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Cryptoforecast

2023 Tier-1 Crypto Currency Technical Outlook Introduction When I think about Crypto in general, it’s safe to say that 2023 should be better for the sector than 2022. The term “Crypto Winter” entered the conscience of investors, and not just crypto traders, as all of tier-1 crypto lost substantial portions of their value. As the sector got so much positive news leading up to the beginning of 2022, we now have to expect the sheer amount of bad news coverage is warranted. But this trader feels, rather than “Crypto Winter” … the word “Implosion” was a far better way to characterize the last year. Sam Bankman Fried’s FTX implosion was a bookend on Do Kwon’s Terra Luna Implosion. These characters got me thinking. If Time Magazine features its “Person of the Year”, and People Magazine is famous for its “Sexiest Man Alive” issue, Crypto should publish something I would entitle “Industry A$$ho!e of the Year”. Young, Immature, Rich and associated with Crypto, proved to be the ingredients for Implosions of epic proportion in 2022. No one can determine if Satoshi Nakamoto is a real human being, so let’s hope Anatoly Yakovenko, Charles Hoskinson, Vitalik Buterin continue to be good ambassadors of their creations. Let’s recap: Crypto High Low Variance Bitcoin $48,102.62 $15,479.25 (67.82%) Ethereum $3,939.05 $883.60 (77.568%) ADA $1.639 $0.296 (81.94%) Solana $181.03 $10.94 (93.956%) In terms of Crypto’s recovery, I hope 2023 turns out to be a boring year for Crypto news. Investor sentiment is at an all-time low. Although that is an essential ingredient to major bottoms, as I have previously forecasted were at now, sentiment shift has no timeframe. What we’re waiting on is for faith in crypto currency being restored. That will take time. The way these price patterns evolve is by the time public trust returns to the crypto currency market, Tier-1 Crypto will be many multiples higher than their current price. I always find it useful to consult “Mere Mortals” about their perspective of crypto. When having those discussions, I listen to hear if they get the basic value proposition that this new industry affords. Suffice to say, I have not gotten that feeling in any of the conversations I have had. Currently, it's just too complicated. The day that society as a whole can realize the value, with no thinking effort, is the day I’ll conclude Crypto has crossed that mass adoption Rubicon. However, here’s a fun thought experiment I play over in my head from time to time. Fiat currencies are only as solid as the full faith and credit of their respective state’s financial house. Can you imagine if the global financial system had to deal with a US Debt default? Currently politicians around the globe easily play with fire around such important topics as war and peace. Russia’s invasion of their democratic sovereign neighbor is an example that is obviously in the news...but what about all the other examples that we pay little attention to. For example, in the US, politicians have more and more frequently been using the debt ceiling as a mere negotiating tool for their own legislative or cultural agendas. I’m no political science expert but I am educated in finance. So, in having one of these mere mortal conversations about Crypto the individual said to me in relation to crypto’s epic November 2022 collapse... ” at least I’m not going to wake up tomorrow and the US Dollar will be worth $.25 cents”. That got me thinking. If one day, US politicians were unsuccessful in pressing their desires to extract negotiations from an opposing political side, that the US had a technical default. A technical default is easily explained as the state has the means to pay its debt, however due to legislative missteps or bad faith negotiating, it’s prevented from making timely payments and technically defaults. Would this damage the full faith and credit of the United States? I’m sure it would have some effect on the dollar ...maybe even a devasting effect. It’s never happened. But I thought about the mere mortal's comments about not having to worry about waking up and the US dollar is at $0.25 cents. I think that outcome becomes a potential reality because of the gamesmanship of politicians who have no idea the ramifications of their actions. Does Fiat need to fail for Crypto to be advanced? Let’s hope that’s not how Crypto succeeds. But I’ll conclude on the next day of this outcome becoming a reality...I bet the notion of a decentralized system, not under the control of any state, not susceptible to the whims of low educated politicians, that is cost effective, fast and efficient, and relatively secure...becomes a really interesting alternative. Could that day be the day Buffet makes his first crypto transaction? Gaming how these events play out in the future is just speculation...but every now and then...I say to myself, "hmmmmmm, maybe". As of today, the convergence of societal needs and the crypto currency value proposition, has not happened. BUT WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH PRICE ACTION? Nothing . Warren Buffet has famously said the CC has no value, provides no utility to society, creates nothing of value. Therefore, he concludes is not a real asset and should be avoided. Before I get into my technical outlook, let me leave you with something to ponder. Value is, and has always been, perspective . The creation of fiat currency was a value story of perspective based on nothing except The Romans need to fund it's global expansion outside of the current barter system. When transacting in Egypt, the things that Romans placed value on, may not have had the same the Egyptian perspective. Therefore a unit of currency that was convertible was needed... and to oversimplify , just like that Fiat currency had it's origin story. Fiat currencies have failed in the past. But the day before they failed...they had some value. Today, a portion of society believe crypto currency has value. A smaller portion of that same population trade those currencies. Regardless of whether your perspective is crypto has no utility, no societal benefit, or any usefulness to it at all, is irrelevant. Buyers and sellers transact these coins each and every day. By doing so, they give crypto value...and that’s all you really need to understand when reading my technical forecast. Methodology As a practitioner of Elliott Wave Theory I have no mechanism for timing. Elliott Wave is one of the most credible means of forecasting price...however, when price will achieve certain levels is not one of it's principles. My methodology took into account the smaller timeframe 5 & 3-wave patterns and built on them until I got to the larger degree analysis included in this 2023 outlook. I then examine the historical timeframes for pattern completion and applied those to the future patterns. Bitcoin (BTCUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $28,200.00 PLUS Most of the year I believe, like all of crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum will advance higher but in a controlled fashion. This has more to do with trader sentiment than anything else. As confidence builds, price advances, and one builds on the other. Due to where I can assess data, (Trading-View) does not have the price data for Bitcoin since inception. I believe we’re in a wave 3 and more specifically bottom of wave ii of 3. The advance in 2023 should be associated with wave iii of 3 sub divisions. Ethereum (ETHUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $1,850.00 PLUS Solana (SOLUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $47.00 PLUS Solana has indeed incurred the most challenging year since its launch. In truth, Solana only retained 7% of it’s total value at its lowest point in 2022. However, this decline represented a super cycle wave 2 so it’s difficult to determine how deep and how long these patterns will take to complete. Back in June of 2022 I forecasted that Solana could fall to as low as $12 when price was in the $50’s. So, although I was not shocked by the price drop, it was heart pumping to see it all happen in a matter of days from the $37 level. I see 2023 more so as a rebuilding year for SOL's price. In future years it's possible these advances are accelerated. As this pattern matures dialing in more precise targets and timeframe should be less of a challenge. Cardano (ADAUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 high: $0.71 PLUS Unfortunately for ADA (based on the data contained within Tradingview.com) of the 62 months Cardano has been trading, 38 of those months was negative price action. However, I don’t think it’s fair to draw a conclusion from the fact that ADA has traded negatively 61.2% of the time. Price deterioration in 2022 was on par with BTC and ETH. In that respect it outperformed Solana, which gets more news and overall attention. I am forecasting ADA could be on the verge of recouping much of the losses it experienced in the last couple years. The most important area for ADA to attack and eclipse is the $0.70 level. Above this level and pressure on price remains up. Above this area and price could easily become parabolic.
FTX:BTCUSD
by maikisch
13
XRP : Bullish Activity In RippleXRP: Bullish Activity In Ripple This is in the analysis I shared a few days ago. Regardless of the problems created by FXT in crypto market these days we can see that not all currencies lost high liquidity. One of them is Ripple, which continues to stay above the lower support zone which is proving very strong. We can see Ripple explode very quickly as long as it is showing bullish volume in these difficult times. PS: If the price will break below 0.2890 just accept the loss as we can never know when it will stop after that zone. Thanks and good luck!
Long
by KlejdiCuni
17
XRP: Range Trading Or...XRP - Range Trading Or... Ripple is holding very strong despite the market decline from FTX. As we can see, the price has not yet reached the previous low yet and this is a good sign. It seems that all XRP fans are still holding Ripple very strongly and mostly at the moment when they are making great strides with the SEC lawsuit. The price has a higher chance than it already found the bottom and may rise again. However, we must be careful because we can never know the end of FTX and its impact on it the entire crypto industry. A price break below the structure can push it lower...so be careful. Thanks and Good Luck!
by KlejdiCuni
11
ETH Daily TA BearishETHUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% ETH, 95% CASH. Happy Veterans Day to those who served. * MASS CRYPTO DELEVERAGING WATCH. The FTX/Alameda meltdown isn't over yet, and keeps getting crazier with speculation that the troubles at Alameda Research started to amplify after the LUNA death spiral caused SBF to funnel funds from FTX to Alameda and to "altruistically" acquire the insolvent exchanges and lending firms that were overly exposed in order to protect Alameda's own FTT-collateralized loans. The fact that Alameda was essentially comprised of 9 drug-fueled lovers living in the Bahamas is astonishing enough, but even weirder is that both of SBF's parents are "regulatory compliance experts". One thing about this that perhaps changed how it all could've gone down was CZ's (Binance) involvement. I'm under the impression that the crypto crash wouldn't have been so sudden and widespread if CZ wouldn't have tweeted about FTX's struggles, how he was looking to rescue them and then labeling them beyond rescue all within the span of two days. I totally get that CZ likely did it for brand posturing and marketing but he may have also benefited from the massive price increase to BNB after the initial tweet offering to acquire FTX. Fair game though. It's a bit too early to try to predict the end of this mass deleveraging that is currently taking place throughout the Crypto industry and more industry players may go down from this in the coming days, so it's suggested to stay in cash until there's some kind of light at the end of the tunnel. The UofM November Consumer Sentiment Index is 54.7, down from 59.9 in October and likely reflective of the political shift from the Midterm elections. Key Upcoming Dates: Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01 ; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . * Price is currently testing $1270 minor resistance for the third consecutive session after breaking below the 50MA and the uptrend line from June 2022. Volume finished yesterday's session High (moderate) and is currently on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red; Price is currently testing the second largest VP supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1600, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 40 after forming a peak at 43 and will likely aim to test the uptrend line from November 2018 at 37 support in the coming sessions. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 33 with no signs of peak formation, it's still technically testing 23 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -25 as it approaches -46 minor support with no signs of trough formation. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 32 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout above $1270 minor resistance then it will likely aim to formally retest the 50MA at ~$1395 as resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely formally retest $1k minor support before potentially falling lower to $776 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1300.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
Luna 2.0 : Price May Retest $6.8 Again Luna 2.0 : Price May Retest $6.8 Again As of June 2022, Luna is trading within an Accumulation Zone located between 1.5475 - 2.6610. After the price broke out of this area on September 09, ,2022 we saw the price rising by approximately +280% Later, the price moved back down to the middle of the zone after the first sell-off and no it is trying to bounce back up. The price could make another strong upward move considering the strong speculative moves associated with LUNA. Targets I'm looking at: 3.4668 3.8090 4.5848 6.8217 Thank you and Good Luck!
Long
by KlejdiCuni
15