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BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTC daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% BTC, 55% Cash. * BULL TRAP WATCH . All eyes are on the FOMC statement due to be released in approximately twenty minutes (2pm EST), market consensus is a 75bps rate hike but there is still a slim chance for a 100bps. July's Consumer Confidence Index released yesterday came in at 95.7 (from 98.4 in June) and showed a third consecutive month of decline; additional data on consumer confidence from University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index is due to be reported on 07/29. The Atlanta Fed's latest GDPNow estimate (-1.2%) was reported this morning and is up from the previous estimate on 07/19 (-1.6%), this should allay some fears that economic productivity is worsening in time for the 1st Q2 GDP estimate due tomorrow (07/28) at 830am EST. That said, it will be interesting to see how the markets respond to today's FFR rate hike and tomorrow's GDP estimate as the economic slowdown is still beginning to show in housing sales, canceled home purchases, and corporate earnings/layoffs. Regarding crypto, SEC launched a formal investigation into Coinbase's "alleged security listings" which the SEC failed to provide clear guidance on for the crypto industry; "investment guru" Cathie Woods just offloaded $75m in COIN at a steep loss. Key dates remaining this week: FOMC statement at 2pm EST today, META earnings after-hours today, 1st Q2 GDP estimate at 830am EST tomorrow (07/28), AAPL and AMZN earnings after-hours tomorrow (07/28), PCE Index report at 830am EST (07/29) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (07/29).* Price is currently testing the 50 MA at ~$21.8k as resistance after breaking below it two sessions ago. Volume is Moderate (low) and is currently on track to break a two day streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green; it is also due to shrink for a third consecutive session which is indicative of a potential breakdown or breakout, this is after the last six day shrinkage streak saw a sell-off Volume surge bringing Price down below the 50 MA (and $21.6k mental stop loss). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $24180 minor resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI bounced from 46 and is currently testing the descending trendline from January 2021 at 49 as resistance after breaking back down below it on 07/25. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 30 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bullish and continues to defy a bearish crossover for the second consecutive session as it trades sideways at 84, if it crosses below 25 it would be a bearish crossover; the next support is at -232 and the next resistance at 313. ADX continues to trend down with no signs of trough formation and is currently at 18 as Price continues to attempt to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment; if ADX bounces and Price pushes higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to reclaim support at the 50 MA (~$21.8k) then the next likely target is a retest of $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support for the fourth time in about a month before potentially heading lower to test the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $22k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% ETH, 52% Cash. *SUPER SHORT-TERM BEARISH. Cryptos are currently seeing the Sunday/Monday scaries and it could translate into an overall bearish week if economic data (FFR hike, Consumer Confidence, GDP, and PCE) surprises higher and/or earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft surprise lower. However, DXY is trending down as well and if it sustains more downward pressure it could help alleviate the aforementioned potentially bearish situation. Regardless of short term noise, the current estimated Merge date is 09/12/2022 and provides a bullish backdrop to Price action over the next month or so.* Price is currently trending down as it approaches its first test of $1427 support. Volume remains Moderate (low) and is currently on track to break a two session streak of buyer dominance if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1336, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 59 as it approaches a test of a triple support: the uptrend line from 06/18/22, the descending trendline from February 2020 and 55 support; this area should provide a lot of support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 88 as it approaches a test of 81 support. MACD is currently forming a soft peak as it trends sideways at 86, the next resistance is the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~156 resistance; it's also still technically testing 28 support. ADX is beginning to trend down at 30 as Price sees selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment because it indicates that there is a momentum shift. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely face a bit of resistance at ~$1600 before potentially testing $1711 resistance for the first time since breaking below it on 06/10/22. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $1427 support for the first time since breaking above it on 07/18/22. Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $1611.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BullishETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 80% ETH, 20% Cash. * Ethereum's Merge is currently estimated to be ready for launch on Mainnet on 09/11 . Cryptos are seeing a choppy weekend as they attempt to continue bullish momentum going into a big earnings week for Equities and a Fed decision on whether or not to raise more than 75bps on 07/27. Russia and Gazprom continue to maintain that EU and Canadian sanctions are to blame for the delay in the return of the repaired turbine and have resumed pumping gas at 40% capacity on 07/21; however Germany refers to the disruption in gas flow as a political weapon being used by Russia. The WHO also declared Monkeypox to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, this is the seventh time since the WHO started making such declarations after the SARS outbreak in 2002-2004. That said, it's reasonable to expect for volatility to rise in the coming week but it's also important to remember that money markets tend to start pricing in recoveries by the time recessions are officially declared.* Price is currently completing a weak Bull Flag formation as it continue to hover above $1427 support in hopes of testing $1711 minor resistance. Volume is Moderate (low) and has been shrinking for six consecutive sessions now, hinting at a potential pending breakout/breakdown; additionally, it has maintained a fair balance between buyers and sellers over that same period which is indicative of consolidation before moving higher. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1240, this margin remains neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 64 after bouncing at 63, the next resistance is at the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 at 71 and the next support is the descending trendline from February 2020 at 55 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently completing a trough formation as it attempts to cross over bullish at 89, the next support is at 81 and the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 79 as it is on the verge of reclaiming 28 support; the next resistance is at 155 and coincides with the descending trendline from August 2021. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price consolidates, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout from here then the next likely target is a test of $1711 minor resistance for the first time since losing support there on 06/10/22. However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely test $1427 support for the first time since breaking above it on 06/18/22. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1427.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Weekly TA BullishETHUSD Weekly bullish. Recommended ratio: 95% ETH, 5% Cash. *Cryptos took a brief dip yesterday after news that Tesla had sold 75% of their Bitcoin holdings (~$936m) due to fears of China's Covid lockdowns (Tesla has a Gigafactory in Shanghai) and a need for cashflow. This came as a shock to the crypto community because in 2021 Elon tweeted that "Tesla has diamond hands". Ethereum is now up 86% from the local bottom ($875) on 06/13, and is now down 66% from its ATH ($4800) compared to being down 82% on 06/13. With the Merge currently scheduled for a September launch (~09/12/22) , this should continue to drive ETH higher in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of long trade. DXY appears to be undergoing a bearish correction, adding bullishness to money markets as Cryptos, Equities, the Euro and Gold are seeing a pick up in buying pressure. The ECB also raised their central bank interest rate for the first time in 11+ years by 50bps, it is now 0% amidst rising inflation; compared to how the Fed has responded to inflation, this rate hike was dainty considering the looming energy crisis due to Nord Stream's reduced capacity going forward for 2022.* Price is currently attempting to break above $1408 resistance with hopes of flipping it to support; this is after defending a crucial support at the uptrend line from June 2020 (which coincided with the 200 MA) at ~$1200. Volume is currently Moderate (high) and on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session if it can close this week's session in the green, this is bullish! Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$3350, this margin is bullish! RSI is currently trending up at 38 with no sign of peak formation as it test 37 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 33 with no signs of peak formation as it tests 27 resistance, the next resistance is at 52. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -500 as it attempts to complete a trough formation, if it can cross above -420 it would be a bullish crossover (and the first time MACD would be bullish since before December 2021). ADX is currently trending sideways at 33 as Price pushes higher, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to close above $1408 resistance in this session and next, it will likely test $1944 resistance before the Merge. However, if Price breaks back down below $1408 resistance (still resistance until Price reclaims support) , it will likely retest the uptrend line from June 2020 at ~$1200 before potentially heading lower to retest $1k psychological support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1200.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA BullishETHUSD Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% ETH, 10% Cash. *SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES. Cryptos enjoyed a rally for most of the weekend on news that Ethereum's Merge is scheduled for launch on Mainnet around September 19th . This news combined with the lighter tone in the past week from the Fed's Waller, Bostic, Barkin and Bullard, has seemingly lifted markets in the short term. However, a negative catalyst materialized last week when China (the worlds largest fertilizer producer) announced they would put a cap on phosphate exports . This move by China will likely adversely impact global food production and further disrupt supply chains (therefore potentially pushing inflation higher). Key dates this week: Housing Starts and Building Permits report released at 830am (EST) on 07/19.* Price is currently testing the 50 MA as support for a second consecutive session at $1350 after reclaiming support at the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at $1250; the next resistance is at $1427. Volume remains Moderate and is currently attempting to resume buyer dominance after ending a four day streak of buyer dominance in yesterday's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1050, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 59 after bouncing at 58, this is just above the descending trendline from February 2020 at 55 support so it's possible that RSI formally tests 55 as support in the near-term. Stochastic remains bullish at max top as it coasts in the "bullish autobahn" (bullish in the near-term). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at ~1 as it looks to establish -46 as support, the next resistance is at 28. ADX is currently trending down at 27 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to establish the 50 MA as support at $1350, the next likely target is a test of $1426 resistance before potentially heading higher ( $1711 minor resistance ). However, if Price breaks back down below the 50 MA, it will likely formally retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1100 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1135.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
2
BTC Daily TA BullishBTCUSD Daily TA bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% BTC, 10% Cash. *WEEKEND RALLY. Cryptos continue rallying off of news that Ethereum's long awaited Merge is forecasted to be finalized and ready for launch on Mainnet ~09/19/22 . Assuming that the final trial on the Goerli testnet goes well in August, this timeline should be fairly accurate; however, The Merge has been plagued by delays up until this point so take these forecasts with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic/geopolitical/supply chain situation continues to worsen. This contrast can be unsettling hence the need to continue being vigilant; however, Weekly conditions continue to support the notion that cryptos may be close to a bottom due to extremely oversold conditions.* Price is currently testing the one-month high of $21.5k as resistance and will try to test the 50 MA at $23.5k if the weekend crypto rally can continue. Volume is currently Moderate (low) and on track to both shrink and favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session (indicating that a breakout/breakdown is potentially impending). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $22k, this margin is bullish. RSI ripped through 42 resistance and is currently trending up at 50 as it tests the descending trendline from January 2021 at 49 as resistance; the next resistance is the uptrend line from November 2018. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 96 as it approaches a retest of max top. MACD remains bullish after denying a soft peak formation and is currently breaking out above -869 resistance as it trends up at -622; the next resistance (minor) is at -232. ADX is currently trending down at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX can form a trough as Price continues to push higher this would be bullish. If Price is able to continue trending up here then it will likely test the 50 MA at $23.5k as resistance before potentially pushing higher to test $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% ETH, 60% Cash. *Equities, Cryptos, Commodities, Treasuries, VIX and the Euro all finished today either relatively flat or slightly up; while DXY pushed even higher today signaling that fears of a "technical" global recession are still mounting. The correlations have been muddied all year but financial markets seem to be signaling that a recession is already priced in and that inflation is reaching its peak. However, there is very little evidence to support that the supply chain situation is improving at the moment (China still maintaining 'Zero-Covid' policy and Russia pushing on in Ukraine). According to the Fed , demand issues only account for 1/3 of US inflation and at least 1/2 of it is caused by global disruptions to supply chain; using this logic it would be reasonable to assume that inflation hasn't peaked because the situations in Ukraine and China have not improved while economic conditions around the world are simultaneously deteriorating. Seeing that Cryptos are the most 'Risk-On' asset in the markets currently, there isn't much of a bullish narrative that can be written up at the moment. That said, it would be prudent to remain vigilant during these times.* Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1200 as resistance. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today in the green; this is mildly bullish at this critical resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1270, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 49 after bouncing at 37 support and reclaiming the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at 41; the next resistance is the descending trendline from February 2020 (which coincides with 55 resistance). Stochastic crossed over bullish at 47 support in today's session and is currently trending up at 62, the next resistance is at 81. MACD remains bullish after denying a peak formation and is currently trending up at -63 as it approaches -47 minor resistance; it is also still technically testing -91 support. ADX is currently trending down at 33 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to reclaim support at the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at $1200 resistance, then the next likely target is a retest of the 50 MA just below $1426 resistance . However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest $1k psychological support before potentially falling lower to test $776 support for the first time since breaking above it in January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1200.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy