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Ethereum forecast / Signal updateAs you can see, the price entered a neutral channel since last night. Now we see two paths for the price, ascending and descending depending on the conditions (it is 50-50). If the resistance breaks at the top of the channel and the break is confirmed, it will continue to move bullish. In case of failure of support at the bottom of the channel, the direction will be changed and bearish. The probability is 50-50 in terms of technical analysis, but in terms of fundamentals and of course the volume of buyers, I think it is 60% bullish.
by Arash-RK
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BullishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% BTC, 30% Cash. * WEEKEND RALLY WATCH . San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated today that though inflation is coming down they still have a long way to go before bringing Core PCE down to the Fed's 2% target; she also stated that her base case for September 21st is a 50bps rate hike and that she sees the EOY FFR being just under 3.5%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin mentioned today that until the Fed sees a sustained period of inflation under control (by seeing 'real' borrowing costs move above zero), that they will have to continue raising FFR into 'restrictive territory'. As expected, they will be watching July PCE numbers on 08/26, the August Employment Situation on 09/02, August CPI on 09/13 and August PPI on 09/14 before the big decision on 09/21. After announcing a partnership with Coinbase last week, BlackRock (the world's largest asset manager) announced yesterday that they would be opening a private trust to provide institutional clients with direct exposure to Bitcoin. Key dates next week: US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 830am EST 08/16; 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 915am EST 08/16 ; US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17.* Price is currently attempting to break above $24180 minor resistance; breaking above this level would confirm an Ascending Triangle breakout which would likely take Price to $27-28k (which coincides with the descending trendline from November 2021). Volume remains Moderate and fairly balanced between buyer and seller dominance recently, indicative of a consolidative period before moving higher. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $22750, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 as it attempts to reclaim support at the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 and flip 57 resistance to support as well. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 87 with no signs of peak formation as it attempts to flip 78 resistance to support. MACD remains bullish and is trending up slightly at 474 but risks reverting to a bearish crossover at 375 the more that it trends sideways; it's currently hovering just above 313 support and the next resistance is at 890. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 20 as Price continues to attempt to break above $24180 minor resistance, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout above $24180 minor resistance and turn it to support, it will likely test the Ascending Triangle breakout target of ~$28k as resistance which should coincide with the descending trendline from November 2021. However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle at $27k as support before potentially falling lower to retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at $20k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $22.5k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA BullishBTCUSD Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% BTC, 10% Cash . * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are enjoying a mixed weekend with altcoins getting most of the gains while BTC and ETH stay relatively flat. The Sunday/Monday volatility seems to be rather tempered this weekend and it's reasonable to expect for more bullishness if Futures open green at 5pm today. Key dates this week: US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 830am EST 08/16; 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 915am EST 08/16 ; US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17; FOMC Minutes 2pm EST 08/17 .* Price is currently breaking out above $24180 minor resistance after closing above it for the second consecutive session, the Ascending Triangle breakout is currently in play. Volume remains Moderate and is on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green; this in conjunction with the attempted breakout is bullish. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $22.7k, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 63 after reclaiming support of the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 at 58 and flipping 57 resistance to support; the next resistance is at 70. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently on the verge of testing max top. MACD remains bullish and continues trending up slightly at 580, the next resistance is at 890. ADX is currently trending up at 22 as Price is attempting to breakout of the Ascending Triangle, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to continue up here, the next likely target is the Ascending Triangle breakout target of ~$28k as resistance which coincides with the descending trendline from November 2021. However, if Price breaks back down below $24180, it will likely retest the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle at ~$23k as support before potentially falling lower to retest the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at $20k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $22.5k .
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BullishETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% ETH, 35% Cash . * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are enjoying a weekend rally as more Risk-On investors shake off inflation and rate hike concerns while continuing to jump back into markets. However, several major cryptos are currently testing critical resistances so we may see some volatility at these levels over the next couple of sessions. The merge is estimated to be launched on Ethereum's Mainnet ~09/15/22 . As always during weekend rallies, be wary of a potential Sunday/Monday sell off heading into a relatively tame week. Key dates next week: US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 830am EST 08/16; 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 915am EST 08/16; US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17.* Price is currently testing $2k psychological support and is still technically testing $1941 resistance; if it can close above $1941 in today and tomorrow's session it will confirm a flip to support. Volume is Moderate and currently on track to favor buyers for four consecutive sessions (seven of the past ten sessions have been buyer dominant). Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1574, this margin is mildly bearish (20%+). RSI has reclaimed the uptrend line from 06/18 as support at ~67 and is currently testing the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 at ~72 as resistance; the next resistance is at 77. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 124 with no signs of peak formation as it approaches a retest of the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~137. ADX is currently trending up at 32 as Price continues to trend up, this is bullish. If Price is able to close above $1941 in both today and tomorrow's session, then the next likely target is a retest of the 50/50 uptrend line from February 2017 which should coincide with the 200 MA at ~$2200 . However, if Price breaks down below $1941, it will likely retest $1700-$1800 . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1941.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BullishETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% ETH, 25% Cash . * All US CPI numbers beat estimates this morning and Overall CPI stayed flat at 8.5%, causing Cryptos, Equities, Commodities and the 30yr Treasury Bond to go up. Meanwhile the VIX, DXY and all other Treasuries are falling. Markets are continuing to push the narrative of 'Peak Inflation' and 'Incoming Fed Pivot' as we near US midterm elections, this is driving investors to become more Risk-On. Overall CPI staying flat can be largely attributed to the White House finally deciding to tap in to the Strategic Oil Reserve (in addition to OPEC+ increasing output) last month, bringing gas prices down 19% from their ATH in July. Core CPI (which excludes energy and food) was still up 0.3% (compared to 0.5% estimated). The fourth GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate released this morning is +2.5%, up from the previous estimate (08/04/22) of +1.4%; this likely added bullishness to today's session. Coinbase missed on earnings and revenue in Q2 and posted a $1b loss due to the ongoing 'Crypto Winter'. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that he supports a 4% FFR in 2023 and EOY FFR of 3.25%-3.5% for 2022, and that today's CPI reading was encouraging but that the next Employment Situation and PCE numbers will help determine whether or not inflation is really slowing. The Merge is currently scheduled for launch on Ethereum's Mainnet on 09/13/22 . Key dates this week: Disney Q3 earnings today at 430pm EST; PPI at 830am EST 08/11.* Price is currently breaking out above $1711 minor resistance and will look to retest $1941 resistance in the coming sessions if it can flip $1711 minor resistance to support. Volume is Moderate (high) and favoring buyers which indicates that this breakout has some momentum. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1477, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 06/18/22 as resistance at ~66, if it can reclaim support here this would be bullish. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 61 after bouncing abruptly at 53, the next resistance is at 81. MACD is currently crossing over bullish at 96 after trading sideways for 6 consecutive sessions, if it holds then the next resistance is the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~137 (just below 155 resistance). ADX is currently trending up slightly at 29 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to establish support at $1711 minor resistance then the next likely target is a retest of $1941 resistance . However, if Price breaks back below $1711 minor resistance , it will likely retest ~$1600 before potentially retesting $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1692 .
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% BTC, 60% Cash . * CPI REPORT WATCH . In line with the recent enforcement advancements that were promised by provisions regarding cybercrime in the Consolidated Appropriations Act in March 2022 , the US Treasury Department has banned US citizens from interacting with Tornado Cash (a crypto mixer service) due to national security reasons stemming from its history of usage by a North Korean hacking group called Lazarus. The CHIPS Act finally got signed into law today but it didn't help semiconductor stocks much as most of them finished the session lower along with the broader market. VIX, Gold and Treasuries are up as the market prepares for tomorrow's CPI report at 830am EST. Key dates this week: COIN earnings at 530pm EST 08/09; 4th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am (EST) 08/10; CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10 ; Disney earnings 08/10; and PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11.* Price is currently trending down at $23.1k after getting rejected at $24180 minor resistance for a third time in three weeks, though seemingly bearish, if Price is able to defend support at the uptrend line from 07/18/22 (~$22k) then an Ascending Triangle formation would be valid. Volume is Moderate (high) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers over the past few sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $22641, this margin is bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 53 after being rejected by the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 (as resistance) at 57 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~50. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish just above 55.55 support. MACD is currently trending sideways at 313 support, there is a slight tilt to the downside but it's almost perfectly neutral which indicates that this is a critical resistance for Price (also reflected in Volume Profile). ADX is currently trending sideways at 18 as Price is trading sideways, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to break out above $24180 minor resistance then it will likely retest the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~28k (as resistance). However, if Price continues to trend down here, the next likely target would be a retest of the uptrend line from 06/17/22 at ~$22k . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180 .
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Cautiously BullishETHUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 87% ETH, 13% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH (SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES) . Cryptos are enjoying a weekend rally leading up to anticipated volatility this week with PMI (08/01) and Unemployment (08/05) numbers scheduled to report. Economic outlook aside, risk-on investors continue to creep back into Ethereum prior to the expected launch of the Merge on mainnet 09/12 . ETH has a major resistance ahead at $1941 (in addition to $2k psychological resistance) so it would be prudent for traders to be mindful of position size on the first test of it. Key dates this week: July Final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI estimate at 9:45am EST (08/01); BLS Employment Situation at 830am EST (08/05).* Price is currently forming an Ascending Triangle as it tests $1711 minor resistance for a third consecutive session. Volume is currently Moderate (low) and on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session, this is only mildly bearish considering the volume has dropped in both sessions which is indicative of profit taking. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1373, this margin (25%) is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 67, the next resistance is the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 at ~72; the next support is the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~60. Stochastic remains bullish for a third consecutive session and is currently trending up at 87 as it breaks above 81 resistance; the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 314 as it approaches a retest of the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~136 (just below 155 major resistance). ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to breakout above $1711 minor resistance then the next likely target is a retest of $1941 resistance for the first time since 05/30/22; $1941 resistance is a major resistance because it served as support from April 2021-May 2022. However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely find a bit of support at $1550 before potentially retesting $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1596.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy