MDTUSDT / 1W Fram analysiscan someone check my Analysis and give me some note if it is correct or I have done some mistakes.
thanks
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin is going steeper as markets grow extremely greedyNews of MicroStrategy adding 3,000 more Bitcoins to its stash sent the cryptocurrency soaring from around $52,000 to more than $57,000 in less than 24 hours (now, MicroStrategy holds about 193,000 BTC). This price action was accompanied by the RSI’s retracement to the overbought territory and a bullish reversal in MACD and Stochastic (on the daily timeframe). The next significant resistance levels lay at $59,250, $59,517, and $60,000 (psychological resistance). For now, the picture remains bullish for Bitcoin; however, caution is advised as markets are growing extremely greedy.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the weekly chart of BTCUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Interestingly, there is a lack of any significant support or resistance between $52,000 and $59,000, making a case for volatile oscillations in this range.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITCOIN on the quickest ATH test! Is this a narrative breaker?A few weeks ago we published an analysis regarding the importance of the .786 Fibonacci retracement level in cyclical terms, showing that historically, every time Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has closed a 1W candle above that Fib level, it never looked back and it always tested the All Time High (ATH) soon after.
Fast forward to today, BTC has already closed 2 straight 1W candles above that level. On this analysis on the 5D time-frame, we see the completion of the Golden Cross, which has always been present once on every Cycle, this time though formed the closest ever to the ATH.
In fact Bitcoin is 'only' another +20% away from its ATH and technically in should get hit within the next handful of weeks. In that case, we will have the quickest rise from a Cycle Bottom (RSI based) to ATH since the 2012 - 2013 Cycle, which was Bitcoin's first and of course not a representative Cycle sample as it was on its first years and naturally on a very aggressive rise due to being a brand new market on low cap. If we do count however from the actual November 2022 bottom (460 days up to now), then the current Cycle goes head-to-head even with 2012 - 2013 (it was 466 days until the ATH)!
In any case, this is a remarkable run for the market with still more than a month left until the new Halving! Of course much of this rally is attributed to the newly approved ETF, which is attracting historic attention and capital inflows on Wall Street. Just a side-note, it is worth paying attention to the 5D RSI. A Resistance Zone test can be a first bell that the top is in or very close.
But what do you think? How long before we test the ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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COTI leader for web3Look at that volume of COTI and some information here about it
COTI has designed a new block-less and miner-less blockchain. It solves the scalability issue of cryptocurencies and makes bitcoin look archaeic. COTI is a new block-less blockchain that removes miners. It is labelled ‘PayPal for the crypto world'.
COTI has architected a new blockchain based on a DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) protocol. DAG are block-less blockchains where there are no miners or blocks. Graphs are acyclic in nature and flow in a specific direction, which means that transactions cannot be duplicated and can confirm themselves automatically based on previous transactions. Therefore, there are no miners to spend time and charge fees to code to confirm transactions, allowing for virtually real-time and low-cost crediting of funds to the other party’s wallet.
Stability and Low Volatility: COTI aims for a stable value, which can be attractive to those concerned about fluctuations in the value of traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Scalability: COTI utilizes its proprietary technology called Trustchain, which enables fast and efficient transaction processing even at high volumes.
Low Transaction Fees: The COTI platform aims to reduce transaction fees compared to other cryptocurrencies and payment systems.
Security: COTI uses a combination of protocols to ensure secure and authentic transactions. It also includes elements to protect against fraud and attacks.
Decentralization: While COTI strives for stability, it still maintains some decentralization features that set it apart from traditional payment systems.
Fast Transactions: Thanks to zk-Rollups technology and optimizations within the platform, COTI can process transactions faster than some other cryptocurrencies.
Flexible Payment Solutions: COTI offers the ability to create various payment methods and solutions, allowing businesses and developers to build their own payment applications.
Smart Contract Support: COTI plans to implement smart contracts, opening the door to creating sophisticated payment scenarios and applications.
Innovative Technology: Trustchain, a technology developed by COTI, serves as the foundation for the platform and provides an innovative approach to solving transaction system issues.
Partnership Projects and Collaborations: COTI collaborates with various partners, which can bring new opportunities for utilizing the platform and developing new applications.
BITCOIN Is it about to 'Ride the Bollinger Wave'?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 3rd straight month that the 1M candle has touched the top of the Bollinger Bands (BB). At the same time the Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) is on the rise while the 1M MACD is well past its Bullish Cross.
When all those three catalysts took place together in the past, BTC has extended the rally on top of the BB, which is something we historically call 'Riding the Bollinger Wave'. Technically this should give at most a 2-month pull-back, which would of course be a buy opportunity, until the Cycle tops.
Will you continue buying every pull-back without fear? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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MDX/USDT - Mdex: Trend Reversal◳◱ On the $MDX/ CRYPTOCAP:USDT chart, the Trend Reversal pattern suggests indications that the trend may be gaining or losing strength. Traders might observe resistance around 0.072 | 0.0749 | 0.082 and support near 0.0649 | 0.0607 | 0.0536. Entering trades at 0.0731 could be strategic, aiming for the next resistance level.
◰◲ General info :
▣ Name: Mdex
▣ Rank: 596
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Huobipro, Gateio, Mexc, Hitbtc
▣ Category/Sector: Financial - Decentralized Exchanges
▣ Overview: None
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Mrkt Price: 0.0731 ₮
▣ 24HVol: 1,712,451.331 ₮
▣ 24H Chng: 8.136%
▣ 7-Days Chng: 19.39%
▣ 1-Month Chng: 29.32%
▣ 3-Months Chng: 15.24%
◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels :
◥ Resistance: 0.072 | 0.0749 | 0.082
◢ Support: 0.0649 | 0.0607 | 0.0536
◱◳ Indicators recommendation :
▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL
▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY
◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : STRONG_BUY
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30D: 1.58
▣ Last 90D: 0.49
▣ Last 1-Y: -0.32
▣ Last 3-Y: -0.31
◲◰ Volatility :
▣ Last 30D: 0.62
▣ Last 90D: 1.63
▣ Last 1-Y: 1.08
▣ Last 3-Y: 1.08
◳◰ Market Sentiment Index :
▣ News sentiment score is N/A
▣ Twitter sentiment score is 0.51 - Bullish
▣ Reddit sentiment score is N/A
▣ In-depth MDXUSDT technical analysis on Tradingview TA page
▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated!
◲ Disclaimer
Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk.
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OGN/USDT - Origin Protocol: Trend Reversal◳◱ On the $OGN/ CRYPTOCAP:USDT chart, the Trend Reversal pattern suggests a pause in volatility, potentially gearing up for a breakout. Traders might observe resistance around 0.1813 | 0.1941 | 0.2189 and support near 0.1565 | 0.1445 | 0.1197. Entering trades at 0.1739 could be strategic, aiming for the next resistance level.
◰◲ General info :
▣ Name: Origin Protocol
▣ Rank: 439
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Kucoin, Bybit, Huobipro, Gateio, Mexc
▣ Category/Sector: N/A
▣ Overview: Origin Protocol aims to create the sharing economy marketplaces.
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Mrkt Price: 0.1739 ₮
▣ 24HVol: 3,734,776.197 ₮
▣ 24H Chng: 1.163%
▣ 7-Days Chng: 2.70%
▣ 1-Month Chng: 15.01%
▣ 3-Months Chng: 30.15%
◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels :
◥ Resistance: 0.1813 | 0.1941 | 0.2189
◢ Support: 0.1565 | 0.1445 | 0.1197
◱◳ Indicators recommendation :
▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL
▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY
◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : BUY
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30D: 2.63
▣ Last 90D: 2.05
▣ Last 1-Y: 0.56
▣ Last 3-Y: 0.52
◲◰ Volatility :
▣ Last 30D: 0.53
▣ Last 90D: 0.77
▣ Last 1-Y: 1.13
▣ Last 3-Y: 1.52
◳◰ Market Sentiment Index :
▣ News sentiment score is N/A
▣ Twitter sentiment score is 0.75 - Bullish
▣ Reddit sentiment score is 0.63 - Bullish
▣ In-depth OGNUSDT technical analysis on Tradingview TA page
▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated!
◲ Disclaimer
Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk.
▣ Welcome to the home of charting big: TradingView
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AGLD/USDT - Adventure Gold: Super Trend◳◱ On the $AGLD/ CRYPTOCAP:USDT chart, the Super Trend pattern suggests indications that the trend may be gaining or losing strength. Traders might observe resistance around 1.5 | 1.598 | 1.829 and support near 1.269 | 1.136 | 0.905. Entering trades at 1.432 could be strategic, aiming for the next resistance level.
◰◲ General info :
▣ Name: Adventure Gold
▣ Rank: 385
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Kucoin, Bybit, Huobipro, Gateio, Mexc
▣ Category/Sector: N/A
▣ Overview: None
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Mrkt Price: 1.432 ₮
▣ 24HVol: 2,139,251.972 ₮
▣ 24H Chng: 3.319%
▣ 7-Days Chng: 5.88%
▣ 1-Month Chng: 38.72%
▣ 3-Months Chng: 55.00%
◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels :
◥ Resistance: 1.5 | 1.598 | 1.829
◢ Support: 1.269 | 1.136 | 0.905
◱◳ Indicators recommendation :
▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL
▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY
◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : STRONG_BUY
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30D: 6.90
▣ Last 90D: 2.05
▣ Last 1-Y: 1.22
▣ Last 3-Y: 0.36
◲◰ Volatility :
▣ Last 30D: 0.65
▣ Last 90D: 1.45
▣ Last 1-Y: 1.41
▣ Last 3-Y: 1.64
◳◰ Market Sentiment Index :
▣ News sentiment score is N/A
▣ Twitter sentiment score is 0.41 - Bearish
▣ Reddit sentiment score is N/A
▣ In-depth AGLDUSDT technical analysis on Tradingview TA page
▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated!
◲ Disclaimer
Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk.
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FTM/BTC - Fantom: Failure Swing◳◱ On the $FTM/ CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart, the Failure Swing pattern suggests momentum building up for a significant move. Traders might observe resistance around 0.00000841 | 0.00000871 | 0.0000094 and support near 0.00000772 | 0.00000733 | 0.00000664. Entering trades at 0.00000806 could be strategic, aiming for the next resistance level.
◰◲ General info :
▣ Name: Fantom
▣ Rank: 73
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Kucoin, Hitbtc
▣ Category/Sector: Infrastructure - Smart Contract Platforms
▣ Overview: Fantom, founded in 2018, is a Layer 1 project that uses a single consensus layer to support the creation of multiple execution chains. FTM, the project's native token, is used for payments, governance, and ongoing block rewards sent to validators and delegators who stake FTM. The network's independent consensus layer, called Lachesis, features a novel consensus mechanism developed by the Fantom Foundation dubbed the "Lachesis Protocol." Lachesis can provide security to multiple other layers, the first of which is Fantom's EVM-compatible smart contract chain called Opera. The project's goal is to host an ecosystem of execution layers while enabling them to feature fast and cost-efficient transactions derived from the benefits of the proprietary Lachesis Protocol.
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Mrkt Price: 0.00000806 ₿
▣ 24HVol: 27.467 ₿
▣ 24H Chng: 3.599%
▣ 7-Days Chng: 2.63%
▣ 1-Month Chng: 22.76%
▣ 3-Months Chng: 32.72%
◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels :
◥ Resistance: 0.00000841 | 0.00000871 | 0.0000094
◢ Support: 0.00000772 | 0.00000733 | 0.00000664
◱◳ Indicators recommendation :
▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL
▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY
◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : BUY
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30D: 3.83
▣ Last 90D: 1.55
▣ Last 1-Y: 0.10
▣ Last 3-Y: 0.68
◲◰ Volatility :
▣ Last 30D: 0.60
▣ Last 90D: 0.93
▣ Last 1-Y: 0.89
▣ Last 3-Y: 1.45
◳◰ Market Sentiment Index :
▣ News sentiment score is N/A
▣ Twitter sentiment score is 0.54 - Bullish
▣ Reddit sentiment score is 0.53 - Bullish
▣ In-depth FTMBTC technical analysis on Tradingview TA page
▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated!
◲ Disclaimer
Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk.
▣ Welcome to the home of charting big: TradingView
Benefit from a ton of financial analysis features, instruments and data. Have a look around, and if you do choose to go with an upgraded plan, you'll get up to $30.
Discover it here - affiliate link -
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Throughout this week's trading, Bitcoin has been showing a lot of gyration, with its price moving back and forth between two key levels: our Mean Resistance level of 52500/completed Coin Rally level of 53000, and newly created support at 50600 during this period indicating that the price has found some stability.
However, despite these developments, the price of Bitcoin may experience a further decline and test our Mean Support level of 49700. If this happens, it could be an opportunity for traders to buy at a lower price before the coin takes off to retest Mean Res 52500, completed Coin Rally 53000, and galop to new highs.
BITCOIN Below the 4H MA50. Where does it go from here?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has broken 3 days ago below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 weeks and so far remains under it, unable to regain the bullish momentum of the first half of February. But how bad can that be? Does it jeopardize the long-term bullish trend?
For now not. Even though the February 15 High was technically a rejection on the Higher Highs trend-line that started on December 05 2023, the medium-term pattern remains a 1-month Channel Up. That pattern is similar to the Channel Up from October 13 2023 to December 17 2023, which broke sideways after a 1D candle closing below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The 4H MA100 is currently at 49656, with additional support levels Support 1 (48400) and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (47800), which provided the necessary support on the December 11 2023 Low.
As a result, we have a strong candidate zone as the new Support Base that can technically extend the bullish trend of the Channel Up. The short-term target is the Higher Highs trend-line at 55000 and if we get a 1D candle closing above it, Channel Up extension to its top at 60000.
Note that the 4H RSI offers a very strong buy signal on its 30.00 oversold barrier. Every time it was hit in the last several months, the price rebounded (even in the cases January 13, 14 and 18, when it was just short-term rebounds).
But what do you think? Will BTC provide a bullish extension on the current Channel Up? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Alikze → #MAV | The bottom of the ascending channelAfter touching the target, according to the analysis of the previous post ( here ), it is currently moving in an upward channel, which is placed on the support of the previous ceiling and also at the bottom of the channel. If it registers a green candle above 65 cents and exits the corner of concentration, the first target of that supply zone will be the range of 78 cents, and then, if the supply zone breaks, its next target will be 87 cents.
🟩Sup: 0.65
⛳️Tp 1:0.78
⛳️ Tp2 :0.87
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What to know about past Bitcoin halvingsBitcoin halving is an event that halves the rate at which new Bitcoins are introduced to a network (or mined). This event occurs approximately every four years or after 210,000 blocks have been mined; as a result, each halving reduces the reward given to miners by half and mimics a concept known as the hardening of a currency (meaning it is harder to extract it over time, like gold, for example). Considering one such event is approaching in the next two months, we would like to look at past halving periods. The first halving occurred on 28th November 2012, when the block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Interestingly, Bitcoin gained about 27% from its lows on 27th October 2012 until one day before the first halving; in the next 30 days after halving, it gained another 10%. In the 90 days after the event, Bitcoin rose nearly 159%; one year after the first halving, Bitcoin was up an astounding 8,334%.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows Bitcoin in 2012 and early 2013. The yellow arrow indicates the date of the first halving.
About 30 days before the second halving, Bitcoin was on a similar upside trajectory as during the first halving cycle, gaining approximately 14% (though the run-up was slightly more than 34% at some point). However, in the next 24 days after the second halving, Bitcoin lost nearly one-third of its value before rebounding; 30 days after the second halving, it was down only about 5% (measured from the opening price on the day of the second halving). In the 90 days after the event, Bitcoin was down almost 8% (which coincides with the time it started to reverse to the upside). In one year after the second halving, Bitcoin was up 284%.
Illustration 1.02
The image above illustrates BTCUSD on the daily time frame in 2016. The yellow arrow indicates the date of the second halving when the block reward was reduced to 12.5 BTC.
The third Bitcoin halving took place on 11th May 2020. It was preceded by a massive (and rapid) selloff in stock and cryptocurrency markets due to the start of the coronavirus pandemic earlier that year. From a peak on 20th February 2020 until a low on 13th March 2020, Bitcoin dropped more than 63% (in less than 30 days). From its lows in March, Bitcoin soared by 126% until the day of halving (yet it was still lower than at its peak in February). Bitcoin’s performance in the 30 days after the third halving was about 9%, and in the 90 days after the event, it was about 40%; one year after the halving, Bitcoin was up 565%.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates the third Bitcoin halving in 2020 when the block reward was reduced to 6.25 BTC.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITCOIN New rally about to start! Similarities with 2020/21.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has rebounded strongly since the 39000 Low and has left the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) significantly behind, with many wondering if a correction back to it is due. That would technically be reasonable and an optimal level to add more buys but it is not necessary to happen. A simple comparison with the 2020/ 2021 Bull Phase (right chart) offers critical insight on a potential rally structure.
** Fibonacci levels and CCI **
As you can see (both charts are on the 1D time-frame), during the 2020/21 rally BTC pulled back below the 1D MA50 only after it broke above the $60k level. Even during the short-term correction within the 6.0 - 5.0 Fibonacci extension levels (dotted Channel Down), the 1D MA50 held. The 1D CCI pattern since the start of 2023 has been identical so far to BTC's price action since the March 2020 COVID bottom.
** The structure of today vs 2020/21 **
The symmetry between the two is remarkable, they both started on a (dotted) Channel Down that broke below the 1D MA50, then a consolidation phase in the form of an Arc within our base 1.0 - 0.0 Fib levels and then a rally to the more recent (blue circle) consolidation within the 3.0 - 2.0 Fib extensions. That is the structure that the February rally left behind and if 2021 continues to be our guide, it should now start a new rally first to the 4.0 Fib (65000) and then to the 6.0 Fib (a little above 100000) for the new dotted Channel Down correction.
** Is such strong rally so fast realistic? **
Of course $100k by April would mean reaching those levels by the Halving event, which seems unrealistic (of course that is relative) even with the current ETF inflows which are surpassing every prior estimate. But of course it is a solid framework to have as a guide even if the current Cycle proves to be less aggressive than the previous and symmetry starts breaking.
But what do you think? Is it possible for Bitcoin to continue replicating 2021 and reach 100k so fast? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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A few developments to watch out forBitcoin has held relatively steady above $50,000 for about five days. In the meantime, the volume has kept falling, and the number of large speculators (Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC) has marched higher (there was a slight drop in the figure yesterday, though). Simultaneously, the RSI has continued to trend in the overbought territory on the daily chart, and the MACD has begun to flatten. A breakdown in the RSI below 70 points will be bearish, and the same applies to a crossover between the MACD line and the signal line. Similarly, a case for a pullback in Bitcoin could be strengthened in the case of a major weakness in the stock market; as Bitcoin stays highly correlated with stocks (especially tech) and still behaves much like a risk asset, the quickly changing sentiment in the stock market might be worth monitoring. Nevertheless, the daily time frame remains bullish for now (with signs of weakening momentum).
Illustration 1.01
The volume has been declining across various crypto exchanges. Generally, the declining volume accompanying the rising price is a questionable development.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Interestingly, Bitcoin has not yet taken out resistance from the prior bull market at $52,956 (established on 7th September 2021).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
singularitynet - AGIX 🔵1st trial 🟠2nd trial🔴FAKEOUT🚨AGIX
🔵1st trial to break volume resistance
🟠2nd trial to break volume resistance
🔴FAKEOUT🚨
🔵1st trial to break volume resistance
🟠2nd trial to break volume resistance
🔴next FAKEOUT❓👀
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
FILUSD Just flashed the strongest long-term bullish signal!Filecoin (FILUSD) closed last week's 1W candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the January 10 2022 1W candle! That alone is a major long-term bullish signal that validates the transition to the Bull Cycle. A further closing above the Lower Highs trend-line, would confirm the bullish break-out signal without any additional hurdles in front of it.
This basically resembles the February 10 2020 candle of the previous Cycle that closed above the 1W MA100. As you can see, it failed to close immediately above the Lower Highs and as a result pulled-back to the historic Support Zone (red) before starting the sustainable Parabolic Rally (of course that was during the March 2020 COVID market crash). A Bullish Cross between the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA100 took place. That's something we are still missing on the current Cycle but estimates show we can get one by the end of April - beginning of May.
As a result, we are prepared to buy if the price breaks and closes above the Lower Highs trend-line and target the bottom of the Symmetrical Resistance Zone at 23.000. If rejected, expect a pull-back near the 1W MA50 and then start of the Parabolic Rally to test the 126.000 All Time High.
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BITCOIN just made the most important 1W closing of this Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made last week a closing that is going under the radar by the market. The closing of the last 1W candle was made above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2021 All Time High (ATH). But why is that of such a significant value? Because every time in BTC's history it closed a 1W candle above the 0.786 Fib of the ATH, the price never closed below it again.
In fact we can claim that for every past Cycle, such a 1W closing is the final confirmation for the start of the Parabolic Rally. It has to be noted that after such closing, Bitcoin made new ATH in maximum 2 months! That suggests we could see a new Historic High at the time of the Halving! Are just starting the new rally?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN: Pullback before another rally?Hi Traders!
The trend is bullish on the main time frames, but today we will only follow intraday chart (Log Scale). That said, from a technical perspective, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is forming a 12345 bullish impulse structure, and we are currently in wave 3. If our analysis is correct, Bitcoin could trigger a corrective structure (ABC or ABCDE Pattern) in short term before developing another rally. On 1H chart we showed the support area and the potential amplitude of wave 5.
OUR LONG TERM ANALYSIS
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Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The chart analysis on February 9th shows how powerful the Trade Selector System is to this Trading View platform. Bitcoin has completed the second phase of the reignited rebound extension phase, also known as the "Outer Coin Rally 53000". Currently, this analysis shows the downside price action is in pivotal squeeze mode; it is expected to rebound and retest Mean Res 52500. Moreover, completing the Outer Coin Rally 53000 from this spot is imminent.
Market is growing reminiscent of Autumn 2021A few weeks ago, we noted that the mania in the cryptocurrency market seemed to reach levels coinciding with the summer of 2021. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin’s price increases, the narrative about the “complacent plateau” and the never-ending rally grows stronger as well, making the current time reminiscent of late 2021. As a result of the massive rally, investors in stocks and crypto alike seem to have become numb to potential risks markets face in 2024. It is becoming increasingly apparent that there will be no six rate cuts this year with the accelerating inflation in the United States. The FED will have to keep monetary conditions tight for somewhat longer than many investors have initially anticipated (or until something breaks). By doing so, the FED will further slow down the economy and increase the chances of an economic accident (especially as the lagging effects of previous hikes do not seem to show up yet on the surface). Since such an accident would negatively affect the stock market’s performance, it would also negatively affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (considering the strong positive correlation between the two). Bitcoin continues to behave much like a risk asset, which only increases the odds of a significant decline in the case of a general stock market selloff. With that said, we are growing increasingly nervous about the overall situation in the market and think that Bitcoin might be approaching a top before a major trend reversal.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays daily and weekly graphs of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows show slight similarities in the price structures between these two charts (of course, similarities are subjective and debatable).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Exploring the Day of the Week Effect in CryptocurrenciesHey, crypto traders and enthusiasts! Have you ever wondered if the day of the week could sway your crypto earnings?
Well, a fascinating study from 2019 titled "The day of the week effect in the cryptocurrency market" by Guglielmo Maria Caporalea and Alex Plastunb decided to dive into this question.
The study zeroes in on some of the big names in crypto - Bitcoin, LiteCoin, Ripple, and Dash. Caporalea et al. decided to analyze data from 2013 to 2017. Here’s the result:
The key takeaway from the research is that Bitcoin exhibits a unique pattern of higher returns on Mondays compared to other days, thus showing the “Day of the Week effect.” This anomaly was, however, not observed in other major cryptocurrencies like LiteCoin, Ripple, and Dash.
While a trading strategy based on this Monday effect in Bitcoin shows profit potential, it's important to approach it cautiously. There’s a lot of variability in annual results and a lack of consistency in the broader cryptocurrency market.
█ The Day of the Week Effect
It’s like a financial urban legend – stocks behave differently depending on the day of the week. Weird, right? But there's some solid data behind it. For example, it's been observed that Mondays often bring the blues with lower returns, while Fridays can feel like a party with higher ones. Think of it as the market's weekly routine, just like some of us are sluggish on Mondays and supercharged by Fridays.
So, why does this happen? There are a bunch of theories.
Some say it's because of the accumulation of news over the weekend that investors react to on Monday. Others argue it's due to the trading patterns of institutional investors. It's still a bit of a mystery, which makes it so intriguing.
█ Methodology
So, how did the researchers determine if cryptocurrencies have a favorite day of the week?
The Data Dive
The team sifted through daily data from 2013 to 2017 for Bitcoin, LiteCoin, Ripple, and Dash, provided by CoinMarketCap. That's a hefty chunk of info, covering years of ups, downs, and sideways movements. Why these years, you ask? This period saw some of the most significant developments in crypto, making it a gold mine for data analysts.
Crunching the Numbers
The study used a mix of average analysis and more complex statistical tests to scrutinize the data.
Average Analysis: This essentially looks at the mean returns for each day of the week across the data set. It's like zooming out to see the broader pattern.
For example, they calculated the average return for Bitcoin on Mondays, Tuesdays, and so on, then compared these averages to see if any day stood out.
Parametric Tests:
Student's t-test: Used to compare the means between two groups. In this context, it might be used to compare the average Monday returns to the average Tuesday returns for Bitcoin. It assumes that the data follows a normal distribution, a common assumption for large data sets.
ANOVA (Analysis of Variance): This test steps it up a notch. It's used when you have more than two groups to compare – like comparing the average returns of all weekdays. ANOVA checks if there's a statistically significant difference between these group means.
Non-Parametric Tests:
Kruskal–Wallis Test: This is the non-parametric counterpart to ANOVA. It's used when you can't assume the data is normally distributed. It ranks the data and compares these ranks across groups. For example, it would rank all the Monday returns, Tuesday returns, and so on, then see if these rankings differ significantly across the week.
Mann–Whitney Test: Similar to the Student's t-test but for non-parametric data. It compares two independent groups, like Monday versus Wednesday returns, without assuming a normal distribution.
These parametric and non-parametric tests provide a rigorous examination of the data. They help determine if there are differences in returns on different days of the week and whether these differences are statistically significant and not just due to chance.
█ Findings and Analysis
In the study focusing on the day-of-the-week effect in the cryptocurrency market, the key findings were:
⚪ Bitcoin's Monday Effect:
A notable trend was observed in Bitcoin, where it displayed consistently higher returns on Mondays than on other days. This suggests a unique pattern where the beginning of the week seems more favorable for Bitcoin investments.
A trading simulation based on this Monday effect indicated a 60% chance of generating a profit from 2013 to 2017. This highlights the potential profitability of adapting trading strategies to capitalize on this pattern.
⚪ Other Cryptocurrencies:
The study found no significant day-of-the-week effect in other major cryptocurrencies like LiteCoin, Ripple, and Dash. Their returns did not show a consistent pattern tied to specific weekdays, indicating more randomness in their daily returns.
These findings imply that while Bitcoin exhibits a distinct weekly return pattern, other major cryptocurrencies do not follow the same trend.
This insight could be pivotal for traders focusing on Bitcoin, suggesting reevaluating trading strategies around weekends and Mondays. However, the lack of a consistent pattern suggests a need for different trading approaches for other cryptocurrencies.
█ Conclusion
The big takeaway is that Bitcoin shows a unique 'day of the week' effect, particularly on Mondays, but this isn't a universal crypto trend.
For your trading strategies, this means there's potential in timing your Bitcoin moves, but always keep an eye on the broader market dynamics. Remember, the crypto world is fast-paced and ever-changing, so continual research and analysis are your best friends.
Stay curious, stay informed, and who knows what other patterns you might uncover!
█ Reference
Caporale, G. M., & Plastun, A. (2019). The day of the week effect in the cryptocurrency market. Finance Research Letters, 31, 258-269.
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Disclaimer
Our results are approximate. We encourage you to test the assumption yourself. We do not guarantee that you will get the same results. This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
VETUSD On the verge of an enormous rally.VeChain (VETUSD) is making this week (1W) a triple bullish break-out as it broke above December's Resistance, the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line that started on the April 2021 All Time High (ATH) and the 1W MA100 (orange trend-line), which is the first time above it ever. A closing above the latter, confirms the beginning of a new long-term Bullish Phase for VET.
This resembles the break-out on the June 08 2020 1W candle, which extended above the 0.786 Fibonacci level measuring from the first Lower High and after a pull-back to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it made the ATH just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, our target on a 6-month horizon is 0.14500, which is at the bottom of the Lower High Resistance Zone.
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