SUIUSD gave the final bullish break-out signal to $2.700A month ago (August 13, see chart below) we gave the first bullish break-out signal on Sui (SUIUSD), as the price broke above its Lower Highs trend-line:
As you can see, it re-tested the trend-line to confirm it as a Support and, as expected, it held giving way to a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Sunday. That is the second and final bullish break-out signal.
As per our original analysis, our Target remains $2.700, marginally below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, as it happened with the March 27 2024 High. A Channel Up to guide the price there is the most likely pattern to emerge. Watch also for a potential 1D Golden Cross by the first week of October.
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Cryptocurrencysignals
BITCOIN ahead of a major bullish break-out with 90k targetBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today forcefully above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle pattern since July.
With buying pressure coming aggressively after the 2nd rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) in just 1 month, if a 1D candle closes above the Lower Highs, we will have a strong break-out buy signal for the rest of the year at least.
In that case, we see the emergence of a Channel Up similar to the one that preceded March 2024, as a real possibility to test the 6-month Resistance Zone before the U.S. elections, then technical pull-back going into the event and then resuming the uptrend for the rest of the year.
The Target can be at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level at $90000.
But what do you think? Can this potential Lower Highs break-out be the golden ticket to break out of this 6-month consolidation? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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CKBUSD Major bullish break-out. Expect more upside ahead.Nervos Network (CKBUSD) broke this week above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since June 17. This is a major bullish break-out signal as every time this happened historically after a Lower Highs trend-line break-out, the price in 3 cases made a new High and in 2 reached at least the 0.85 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we expect a strong bounce on the 1D MA200 to target at least 0.02900.
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BITCOIN Wake me up when September ends...Yes. Green Day's famous song suits Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just find under these circumstances. What are they?
Well, it is pure seasonality along its Cycles. This chart is simple. After every Halving since July 2016, Bitcoin enters a phase of choppy trade, with high volatility but it manages to keep the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) intact and support.
Then on the first week of October, it starts the Cycle's most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally. This has been confirmed on the past two Cycles and so far on this one, we have already got the Post Halving Chop, while the 1W MA50 was tested and held twice. With October only 3 weeks away, it appears that (if this model keeps repeating itself) we are preparing for a very strong rally that will be difficult to catch if you don't position yourself now.
But do you think? Is October ready to deliver? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Falling towards 38.2% Fibonacci support?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 57,892.65
1st Support: 56,602.15
1st Resistance: 61,135.75
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XRPUSD Is Grayscale's new Trust launch the dawn of a new era?XRP saw a jump of around +9% on Thursday after Grayscale announced the launch of a new trust that gives accredited investors direct exposure to the cryptocurrency. Unlike an exchange-traded fund, the trust will primarily trade over the counter. Trusts are also more susceptible to trading at a price that does not line up with the underlying value of the portfolio.
Could this pave way for a potential ETF? Possibly, and that would certainly put XRPUSD in the same league as the market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum that are already drawing massive capital inflows following their ETF launch, ushering a new era for cryptocurrency.
But what we can do for the time being, is focus on the short-term technical price action alone and as you can on the 1D time-frame XRP's trend has been bearish since July 13 2023, within a Channel Down pattern.
Currently the price is past the new High, having formed a series of Lower Highs, which have emerged every time after a top. This trend-line didn't break in the past and pushed the price Lower to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level.
As a result, we can't turn bullish short-term as long as the Lower Highs hold. The action remains bearish, targeting 0.4000 (Fib 0.618). The moment however the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, we will take the short's loss and turn bullish, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1275.
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BITCOIN Will the negative correlation with DXY make it rally?Exactly a year ago (September 25 2023, see chart below) we published a comparative analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
** Negative correlation and the Fed next week **
We argued of the natural negative correlation the two have and BTC rose immediately to its impressive October 2023 - March 2024 rally, just when DXY got rejected at the top of its Megaphone pattern.
We believe that, only a few days before the Fed cuts the Interest Rates next Wednesday for the first time in years, it is useful to update this chart.
** Not just about the DXY **
As mentioned, this correlation shows principally the negative nature between the two financial assets but there are other parameters involved also. You can see that from late January 2024 to mid-March 2024, DXY started rising but BTC didn't decline, instead it posted an insane rally, which was solely attributed to the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs.
As this move cooled down, the market started correcting the rally's mania and even though the DXY started a strong decline in late June, BTC didn't raise but instead entered a 50k - 70k range because of the strong correction on the stock market.
** So what's next? **
So the obvious question that arises, is 'what's coming next for Bitcoin'? Well as you realized, that can be answered only in relation to the stock market and DXY moves. BTC is sitting currently on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while the DXY on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Technically, if the DXY rebounds on its 1W MA200, Bitcoin should decline and vice versa if DXY breaks its 1W MA200 (would be the first time since January 10 2022), Bitcoin should rally. However that also depends on what the stocks do.
As a result, we believe that if the stock market rises, BTC will follow it upwards, regardless of what the DXY does (unless it accelerates so fast upwards that will break above the 107.370 Resistance). If the DXY rebounds while stocks rise, there should be a BTC rally but just a moderate one. If DXY breaks below its 1W MA200 while stocks recover, we expect the rally to be much higher than most anticipate.
On the other hand, a further decline on stocks combined with a DXY rebound, would translate into an aggressive sell-off on Bitcoin. If however stocks keep falling while the DXY makes the historic break below its 1W MA200, we expect the July - September consolidation on Bitcoin to be extended, so the trend should be sideways until one of those parameters/ condition changes.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to take place? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Could Bitcoin reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the overlap support.
Pivot: 59,560.05
1st Support: 56,602.15
1st Resistance: 61,135.75
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TONUSD 1st 1D Death Cross in 1.5 years calls for more downside.Toncoin (TONUSD) has been trading within an established long-term Channel Up (blue) and a Diverging one (dotted), while forming a Bearish Leg since the June 15 2024 High.
The highlight of the day is the completion of the first Death Cross on the 1D time-frame since May 19 2023. Naturally this is calling for more downside, which can extend as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level according to the previous Bearish Leg.
Our Target is 3.50 and we expect the correction to complete a Bottom after the 1D RSI posts 3 straight Higher Lows, similar to the Bullish Divergence of July 2023.
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SOL USD CRYPTO: RETEST OF NECKLINE...PERFECT SETUP
About 8 hours ago I put out an alert on Bitcoin breaking out in a Head's 'N' Shoulders Pattern.
Well now it's SOL's turn and like something out of a trading manual its setup is perfect.
I believe it is on the 15m chart & its just about ready to breakout.
easy_explosive_trading
* Trading is risky. This is for illustration purposes only. But here at easy_explosive_trading, we took this trade & entered a buy-order about 3 hours ago.
Could Bitcoin rise from here?The price has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 56,525.20
1st Support: 54,778.31
1st Resistance: 59,855.21
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN It's all about the global liquidity every single time!As the Fed prepares for the first rate cut next week since it begun the cycle of hikes in February 2022, it would be very eye-opening to observe the global monetary supply and what more money in circulation could mean for Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
The light green and red candles (top) illustrate the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) comprising of the FED, TGA, RRP, ECB, PBC, BOJ, BOE and other Central Banks. It tracks and measures exactly what it says, the liquidity/ monetary supply/ money in circulation around world economies.
When central banks cut rates, they essentially print more money, flooding the system with cash that devalues the currency already in circulation. When that happens, it is easier for corporations and/or individuals to access more money through loans etc, thus increasing their spending/ buying/ investing capacity. Principally, this means that it is easier for investors to buy riskier assets, which lead to value increases. In that category fall stocks and cryptocurrency.
As this chart shows, it is no surprise that every time the GLI starts rising, Bitcoin (candles at the bottom) rallies. More specifically, when Liquidity drops and flattens, it creates BTC's Bear Cycle and when it breaks above its Resistance, BTC starts the rally phase of its Bull Cycle.
This time, having experienced the dramatic FED rate hikes that brought us back to pre 2008 Housing Crisis levels, the GLI experienced a stronger drop and instead of flattening, it created a Wedge with Lower Highs as its Resistance.
GLI is now exactly on this Lower Highs trend-line and if broken, we might have a break-out similar to the Resistance break-outs of the previous Cycles, thus initiating the Parabolic Rally on Bitcoin.
Do you think that will be the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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FETUSD signaling to +600% gains in early 2025.Fetch.AI (FETUSD) has been trading within a (dotted) Channel Up since the November 21 2022 bottom of the Inflation Crisis and the recent August 05 Low touched and rebounded exactly on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
Technically, that was the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is typically a formation seen on market bottom reversals. Given the fact that it was also on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Up, there are high chances of a new Bullish Leg. A 1W MACD Bullish Cross (which is very close to emerge) will confirm that signal.
Since 2019 and the start of FET's trading, a 1W MACD Bullish Cross has delivered strong rallies in 6 out of 8 times. Considering also the fact that since the March 09 2020 bottom, the multi-year pattern is a (blue) Channel Up, there are currently much higher chances for a new rally than not.
The first Bullish Leg of the blue Channel Up (2020/21) peaked at more than +15660% and above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Assuming that the pattern is to print another such rise (+15660%) from the November 2022 bottom, then we should be expecting a Q1 2025 Target at around 8.9500.
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BITCOIN The Ultimate Cyclical Buy & Sell Blueprint! MUST SEE !!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been basically trading sideways for the past 6 months following the massive surge at the start of the year due to the introduction of the BTC ETF. There might be no better way to illustrate this 6-month ranged trend than the current chart on the 1W time-frame.
** Buy-Hold-Sell Zone **
On this chart we depict BTC's Cycles in terms of Zones of BUY-HOLD-SELL. As you can see the first two Cycles placed their previous tops just above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, while the most recent one just below the 0.382 Fib.
** When to Buy **
We've found that the 1.0 - 0.786 (Green) Fib Zone is usually the best Zone to Buy, despite the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) investors may have at the time due to the concluding Bear Cycle. All these emotions are normal to have under those circumstances but it's those that traders need to filter out and make the cold decision to buy.
** When to do nothing **
The 0.618 - 0.382 (Blue) Fib Zone is where investors are encouraged to do nothing and just Hold BTC, despite the temptation to sell and take profits after the first strong rallies of the new Bull Cycle or at times when volatility hits the market and disbelief of Bull Cycle continuation makes its presence.
** When to Sell **
The 0.236 - 0.0 (Red) Fib Zone is the best Zone to Sell, even if successive rallies hit euphoria to very high levels making investors expect/ hope that the Bull Cycle will continue to higher and higher levels.
** So where are we now? **
So assuming that the current Cycle will have the previous top just below its 0.382 Fib (such as the previous Bull Cycle 2019 - 2021), we can clearly see the potential Zones of Action.
The 1.0 - 0.786 Fib Zone (Buy) was from the moment of the 15.5k Bear Cycle bottom until Bitcoin roughly broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again. Then it flashed its Buy Signal every time the March - October 2023 consolidation bottomed and pierced through the 0.786 Fib.
It becomes also obvious that the recent 6-month consolidation (March 2024 - now) we talked at the start is nothing but the usual cyclical Hold Action (0.618 - 0.382 Fib) for Bitcoin. In fact, as you can see, this sideways trading has been taking place at the upper level of the Hold Zone within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fib.
** Start selling at 100k? **
With the 1W MA50 tested again last week (2nd time since the first week of August) and so far holding, the market is making a case that we are in cyclical terms on the 'No-Action' region of the Cycle, and most likely shouldn't sell despite the disbelief and fear that the recent 6-month ranged trend may have caused. The time to start selling, if the model is materialized, will be at exactly $100k (0.236 Fib) and potentially lasting up to just below the $200k mark (0.0 Fib).
But what do you think? Do you like this Buy-Hold-Sell Zone classification? Are you expecting this model to repeat the cyclical activity of past Cycles and if so, will you start selling at $100k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BNBUSD more consolidation but long-term cyclically targets $2000Binance Coin (BNBUSD) has been in Accumulation Mode since early March (March 11 1W candle), trading sideways within initially the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) Mean (black trend-line) and the 1st SD above (grey trend-line) and more recently the latter and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
With reference to the 1W MA50 in particular, not only has it been the support since the late December 2023 bullish break-out but was successfully tested and held on the most recent pull-back, the August 05 Low.
This solidifies its position as the Support throughout the remainder of the Bull Cycle, which was in fact also the case during the previous Cycle where BNB had the final accumulation phase (blue ellipse) from September to December 2020, again within the same MMB - 1W MA50 zone, which initiated the most aggressive part of the Cycle (parabolic rally).
That rally peaked on the MM 3rd SD above (red trend-line) so a $2000 price tag, which will 'only' come close to the 2nd SD (orange trend-line), appears to be a realistic Target.
In addition, the Sine Waves serve as an excellent tool in roughly estimating the timing of the Cycle's peak, as it was very efficient during the previous two Cycles. That could be anywhere around June 2025.
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BITCOIN on the Sine Wave Buy Zone but won't last for long!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may be under a quite strong short-term correction since the August 27 rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but based on this 2-year Cyclical Chart, it has high chances of finding Support again and start a rally similar to the two it had over this time span.
Let's start with the long-term outlook which remained bullish after BTC hit and rebounded (August 06) on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), its long-term Support since March 13 2023. The formation of the 1D Death Cross may have offset some of this optimism but on this cyclical pattern it is not a bearish sign as last time it emerged (September 11 2023), Bitcoin formed its new bottom at the time.
In fact it was inside a short-term (dotted) Channel Up, the vessel pattern which took the price from the bottom to a new +100% rally. The key parameter was the fact that the 1D MA200 broke and later was retested and held as Support. This is most likely why we are having the recent pull-back, because even though the price broke above the 1D MA200, it failed to hold.
The 1D RSI also prints a similar pattern to the previous two bottom fractals on this chart and it appears that relative to those past sequences, we are currently after the first RSI peak and pull-back. On the price action, we illustrate the relative position of now and then with circles.
The Sine Waves do perhaps the most efficient depiction of the price cyclicality, clearly displaying where Bitcoin should be bought and where sold. At the moment we are just past the most optimal Buy Entry so it the opportunity still exists but may not last for long! Another +100% rise from August's recent bottom, will see Bitcoin test the psychological benchmark of $100k.
So what do you think? Is a new rally this close, potentially timed after the Fed cuts the rates in 2 weeks? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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SOLANA The 1W MA50 and the RSI Support calling for $850 at leastAlmost 3 months ago (June 14, see chart below), we published our long-term thesis on Solana (SOLUSD), arguing that it wasn't the time to buy, not until it tested the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):
As you can see that turned out to be the case as early last month, the price hit the 1W MA50 and rebounded. Last week's correction though puts this thesis in jeopardy and the 1W MA50 needs to hold. If not, we risk our maximum tolerance level on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), if the Bull Cycle is to stay alive. They key however lies on its 1W RSI.
SOL has been on a correction mode since the March 2024 High, in an attempt to technically harmonize the massive rally of 2023. The 1W RSI Double Topped in the same month and as the correction unfolds, it came last week the closes it has been to the Bull Cycle's Buy Zone since December 21 2020. This Zone is where buyers make their presence during Bull Cycles and not Bear Cycle bottoms.
On the previous Cycle, Solana rose by 51250% from the time is started to form the current long-term Fibonacci Channel Up. If we measure the same % growth from the recent Bear Cycle bottom, then we are looking at a peak a little above $4000. That is the most optimistic scenario we can get.
Keep in mind that Solana has already rose by +2500% up to March's High and if it indeed reaches 4k this Cycle, the rise will be less (+1900%) from March's High than it was from December 2022 to March 2024.
A more realistic target for those who don't want to hold for that long and assume higher risk, would be $850.00, which is expected to be at the top of the MMBs.
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ETHEREUM Closed August above 1M MA50, keeping bullish case aliveEthereum (ETHUSD) may have completed three straight red months (1M candles) but despite the recent correction, managed to close August above the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), in spite of touching it earlier within the month.
This is a key Support level as it also held during the August - October 2023 bottom formation, initiating the multi-month rally up until March 2024. This makes it a long-term Support and as long as it is holding, it is keeping ETH within bullish territory.
At the same time, the price also held the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the Cycle bottom. The last time that happened was during the previous Cycle in September - October 2020. After it held, this kick-started the Cycle's Parabolic Rally to just above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level.
As a result, as long as the 1M MA50 is holding, we can expect the next High to be as high as 11500, even though 8k would seem more reasonable in terms of market cap and thus feasible as a long-term Target.
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DODO Main Trend 09 2024Logarithm. Price at support of horizontal long-term accumulation channel, near capitulation zone. Medium-term and long-term targets of this cycle.
📊DODO network growth over the last couple of months by more than 200%. Pay attention to this DEX.
This horizontal channel on a larger scale.
Secondary Trend Wedge and Capitulation Zone.
BITCOIN Heavily supported by the 1WMA50. Rally can start anytimeBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been following very closely the structural patterns of past Cycles and one analysis we did on the similarity sequences with cyclical fractals has been the following (September 19 2023):
As you can see, BTC followed the exact path we plotted and did what was expected by breaking above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). With the price basically consolidating for the past 6 months (Bull Flag/ Channel Down), it is time to revisit this successful chart and see what lies next.
With some modifications, we can see that after successfully holding the 1W MA50 on the early August test, the price should (relative to the past 2 Cycles), start the new Parabolic Rally (green Arc). We are 147 weeks (1029 days) from the previous Cycle Top and 21 weeks (147 days) since the Halving. In past Cycles that was the exact point ('we are here') where Bitcoin initiated the aggressive rise.
In all cases the 1W MA50 held, so that is the market's goal now, to keep it intact so that buyers don't lose the psychological Support level. If it holds, breaking above the $100k should be a minimum expectation, especially ahead of this month's start of an Interest Rate Cut Cycle and the U.S. elections (traditionally markets are bullish post event) in November.
But what do you think? Do you share the same kind of optimism as this chart does? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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FLOKIUSD Very very close to the start of a x10 rally.Floki (FLOKIUSD) tested earlier this month and held (closed all 1W candles above it) the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), for the first time since February 05 2024. This potentially concludes the Bearish Leg that started in March of the 2-year Channel Up.
Still, the best confirmation to buy would be a 1W RSI crossing above its MA trend-line (has been the ultimate bottom signal 2/2 times in the past 2 years). Once completed, our Target will be 0.01000, aiming at the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous two Bullish Legs peaked.
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