ARB Secondary trend. 24 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days (less is not necessary).
⚠️ Currently a decline from the maximum of -90% . For assets of such liquidity, these are not the lowest values, but perhaps the previous hype played a role in this. Work from the average price, or on a breakout , and you will not care when the reversal occurs. The main thing is to distribute the entry and exit points after the purchase in advance, that is, distribute the risk and profit. And, after that, no longer be interested in the asset, or opinions, or fictitious positive / negative news to stimulate demand / supply of “stupid money”. Do not get stuck in market noise and unnecessary, fear-driven or greed-driven opinions.
Main trend (the entire history of cryptocurrency trading), for clarity of pricing and the zone for work now, which is discussed.
ARB Main Trend 24 04 2025
🟣 Local trend. At the moment, a wedge-shaped formation has formed in it, there is an attempt to break through it and the price is clamped.
1️⃣ If this zone of minimums is held — for a start, the potential for a downward trend of the secondary trend (shown with a red line).
2️⃣ Then, when it is broken through , — to the channel median (green dotted line).
Cryptocurrrency
ARB Main Trend 24 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 1 week.
Previously a very hyped coin, "killer" of something there...
Now - the dominant opinion is that this is a scam, a scam, "whales are selling now", and so on. It's funny to look at all this and how the opinion changes with the price. Crypto is a mess, there are no other words... That is, now is the time to take a closer look at the asset, and the start of the set.
If the price drops to lower values (shown on the chart), from the position of the trend, and potential percentages of the pump, the price is now acceptable, and the profit will be significant, but not "hamster". Set adequate goals, fix in parts as the trend develops, protect your profit. When there is an aggressive pump "with a stick", by a large %, - completely exit the asset, or protect the profit with a stop.
There is a small probability that an asset of such capitalization, and the unrealization of "buy a candy wrapper", will be knocked down in advance before the full 3rd alt season of this cycle, without distributing "prospects" on the "revival of faith".
⚠️ Now the decline from the maximum is -90% . For assets of such liquidity, these are not the lowest values, but perhaps the previous hype played a role in this. Work from the average price, or on a breakthrough and you will not care when the reversal occurs. The main thing is to distribute the entry and exit points after the purchase in advance, that is, distribute the risk and profit. And, after that, no longer be interested in the asset, or opinions, or fictitious positive / negative news to stimulate demand / supply of "stupid money". Do not get stuck in market noise and unnecessary opinions driven by fear or greed.
1️⃣ If this zone of minimums is held — for starters, the potential for a downward trend of the secondary trend (shown with a red line).
2️⃣ Then, when it is broken , — to the channel median (green dotted line).
🟣Local trend At the moment, a wedge-shaped formation has formed in it, there is an attempt to break through it and the price is clamped.
ZkSync Main Trend. L2 for ETH. $458 million funds 21 02 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days.
🟢Reversal zone. At the moment, there is a fractal repetition with the previous reversal zone. The logic and key local levels on which the direction of the secondary trend will depend are shown with arrows.
🔴Also showed the range and future levels of an unlikely extremely negative scenario. That is, a breakthrough of the long stop collection zone of a large squeeze (this happens very rarely, since it is irrational, but since in the news background earlier during the listing - funds of 458 million investments, then why not) and the formation of a capitulation channel under the channel with a full range (hold the chart and pull it down), or only from its median (dotted, more likely if we go this way).
Also, regardless of the implementation of scenario 1 or 2, the maximums of this cycle are shown (hold the chart and pull it up). Or rather, the zone. The percentage itself will be different, the "levels" of the zone, most likely, will not.
DODO Local trend. 19 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. No need for less. Capitulation zone or complete scam. From the breakthrough of support of the long-term horizontal channel -68%. For key local resistance zones in cases of breakthrough of resistance of the descending wedge, percentages for clarity are shown (similarly, as in the previous idea of this coin, reaching the specified % and reversal and super decline).
Secondary trend and this zone in it, for understanding the zone and risks of work.
DODO Secondary trend. 19 04 2025
Long-term as for me, it will be a scam, like all the rest.
Locally you can work with a wedge (breakthrough) and the first targets to the mirror resistance level. Sometimes pumps are “stick” into the depth of the previous channel, but not above its previous resistance level. Probably, these should be your last local-medium-term targets.
The maximum where I can pump crypto wrapper in the future for the big cryptocurrency hype, if it doesn’t crash earlier, is to the median zone, no higher than 0.666. But, as for me, it is more rational to work with local, maximally down-to-earth goals , observing risk and money management.
OP Secondary trend. Wedge. Reversal zones. 17 04 2025From the wedge breakout, the price reached the level of 2.857 (81%) and from it the trend reversal under the general trend of altcoins, breaking through the "neck" zone of the head and shoulders, thereby realizing this pattern on a large scale and reaching the reversal zone of the minimums of the level of 0.509. We went down to the range below along the fan. Consolidation above the dynamic support opens up the potential for movement to its resistance, I specifically put another meridian, as from it with a high degree of probability, even with the implementation of the bullish potential, there will be a significant pump / dump rollback. It just intersects with the previous consolidation of support, which in this case acts as resistance (those who previously bought in this zone will sell, thereby going into breakeven and stimulating the stop of the impulse and a rollback (logical probability).
Locally, again having formed on the fall, as before, a descending wedge in the secondary trend. It has not yet been fully formed, the price is not clamped. But, conditionally, the price is at the minimum zone. You can start gaining from the average price, or work on a breakthrough of the formation, observing risk and money management. If you are scared (it is always like this at the minimum zone) - then everyone is the same, and most refuse to buy, but willingly buy when the price is already expensive.
A breakthrough of this wedge is a corrective upward movement to the mirror resistance zone of the previous consolidation (highlighted in gray), if in general, a "revival of faith" is observed in alts.
Also after breakout of the wedge, if the market as a whole is bearish on alts, then they will make a cut (in this case, a repeated set) at the zone of minimums in a wide range of price slippage and the complete death of faith in the candy wrapper of "crypto whales", highlighted in green.
OP/USDT Major trend. 07 2024Logarithm. Time Frame 1 week. After the listing there were 3 cyclical pumping of the “participation” phase. PR, hype, connection of the majority in mass media. The reversal occurred with a typical breakout in the secondary trend of a triangle (first pumping) or a wedge (second pumping). Now the third wedge is forming, the price is near the dynamic Gann support (reaction from it), but still in the range of the descending wedge pattern.
On a line chart (liquidity, no slippage) the declines are cyclical at -63% each time according to the algorithm. Each successive top +55% of the previous secondary trend.
It is quite possible that something similar will happen again this time (not necessarily), but only ideally after holding dynamic fan support and breaking wedge resistance. I have purposely shown only medium-term targets after a trend break.
Gann's trend fan is plotted on the chart, i.e. dynamic support/resistance areas for the future.
Optimism customization - L2's blockchain scaling solution ETH Crypto funds have invested a total of $267 million.
Secondary trend Time frame 3 days
OP/USDT Secondary trend. Wedge. Pivot zones. 27 07 2024OP/USDT Secondary trend. Wedge. Pivot zones. 27 07 2024
Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. A descending wedge is forming. The price is near the dynamic Gann support (reaction from it), but still in the range of the descending wedge pattern. The reaction in this resistance zone will determine the trend for the near future.
On the chart, I have specifically shown the minimum percentages of the two key reversal zones for the trend to local resistance levels, for the potential of option A and B.
Major trend.
OP/USDT Major trend. 07 2024 Time frame 1 week.
XLM/USDT Secondary trend. 14 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. After a big pump "with a stick" (so that the "waiters" who want "a little cheaper" would not have time to buy) +8.5X from the accumulation zone of 2.4 years, now a descending wedge is forming on the rollback, similar to 2017. Breaking through its resistance (breaking the downward trend) - the second wave of price growth:
1) through consolidation and sideways movement (cutting the zone, dumping "in waves").
2) aggressive pump as in 2017 "with a stick" and entry into the main distribution zone (late autumn 2025)
The previous idea of the secondary trend was published on 14 01 2024 Exactly when the position was being collected in the horizontal channel in the 4 zones shown, as well as the reversal zone and the percentage of this first strong pump (under XRP).
XLM/USDT Secondary trend. 14 01 2024
XLM/USD Main trend. Timeframe 1 week. Channel. Publication in 2022.
Local wedge breakout zone.
STRK Main Trend 12 04 2025Time frame 1 week for clarity.
Descending channel is the main trend.
Descending wedge is a secondary trend.
Showed the mid-term percentage for targeting potential profit within the channel after breaking through the wedge.
The price reached the lower zone of the descending channel of the main trend -96%.
This is conditionally the bottom for similar assets of such liquidity -95-98% . You can even say the minimums of minimums, beyond which there is only a complete scam, which is probably not distributed as an asset. Throughout the history of the formation of the descending channel, the trading volume was supported, many buybacks. The same volume is also pressuring to buy with “discounts”, what was previously poured "investments for billions of dollars" on Twitter during the listing.
Secondary trend, descending wedge and bearish trend break zone.
Time frame 3 days.
XRP now approaching buy zone at 1.55-1.60 levels as forecastedAs indicated in prior posts, XRP is now approaching the liquidity target levels at 1.55-1.60 levels as part of a final liquidity run.
Possibility exists for extended sell wave as low as 1.06 (worst case scenario imo) but most likely scenario is that 1.35-1.55 will be the zone in which the final low on the consolidation structure is formed. The next move is gearing up to be explosive towards 10$ & then on towards 100$ range once 10$ fails to hold as resistance.
I am convinced we will witness progress on towards 500's within several years (assuming comprehensive integration into financial system etc)...time will tell if we get into the 1,000's!!!
Hope this helped some of you gain (re-)entry at greater discounted levels!!
NAKAUSDTAn analysis at the height of market fear..
A situation where all markets are experiencing sharp declines due to US tariffs and Middle East tensions..
It seems that around $0.25 is the ideal area for short-term buying for $0.75 targets and the ideal time to start this upward movement is early April..
Just an analysis that may be wrong..
Phemex Analysis #70: Pro Tips to Trade Bitcoin (BTC)The past few weeks have left many traders perplexed, with Bitcoin's price ( PHEMEX:BTCUSDT.P ) fluctuating within a seemingly indecisive range. However, a broader view reveals a consistent pattern: Bitcoin has been oscillating between $92,775 and $76,555, indicating a period of market equilibrium where neither bullish nor bearish forces have gained a decisive advantage.
Adding to the complexity, the trading range has narrowed over the past week, confining Bitcoin's movement between $89,000 and $81,000. To navigate these uncertain waters, let's explore potential scenarios and develop corresponding trading strategies.
Possible Scenarios
1. Bearish Drop Below $81,000.
Given the prevailing bearish sentiment in the broader market, a downward breakout remains a strong possibility.
Pro Tips:
* If the price breaks below $81,000 with high volume, consider initiating a short position.
* Conversely, if the price breaks below $81,000 with low volume and a relatively high RSI (compared to previous drops), consider buying the dip at support levels such as $79,000 and $76,555. As this could indicate a temporary dip before a potential rebound.
2. Bullish Rise Above $89,000.
If the price breaks above $89,000 with strong volume, it would signal a potential shift in momentum, indicating a bullish breakout.
Pro Tips:
* Consider entering a long position upon a confirmed breakout above $89,000.
* Set a tight stop-loss order below the breakout point to manage risk.
* Take short term profits on $92755, $95000 or $97000.
3. Continued Consolidation.
Bitcoin could continue to consolidate between $89,000 and $81,000, creating a sideways trading range.
Pro Tips:
* Utilize grid trading bots to capitalize on the small price fluctuations within the range.
* Set long grid bots near the $81,000 support level and short grid bots near the $89,000 resistance level.
* Implement strict stop-loss orders outside the range to minimize losses in case of a breakout or breakdown.
* Be aware that consolidation periods can end with strong breakouts, so monitor volume and RSI closely.
Additional Pro Tips:
* Volume Analysis: Always pay close attention to trading volume. High volume breakouts are more reliable than those with low volume.
* RSI Divergence:Be aware of RSI divergence, as it can indicate potential trend reversals.
* Risk Management: Employ proper risk management techniques, including setting stop-loss orders and diversifying your portfolio.
Conclusion.
Navigating Bitcoin's current price action requires a blend of technical analysis and strategic thinking. By understanding the potential scenarios and implementing effective trading strategies, traders can capitalize on opportunities while minimizing risk. Remember to remain disciplined, patient, and adaptable to the ever-changing cryptocurrency market.
Tips:
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a Massive Breakout?Bitcoin's wave ((4)) has successfully completed a W-X-Y corrective formation. If Bitcoin manages to decisively break above the key resistance level of 88,826, it could trigger a powerful impulsive rally, potentially driving prices toward the next major targets at 95,250 - 99,508 - 109,176.
Additionally, the parallel channel's lower trendline is offering substantial support, preventing further downside movement. A strong breakout above this channel could significantly enhance bullish momentum, increasing the probability of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.
We will update you with further information.
FIL Secondary trend. Channel zone. 31 03 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days (less is not needed).
Main trend. Time frame 1 week.
Published more than 2 years ago 22 01 2023
FIL/USD Main trend. From the maximum of $237 -99%
In the specified range, a horizontal channel with a large % step (exactly 370%) was formed earlier (2.590 - 7.157/10.7). There have already been 3 pumping waves in this channel. From the pumping highs in the main trend, the price fell by -98.98%
Secondary trend . This horizontal channel with a step of 370% and work with trend reversal formations.
Local trend , zone of formation of a descending wedge, zone of capitulation and trend reversal.
FIL/USDT Local trend. Wedge. Price clamping . 30 06 2024
Working now with the forming descending wedge and trend reversal in case of its breakthrough.
HMSTR Main Trend. Trader's Tactics and Risk Control 01 2025Logarithm. Time interval 1 day. A triangle is being formed, almost in the final phase of its formation. The price is in its lower zone. A breakthrough of the triangle resistance is a big pump, the minimum is its % from the base.
⚠️ It is worth noting that locally there may be a “dump” under the dynamic support of the formation for collecting liquidity. Although, in fact, this has already happened a little earlier. But, if the market allows, this can happen again. Just take this into account in your risk management.
It is worth emphasizing, for those who have tolerance, that in the center of the triangle (its integral part) a double bottom with a flat top (projection of forced actions of the market maker) has formed, which, as a rule, has a very positive effect on long-term goals (they are "not" on the chart).
There is a local correction of bitcoin and the market as a projection as a whole. A good time to accumulate altcoins . This is one of the candidates for accumulation. You can buy in parts (an acceptable average price is important):
1️⃣ That is, according to the market now, the first zone. 1/3 of the volume.
If you are afraid, then wait for a breakout of the triangle , that is, a breakout of the downtrend. You can set trigger orders for a breakout so as not to “freeze” money. If on your exchange, where you trade “dinosaur functionality” (for example, Binance), then in this zone you set a regular stop loss for buying (breakout).
2️⃣ The other part (you set trigger or limit orders) as the price decreases to collect liquidity, depending on the market situation. Zone 2 is the zone where everyone sets a stop loss, that is, everything is the other way around. It is displayed as a capitulation zone.
3️⃣ Third zone — in case of deep price slippage due to low liquidity (optional and unlikely). You simply place a grid of orders.
If you use trigger orders , which do not freeze money in the order, then you can also use this volume for a breakout. That is, resistance in the form of a triangle, and in the case of a negative scenario, key resistance levels that will form when the price falls, the breakout of which determines the trend reversal.
Linear for trend clarity and formation without market noise.
Don't get stuck in the market noise, as well as in the noise of the majority opinions, which is formed by the breath of micro-market movements and news FUD of deception, which forms the anti-logic of the market behavior at the moment, radically, to the opposite, and so many times.
If, conditionally, you are isolated from all this meaningless “important”, then as a consequence, you will have: a clear mind, a healthy psyche and many times greater profit over the distance.
Always stick to your trading plan and control risks, regardless of the news flow, and the opinions of others who want to convince you and incline you to their "correct" opinion.
Your trading plan should not change from the opinion of the majority or "unforeseen market movements".
If this is observed, then admit that you have no trading plan (hard work and intelligence), and you hope for luck, like most of those who "give to the market", and in the end you drain your life energy to the “golden Baal”. It will work once, the second time, in the end, the end is still the same - a negative sacrificial emotional explosion and devastation.
That is, your luck (Fortune-Tyche-chance) will turn away from you, and emotionally rape your psyche, empty your pocket (a resource for the realization of your desires on merit earlier), and the time previously spent on "I'll risk the last time". If a person deceives himself like this, encourages himself, then the last time turns into a trip with many alternations of stops - "good" / "a little painful", to the final stop, called — "big unbearable pain") ...
W / USDT Main trend. 23 03 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Descending channel, price in local clamping in consolidation at dynamic support of the internal channel. From listing -94% at the moment.
Local percentages, medium-term and long-term to key zones of chart logic and liquidity, are shown on the chart as a guide for building your tactics and risk control.
🔴 There is potential for a decline to external support of a large descending channel (optional). I showed this option for building tactics and money management. Such assets in terms of liquidity, as a rule, decrease by 96-98%
🟢 If, from this price clamp, the price goes up , then the first resistance is the dynamic resistance of the internal channel (from which there may be a local reversal). Then the external (similarly). If the trend breaks and exits the descending channel, then strong resistance is the previous consolidation of 0.24-0.36
Locally, this clamping zone looks like this.
SGB Main Trend 17 03 2025Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. High risk, as the crypto wrapper is losing liquidity and was delisted from several exchanges. But, because of this, a high percentage of potential profit, but take into account the liquidity, and the ability to exit with a certain amount when the price rises (with pumps, liquidity decreases, which is logical).
Locally, a classic descending wedge in a horizontal channel. With clear reversal zones.
It works with a dedicated limited amount with a pre-distributed risk according to the principle of working in channels from the average purchase/sale price. You also diversify the risk by working with several similar pump/dump assets, without reference to the name of the cryptocurrency and the “value” of the project.
Only spot. For such cryptocurrencies in terms of liquidity, high local volatility for spot profit, for margin trading huge losses or liquidation. I would recommend to exit the entire position or more at the channel resistance zone, after all, the profit is significant.
TON Main trend 16 03 2025Logo of rhymes. Gann fan for understanding the logic of trend development and dynamic levels of support and resistance.
Time frame 1 week, for full orientation in the trend and potential targets. Key price reversal zones on which the trend development depends are shown with arrows. Conservative and adequate targets in the medium and long term. Everything above, as for me, should not worry you much, but this is purely my opinion, nothing more.
🟡 Pay attention how clearly the percentages of large triangles and time reversal zones are worked out according to the algorithm. Someone who is far from trading says that TA does not work on cryptocurrency.
TA is a banal logic, an exchange algorithm (you need to be tied to something), real supply/demand (market participants) and manipulative supply/demand, that is, large market participants (exchanges, funds, creators).
In the development of the trend, there is a fractal behavior of the price in the trend at the moment. Perhaps this logic will continue. The secondary, downward trend formed a wedge-shaped formation, as before.
1 day time frame
🟣 Currently locally an aggressive buyback is taking place (probably, as an excuse for the price movement, some positive news was released) from the dynamic support of the fan (on the 5-minute time frame, after the impulse-buyback, a bullish triangle was formed in consolidation, and now its goals are being realized). If after a rollback on the senior time frame (1 day, 1 week) this zone is preserved - a reversal of the secondary trend. At the moment, the price is moving within the wedge canvas, locally there is a complete absorption of the bearish candle on the weekly time frame.
🔴 Also, if there is a test of this reversal zone (less likely) , then the price can consolidate according to the logic of the descending wedge. Price consolidation, especially not overcoming the dynamic former fan support on a repeated retest — a decline to begin with to the median (red dotted line) of the range. On the chart you will see an "illogical" head and shoulders. This is an extremely unlikely scenario, but I will describe it just in case, so that you take this into account in your money management (not risk management).
USDT dominance. (USDC is similar). 03 2025Time frame 1 week. Crypto market dominance to % USDT. I showed this for the first time on 03 2022, nothing has changed since then, everything is the same and the logic is identical.
USDT dominance. USDT pumping indicator to the market 03 2022
USDT dominance. Indicator of USDT pumping to and from the market 05 2022
✔️Stablecoin dominance is falling — the market is growing.
✔️Stablecoin dominance is growing — the market is falling.
It cannot be otherwise (capital movement), until the time when ETFs with the US dollar are not massively introduced and popular, they will draw some of the liquidity to themselves. Which will slightly change the logic of this trend itself. Comparable, in terms of impact on the market, as before the introduction of trading pairs to alts/USDT instead of BTC/alts (everyone was like that). Until then, USDT was needed.
You need to understand that the main " transitional dollar for the people ", that is, USDT , - reflects the trend of all stablecoins. In particular, the main "competitor" - USDC, all the others (a temporary phenomenon) do not matter. Until USDT exists and can be used to track the direction of the money flow, that is, the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
In 2022 09, I also showed this game of liquidity flow into ideas with the combined dominance of USDC + USDT + BTC chart. But this is already a complication, everything is already visible and clear on the dominance of USDT.
Domination of USDT + USDC and lows/maxims of BTC. Correlation 2022 09
Remember, any stablecoin is an alt. The experience with UST (Moon Falling into an Urn) has taught many not to equate stablecoins to a real dollar.
The price stability of any stablecoin depends only on people's faith in its stability. This faith is projected by marketing activity, and first of all by the real capital that stands behind the creators. Everything conceived and implemented has a beginning and an end.
Bitcoin dominance to alts.
I will duplicate my latest idea on Bitcoin dominance here once again. I used it before (it was rational), before 2020 (I used to make a lot of ideas about local zones as triggers for market reversals). Now it doesn't do much. But I see people are fixated on this, not understanding the essence, and why it was so effective before and childishly clear when the market would be reversed (there were no pairs to USDT, but only alts to BTC).
Before 2018 (100% efficiency), before 2020 (partial), the dominance of Bitcoin to other alts was such an indicator of the pump/dump of the market. As it was the main direction of money flow. Almost all alts were traded only to Bitcoin.
Доминация BTC к альткоинам. Доминация стейблкоинов и памп рынка. 07 2022
Have a plan and understand what you are doing, observing money and risk management. As a result, you will be calm and satisfied with your profit from the market, if you are an adequate person.
Alt dominance.
And this is the idea of training/work (understanding the reversal zones of the crypto market of secondary trends) in 2023 on alts. That is, the dominance of alts without stablecoins, bitcoin and ether, which take away most of the market capitalization as a whole. The dominance is growing, naturally money is pouring into alta and vice versa. There are also similar ideas (look for publications in 2023) for certain groups of assets. That is, the point is to catch the hype, by groups of candy wrappers or, on the contrary, the threshold of stopping the flow of money into another hype.
BTC dominance to altcoins. Dominance of stablecoins and market pump . 07 2022
Without pain, there is no way for someone to gain benefits in the speculative market. Who will experience pain and who will gain benefits depends only on the qualities of the person who decided to engage in trading. That is, the totality of his positive/negative qualities that project his actions in the market. Everything is extremely simple and honest.
Dollar Index.
There are a series of interrelated ideas (three, detailed explanation), about the dollar index, that is, the larger cyclicality of the markets in general, and the crypto market as a small projection. Also, all publications of 2022-2023.
DXY Dollar Index USA. Recession and Pump/Dump Market Indicator 09 2022
DXY (Dollar Index) and Pump/Dump BTC. Market Cycles . 09 2022