BTC dominance, correlation with tech, and uncertain outlookBitcoin has been holding up above $30,000 for multiple days. At the same time, the number of large holders began to increase again (slightly), suggesting that whales are waiting for better prices and not selling yet. Overall, that is quite positive, but there are still a few things to watch out for that can cause the rally to reverse quickly. As a result, we are paying close attention to the daily chart, where several technical indicators show little signs of exhaustion. For example, MACD is flattening (potentially leading to a bearish crossover between the MACD and signal lines), RSI is struggling below 70 points, Stochastic points to the downside, and volume is very low. Ideally, for Bitcoin to continue higher, we would like to see all these components start rising again, with RSI breaking above 70 points; in such a scenario, we would expect the breakout above $31,458 and potentially $32,000. However, if RSI fails to cross 70 points to the upside in the next few days, it will be bearish for the short-term; the same will apply to the falling Stochastic and MACD.
Besides watching these technical indicators, we also look at Bitoin’s market dominance and correlation with the U.S. tech sector. In regard to market dominance, Bitcoin has been taking away a market share from its competitors for the past few months. There have been numerous factors contributing to this situation, with one being regulatory scrutiny of altcoins. We believe this trend will persist in the next few months, with the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission labeling more assets that are now deemed “cryptocurrencies” as “securities,” sparking further capital outflow from the altcoin market. In our opinion, that will help Bitcoin solidify its first place in the cryptocurrency market (and going into the future). Now, in relation to Bitcoin’s correlation with the tech sector, we saw that in late May 2023, these two markets started to decorrelate slightly. This fact has been reflected in the correlation coefficient shown in Illustration 1.03. However, when Bitcoin rose above $30,000 in late June 2023, the correlation coefficient began to tick up. Considering that the U.S. stock market valuations seem to be stretched, we think it would be prudent to watch out for what is happening in the tech sector, as its weakness can once again weigh on the risk assets like Bitcoin.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above displays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The green and red arrows show the divergence between the price and RSI from January 2023 until April 2023. We want to point out how RSI does not show significantly more strength (during the most recent rebound in Bitcoin’s price) compared to the mentioned period.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the weekly chart of BTC.D, representing Bitcoin’s market dominance.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD. Below the main chart is the correlation coefficient. It can be viewed that the positive correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 Index started to strengthen in late June 2023.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (with signs of exhaustion)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
