BITCOIN The 'March-October' effect..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is taking a hit on a weekly basis as, despite last week's green candle that extended the rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and hyped hopes for a new 70k test, the last two days are resetting the momentum.
Still, there is no cause for alarm as BTC has been practically consolidating since the March All Time High (ATH). And in fact, the market is no stranger to such consolidations as just as recently as last year, it was also ranged from March until October 2023, before starting the massive rally that led to the ATH.
Even in the previous Cycle, we can somewhat see a rough consolidation pattern, which if it weren't for the COVID crash 'anomaly' of February 2020, the market would again be ranged from March to October 2020. As a side-note, check also how similar the 1W RSI sequences of those fractals are, trading around the same price levels as well.
For title catchers, we can call this 'The March - October effect' and if it plays out again the exact same way it has historically, then as soon as September ends, we can be expecting one of Bitcoin's brutal Bull Cycle rallies (green Channels).
Practically we are only a month away and as you can see in the previous Bull Cycle, the main two rallies have been fairly symmetric. If the one that might start in October is proportionally as strong as the October 2023 - February 2024 one, we might be looking for at least a $150000 Target.
But what do you think? Is a massive rally only a month away and if so, could it reach $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrencysignals
BITCOIN Why holding this Support Zone for 6 months targets $100kBitcoin (BTCUSD) will close the month of August this week and the 1M candle not only rebounded aggressively on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but also held the Symmetrical Pivot Zone for the 6th straight month.
This Zone is critical because during the previous Cycle in late 2021 it served as Resistance and since the recent March 2024 break-out, it has been acting as Support.
The Bullish Waves on the 2-year Channel Up indicate that after this month closes, $100000 is well within reach.
Do you think this is the start of the 100k rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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The Time to Buy Bitcoin is NOW!Don’t sleep on the biggest wealth opportunity of our generation! 💰
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HODL tight! 📈 The strategy is simple: Buy. Hold. Get Rich. It's that easy.
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GALAUSD keep an eye for this +200% profit opportunity.Gala (GALAUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down, similar to all such patterns since the past 2 years. In fact this is the 3rd straight Channel Down occurrence since August 2022 and they've all bottomed around the same levels, before breaking-out the formation above them.
What confirmed the bullish break-out each time has been a 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level is being tested today for the first time since June 07 2024. If we do get that candle closing above, consider it a buy signal and the minimum Target the previous Channel break-outs have achieved has been a little above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, our medium-term Target is 0.0600.
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BITCOIN The Volatility Index is showing the way to 100kBitcoin (BTCUSD) undoubtedly shares a relationship with the Volatility Index (VIX), even though not 100% tight, being a speculative financial asset. Naturally the two are on a negative correlation, meaning that when volatility hits the market and VIX rises, BTC rises and vice versa, similar to what happens against stocks.
Following the massive volatility spike on the weeks of July 29 and August 05, VIX quickly corrected back to its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been its pivot line since the Channel Down started 2 years ago.
Bitcoin on the other hand is already significantly above its 1W MA50, as on the week of VIX's aggressive volatility, it managed to test it and held. Opposite to VIX, Bitcoin has been trading on an upward trend, illustrated on today's analysis by a Fibonacci Channel. Initially the 1.0 Fib has been its top but then when broken, it topped on the 1.5 Fib extension.
As a result, we expect that when VIX finally closes below its 1W MA50, it will seek its 1-year Support, the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line and that will propel Bitcoin to its 1.5 Fib extension again. If that takes place towards the end of the year, we expect $100k to have been reached.
Do you think this correlation model will materialize 100k for Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 5month correction is over. Is 200k the minimum Target??Almost 1 year ago (September 05 2023, see chart below), we published the following idea on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), which very illustratively presented the potential course of the new Bull Cycle:
As you can see, BTC managed to trade an entire year rising within this green Arc pattern and always below the Cyclical Pivot trend-line that emerged from the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle.
Given that historically the Bull Cycle lasts post-Halving almost the time it lasted from the bottom to the Halving, we should expect its top around December 2025 - January 2026 and if it is on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line, then it could be as high as $400k.
However, even on a less optimistic scenario where it lasts 1064 days (152 weeks) from the Bottom (not counting FTX crash), like the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, we can expect a peak a little over $200000 on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line.
It is important to notice that the 1W RSI is recovering from the overbought volatility correction, indicating that BTC should now resume the long-term bullish trend and make a new All Time High soon. Needless to say, the 1W MA50 has to hold, in order to support this bull trend as in all previous Cycles.
But what do you think? Has the market started the new bullish wave and if so, will it reach at least 200k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Potential bullish rise?Ethereum (ETH/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 2,550.99
1st Support: 2,334.36
1st Resistance: 2,854.22
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BTC Technical analysisThis 2-hour CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart is showing a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern, which typically signals a bullish reversal. We can see that the right shoulder is currently forming, and if the pattern plays out, the price target could be around $64,000. The RSI has dipped below the midline, indicating a brief pullback, but it’s still in a healthy range. The MACD is in a bearish phase, but it could be signaling a potential bottom. Keep an eye on the neckline around $59,000; if BTC can break above that, it could confirm the bullish move.
BITCOIN Can it reach at least 150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last month (July) in green and even though August started on a very strong decline, the market has managed to recover most of its losses before the middle of the month.
This shows incredible buying force right on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the 2021 All Time High (ATH). Today's study is centered around the 1M time-frame and the Bullish Crosses of the MACD. In the past 10 years, we have had this formation only 5 times, all of which during Bull Cycles.
The most recent one was in June 2023 and needless to mention, BTC had a remarkable rally (its first of the Bull Cycle) after it. From a time perspective within the Cycle, the June 2023 Cross, resembles the Bullish Crosses of November 2019 and December 2015. They were formed 25 and 23 months respectively after the High of the previous Cycle and following their formation, BTC peaked exactly 24 months (731 days) later.
The June 2023 MACD Bullish Cross was formed 19 months after the previous Cycle High, so if it follows the previous peak patterns, then Bitcoin should peak around June 2025. Symmetrically, it appears that we are currently in a above 0.786 Fib consolidation phase (blue circles) as November 2020 and February 2017.
The bullish break-outs that followed after such consolidations, initiated the Bull Cycles' 2nd rallies to the eventual ATH. If we were to make a rough projection on that high, we can look into the Channel Up since 2014. That pattern formed the Cycle Highs above it every time (red arcs), so technically we could be looking at values between 200k - 300k.
However even if we follow a 'conservative' path within the Channel Up, if BTC hits the top of that dotted Channel, it will reach a price as high as $150000, which in our opinion is a very desirable level to start taking long-term profits.
But what do you think about this whole scenario? Is the 1M MACD Bullish Cross symmetry about to start the 2nd rally of this Cycle and if yes, can it reach 150k at least? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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SUIUSD Very strong bullish break-out signal.Sui (SUIUSD) has gone +140% from last week's Low (August 05) and broke above two major medium-term Resistance levels: 1) The Internal Lower Highs trend-line) and 2) The 4-month blue Channel Down.
The last time the price broke above such major Lower Highs trend-line was on November 04 2023. That initiated a rally that peaked just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, which gave way to the 4-month blue Channel Down.
An equally strong bullish signal is the break-out of the 1W RSI above its MA line. As a result, we have strong reasons to turn bullish on Sui on the long-term, targeting 2.7000.
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Bearish reversal?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 2,807.45
1st Support: 2,538.15
1st Resistance: 3,086.37
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN is right on track and even stronger than previous CyclesBitcoin (BTCUSD) has experienced a sharp drop over the past 2 weeks, causing a test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which as explained in a previous analysis, this has only happened once during a Bull Cycle.
As today's idea shows though, what caused massive panic and liquidations recently, can be seen as merely a technical attempt of the market to re-adjust and harmonize what was a very aggressive bull run up until March, towards the mean, relative to past Cycles.
More specifically in the last 2 Cycles, as you can see, 630 days after the Cycle bottom, Bitcoin was trading just below its 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, while on the current Cycle the recent drop took place just over it. This means that the current bull run came closer to the trend of the last two, but remains more aggressive.
As a result, we expect BTC to resume the rally and continue on a more aggressive tone than in the past and by early 2025 break above 100k and possibly by next Summer reach the -0.618 Fibonacci extension, a level that was achieved during all past Cycles.
So what do you think? Has this BTC Cycle been normalized after the recent drop and is now ready to resume the uptrend? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Potential bullish bounce?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 56,833.90
1st Support: 56,677.44
1st Resistance: 61,685.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ETH/USD Secondary trend. Bullish triangle. Breakout. Target 96%Logarithm. Time frame 1 week (less is not necessary). Horizontal accumulation channel has reformatted due to price holding near the meridian zone of the 1500 level into an ascending triangle (bullish triangle).
Linear for clarity.
Locally breakout zone. Time frame 1 day
Fractals. Underperformance due to liquidity and capitalization.
Similar things are developing only more slowly (liquidity) as recently in SOL/USDT.
SOL/USDT Secondary trend (part). Triangle. 1 10 2023
Already almost +150% off the breakout.
ETH will be a bit off due to timing, but the gist is similar....
Or in the past LISK/USD in the distant 2020 (Interest is different due to liquidity)
LISK/USD Major trend. Triangle. 24 12 2020
+325%
On growth always wait for correction, on fall for growth (reversion), such is the psychology of behavior of most market participants. .
Memo to the hamster. Sometimes staying out of the market is the best strategy. [/b
By the end of 2024 the price with "high probability" for this bankable super centralized cryptocurrency will be over $10k. In 2025 in the distribution zone (trend highs) over 20k.
Risk Management. .
There will very likely be a “super takeout” (emphasis added, this is a logical “as always” probability). Look at a chart of ether or bitcoin and think about when it is more rational to do this. Probably, it will seem like everything is "going to hell", treat it coldly, buy back in installments with a grid of orders from the profit that will be in the near medium term. But, it does not change the above described target of the cycle of “participation” and “distribution”.
When the price falls—the majority of market participants expect prices to rise or at least return to the past maximums.
When the price rises—the majority, "according to the habit of previous self-deception" expects prices to fall....
The greater the price growth, the greater the expectation, up to the "point of breaking the opinion" (when it is already necessary to do everything the other way around).
A perfect scheme of making money on the expectation of the majority.
NEO/USDT: Prime Buying Opportunity Amid Bullish Reversal SignalThe NEO/USDT pair is currently trading at 4.153, showing signs of a potential upward reversal after a recent downward correction. This retracement has brought the price to a critical support level, which is being closely watched by traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently dipped into oversold territory, indicating that the selling pressure may be waning and a reversal could be imminent. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is beginning to show a bullish crossover, which historically signals a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Moreover, the price action suggests that NEO has formed a bullish divergence, where the price is making lower lows while the RSI is making higher lows. This divergence is often a precursor to a strong upward move. The 50-day moving average is also flattening out, suggesting that the recent downtrend may be losing steam and that a base is being formed.
Considering these technical indicators, the current level offers a strong buying opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the potential medium-term upside. The combination of oversold conditions, bullish divergence, and a potential MACD crossover suggests that NEO could see significant gains from this point. With the price at 4.153, a well-timed entry could allow for substantial profits as the market reverses and begins to move higher. Therefore, this pullback should be viewed as a prime opportunity to buy, with the expectation of a strong rally in the coming weeks.
HNTUSD can go 10x from here.It was quite long ago (December 06 2023, see chart below) the last time we looked into Helium (HNTUSD) but it did offer nonetheless a solid bullish break-out opportunity:
Now Helium is having (if the week concludes at least on the current levels) the strongest 1W bullish reversal of the Cycle. It broke above both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line of February. That is a clear technical bullish break-out that aims at the final Resistance of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
A similar pattern was formed during its previous Bull Cycle with the current rebound resembling the November 2020 bounce. This initiated a +3067% rise before the next medium-term pull-back.
As a result, we see strong evidence for an upcoming +1380% rise from the current level with our Target being $90.00.
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BITCOIN Amazing 'Golden Ratio' correlation showing the way!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy pressure lately, basically it has paused for the past 5 months the uptrend that started in late 2022. We have discovered a remarkable correlation with Gold (XAUUSD) and Russell 2000 (RUT) in the form of the GOLD/RUT ratio (blue trend-line). This correlation, which is a negative one (i.e. when BTC rises the GOLD/RUT ratio falls and vice versa), is present on a cyclical basis.
This means that during every Cycle, it displays a behavioral pattern that is common. That is the following:
When the GOLD/RUT ratio peaks and starts falling by forming Lower Highs, Bitcoin tends to start its parabolic rally (green arc) of the Bull Cycle, above previous All Time Highs. This usually takes place a little before the Halving.
Right now it appears that it happened on the last Halving (mid April), assuming we see the ratio forming Lower Highs from now on. If it does, BTC will most likely start the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle. The Sine Waves that track the GOLD/RUT peak, suggest that indeed the April High may have been the new peak. It remains to be seen if Lower Highs will be formed.
What do you think will happen? Can this be BTC's "Golden ratio" that reveals the parabolic rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Mirroring KDA: Why CULT DAO Could Skyrocket 100xToday I will present my thesis on how it is possible for CULT to move over x100 from its current price.
This all started by mistaking the KDA chart for a CULT chart.
What you see above is very interesting; CULT has mirrored KDA in pretty much every way.
So the thesis is the following:
If CULT is mirroring KDA and KDA is mirroring its first cycle, then that means CULT, in theory, could move x100 from where we are right now.
The first wave of KDA took nearly the same amount of time: 168 days compared to 147 days.
I believe right now we just completed the second wave. It took KDA 140 days to bottom in the last cycle. So far, it's been 140 days, and it seems to have a very high chance of being a major bottom. So again, the same amount of time, most likely.
The top of the 4.236 Fib extension would technically take CULT to $0.00026607 (143.82x), which would be around a 1.3 billion dollar market cap.
Bitcoin cycles take 1064 days to complete. If the cycle repeats, that means we either have a top in May 2025 or September 2025, depending on what you mark as a cycle low.
Which again, May 2025 fits with this fractal perfectly, and when you overlay the KDA fractal onto the CULT chart, what you see is something pretty amazing.
A rally till the end of the year with an 80% correction down to this very strong confluence point in late February/March 2025.
With the final run being from March 2025 to May 2025.
Another interesting chart I'm looking at is CULT/VIX. You can see that the February 2023 and March 2024 highs hit the same point in this chart.
Taking a look at this chart, we can also see a pattern emerge that showed us the start of the altcoin run.
(Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, %)
**Conclusion**
If this thesis proves correct, I've just handed you a 100x opportunity, published months in advance—a historical record of what might seem impossible but could soon become reality.
Just like predicting this huge crash before it happened.
XRPUSD Incredibly strong 1D candle. Sign of a bullish break-out?A little over a month ago (June 25, see chart below), we posted a roadmap on XRPUSD looking towards an aggressive break-out and rally above its multi-year Triangle:
Yesterday, the crypto made a massive 1D green candle (end of SEC's lawsuit), against the majority of the market sentiment and yet again it almost touched the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down pattern that started on the July 13 2023 High.
Just a week ago (July 31 2024), we had the last test (and rejection) of that top so a test that soon could be an early warning of a bullish break-out.
If the price breaks and closes the candle above it, we expect a W-shaped recovery that could target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1275.
If rejected at the top again though, we would expect a re-test of the Channel's 0.618 Fib level, with a rough Target at 0.4000.
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BITCOIN priced the new bottom. Strong evidence of new ATH ahead.With tensions and volatility continuing among the markets, we revisit a chart that we published almost 1 year ago (August 14, see chart below) when the market was again in a time of high volatility and was consolidating within a wide margin for a rather long period of time (April 17 2023 - August 21 2023):
Back then we stated that a huge rally was in the making and only one week later, the market delivered and BTC rose from 25k to +70k in a span of 6 months. It was the unique Bullish Cross on the 3W KTS indicator that only happens once in every Cycle that cemented our bullish projection.
BTC is now on a consolidation phase similar not only to the 2023 one (Apr - Aug) but also to the past Cycles that followed the KTS Bullish Cross. It is noticeable that there are two such consolidation phases in every Bull Cycle and currently we are inside the 2nd.
This is strong evidence suggesting that we are about to experience multiple green months in the coming quarters.
Do you agree or you feel the economic slowdown fears will prevail and break this structure? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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