Orion (ORN) - Bullish divergenceOn the above 4-day chart price action has corrected 98% since 26 dollars.
Is now a better opportunity from that one published in January @ 1 dollar? (linked)
At this time:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts plus backtests confirmations.
2) Strong bullish divergence as measured over 60 days. 8 oscillators print positive divergence with price action.
3) What was said above is also true for the ORN-BTC pair.
4) The falling wedge breakout prints on legacy support. It is from here the flagpole is used to measure the target, which is also the golden ratio @ 6 dollars or thereabouts.
Is it possible price action could fall further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: act now
Return: 1100% / $6
Cryptocurrencies
BITCOIN Inverse H&S in full motion. Next stop = $100k.We have been expecting the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) to break-out above the Lower Highs trend-line since May 06 (see chart below) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) dully delivered:
In fact, what we will do on this idea is simply update the Bullish Megaphone of May 02 and chart it inside a more fitting Channel Up:
The previous two IH&S bottom formations delivered a rise of around +95%. With the 1D MACD on the same Bullish Cross that was present on both of those bottoms, we are expecting the $100000 psychological target to be reached after July, which will even be a rise below +90%.
What is your take on this? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Risk-on mood is on, but ETF inflows are slowing downOn Monday, we outlined a neutral trend of a lesser degree, as implied by the daily chart. In addition to that, we observed a formation of the inverted head and shoulders on the 3-hour chart, noting the potential for a small price surge if the neckline was broken to the upside. Interestingly enough, in a broad market risk-on move yesterday, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose through the neckline and continued to march above $66,000, where it currently trades. As a result, technical conditions slightly improved on the daily chart and moved toward the bullish side, with RSI and Stochastic resuming growth. Nevertheless, MACD has not yet returned to the bullish zone above the midpoint, and the ADX has not recorded a significant rise, suggesting the trend is still either neutral or very weak if bullish. The major resistance lies at $67,513; if this level is taken out, it will likely open a path to $70,000.
Apart from technicals, major stock market indices recovered nicely from recent selling, being a positive development for Bitcoin, which remains highly correlated with the U.S. tech sector; unless indices start forming a double top, the chances of Bitcoin returning above $70,000 and marking new all-time highs will grow. What is more concerning, though, is that inflows into various Bitcoin-related ETFs saw a significant slowdown this month. For example, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) recorded $226.07 million inflows in April 2024. However, so far this month, it saw merely $10.6 million flowing into the coffins. The same is the case for Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), whose inflows amounted to $659.42 last month and only $26.19 in the current one. Similarly, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced inflows of more than $1.6 billion last month but only $23.91 million thus far in May 2024.
Illustration 1.01
The 3-hour Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart portrays the inverted head and shoulders and bullish breakout through the neckline.
Illustration 1.02
The illustration portrays Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) daily MACD. Its return above the midpoint will bolster a bullish case in the short term. Contrarily, a failure to break through the midpoint will raise slight concerns over an impending loss of momentum, especially if combined with a lack of growth in ADX.
Illustration 1.03
The image above shows simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
Bitcoin addresses
The number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC increased moderately in the past two days, but the rise is insignificant. Besides that, the figure is still lower than a month ago. The same applies to the addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CHZ/USD Main trend. Pivot Zones.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week The main (long-term) trend. The idea is to understand where the price is in the main trend. Reversal zones and key support/resistance levels for work.
This is what it looks like on a line chart.
Secondary trend. Time frame 3 days.
CHZ/USDT Secondary trend
Local trend. Time frame 1 day.
CHZ/USD Local trend. Pivot area.
BITCOIN Is 150k by August realistic?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) started to rise again, which is very natural as it almost completed a -25% correction (normal during Bull Cycles) and closed yesterday above the 1D MA50 after two straight rejections.
The situation couldn't look better on the long-term charts as well, namely on 1W where it is at a cyclical stage (ellipse on the chart) where during past Cycles it started its most aggressive rally.
As you can see, BTC rebounded on the EMA Ribbon, after making a new All Time High (ATH) while also recovering the Mayer Multiple SD1 from above (grey trend-line). When those parameters got met in the past, Bitcoin always touched at least the MMB SD2 from above (orange trend-line).
Based on that, the next Target on this run is $150000. Do you think that would be realistic as early as the end of August? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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The trend of a lower degree turns neutral againBitcoin continues to hover within the downward-sloping channel, and the trend of a lower degree remains neutral, as implied by the low value of the daily ADX and choppy price action. With these developments in place, the focus lies on support at $60,760 and $60,000; a breakout below these two levels will bolster a bearish case in the short term, especially a breakout below the latter. This case would also be strengthened by declining RSI and Stochastic on the daily graph, along with MACD’s failure to move into the bullish area above the midpoint. Contrarily, a bullish case would be strengthened by the rise in all mentioned indicators simultaneously, along with a breakout above the 20-day SMA and later the 50-day SMA.
Illustration 1.01
The yellow arrow indicates a temporary fakeout above the important trendline; if Bitcoin breaks above it and manages to stay there, it will be positive for the cryptocurrency in the short term.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows simple support and resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Bitcoin addresses
There have not been any notable changes to the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC; the same applies to the addresses with holdings exceeding 100 BTC.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTCUSDOne of my sell positions for BTCUSD during the tradingview competition (up $8,200). Sell on the theory markets range 70% of the time. LTF breakdown suggest HTF continuation.
BITCOIN starting a mega rally. See when alts will follow.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just completed the final consolidation phase (red Rectangle) that as per the price action of past Cycles, is the final stage before the 1-year rally to the new Top. As you can see alt coin market (black trend-line) tends to bottom after Bitcoin's rally has already started and when it turns sideways again for a few weeks.
Technically alts make that 2nd major Higher Low on their Cycle and rebound when BTC investors take some profits and direct a certain portion of capital to the riskier but more generous in terms of returns, altcoin market.
So if you're wondering what to do next, be bullish on BTC and as the new rally extends, start taking profits towards August and make sure you're invested in alts. The lower their dominance is by then, the better.
Do you agree with this approach? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETHUSD Bearish Robbery Plan To make and take moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Bearish side of ETHUSD Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned with target in the chart focus on Short entry, Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous area market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic resistance level, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next target.
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BCHUSD Bearish side Money Heist PlanMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Bearish side of BCH/USD Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned with target in the chart focus on Short entry, New Robbers who looking to join the heist they should enter after the breakout only. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous area market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic resistance level, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next target.
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Coinbase's high uncertainty rating explained, key zone $190Coinbase's stock price has been in a downward consolidation phase since March, with a key level zone identified at $190. This zone represents previous highs and serves as a crucial support level during this period.
A breach below $190 could trigger selling pressure, potentially pushing the price lower towards the open gap at $143. This scenario suggests that a break below $190 may signal further downside momentum in Coinbase's stock price.
Coinbase's first-quarter earnings, scrutinized by Morningstar, revealed robust growth driven by surging cryptocurrency prices and volatility. Revenue more than doubled to $1.6 billion, bolstered by a $737 million gain on mark-to-market cryptocurrency assets, resulting in a net income of $1.18 billion. The retail trading business emerged as the primary revenue driver, experiencing a 99% increase from the previous quarter and a remarkable 184% surge from the previous year, totaling $935.2 million. Despite concerns over long-term price competition due to high fees relative to peers, Coinbase's market share remained resilient, with average pricing trending upwards.
Economic Moat Rating and Financial Strength
Morningstar assessed Coinbase's economic moat as nonexistent, despite its leading position in the US cryptocurrency exchange market. The company's reputation for reliability and compliance has allowed it to charge higher fees than many competitors. With over $5.1 billion in cash and significant cryptocurrency assets, Coinbase maintains a strong financial position, providing flexibility during periods of market volatility.
Risk and Uncertainty, Bull and Bear Perspectives
Coinbase's exposure to cryptocurrency prices and trading volume, coupled with regulatory uncertainty and interest rate exposure, contributes to its Very High Uncertainty Rating. Bulls emphasize Coinbase's leading market position and potential for global expansion, while bears caution against the cyclical nature of cryptocurrency markets and regulatory challenges, including allegations of acting as an unregistered securities exchange by the SEC.
BITCOIN Another 1D MA50 rejection. More bleeding ahead?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke again below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) after the 3rd rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in almost 1 month (since the April 13 bearish break-out). If it stays unbroken, it is a far from ideal development as the 1-year price action has shown us that such a pattern risks making a Lower Low.
The technical structure since April 08 is a Channel Down nonetheless, so such feat is certainly possible on the short-term. As you can see from past 1D MA50 bearish break-outs, BTC tends to get more than 2 rejections and excluding January 2024, it has stayed below the 1D MA100 for longer.
What's interesting is that if that Lower Low is made, it wouldn't just make a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test, but would also almost complete a -30% decline from the recent All Time High. Something that during Bull Cycle rallies is perfectly natural for Bitcoin.
SO do you think the market will go for it?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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AKTUSD Excellent 3X buy opportunityLast time we looked at Akash Network (AKTUSD) was on August 22 2023 (see chart below) and it followed our pull-back buy approach precisely, hitting our 2.8000 Target with ease:
The coin has again started to draw attention as it broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 2nd time after the bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the 1-year Channel Up. With the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holding, this break-out confirms essentially the start of the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
The first peaked at +678%, the second at +799%, so if that's a progression it is possible to see the third one peaking at +879%. However even if the +678% minimum rise is followed, we are looking at a 3X growth from the current levels.
As a result, we set a modest 23.000 medium-term Target on Akash for the next Higher High. It is worth noting also that the 1D RSI gave a clear bottom signal when it hit the 30.00 oversold barrier and rebounded.
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BITCOIN Nothing to stop this Channel reaching 100k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading within the Rally Channel (green) with the price having already reached its bottom, making the 2nd Higher Low of the pattern. This is the very same pattern that emerged in the previous Cycle after the Growth Channel Up and took BTC to its new All Time High (ATH) at the time.
Both Growth Channels had a crash event below them, the previous Cycle even had a bubble event above it (Libra euphoria). But once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) turned into a Support after the Halving, the Bitcoin rally never looked back.
The 1W STOCH indicator, which is very similar to the past Cycle as well, shows that we might even be much earlier in the Cycle symmetrically than we think of. In any case the next two Higher Highs for the Rally Channel are $100k and $140k.
But what do you think? Are those Targets even plausible, let alone achievable by the end of Summer? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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XCH /USDT (Chia) Main trend. Horizontal channel 11.6 monthsLogarithm. Time frame 1 week. Main trend.
Maximums trend. False targets.
KuCoin exchange chart. At the peak of pumping, under the bull market hype price was HKEX:1600 (OKX exchange, where there is also a significant volume of trades). This price should not be considered in TA because it was made (more than 2000$) at listing and with super low liquidity. Resistance levels (target sell zones) are marked in different colors for clarity. Remember, the less you set targets in the trading tools (coins), the more you earn at a distance in the market.
The horizontal channel zone (accumulation of almost 1 year).
At the moment of publication, the price has been moving for 350 days (11.6 months) in the parallel horizontal accumulation channel with the step of 108.4%. This is a good sign. The price is now in a squeeze (the average price of this accumulation).
This is what the trend looks like on the line chart.
Stop Loss Zone. Rationality of the strategy.
I would like to emphasize that the stop loss under the support of this accumulation has not been knocked out (reset) at this point. This is not a mandatory action, but it is common. Just keep it in mind and consider it a conditional temporary risk, so to speak. To minimize this contingent risk, use a stop loss or, more rationally, work at an average buy/sell price. Let me remind you again that the price is now clamped with orders on the exchange (it has been there conventionally for 6 weeks) and this is the average price of this parallel channel.
I deliberately showed the percentage values of the main support/resistance zones in case of the price compression (6 weeks in a very narrow range) on the chart for orientation and understanding of the logic of work.
Secondary trend Time frame 3 days
XCH /USDT (Chia) Secondary trend. Channel.
BITCOIN Mega Global Liquidity Buy Signal triggered!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has seen a major buy signal getting triggered at the end of last month, that few are aware of. Our dominant circulating liquidity + High Yield corporate bonds formula (black trend-line) made a bottom and is rebounding, while BTC has been consolidating/ marginally pulling back.
Every time this combination took place in the past (green circles), Bitcoin was accumulating and shortly after started the parabolic rally phase (green ellipse). This is basically one of the most consistent long-term buy signals you can get in the market.
Are you really willing to bet against the market on this one?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin stages rebound but large speculators are not buyingFollowing a breakdown below $57,000, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rebounded last week in a broad market risk-on move. Currently, it trades near the $64,000 price tag, situated slightly above the 20-day SMA, which now acts as a critical support level; a failure to hold ground above this level will be concerning, while a success could foreshadow continuation higher. With that in regard, resistance at $67,241 and support at 60,760 are of the utmost focus.
Illustration 1.01
The image portrays the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as the critical support level, while the 50-day SMA acts as resistance. Thus far, Bitcoin has managed to close above the 20-day SMA for two consecutive days, which is quite positive. However, due to closes above this level occurring over the weekend, it is appropriate to wait for at least one more close above the 20-day SMA before committing to a bullish narrative.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels on the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Bitcoin addresses
Interestingly, despite last week’s drop below $60,000, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC has not increased, potentially hinting at large speculators’ lack of appetite to buy Bitcoin at a discount. The same applies to the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USDT Dominance just failed and doing BTC a huge favor!On this chart we see a major development on the USDT Dominance (USDT.D). It formed its first ever Death Cross on the 5D time-frame, with the MA200 (orange trend-line) turning into Resistance since the start of February.
That has never happened in its history and as you can see, when USDT.D declines, Bitcoin (black trend-line) rallies, which has been doing so aggressively since early October 2023.
This is a sign that the current rally on BTCUSD might be far from over and if anything can even be much more aggressively than we initially thought.
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BITCOIN 1st green week after 4 red! Have we finally bottomed??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed the first green 1W candle following a streak of 4 red ones, so it has been the first week in almost 1 month. That alone is a strong bullish sign, especially on the very aggressive Channel Up on the 1W time-frame (chart on the left).
As you can see, every consolidation that is formed after a Higher High (red Rectangle) ends and transcends to the new Bullish Leg (green) when then first 1W candle is formed (circles). The previous (2) Higher Highs have been priced around the 2.786 Fibonacci extension, so the Channel's top and the Fib extension give us a projected Target Zone of $100k - $120k by the start of August.
Even on the lower 1D time-frame (chart on the right), we have the strongest possible bullish break-out confirmation as after BTC held the 1W MA20 (red trend-line) and rebounded, its 1D RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line and the following day the price itself broke above its own Lower Highs. This creates the probability for an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S), which technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level ($78000). The only confirmation left to make is to close above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which provided the last strong rejection on April 23.
So what do you think? Is this the start of a new strong rally for Bitcoin and if yes what target are you pursuing yourself? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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HBAR/USDT The main trend (the whole trading history). Pivot zoneLogarithm. The time frame is 1 week. An idea for understanding the underlying trend and cycles.
The coin is the 30th most capitalized coin according to coinmarketcap as of September 9 (9 11), 2023.
The large time interval and long history of the chart shows not only the cyclicality of the past, but also the more likely future. This idea makes it clear how important for the market (not only for this cryptocurrency) this time zone is, which will determine the further development of the long-term trend.
Many for some reason consider a separate altcoin separately from the whole market and are sure that its trend should be different from the general direction of the market (stock, bitcoin), this is an extremely wrong approach.
It is worth noting that quite a few large wallets of this cryptocurrency have been created over the past few months. Whether people accumulating this asset will be right or wrong, only time will tell. Everything will be decided in the coming months.
Line chart.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 3, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has completed our Inner Coin Dip 57200 and rebounded strongly with renewed strength. Currently, the main barrier to further upside move is marked at 64000. It is expected to experience a pullback to retest a Key Sup 58300, which will lead to renewed a Bull Stage movement targeting the Mean Res of 64000, 66900, and beyond.
ALT SEASON can start as early as next week and this is why.We frequently look at the altcoin market and very often look for clues on its dominance and market cap. A historic comparison of alts with Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles shows that alts bottom after Bitcoin, a lag which is natural considering that BTC is the market leader. Similarly it is possible for alts to rally when Bitcoin is correcting or consolidating.
Using Bitcoin's Halvings as a measure to separate pre and post-Halving phases, we can see that in the past two Cycles, alts have made a dump within the green zone following Bitcoin's Halving.
On this Cycle however, we see that very same dump having started since late December 2023, while Bitcoin rallied aggressively, which is in our opinion attributed to the ETF anticipation and then launch in January 2024. It is therefore very probable that this was the alt market's 'post-Halving dump'.
In any case, Alts have reached the bottom of their usual Bullish Megaphone that is historically formed when they bottom. It is therefore very probable to see the new Alt Season, which is when alts rally parabolically and naturally more aggressively than Bitcoin, starting as early as next week.
What do you think?
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BITCOIN testing the 1W MA20, most consistent Bull Cycle Support!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) dropped on the Fed Rate Decision day near the 1W MA20 (green trend-line), the closest it has been to it since the week of October 16 2023 when it broke above it. This level is of considerable important for BTC as it is probably the most consistent Support historically during Bull Cycles.
On this 1W time-frame analysis, you can see why that is. In the past 3 Cycles, this level broke and had 1W candles closing below it only 3 times. None during the 2015 - 2017 run, twice during 2019 - 2021 (one for correcting the Libra euphoria and the other the COVID flash crash) and one during the current 2023 - 2024 run (August - October).
As a result, this is technically the strongest Support that Bitcoin can meet before the ultimate 1W MA50 that is only closed below when the Bear Cycle starts. On top of the above, you can see the 1W CCI testing the top of its Bull Cycle Support Zone (green circle), resembling the tests of September 07 2020 and March 20 2017, both being the most optimal buy entries before the Parabolic Rallies begun.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin rebound on this critical 1W MA20 Support or close below it for the 4th time in 11 years?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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