AVAXUSD Ready for a bullish break-outAvalanche (AVAXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern for the past 6 months and is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The same kind of test after a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence was performed in AVAX's previous Channel Down on January 09 2023. Observe the perfect symmetry on the RSI levels of the two dates. When the price closed above the 1D MA50, it initiated a massive rise on the next candle that easily broke through the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and peaked a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will buy the break-out and initially target the 1D MA100 at 11.000. If it breaks above the 1D MA200, we will buy that 2nd break-out and target the 0.616 Fib at 15.500.
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Cryptocurrencies
GALAUSD: Next 1D MA50 break can deliver a massive rally.GALAUSD is testing today the 1D MA50 for the first time in two months on a green technical 1D outlook (RSI = 60.296, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 46.201). Being through all 2023 inside a Channel Down similar to 2022, we can argue that the next 1D MA50 cross over (like the 1W RSI cross over the MA line) can provide a rally similar to January's. That will be our trigger level and will target the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 0.04400).
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BITCOIN Alt season started and going all the way to the Halving!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may have found Support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded but for basically the last 6 months it has been trading sideways/ consolidating. On the other hand, this hasn't stopped the altcoin market (orange trend-line depicting dominance) from breaking above its Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line 6 weeks ago. Historically, when alts broke above that distinct Lower Highs trend-line in previous Cycles, BTC has always been above the 1W MA50 and (with the exception of the COVID crash) never lost it.
We have approximately 154 days/ 22 weeks until the next Halving (no 4) and on the same time range in the past 2 Cycles, the alt season had alreay started. Typically this extends to at least the Halving event. On Halving 2 it saw a huge price spike while during Halving 3 it had a steady rise that continued even after the event. We can therefore draw the conclusion that the alt season has just started and has at least another 5 months of growth ahead of it (until Halving 4). At the same time, BTC should stay supported by the 1W MA50.
So what do you think? Have we broken aggressively into a long alt season? If so, are you going light on Bitcoin and heavy on alts? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BSVUSD: This move has potential but don't get excited yet.BSVUSD reached the 1W MA50 as it started the week on a strong bullish note, turning overbought on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 81.503, MACD = 0.780, ADX = 33.231). We may not see the usual technical relief pullback that follows after overbought conditions as the 1W MACD just formed a Bullish Cross and remains under the 0.000 neutral level. This suggests that in case of a breakout, the upside potential is big. Target the R1 level (TP = 56.450), which is the strongest Resistance currently as it is where the 1W MA100 is headed to.
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Bitcoin's market share is set to increaseIn the previous article on Bitcoin, we discussed the possibility of another fake breakout above the resistance at $26,800. We stated that we expected the rally to be bought by retail, which seems to be confirmed by the latest data from LookIntoBitcoin, showing the number of small Bitcoin addresses (with balances below 100 BTC) increasing and the number of large addresses (with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC) falling (in the past few days). To keep the bearish thesis alive (about BTCUSD dropping to $24,000), we want to see Bitcoin fail in breaking above the resistance near $27,500. In addition, we want to see RSI, Stochastic, and MACD start flattening on the daily time frame and eventually start pointing to the downside. Furthermore, we want to see the number of large Bitcoin addresses trending flat or down, suggesting whales are still not buying (at least outside the futures market).
To reevaluate our view, we want to see Bitcoin march higher, breaking above $27,500 and then $28,142 (accompanied by the growth in the number of large Bitcoin addresses). On top of that, we want to see all mentioned technical indicators continue rising on the daily time frame, with MACD fully breaking above zero (and holding ground above this level).
Now, to move on to a different topic, what caught our attention in the past few days is that the recent jump in the price of Bitcoin was once again accompanied by news about Bitcoin Spot ETF (in reference to Gary Gensler’s testimony in front of U.S. Congress) and the government shutdown in the USA. Interestingly, a similar uptick occurred among many altcoins (while Bitcoin’s dominance decreased and USD strengthened). In fact, we would say that the USD has been behaving unusually strongly recently, similar to how it behaved during last year’s stock and cryptocurrency market selloff. That is raising our suspicion, and we think that we might be seeing merely a deceitful move higher (in altcoins), intended to suck in retail and create exit liquidity for big players who seek to cash out altcoins into Bitcoin and Bitcoin into fiat money. As a result, we are on high alert.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD. The yellow arrow highlights MACD’s attempt to enter a bullish area above the midpoint; if successful, it will be slightly bullish in the short term.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XRP is not out of the woodsAbout two weeks ago, we warned XRP would likely test its support near $0.43. However, this has not been the case so far, and XRP moved from around $0.48 to $0.52. Despite this upward movement, we believe the retest is still due to happen. In fact, we would not be surprised to see XRP continue lower than that, being dragged by the rest of the cryptocurrency market. To reassess our view (or even abandon it), we want XRP to break above $0.54 and broader strength in the crypto market. We will update our thoughts with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XRP and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITCOIN Cycle unlocked with Angle Theory! Can we reach 140-150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having a strong break-out day on the 1D time-frames and below but this is only on the short-term. Still it is a step in the right direction on the long-term after trading sideways in the last 6 months within the 1W MA50 (Support) and 1W MA100 (Resistance).
** Cycle Peaks and angles **
Today's study brings you the a multi-cycle depiction on the 1W time-frame of BTC since the peak of its very first Cycle at $32. Those that followed ($1250, $19800, $69800) all made contact with the Logarithmic top Growth Curve, a historic pattern that is holding since BTC's inception.
It appears that every peak-to-peak measurement is roughly half of the previous peak. The automatic angle measurements on the (red) dotted lines may differ based on the screen's display and how the horizontal/ vertical axis move but on ours (and the screenshot of the idea) goes like this: 38°, 19°, 10°. We estimate a 6° angle for the new Cycle peak on the log Growth Curve.
** Next Cycle peak? **
If we take all previous Cycles and apply them to fit the new price action towards the top of the Log Growth Curve, that 6° line gives a projected Cycle peak within $140000 - 150000. It is also interesting to apply the same angle principle to the Cycle bottoms. We can see that those (green dotted lines) can also roughly be half of what the previous bottom was (though the variations are higher). The new bottom is estimated to be on a 7° angle.
Remarkably the angles of the tops and bottoms of each Cycle have approximately the same measurements, indicating that despite being logarithmic within a curve, they can be viewed separately in Channels.
So what do you think? Can Bitcoin reach $140-150k during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: The Huge Pivot Zone will decide its fate.Bitcoin has completed seven weeks of trading inside the 1W MA200 - 1W MA50 range. It is no surprise that the 1W technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 50.743, MACD = 460.600, ADX = 25.554) as while the 1W MA50 has been supporting, the 1W MA100 has been resisting. The latter hasn't closed a 1W candle over it since April 25th and is at the moment the top priority to break for Bitcoin.
On a greater scale though, the true Resistance to cross is 31,800 which is the top of what we call the "Huge Pivot Zone" (25,400 is the Support). The price hasn't closed any 1W candle outside of this Zone since it entered it on the week of March 13th 2023. In fact we can go as back as January 2021 and see the importance of this Pivot Zone. In 2022 there hasn't been any 1W candle closing under the top (31,800) of the Pivot Zone. Then in 2022 up until March 2023 this became a rejection level, closing all candles under it, while the Cycle bottom was being formed.
With the Bull Cycle HL trendline still supporting (along with the 1W MA50) and the price approaching the 1W MA100, we will soon have a strong breakout signal at hand. But if this is accompanied by a break over 31,800 then we have great chances of going into the April 2024 Halving with prices above $40,000. Likewise a crossing under the HL and the 25,400 Support can break the Bull Cycle blueprint and take us into uncharted (bearish) territory.
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BTC TA and Altcoin Trades Update
Traders,Bitcoin is now once again slightly bullishly biased. It has now absorbed the 26,300-26,500 price sufficiently and more accumulation has occurred. Additionally, we can observe a break to the upside of a descending TL and retest. Finally, the RSI is showing bullish divergence.However, with the threat of a gov’t shutdown looming, all bets are off when it comes to TA and anything can happen. To help mitigate potential future loss, I have moved all my stops up to break even in all of my altcoin trades which are all showing profit. Compound has been the big winner here for me.
One of my followers has noted that a government shutdown netted a 20% loss on Bitcoin in the past. I have not confirmed this yet as I have been traveling all week and have had little time to chart but I will note that if this is true and history repeats itself, then a gov’t shutdown would take us to that long-anticipated CME futures gap to be filled at 20k. I think this is something we should note and pay attention to. Should any of our major supports break, especially 25,200, then we’ll almost certainly drop to 20k again.
Best,
Stew
ETHEREUM Potential DownsidesHey Traders. in today's trading session we are monitoring ETHUSDT for a selling opportunity around 1730 zone, ETHEREUM is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1730 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Whales not nearly as bullish as retailYesterday, when Bitcoin approached the resistance at $26,800, we warned that another fakeout to the upside might be upon us due to the whales liquidating their positions and redistributing coins to retail. Shortly after that, Bitcoin broke above the resistance for a very brief time and then fell to around $26,100. Interestingly, the move-up coincided with Gary Gensler testifying in front of U.S. Congress, which media portrayed as U.S. Congress pushing the SEC to speed up approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. That is a perfect example of what we have been talking about in regard to any announcement of news related to Bitcoin Spot ETF (with Bitcoin initially soaring in response and later giving up gains). Though, in our view, each new announcement seems to have a lesser impact on the price than the previous one. In addition to that, there was no change in the number of Bitcoin addresses with the balance exceeding 1,000 BTC, which seems to confirm our assessment of fakeout and redistribution. Consequently, we have no reason to change our bias and stay bearish on Bitcoin. In order to maintain this stance, we want to see technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic decline on the daily time chart and a bearish crossover in MACD on the weekly time frame. On top of that, in the case of another fakeout (if it happens), we want to see Bitcoin struggle to break above the resistance near $27,500.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of RSI. A breakout below the support will bolster a bearish case in the short term.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the weekly chart of MACD that is approaching the midpoint. A breakout below the midpoint will be strongly bearish for Bitcoin.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITCOIN First close above the 1D MA50 in 2 months?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again today and is very close to registering the first 1D candle closing above it since August 01. At the same time it broke above the Lower Highs of the Falling Wedge pattern that started on the July 13 High.
If it succeeds today in closing above it, we hav e high probabilities of seeing the bullish extension of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) we discussed last week materializing. The target extends as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci at 30000. The short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 28000. Interestingly enough Resistance 1 (28150) and Resistance 2 (30220) are near those two respective targets adding to their importance as supply levels.
Note that the 1D RSI has been on a strong Bullish Divergence since August 18 (candles on Lower Lows). That is why the IH&S has increased probabilities of breaking above the 2-month Falling Wedge pattern.
So what do you think? Is it time to break to the upside for good? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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PEPEUSD Can rise aggressively if the Falling Wedge breaks.Pepe (PEPEUSD) is trading within a Falling Wedge ever since the first sell-off and sits below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which made a double rejection on the latest Lower High on August 14 2023.
The 1D MACD is already on a strong post Bullish Cross sequence so the slightest break-out, preferably above the 1D MA50, will be a buy opportunity. The first and more reachable target will be a symmetrical with the Wedge's first rise at +128%, targeting 0.0000013500. If then the 1D MA100 holds as a Support, we will re-buy and target Resistance 2 at 0.0000019000.
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ETHUSDETH is short term in a triangle squeeze, been touching the upper trend line 4-8 times first time August 29th. If it breaks out, you have the next major resistance at about 1660.
I'm just gonna say this; it doesn't matter so much how we trade; it matters more how we manage risk/reward
. I think in anything we do, it's important to trust ourselves, and that our setups work - too much doubting can often lead to loss, as it leads to instability of mind. With faith, anything is possible! :)
Start your day with positive affirmations about yourself and your life. You can do this! :)
There's a line in "Waterfalls" I really like, by Lisa Left Eye Lopez
"Dreams are hopeless aspirations in hopes of coming true - believe in yourself!, the rest is up to me and you."
I would add, "Believe in God", but it's also important to believe in yourself, absolutely.
"I believe I can fly" is another of my favorite songs ever. And without taking action, I assure you that very little will happen - and if you don't have enough faith, you will never act. That is why it's important to have a strong belief in God, yourself, and your possibilities; if not, fear and doubt will dominate your thoughts instead of faith and courage.
You can build up your faith and positive thinking by practicing being aware of the thoughts you allow in your mind. If something does not align with positivity and hope, cast out those thoughts, and replace them with good thougts that bring you a positive outlook on your life and situation.
Stay healthy, stay blessed, take care of your temple (body).
-thomchris
MKRUSD: Enormous upside potential, can hit 2,700.MKRUSD turned overbought (RSI = 71.689, MACD = 59.900, ADX = 32.319) as it extended the rally that basically started on August 25th. The wider pattern is a Channel Up and the current run carries similar characteristic with the first run of this Channel. The RSI patterns are identical and symmetry wise we have started the rise to the third peak of this sequence. We will first target the 3.0 Fibonacci extension (TP1 = 2,100) and on the next pullback, the top of the Channel Up on a +179% rise (TP2 = 2,700).
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