BITCOIN One last rally left in the tank?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a non-stop rally following the April 07 2025 rebound on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Being inside a 3-year Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom, that was the second time it rebounded on the 0.236 Channel Fibonacci level.
The previous one was during the last Bullish Leg, which was a +106.37% rise, absolutely symmetrical with the Channel's first such Leg in late 2022 - most of 2023.
If the September 2024 (Higher Low) on the 1W MA50 was the start however of a greater expansion Leg similar to late 2023 - early 2024, which delivered a +197.23% rise, we can claim that by October we may see it peaking at around $155500.
That seems to agree with the majority of Cycle Top models we have come up after many analyses. Do you think that will be the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrencysignals
Bullish bounce off swing low support?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 115,415.51
1st Support: 113,466.96
1st Resistance: 120,573.43
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish continuation?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 116,724.27
1st Support: 111,336.90
1st Resistance: 123,341.37
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XRPUSD Massive break-out that can Top at $12.500XRP (XRPUSD) got out of its Accumulation Triangle (December 2024 - June 2025) making an aggressive break-out similar to the December 2017 one, which was after an identical Triangle pattern.
The fractals are so comparable that both mostly traded within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Mayer Multiple (MM) 2 Stdev Above (orang trend-line).
As you can see, that MM trend-line was where the Top of the previous Cycle (April 2021) was priced and the one before was above the 3 Stdev Above (red trend-line).
Assuming that this Cycle will also go for the 'minimum' 2 Stdev Above test, it can make that contact by the end of the year on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (Cycle Top-to-bottom) at $12.500.
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TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP expected to hit $6 Trillion!The Crypto Total Market Cap (TOTAL) has been on a Channel Up since the 2022 market bottom and since the April 07 2025 Low (Higher Low for the pattern), it's initiated the new Bullish Leg, already turning the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support.
As long as this holds, we expect it to complete a +270% rise from the August 05 2024 Low, similar to the Bull Cycle's first Green Phase, and reach at least a $6 Trillion Market Cap!
More importantly, we expect this final part (blue ellipse) to be what is commonly known as an Altseason, where the lower cap coins show much higher returns and disproportionate gains to e.g. Bitcoin.
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BITCOIN Is this just a giant Bull Flag?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is basically on its first strong pull-back since the July 14 All Time High (ATH), as it is the 3rd straight red day going from roughly $120300 to below $115000 as of this moment.
Technically this Channel Down pull-back looks like a Bull Flag to the uptrend that started following the June 22 Low. The 1D RSI pattern is similar to the May 22 - 30 fractal, which was also a correction that started after a Channel Up and initially hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), only to rebound a settle for a last dip lower closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
If the 1D MA50 fails to contain the current correction, we may again be faced with a slightly more prolonged pull-back, which may be translated into an Accumulation Phase that could eventually lead to prices above $130000 by September.
Do you think that will be the case or we will see an instant rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETHEREUM Massive Triangle break-out ahead??Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a 4-year Triangle for the entirety of this Cycle. The recent post April rally has been the most aggressive since the parabolic rally that led to the Top of the previous Cycle.
The price is now almost on the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle. A break above it, can initiate an aggressive Bullish Leg towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ($8000), which was the level that was marginally exceeded during ETH's first rally of this Cycle.
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BITCOIN Should we start thinking about the next Bear Cycle yet?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had extremely symmetric (time-wise) Cycles in the past +10 years and this is a subject we've analyzed extensively many times. We've spent the last months projecting potential Targets for each stage of the bull run and only the last few are left.
This is exactly why we thought today's chart would be very fitting. The current Bull Cycle isn't over yet but also, based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, isn't far of either. By October 2025, that model suggests that all profit should have been taken.
As you can see, we are in the green zone, the Bull Cycle's Final Phase and since this Cycle has been trading entirely within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, by October the price shouldn't be much higher than $160k.
In any event, this is a good guide, presented to you in a good time, to keep your mindset inside a long-term perspective and prepare you for not only the upcoming Top but also the next (1 year) Bear Cycle, which could again push the price below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which would be a solid level for long-term buy positions again.
So do you think the Top is closer than it looks? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Former Resistance turned Support!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating right above the December 17 2024 Pivot trend-line, a level that started off as a massive Resistance delivering two strong rejections but has now been turned into Support, holding this consolidation.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) will soon cross this Pivot trend-line and will confirm it as a Support with the price technically looking for a new Bullish Leg towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at least ($138000), similar to the April - May uptrend, which also consisted of an Accumulation Phase much like the current.
Can the Pivot trend-line provide the necessary support for such a rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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DOGEUSD Is that a textbook Livermore Cylinder to $1.5 ??Doge (DOGEUSD) has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone for the majority of its Bull Cycle since the October 09 2023 Low. We may technically claim that this has been so far one massive Accumulation Phase, along with the rest of the altcoin market.
A pattern that draws strong comparisons with that Megaphone has been 'Livermore's Accumulation Cylinder'. Jesse Livermore, an American stock trader, came with a revolutionary trading pattern a century ago, whose principles often apply perfectly to today's financial assets.
This is what we do on today's Dogecoin analysis, we apply this Accumulation Cyclinder on Doge's Bullish Megaphone. Even though not a perfect fit obviously, the main characteristics apply, with clearly visible Bullish and Bearish Legs.
Based on this model, the market is right now starting the aggressive break-out phase above the Cylinder. Technically the Accumulation is over and the price may pursue levels 8 and 9, which give price Targets of $1.50 and $12.00 respectively.
Now, even though $12.00 falls well after (6 months or so) the expected duration of the current Bull Cycle, $1.50 is well within its limits (October - November 2025) and exactly double the price of the previous Cycle High. This makes it a very attractive Top candidate.
So do you think Doge is inside a Livermore Cylinder that is about to break out parabolically?
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BITCOIN Isn't even overbought yet!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been rising strongly within a structured Channel Up pattern but even this consistent and steady uptrend since the April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been enough to touch the Pi Cycle's overbought trend-line (red).
Throughout BTC's historic Cycles, all Tops have been priced after the overbought level was breached, which currently sits around $180000 (and rising). Given that the 4-year Cycle Theory won't change, even a repeat of the 'weaker' +136.49% last rally of the previous Cycle (Jun-Nov 2021), would take us to $180k exactly but still will be below the overbought trend-line. This just shows the immense upside potential of the market even at the current stages.
So do you think we will get that kind of rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Accumulation Phase almost completed. Higher from here?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is making a strong rebound on the bottom of its 1-month Channel Up and this analysis is in direct response to the one we published last week (July 15, see chart below), where we called this one-week consolidation:
We won't be going into too much detail then, as you can see the price made the Accumulation 2 Phase, after an identical +25.9% Bullish Leg, same as April's and by breaking below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it hit the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
As per the May 05 fractal hit, as long as the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) supports this Channel Up, the market should start Bullish Leg 3 towards Accumulation Phase 3 and eventually peak at around +43% from its start at $140000.
Do you think the pattern will continue to be repeated in the exact same order? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bullish continuation?The Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,471.00
1st Support: 3,039.91
1st Resistance: 4,094.93
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling toward the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 111,241.55
1st Support: 98,383.98
1st Resistance: 127,752.45
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN Entering Cyclical Profit Zone. Risk should be limited.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just entered the first level of the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) Resistance Zone, which is the light pink band. The Top of the previous Cycle was priced at the top of the band just above this.
In fact every BTC Cycle had this as the 'Profit taking Zone'. The market marginally touched that also within December 2024 - January 2025 but got rejected, almost in similar fashion as January 2021, which was a Double Top approach of the peak formation during the previous Cycle.
This Cycle Top is expected to be within October - November 2025, so we call this the 'Profit Taking Zone' for a reason. Risk exposure from now on should be getting more and more limited. Peak range (depending of the nature of aggression of potential Rate Cuts in September) could be anywhere within $140 - 200k.
Do you think this is the time to start limiting BTC exposure, perhaps moving some of the huge profits to alts? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETHBTC shows that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin MASSIVELY!The ETHBTC pair has been rebounding hyper aggressively after the April 21 2025 Low on the 6-year Support Zone, and is now facing it's most important test, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
This trend-line has been its Resistance since basically March 13 2023, so if broken, it will be a massive bullish break-out signal.
In fact during the 2020 - 2021 Bullish Leg, once the price broke above the 1W MA50, the market got the final confirmation of the upcoming long-term rally.
We expect Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin for the rest of the year at least.
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XRPUSD Has it started the mega rally to $8.500??XRP (XRPUSD) has been trading within a Triangle pattern for the past 6 months (January - July 2025) and only recently, it broke to the upside. Ahead of a pending 1D Golden Cross, this pattern is no different than the one of the previous Cycle from May - December 2017.
That setup resulted into the final Parabolic Rally of the Cycle that peaked just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As you can see, both fractals are identical even from their starts, both initiated after a Falling Wedge that produced the first Parabolic Rally (green), which transitioned into the Triangle we described. Even their 1D RSI sequences are similar.
As a result, it is more than probable to see XRP hit $8.500 (Fib 1.5 ext), by the end of the year.
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BITCOIN Should we still trust the Stock to Flow model??It sure worked perfectly during Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) first Cycles, but the Stock-to-Flow model has greatly diverged from the current price action since March 2024.
Right now the model sits at around $750000, which is vastly above the current market price of $119000. It's been trading sideways actually since June 2024 and all of the times that it was ranging, Bitcoin eventually caught up and closed the gap.
It has always been a 'story' of divergence and convergence but it sure seems unrealistic to catch up this time, especially during if this Cycle continues to follow the 4-year model.
So what do you think? Should we still trust what seems more and more like an 'obsolete' model as mass adoption kicks in? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Will it go lower?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) pulled back rather aggressively yesterday after marginally breaking above $123000 and making a new All Time High (ATH).
We've mentioned before the similarities of this Bullish Leg to the April - May structure and so far the current pull-back having already touched the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, resembles the late April pull-back.
However, besides the 0.236 Fib, that pull-back also hit its 4H MA50 and rebounded, so that's a condition that hasn't been fulfilled. If it does, we are potentially looking for a Low around the $115k mark. Notice also how both fractals are supported by a Higher Lows trend-line exactly on their respective 4H MA100 (green trend-line) levels.
If BTC continues to replicate this pattern, we expect to see $140000 (+43.05% from the bottom) by early August.
Will the Support levels hold and push it that high? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bullish continuation?The Ethereum (ETH?USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2,821.91
1st Support: 2,649.43
1st Resistance: 3,077.96
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN High after High going for the Cycle Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a new All Time High (ATH) today, just north of $123000 and shows absolutely no signs of stopping there!
The brilliantly structured 2.5-year Channel Up (blue) that has been dominating the entirety of the current Bull Cycle since the November 2022 market bottom, has been on its latest Bullish Leg since the April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 1W MA50 has been the Cycle's natural Support level since the March 13 2023 bullish break-out, never broken after, just like it has been for the 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle (excluding of course the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID crash).
In fact the similarities of the whole 2022 - 2025 Cycle are strong with the 2018 - 2021 Cycle. Similar Bear Cycles of -80% on average, followed by strong Lower Highs break-outs and subsequent consolidations within the 0.786 - 0.618 Fibonacci range, takes us to today with the April 2025 1W MA50 bounce resembling the July 2021 one.
Eventually, that Bullish Leg led to the Cycle's Top a little above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. The market seems to be only one step away of completing that past pattern and if it does, BTC may hit $170000 before the Cycle peaks.
Do you think that is a likely scenario after today's new fresh ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bullish bounce?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2,810.19
1st Support: 2,361.23
1st Resistance: 3,481.42
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NETFLIX 1D MA50 test is a new buy opportunity.Netflix (NFLX) has been rising non-stop since the April 07 bottom on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This bottom has been the latest Higher Low of the 3-year Channel Up that started on the June 14 2022 bottom.
This kickstarted its third long-term Bullish Leg. The previous two have been fairly similar (+210% and +195.93%) so we can assume a minimum total rise of +195.93% until the next top (Higher High of the Channel Up).
We can also see that on each Bullish Leg, after the initial rebound, the stock always tested the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) around the 0.236 Time Fibonacci level. That has always been the best buy opportunity of that stage.
As a result, we believe that the recent short-term correction is a buy opportunity in disguise, targeting a Higher High at $2200.
Check out our previous analysis on Netflix:
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