BITCOIN Will the Channel Up hold or has the Fed condemned it?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having an impressive sustainable price action within the Channel Up pattern since November 12, which despite yesterday's Fed fueled pull-back, is still holding. If it holds, it may follow the same pattern that it did exactly 1 year ago.
As you see, it was again in November 2023 that it traded within a Channel Up, which was supported by the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since October 11. After it broke out, the price reached the 7.0 Fibonacci extension level from the October low, before correcting again.
The situation is very similar today, the 4H MA200 is also holding since Oct 11, the price also formed a 4H Golden Cross on Sep 18, while both fractals started their impressive rallies around the same date (Sep 06 2023 and Sep 11 2024 respectively).
As a result, if the 4H MA200 holds, we can expect BTC to target the 7.0 Fib ext next at $135000.
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Cryptocurrency
XRPUSD Take this correction as an opportunity to buy to $7.00XRPUSD is correcting violently today after Powell's remarks on just 2 rate cuts in 2025 against the previous expectation of 4.
This is however still a correction within the technical limits of the huge rally that XRP had since the U.S. elections.
Don't let this distract you from the longer picture. This Bull Cycle is still identical to 2017.
Symmetrically, we are just on the 0.382 Fibonacci Resistance, which is where XRP corrected in April 2017 and then once the pullback finished, rebounded to the next Resistance, the 0.618 Fib.
Buy and target $7.00 (the 0.618 Fib).
Previous chart:
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KIMA/USDT THE 100% BREAKKIMA/USDT Analysis: Potential Break Ahead
Kima as a new coin shows an interesting view that can have a break in the coming time.
we will follow the trend with updates.
This will seen as a high-risk coin since it is new, and manages always risk in case your study shows you to choice this coin.
XRP/USDT THE RETURN OF $1 AFTER LONG TIME..XRP seems to have a low time frame and a high time frame to make a new trend change.
XRP has been a long time in the breakdown.. This year seems XRP to add a new change in the trend for the first time.
On the low time frame, XRP seems to make a new increase level, which can allow XRP to return to the first target of $ 0,74 followed by a target up the $1
We will follow XRP
TradeCityPro | THETAUSDT Has the Market Turned Bearish?👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Let’s analyze a day when the market experienced slight corrections, with some coins recording red candles and traders feeling FOMO, moving away from the market. This is the best time to review triggers.
🌟 Bitcoin Overview
As always, let’s start with Bitcoin analysis. In the one-hour timeframe, we are witnessing bearish candles, which are merely rejections of the new ATH. Such corrections are not concerning as they come with reduced volume.
Bitcoin dominance has also been ranging, causing slight corrections across all altcoins. Coins bearish in their Bitcoin pairs have seen more significant declines, while those bullish in their Bitcoin pairs are showing better resilience.
📅 Weekly Timeframe
In the weekly timeframe, THETA is one of the coins that previously had a strong movement. Earlier in 2024, it hit a new high compared to 2023, bouncing back from the 1.028 support level, which gives it a better edge than many other coins.
Recently, after breaking the 1.667 resistance, which was our entry trigger, it has reached the early 2024 resistance level and is now reacting to it. Following the correction and red candles, the declining volume indicates a positive sign for the upward trend.
The RSI is pulling back toward the overbought zone. If the RSI climbs back up from this level, we can anticipate another sharp move.
If you entered with our trigger, it’s reasonable to hold your position for now as you have a solid entry point. For those looking to enter again, either wait for a correction or buy after breaking the 3.136 level with a large stop loss at 1.667. However, this would be a riskier entry.
🌞 Daily Timeframe
In the daily timeframe, after breaking out of the accumulation box between 1.543 and 3.136, THETA has experienced a 100% upward movement, providing an excellent profit opportunity.
Throughout this uptrend, we’ve seen an increase in volume, which has subsequently decreased during corrections. Even when red candles appear, the reduction in volume is a positive signal for the coin’s long-term trajectory.
Based on Fibonacci levels, potential supports are at 2.349, 2.011, and 1.543. After confirmation at any of these levels, long positions can be entered. For continued momentum, breaking the 3.136 level with a stop loss at 2.349 can be considered a riskier option.
⏰ 4-Hour Timeframe
In the four-hour timeframe, the coin is moving within a short-term box between 2.534 and 2.749, accompanied by reduced volume and consolidation. This suggests that a breakout is likely soon.
📈 Long Position Trigger
breaking the 2.749 level could trigger a trade, as the 3.136 breakout is expected to be led by whales. However, if you miss the 2.749 breakout, 3.136 can also serve as an entry.
📉 Short Position Trigger
they are not currently recommended. However, a break below the 2.534 level could offer a risky short setup. Ensure small stop losses and quick profit-taking, as extended downside seems unlikely.
💡 BTC Pair Insight
In the Bitcoin pair, THETA is just starting to show strength. It has recently reached its weekly resistance level and has a long way to go before its ATH. Once it establishes a higher low and breaks the 0.00003042 resistance, it could begin a strong upward movement. Stay patient and avoid FOMO if you’ve missed this move. Many other coins in the channel have not yet triggered their entries.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
ETHBTC Is Sitting At Strong Monthly SupportETHBTC cross pair has been trading bearish for the last two years or so due to Bitcoin dominance, but now that Bitcoin dominance is slowing down and ALTcoin dominance kicking in, seems like we are in the ALTseason and ETHBTC pair may see a recovery soon.
ETHBTC chart can be actually still trading in a correction within uptrend. It’s right now sitting at interesting and strong support area when looking at the monthly chart. We have strong monthly trendline and impulsive five waves up, followed by a three-wave A-B-C correction into an important 67,8% Fibo retracement, which is a bullish pattern from technical and Elliott wave perspective. We are actually already in the ALTseason and if ETHBTC pair is really about to bounce and starts recovering soon, then ALTseason may resume and Ethereum can be one of the strongest.
TradeCityPro | ENS : Navigating Critical Levels👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro!
In this analysis, I’ll evaluate ENS across the daily and 4-hour timeframes. This Web3 project offers an innovative service allowing users to purchase wallet domains, making it a standout in its sector.
📅 Daily Timeframe: Pullback to the Critical Zone
On the daily timeframe, ENS has been trading within a broad range since early 2024, oscillating between $12.44 and $32. Despite the large range and significant price volatility, the market hasn’t established a clear trend, repeatedly moving from the bottom to the top of this box.
📈 Recently, alongside Bitcoin’s ATH breakout, ENS broke through the $20.92 resistance, which marked the Medium Wave Cycle resistance. This breakout introduced strong bullish momentum, leading to the price surpassing the $32 resistance as well. After breaking this level, the price retraced to $32 for a pullback and is now preparing for another upward movement.
✨ The next significant resistance for ENS is $47.96, a level previously tested once before. Currently, the price is approaching this zone for a second test. Despite the negative divergence observed in the RSI and trading volume, this is typical in high-momentum uptrends. A successful breakout of $47.96 could propel the price toward the ATH at $77.99.
🔽 In case of a pullback, the $32 zone remains critical support, already tested once. For deeper corrections, the $20.92 level is the next important zone, and losing this level would entirely erode the bullish momentum, pushing the price toward $15.83 and potentially $12.44.
✅ The range between $12.44 and $15.83 represents a key demand zone, which could act as a significant barrier against further declines. For deeper corrections, the first RSI trigger would be a breakdown below 54.66.
⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe: Futures Triggers
In the 4-hour timeframe, I’ll focus specifically on futures triggers, as the main scenarios were detailed in the daily timeframe.
🔼 A breakout above $48.59 provides a suitable long entry. Defining precise targets in advance is challenging, as potential targets come from historical price levels. It’s better to wait for the price to establish a new structure and use that to identify subsequent resistance levels.
📉 A breakdown below $40.96 is a highly risky short entry, with low confidence in hitting the target. However, if a deep correction begins, this trigger could yield significant profits.Additional support levels include $32.86, $25.65, and $21.36. Breaking each of these could activate further short triggers, but for now, all short setups carry significant risk, as the market hasn’t confirmed a trend reversal.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️ above.
BITCOIN Next top is going to surprise you but it SHOULDN'T !!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yet another benchmark, the psychological level of $100k. The market cap is growing and many claim that it can't keep rising as the capitalization would be at unrealistic levels. For one capital inflows seem to be very comfortable right now with BTC investments and there are still billions waiting at the side for the right investment in 2025.
Fundamentals aside, Bitcoin's historic patterns and price action gives us even more reasons to expect (much) higher prices and a Cycle Top that could surprise many.
** Fibonacci Channel Up **
First of all, we've plotted a Channel Up starting from BTC's first Bear Cycle and displayed the Fibonacci retracement levels on it. As you can see, those fit perfectly and catch each Cycle's tops and bottoms very accurately:
1) June 2011 Top on the 0.618 Fib. November 2011 Bottom on the 0.0 Fib.
2) December 2013 Top on the 1.0 Fib. August 17 2015 Bottom on the 0.382 Fib.
3) December 2017 Top on the 1.0 Fib. December 2018 bottom on the 0.5 Fib.
4) April 2021 Top on the 0.786 Fib. November 2022 bottom on the 0.236 Fib.
** Pi Cycle and MM Bands **
Then we have applied the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which are key trend Resistance and Support levels respectively, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which are also historically almost the absolute Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Bitcoin's main upward force.
** Covering at least 4 Fib ranges **
As you can see, all Cycles broke above at least the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) before making a Top. The first two Cycles even hit the MMB SD3 above (red). Also each Cycle has a proportional Fibonacci Channel level range, covering at least 4 Fib bands (as described above). Cycle 1 covered Fibs 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236 and 0.0. Cycle 2 covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 3 also covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 4 covered Fibs 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236.
** Surprise Top **
The MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) is now below Fib 0.618 and it is less likely for BTC to hit it since Cycle 3 didn't. As a result, it is possible that the next Top will be on Fib 0.5 at best (maximum). If that is succeeded towards the end of 2025, and assuming that the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) breaks by then as it always has on every previous Cycle, that gives us a target range for the next Cycle Top within $250k - $350k!
Do you still think that's unrealistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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When is altcoin season?When examining the “ CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D ” 12-monthly chart, a clear pattern emerges for altcoin seasons. We observe three years of downward ▼ momentum and consolidation, followed by a year or more of upward ▲ momentum.
This pattern could be attributed to market cycles and investor behavior, where extended periods of consolidation are followed by explosive growth. During the consolidation phase, prices stabilize, creating a base for future gains. Once market sentiment shifts, upward momentum takes over, often leading to significant price increases.
In previous cycles, we noticed that the altcoin season typically starts after major market cycles. For example, the 2017 altcoin season followed the 2016 cycle, and the 2021 altcoin season followed the 2020 cycle. When zoomed in on the monthly chart, both the 2017 and 2021 altcoin seasons started in January. This consistent timing suggests that the next altcoin season could commence in January 2025.
However, there has already been a bullish candle close in November, which could indicate a shift in the pattern. If December also closes bullish, we might see a two-month variance in the current cycle.
By examining fractals from past cycles, we can attempt to predict where the current altcoin season might peak. The 2017 fractal indicates a duration of 151 days, with dominance potentially reaching 22% around May or June 2025. In contrast, the 2021 fractal suggests a longer cycle of 365 days, with dominance peaking at approximately 24.5% around December 2025 or January 2026.
All charts 📈 indicate that the bottom is in, and all dips are opportunities for buying. Next year's growth looks incredibly promising. 🚀
What do you think? Will the 2024/2025 Altcoin cycle follow the same pattern, or will we see a deviation?
CYCLE 4 | RSI Monthly TrendA quick post to cover Bitcoins Cycles with respect to the Monthly RSI.
We can see based on the monthly close RSI values, a descending trend where each consecutive peak for consecutive bitcoins cycles have reduced in magnitude (i.e. a lower low RSI value coinciding with the trend reversal points. This trend is also evident with monthly RSI low values.
Using trend lines (based on historic BTC behavior in the past), we can speculate what would not be abnormal monthly RSI behavior for this cycles (Cycle 4) top and the future bear market low.
Have a play with the interactive tools in the post to observe details more clearly.
I have also detailed Cycle 1-3 length from the bottom to the top, bear markets (top to bottom), halving's and each cycles Fib extensions for your reference.
For greater detail, reference the below companion post to this discussion.
BITCOIN is incredibly bullish on Xmas! Insane chart showing 145kBitcoin / BTCUSD historically has an explosive price action during Christmas days of Halving years.
Before every Christmas day, BTC is already on a rally that is supported by the 1day MA50, which forms a pre Christmas accumulation through a Channel Up.
Incredibly enough, the rally tops post Christmas on January 8th on the 5.0 Fibonacci extension from the Channel Up.
If that symmetry holds this year as well, then the crazy projection for Jan 8th 2025 is 145000!
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ALTS aiming for an explosive rally.The Crypto Total Market Cap (excluding Bitcoin) has a red 1week candle last week after 5 straight green ones.
This is the first consolidation that all Altcoin Cycles had in December-January months of Halving years, following the breakout over the mid Cycle bull flag.
This is the time to buy heavily into altcoins.
The expected cap for this Cycle is 11 Trillion, which is the 5.0 Fibonacci extension (2.0 Fibs lower than the previous Cycle, which in turn was 2.0 Fibs lower than the one before).
Previous chart:
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DOGE inside a Triangle. Trade the breakout.Dogecoin / DOGEUSD is trading inside a Triangle pattern.
This tight consolidation is getting closer to an end as a breakout should take place by tomorrow.
If it breaks to the upside, buy and target 0.43500 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension).
If it breaks to the downside, sell and target 0.37100 (Fibonacci -1.0 extension).
Previous chart:
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ONDOUSD: Healthy uptrend after a Golden Cross.ONDO is on an excellent bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.296, MACD = 0.229, ADX = 55.368) as it is extending the very healthy balanced bullish wave of the 12 month Channel Up. The formation of the 1D Golden Cross will enhance this uptrend and technically can push it just over the 0.786 Fibonacci level, which is our target (TP = 3.000), which is what happened during the first bullish wave of the Channel Up.
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ALTSEASON This is why you shouldn't delay buying alts any more!Our last Altseason call was exactly two months ago (October 18, see chart below) which turned out to be the exact level that the new rally of the total crypto market cap (excluding top 10) started:
As you can see, the current Cycle (2022 - 2025) displays incredible resemblances with the 2014 - 2017 period. Their Accumulation Phases during the transition from the Bear Cycle to the Bull are very similar, with the Pivot trend-line initially acting as Resistance and then turning into Support on the first Bull Flag formation. That was the pattern that pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, tested and held the 2W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, which was what gave us our accurate buy call 2 months ago.
Even the RSI and MACD fractals between the two Cycles are identical, with the RSI bottoming on the exact same pattern and the MACD forming a Bearish-into-Bullish-Cross pattern while the market was forming the Bull Flag.
Right now we've entered the Parabolic Rally phase (green Channel Up), where the market should continue to rise without major pull-backs towards the -1.5 Fibonacci extension level. Besides that level, what signaled the market top in January 2018 was the RSI forming a Triple Top and the MACD forming its 3rd Bearish Cross. Use those as additional indicators for exiting with huge profit.
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BTC/USDT SHORT TERM TARGET AND IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVELS!!!Bitcoin's surge towards $112,000 excites investors, but caution is warranted. Strong weekly closes fuel optimism, yet corrections loom. Support levels at $92,690, $92,551, $83,470, and $74,541 offer potential buying opportunities. The 5EMA suggests short-term strength, with prices above the moving average.
However, this rally presents a problem for altcoins. Bitcoin's non-bearish dominance stifles their growth potential. Typically, altcoins thrive when Bitcoin's dominance wanes or stabilizes. This creates a dilemma for diversified crypto portfolios.
The solution? Monitor Bitcoin's dominance closely. A shift could spark altcoin momentum. Meanwhile, focus on Bitcoin's journey, using support levels as guideposts. If breached, watch $55,017 for a possible trend reversal. Adapt strategies as market dynamics unfold.
Phemex Analysis #44: VIRTUAL’s 6775% Surge and What's Next?In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, one story stands out: the remarkable journey of VIRTUAL. Since its debut on the Phemex Perpetual USDT market, PHEMEX:VIRTUALUSDT.P has soared an astonishing 97%, climbing from $1.68 to $3.32. But this is just the tip of the iceberg; since its initial launch on February 15, 2024, it has skyrocketed a staggering 6775%, leaping from a mere $0.049 to its current price of $3.32.
As we delve deeper into VIRTUAL's performance, a closer look at the technical analysis reveals intriguing patterns. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is forming a second top, accompanied by an RSI divergence—where the price reaches higher highs while the RSI remains stable. This divergence hints at a potential weakening of momentum, at least within this timeframe.
On the fundamental side, VIRTUAL continues to shine brightly in a competitive landscape filled with formidable challengers like ELIZA Protocol (AI16Z), Alchemist AI, and MyShell.AI. Despite this fierce competition, VIRTUAL's innovative approach and unique offerings position it as a promising player in the AI Agents Protocol space.
Potential Scenarios
As we look ahead, we can envision several potential scenarios for VIRTUAL in the coming days, shaped by key support and resistance levels:
1. Continued Rise
Should the price maintain its upward trajectory, it is likely to consolidate between $3.2 and $2.6 to build momentum before embarking on another climb. However, if it fails to do so, this rise may not hold.
2. Retrace then Rise
After such significant gains over the past two months, a retracement to support levels seems probable before any further ascent. Key support levels at $2.56, $2.33, and $1.88 could provide excellent buying opportunities for those looking to capitalize on dips.
3. Reverse & Keep Dropping
As with many narratives in the crypto world, we must acknowledge the possibility of a reversal once the initial excitement fades. If this occurs, prices could continue to decline—a scenario we’ve witnessed too often in this volatile market. Therefore, setting stop-loss orders is crucial for risk management, particularly if prices dip below $1.8 with high trading volume.
Conclusion
In conclusion, VIRTUAL's journey has been nothing short of extraordinary, marked by impressive growth and resilience in a competitive arena. As traders navigate this dynamic landscape, careful monitoring of technical indicators and market conditions will be vital. The scenarios outlined above serve as a roadmap for potential price movements ahead, underscoring the importance of strategic risk management in this thrilling yet unpredictable market environment.
Tips:
Elevate Your Trading Game with Phemex. Experience unparalleled flexibility with features like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time adjustments to strategy orders. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
BITCOIN The Volatility Index points to strong consolidation nextLast time we analyzed Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in relation to the Volatility Index (VIX), was 4 months ago (August 22, see chart below) and was an extremely successful projection as we took advantage of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) bottom and predicted the $100k Target, which recently got hit:
Once more, we decided to seek the (mostly) negatively correlated patterns of VIX (chart on the right) to determine BTC's (chart on the left) price action in the coming months.
Based on VIX's Channel Down, the fact that it broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and now is rebounding indicates that BTC may be entering a weekly consolidation phase. As you can see on VIX's chart, every time it broke below the 1W MA50 and started rising, Bitcoin entered a multi-week consolidation phase that sometimes was quick and others many months in length. Its 1W RSI is also at a level that relates to all those consolidation phases.
In our opinion this consolidation has more probabilities of being similar to December 04 2023 - January 29 2024, as the post August 2024 rally resembles more the rally that started on August 2023. This highlights the high degree of symmetry within Bitcoin's 2-year Channel Up.
If it continues to replicate that huge Bullish Leg, then we might as well see the rally peaking upon a +195.27% rise again. That could target $145000 by May 2025, which technically would also be marginally above the 1.5 Fibonacci Channel extension, similar to the March 11 2024 High.
So what do you think? Is it possible for Bitcoin to enter a multi-week consolidation now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Degen/UsdtBYBIT:DEGENUSDT
"🚨 **Degen Update** 🚨
Current price is at 0.001447 💸. If you're looking to trade, it might be wise to **wait** for a retest at the 0.0900 or 0.0823 level 📉. If the price drops to those levels again, we could see a good opportunity to **buy** 📈.
Remember, always **do your own research** and trade responsibly! 🧐
**Not financial advice** — just sharing my thoughts! 😎🔥"
Miggles/UsdtBITGET:MIGGLESUSDT
"🚀 **Bullish Trend for Mr. Miggles** 📈
Market cap currently at 100M, but it's on track to hit 400M/500M soon! 💰 This could be a fantastic opportunity for those looking at **long-term** and **mid-term** gains. 📊
If you believe in its growth potential, you might want to **hold** onto it for the next few months or years. 🕒 Remember, patience can pay off in the crypto world! ⏳ Just be sure to do your own research first! 🔍
**Not financial advice**, just sharing the excitement and the potential! 😎🔥"