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Factom - ENTRY on breakout or retest of trendline - FCTBTC Hi, We have a pretty good probability that this trend wants to continue. i really don't like these messy trends but considering how far we went up in the last uptrend on FCT it's worth trying to get in. Entry: the first thing i'm going to do is put in a buy order at the level shown on the chart. But I'm hoping that we will get a retest of the blue trendline (shown by the green arrows) and get in there on a bounce, as this will give a better chance of our stop not getting hit (if it's under the blue trendline). Initial stop: this will be under the lowest of the current range (shown in the chart) Exit: I'll be moving a stop up under the swing lows of the daily, and on the 4 hour if the price suddenly shoots up. What analysis I'm doing: The first thing that caught my eye is that, the current section (within the right-hand yellow box) is a carbon copy of the beginning of the last up trend (in the left yellow box) The mas are both green, have crossed over, and the price is holding above them (more or less) The drop in volume is a bit worrying, but I'd take analysis on the candles over that. Each swing low is higher than the last and seems to be holding as a new support level. the price is breaking up through the swing highs It's also worth considering that we are probably in a triangle on the larger timeframe (shown in the image below), meaning we may not have far for this trend to go before we hit the top of the triangle and move back down: Good luck with FCT guys! Mark
FLong
by MarkLudgate
2
Expanse / Bitcoin - Start of trend - Buying break upEntry: I have a buy-stop in at the top of the red box. As the price has already broken above the last four candles i could buy now, but as a general rule to avoid mistakes i like to always try and force the price to break some sort of resistance before buying. Initial stop: Stop-loss at the bottom of the red box. This is under the last low of the current move upwards. Exiting: I'll be moving a stop-loss up under the daily swing lows trying to capture as much of the trend as possible. If the price moves up too fast i'll move down to a smaller timeframe to manage the stoploss. What i'm looking for in analysis: I'm really in favour of these curves (shown by the blue line), where the price gradually slows to point it can't go lower and then gradually builds up again. In my experience they deliver much longer lasting and healthy trends. the moving averages are beginning to cross and both are green (search alma in the indicators for these) The price is holding above the moving averages and creating unbroken higher lows. The volume is beginning to pick up also Let's see what happens...good luck! Mark
ELong
by MarkLudgate
2
PascalCoin / Bitcoin - Trade management 4 - PASCBTCWell, got stopped out at the red line. Entry: If we break above the top of the far right red box (the long position indicator) I will rebuy. Stop: i'll have an initial stop at the bottom of the red box. Again this is a tight stop. We've just had a pretty big drop so people must be thinking about taking profit at this point, so I'm going to consider being more cautious from now on. however at the moment I'm going to go with a smaller stop for the reward potential. the wick on the dump candle is a good sign that there are buyers around that area. At this point it's a mixture of protecting capital form any large dumps (which could make the price drop very rapidly) and attacking the trend to get as much out of it as possible while it's good. Hope people didn't get stopped out like me! Mark
PLong
by MarkLudgate
PascalCoin / Bitcoin trade management 2 - PASCBTCHey good morning, Time to get back into PascalCoin. We're going for another break after this sideways movement. It's a little messy but basically forming a working triangle pattern enough that it's worth trying it. We're getting a consolidation of the price sideways. Getting in: We're going to buy the break of the last high, as indicated on the chart Stoploss: There are two potential stoploss placements. - Stoploss B, which is the safe version. If we're going up it's very unlikely that the price will return down past stoploss B. - Stoploss A is a more aggressive stop. But if you look back at the brevious break, once the price starts going up it pops and moves for some time, almost always not returning anywhere near the level of stoploss A. With this smaller stop we get a much better risk to reward. What am I looking for? - We're going through the motions on this PascalCoin trend. It's classic good moving crypto. We're going in and out of strong upwards moves and triangle consolidation. While this pattern keeps repeating we just need to keep buying the breakouts. - the price is almost completely respecting the larger trendline (yellow) and the moving averages. (with the exception of this last triangle - which i will take as an early warning sign that the upwards structure may be about to break) Good Luck! Mark
PLong
by MarkLudgate
2
PascalCoin / Bitcoin trade management 1Going to do two things at this point. The first is bring the stop up to the red line (0.00129). This is pretty tight but would get us out the trade with a 8:1 plus risk to reward. If we do break this point there's a good change the price will want to retrace to the larger trendline (as per the blue arrow) and I'll try and re-buy at this lower price (shown by the red circle). Basically at this point with 8:1 in the bank, if we do get stopped out i will re-buy at any point that the price begins to turn back up. In this way I protect my profit and make sure i remain in the trade, with the bonus of potentially buying lower on the way down. I prefer to keep a tight stop after a moving so far from the larger moving average as when the price comes down it often comes down fast. The second thing is to buy more at the break of the current forming range/triangle (the higher, righthand long position indicator), with an initial stop also at the red line. the only problem is that at some point I want to go to bed and won't be able to manage my stops. despite being in a good trend I don't want to sell or buy without the ability to reverse that, so if nothing has happened before i go to sleep I might cancel these orders and move the stop to somewhere reasonable on the higher timeframe. Sleeping sucks. Mark
PLong
by MarkLudgate
Re-analysing Bitcoin - LONG overall - XBTEURHi At this point I've sold half of my bitcoin at break even. We didn't get the 'pop' upwards I was hoping for. I don't like to mess around with trades once I'm in, but taking a fresh look at the latest candles, I'm feeling that the probability of a good move up immediately is against us and I'd rather protect my capital. I have a few reasons based on how I think bitcoin will move medium term and also what the short term is telling us. Medium term: The price probably needs to 'reset' before being able to move up again in a healthy trend. If we look at the current upward movement (the pink line), it seems very unlikely that the price will continue at this angle without moving back to the larger average. We can get some idea of this by looking at previous waves. After the initial move back up they tend to collapse again to the weekly average before properly resetting. Looking at previous movement there are probably to likely patterns we'll get. The first would be a triangular pattern, where the price would follow the pink line for some time and then follow the orange line before either retracing to the overall average (green arrow) or just continuing up (like the blue arrows). The second would be a slow curve back to the overall average and up (blue curved line), taking the route of of either the blue or green arrows. Short term: I was expecting the price to move higher before getting into one of these two medium term possibilities. But i'm making a decision now to sell half because the price is struggling. we're hitting what seems to be an important resistance line (the red line - points highlighted by the red circles). We're also repeatedly breaking the pink trendline and the moving averages on the lower timeframe. On top of this the volume is dropping off. really it would have been nice to see the volume increasing as this would have suggested interest and enthusiasm. So what now? For me the best action would be to wait for a proper reset. Hopefully we will get a move like the blue curve and can consider buying if the price signals a move higher near the big yellow trendline. Thanks for reading and good luck! Mark
by MarkLudgate
3
Waiting for opportunities to short ZcashRSI hit oversold and broken from its downtrend. That means that there is some room to the upside, but... Zcash's inflation rate is really high. It has also broken most support lines and the downside seems more probable. I can't see how 1 ZEC could be worth 0.05BTC with such high inflation and no real use cases. Nobody is really using its anonimity feature, which makes it only a speculative investment. At current rates, about 300.000$ worth of ZEC is mined everyday and its market cap is 21.5M. That is 1.3% inflation per day
Short
by BitcoinMacro