial advice *** There are signs that BTC may fall to 22-21K. It is not exact of course but i compare it with past behavior and comfirm it with indicators. In this scenario i copied candle pattern from rally starting at a point until to ATH (All time high) and reversed it to see if there is a similarities with falling. I used Fibonacci Bollinger Bands indicator plus Fibonacci Speed Resistance Fan straight and reversed version to compare it with todays situation. I found a price location. And then I checked it with monthly Bollinger Band to see it's possibilities and then I saw the same location with Bollinger Band's baseline. Again, of course none of these clues can be exact but i think it is worth to pay attention on it. If this fall going to be happen, I am waiting it to be hapen within few days or a week, or less than 2 weeks.
by trader_ozyw
5
can litecoin break downtrend?we are seeing bullish movement in the crypto market, but for us as traders we like price to break areas of sensitivity and zones so then we know that there is no areas of sell pressure that is going to stop price hitting our final take profit. so what we will be waiting for on litecoin for us to be interested is a bullish engulfing candle that breaks the downtrend and also the monthly zone, then we will look to place a buy limit order to have a trade to the next level of major sell pressure.
BITFINEX:LTCUSDLong
by Trade_Rocket_Investments
$BTC Bitcoin Update!Hello Crypto people! :D New update. We are still in positive upwards momentum. We are trying to break up, but we are in a triangle what you can see on my chart. I have a scenario and you can watch it on my chart. We are still in dangerous zone. If we break the white arrow we can speak more positively about BTC. You know from my previous charts. I bought spot on 30k for long-term. And i should hold it. But for now we are waiting for a breakout. It can be also downwards because this triangle can break both sides, but i think we are in a upside momentum and has potential to break upwards. Market will tell us what it wants. We will see it on our charts. If there change anything i will update it again. Have a nice day ! And keep youre money safe ! :D
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by OutlawWarriorX
Bitcoin Dominance to 50%+ Before The Next Altseason?As far as I know, I'm one of the few who successfully called the top in Bitcoin dominance back in 2019. Here is the original analysis: Another one from 2019: Here's my most recent analysis on Bitcoin dominance. You can press play and see how it declined precisely to my target level, although XLM failed to achieve my price targets for this leg, unfortunately. From October, 2020 when dominance was 63%: Plotting the relationship between DXY (dollar index) and BTC Dominance: Speculating about a bull run for altcoins well in advance: Target reached from this May, 2020 analysis (although a bit later than I was expecting): All this time, I maintained my belief that Dominance would ultimately drop to the broadening wedge support, which FINALLY happened recently. Since reaching the bottom of the wedge, Dominance has bounced and Bitcoin has attempted to establish a new support level around $30k. From a rational/market cycle standpoint, it seems that Bitcoin could be ready for its next wave up - and it may leave alts in the dust yet again, for a time. However, the decline in altcoin ratios may not last particularly long, if the previous cycle is any indication (see the area circled in yellow). Oscillators have some room to run, but Bitcoin dominance still looks extremely bearish on the monthly timeframe. The monthly MACD only recently flipped red, and we just experienced a bearish cross of the 9 EMA over the 50. I don't expect the bearish trend for Dominance to change, even if Bitcoin breaks to a new ATH soon. Instead, I think it can head towards 50% (or a little higher) before alts have their turn again. In the final phase of the cycle, I think things could get even more ridiculous with altcoins, so I am ultimately targeting a new low for Bitcoin dominance. Let's see how it plays out! Of course, the cycle may have already ended, and I'm preparing for that...but so far things are playing out as I would expect them to, in the middle of the cycle, despite Bitcoin dropping below some key MA's. The bullish structure for the market is maintained with prices and indexes holding above the 9 month EMA for now. On the bearish side for the market - I think dominance will also INCREASE if Bitcoin heads to lower levels from here, with alts dropping extremely hard. So it's important to recognize that this could happen, even though I don't want it to. If the cycle is over, I'd expect the move up for Dominance to be slow and painful, killing off many newly hyped projects with no substance, just as it occurred in 2018-2019. This is not financial advice! This is for speculative purposes only. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by VictorCobra
10