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ADA VS BTC: Where will ADA go - Relative Strength Show DownWho bought ADA because it would "KILL ETH!" Who is still holding that ADA because "there's still a chance!" If so read on my dear friend. In this post, we will explore some of the signs that show us the strengths and weaknesses of Cardano (ADA) over time compared to Bitcoin. In this way, we can continue our mini-series of exploring the relative strength of a secondary asset VS a primary asset, and from this do two very important things: A) Understand probable outcomes based on the primary asset B) Temper expectations and understand probable profit taking areas on the secondary asset. TL:DR - Bitcoin has a much stronger structure relative to ADA and so ADA is much less likely to break all-time highs than bitcoin is. Right, time to launch in. In a previous post, I compared the strength of Bitcoin vs the weakness of Cardano. In crypto as with any other 'correlated market', groups of assets tend to follow one primary driver or asset. For the precious metal market, if Gold goes up this usually means Silver goes up. Just like when America sneezed & the rest of the world's markets caught a cold during the 2008 US housing market crash, when Big Bad Boy Bitcoin moves the rest of the crypto market usually moves with it. So what information can we gain from the fact that primary and secondary assets are locked in a delicate dance? Relative Strength. Relative strength is defined pretty straightforwardly in trading - the amount of capital flowing in/out of an asset compared to the amount of capital flowing in/out of another asset. If the primary asset increases 10% over the course of a month and the secondary asset increases 20%, that means that capital is favouring the secondary asset. For whatever reason, investors are happier to put their money into the secondary asset than the primary and so we can simply say: The secondary asset is acting stronger than the primary. Because trends in markets tend to continue longer than they don't, this means that going forward we can then say: probability will favour the secondary asset continuing to outperform the primary. The same is true in reverse: If a primary asset increases 10%, and a secondary asset only increases 5% then the relative strength of the secondary asset is weaker than the primary. Probability then favours the primary asset being stronger in the future and so you should trade according to this context. Applying this very simple understanding of correlated assets to Bitcoin and Cardano we now need to scroll back in time. What we see is a story emerging of two intertwined partners whose strengths, compared to each other, ebbs & flow. Through this, we can answer our two very important points introduced above: (A) Undersatnd probable outcomes based on the primary asset, (B)Temper expectations and understand probable profit taking areas on the secondary asset. Lets take a look at the chart for this post. Each number bellow correlates to the number on the chart. Bitcoin is represented through the Orange line while Cardano is the candlesticks: 1: Here we see Bitcoin trends bullish, reaching a high well before Cardano. As money flowed into Crypto it favoured the most well known of all coins but as profits began to be realised and capital flooded through the crypto space, it spread out from our primary asset to secondary assets. Cardano quickly caught up and while Bitcoin fiddled around with 57k for 3 months ADA paused with it, eventually exploding to $2. Nothing very special about this story, many alts experienced this same "alt season". 2: Now this is where things get interesting. While Bitcoin plummeted from point 1 (57k to 30k) it dragged the entire crypto space with it, yet unlike many weaker alts, as Bitcoin softly rallied from 32k to 51k between July and August 2021 Cardano again exploded. By breaking its all-time high before Bitcoin this showed us that capital was favouring Cardano and so its relative strength to Bitcoin was much stronger. We don't need to know why capital favoured Cardano - maybe the technology was maturing really well, or there was a lot of new developments - all we need to see is that it did. At this stage professional traders and retail alike had the technical evidence to buy ADA as probability heavily favoured such a strong asset continuing higher ESPECIALLY if the primary asset continued to show signs of strength. 3: And that is exactly what happened - Bitcoin went on to break its highs yet... wait.. what did Cardano do? It did nothing. This was the first sign of major weakness in the coin. For whatever reason, not only had it pulled back heavily when Bitcoin sold off in September but it failed to reactivate any bullish trend EVEN WHEN the primary asset was breaking all time high and the news/money flowing into crypto would have been at a peak. In this situation danger rose as, if money began flowing out of Bitcoin - the strongest, most well known of all crypto - then Cardano would suffer even more. 4: And that is what happened. Cardano failed to bounce as Bitcoin broke all-time highs and when the enthusiasm of this fell away Cardano fell even harder. Step 3 was an early warning sign that risk was rising with Cardano as its relative strength to the primary asset had been significantly undermined. Fast forward a few months later and we see this trend continuing today. With Bitcoin creating a higher high above 36k compared to the 30k of 2021, buyers have shown they are extremely eager to buy a more expensive Bitcoin than what it was worth back in 2021. Even after all the fear, uncertainty and doubt, the value of Bitcoin is considered by the market to be higher now than last year. Should the same conditions that led to Bitcoin breaking its all-time high in Nov 2021 emerge as the FUD subsides, then probability heavily favours Bitcoin breaking all time highs again. But what about Cardano? Here buyers failed to step in, instead of waiting for LOWER prices than a year ago and breaking the major support of $1. While this certainly doesn't mean Cardano will keep dropping it does mean that we should note that ADA has shown extreme weakness, gauging the relative strength of the asset and saying "Well if Bitcoin heads on up from here, because the relative strength of Cardano is weaker than Bitcoin, it is much less likely to go as far (and break an all time high). And with that we can answer (A) and "Understand probable outcomes based on the primary asset": - The probable outcome is that Bitcoin if Bitcoin increases in value, it will likely increase more in value compared to ADA as the story of Bitcoin is one of strength and the story of ADA is one of initial strength but then weakness. So now what about (B) - How does the above conclusion "temper expectations and help us understand probable profit taking areas on the secondary asset?" As the relative strength of Cardano has shown itself to be weaker than Bitcoin, can you really expect Cardano to go to $4-5-10 (which would be a 200%+ increase in value at the very least) if Bitcoin doesn't increase the same, if not more, during the same time? Will we really see Bitcoin go to 200k? No. I mean, like, maybe but is it more probable than not? No its very improbable. In trading, you can ONLY care about being consistently profitable - this means that, like a poker player, you MUST try to have probability on your side in all instances. That is the golden rule of trading, so why gamble on Bitcoin doing a x2/3/5 in value and becoming worth more than the entire Gold market and then take an additional gamble and hope the developers for Cardano surprise everyone and overtake ETH to be the dominant layer 2 solutions. Objectively both of those assumptions are extremely improbable. And with that we now have our answer to (B) - Yes ADA can triple in value but it is extremely improbable and so major profit-taking should be done at crucial levels before that. In this case, look to the 61/78% fibs as these traditionally act as major resistances in assets that are trending bullish but pausing to take a breather. The technology of ADA is great, the potential is there but the timing is still a few years away. It took ETH over a decade to become what it is and so expecting the same from Cardano in a few years is just outright gambling and unrealistic. With that in mind, seeing as we are well into the Crypto major bull cycle (having started back in 2020) we are unlikely to have enough time for Cardano to mature in technology to increase its value to higher than that of the speculation seen in May 2021. As such, profit taking should be taken between the 61-78% fibs ($2.25 - $2.6). If price breaks below $1 again while Bitcoin is accelerating towards all time highs then reducing risk or closing the position might be viable considering probability of seeing $0.16 - $0.4 significantly rises. Will there be short term bounces in this scenario? Ofcourse, but your money would be better served elsewhere. Be patient, stoic and objective in your trades. P NOTE: I would not be here without the incredible lessons I have learned from my past teachers. I can not offer the same level of market coverage or substantial knowledge as these guys. I learnt what I know from MarcPMarkets/Goldbug1 at 'Greenbridge Investing' & Phil through 'Pro_Indicators' so go check them out. PLEASE DO NOT USE THIS POST AS A CALL FOR ACTION. IF YOU ARE INEXPERIENCED, READ THIS AND DECIDE TO OPEN A TRADE THAT IS EXACTLY THE BEHAVIOUR I AM ENCOURAGING YOU NOT TO DO. Go away, learn technical analysis and probability trading, learn a strategy and practise that. Invest in yourself as you aren't investing otherwise.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by MarcusAurelius161
Bitcoin - short term predictionHello traders, Here is what I see currently on the charts for Bitcoin: - We are right below another horizontal resistance here, forming a triangle pattern, which most likely will be broken to the upside; - The weekend is also almost here, which always means manipulation and low volumes - this could lead us to a retest of the lower band of the triangle at around 40 000$, but I don't see it as much likely option; - The most probable scenario is breakout to the upside today and a red sideways action on the weekend, acting as a retest of the horizontal resistance. There is also a small resistance box between 0.382 Fibonacci level and the triangle; Bitcoin is currently above some very major resistances - 50MA and 100MA on the daily + 21EMA on the weekly, which is a sign of a market recovery. I would like to see a retest of the 21EMA before going up. Take care of yourself and trade safe!
Long
by HAVEcrypto
5
Crypto Fair Value Logarithmic downside approx. 22% from hereGuys, when in doubt, zooming out! The green line is the lifetime fair value logarithmic channel. Despite all the turmoil, the total crypto market should not drop below $1.28 trillion. This is approximately a 22% downside from here. The price action is usually way above the fair value. Even though the price action has been trending sideways and down since mid 2021, however, the logarithmic fair value of total crypto market-cap, by definition, TRENDS UP. TIME is on our side. So relax, take a chill pill, consolidate some of your more risky shitcoins into Bitcoin and stable coins, take a deep breath and wait to see if we actually hit the worst case scenario. Frankly, I have been DCA-ing heavily lately. Not much lower we can go. - @Loniwood Twitter: @Loniwood
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by LoniChowdhury
CRYPTO and Bitcoin due for a big bounceChart Overview The chart overview shows the total market cap for cryptocurrency. Here are a few points to make on why I believe Crypto and Bitcoin price is due for an upswing reversal. 1) The price has been moving down in a reducing wedge pattern. 2) The price bounced from a key price point (1.992 trillion dollars, the light blue line) 3) Bitcoin also shows strong confluence with july 2021 prices which suggests a bounce is imminent 4) A previous reducing wedge pattern resulted in september resulted in a fairly extended bullish rally for Crypto 5) Bitcoin Prices are very low, although not registering at bargain prices on the RSI yet, it still almost 30k down from ATH, it's quenstionable if the bears have any strength to bring Bitcoin and Crypto lower, it took a lot of effort to pass the 43k barrier. What do you guys think? Is a bounce imminent or have we got more low prices ahead? Thanks for reading. DISCLAIMER: NOT PROFESSIONAL ADVICE
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by cmpkpersonal
2
BTC/USD: A Christmas Weekend Study FUNDAMENTAL BACK-DROP *Imho, if there was ever a time to expect fireworks, it's right now. *Weekend trading session for the next ~2 days. Institutions and majority of players are offline for Christmas day and/or weekend. Perfect environment for fuckery. *US holidays, and Christmas in particular, are proven to be powerful market events. (Often see pivots in price/sentiment through these windows). *"Buy when it snows, sell when it goes." - it's that time of year! **Recent CME event (listing ETH micro futures ) on Dec. 6 **Positive reaction from most recent FOMC meeting on Dec. 15 **Recent full moon phase change on Dec. 20 LOWER-TIME-FRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS *Structurally, price is trading within a megaphone pattern (making higher highs and lower lows). This implies high volatility in both directions until the megaphone is resolved. *Certainly trading against some key highs right now (top end of the range). In good shorting/selling location right now for people who think this rally into Christmas is bulslhit. HIGHER-TIME-FRAME TECHNICAL CONTEXT *Price is coming awfully close to triggering a major double bottom , drawn off the 1D chart. (The counter-trend rally high following Dec. 4 liquidation cascade). *$51,995 is the level to watch. I'm officially "uber-bull" if we start closing above this level. *Bullish momentum divergence confirmed ( MACD ) and continuing to build on the 1D chart. -- LIKE THE ANALYSIS? Send me a DM . I'd like to build a community of half decent traders and technicians.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bitflip01
1
BTC/USD: Keep an eye on this breakout!What’s up guys and welcome to my profile, my name is Gianni and today I’m going to analyse the BTC/USD, trying to translate the market information with a full technical analysis on different time frames perspectives. For a better understanding of my short BIAS, let’s have a quick look on the monthly timeframe: A couple of months ago, a strong bullish pressure, pushed the price up, as you can see the bullish green candle, breaking to the upside an interesting resistance level, reaching almost the level 70k for the first time. The market is now retracing back and retesting the previous resistance currently turned into support. We still have 22 days before the end of this monthly candle, but overall from this perspective, the market is bearish. Switching to the weekly timeframe: The market broke the ascending trendline that worked quite good as a dynamic support during the last 5 months, and its now retesting the area. The second last bearish candle shows a great shadow, this is a clue that on the level 40k we still could find long pending orders ready to try to push the price up again. Let’s focusing on this specific situation having a look on the daily timeframe: As you can see in the chart, the price has been following a descending channel since the beginning on November, few doji candles are a sign of market indecision, and considering the retest of the trendline on a monthly support zone, there is a good possibility to see a bearish continuation. Finally back to the 4h timeframe: A strong bearish movement to the downside is getting now a correction, forming an interesting flag just around the 0.50% of Fibonacci retracement, a possible sign of market continuation. Considering the overal bearish market, before to plan my short position I will be waiting for a breakout of this pattern, looking for a good entry point with RRR at least 1:2 or greater on the retest of the flag. A breakout of this pattern to the upside would invalidate my considerations for this trade. If you enjoy this trade idea, support my work with a thumb up and don’t forget to follow my profile for more detailed technical analyses! Trade safe and responsibly, Gianni DISCLAIMER Please note the views are not investment advice and should be used only for educational purpose
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn18552923
1
ETHBTC Forecast based on Cycle HistoryI charted this on 20 May and had not looked at it since. What I wanted to know was should I be holding more BTC, or more ETH? What will grow more according to the charts regardless of my opinion of their fundamentals or adoption ? If the charts are a representation of the psychology of the masses, then psychology tells us : the best prediction for future behavior is past behavior. Thus, I'm a big believer price action rhyming with previous BTC halving cycles. You've probably heard chartists say "history rhymes but never repeats" While I am aware that ETH was just getting started in the markets peak in 2017/2018... and it will likely far outperform BTC, I have charted a conservative forecast mimicking the previous cycle. I've pointed out the previous ATH of BTC and ETH as well as where I think we can expect them in the months to come. The past 2 seem to have been on track in a general sense. Let me know your thoughts
by THE-GERA
3