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BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior. --- Historical Context: Previous Cycles 3rd Halving – May 11, 2020 Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months: - 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000. - This was followed by a significant correction. - 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections. Cycle Completion – Price Reversion By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase. --- Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024 We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle : - Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event. - If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect: - A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K. - A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase. --- Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving) Using the same temporal framework: - By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K. - This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion . - It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion. --- The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic - Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent : - Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving . - Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving. - These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles . --- Final Thoughts This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026. Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain . What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
by Louigi_24
67
INJ at Key Support – Will History Repeat?INJ/USDT Weekly Chart Analysis INJ is currently trading at a crucial technical level, touching the strong rising support line of a long-term ascending channel. Historically, this trendline has acted as a reliable base for strong upward reversals. The Stochastic RSI is also deeply oversold, similar to the levels seen during previous bottoms in early 2022 and early 2023 — both of which led to significant rallies. If the support holds, INJ could be poised for another upward move toward the key resistance line of the channel. However, a breakdown below this support would invalidate the structure and could lead to further downside.
Long
by unichartz
BTC Breakout or Bull Trap? Key Confirmation Levels Ahead If you're leaning bullish, it's more prudent to wait for a confirmed breakout above 88,000, followed by a weekly close above the 86,000 level. Ideally, a successful retest should hold within the 85,000–86,000 range to validate the breakout structure. Any failure to hold this zone on the retest would likely signal a fake out which, given current price action and resistance pressure, remains a high-probability scenario in my view. Bitcoin faced a sharp decline to the 75,000 level following the announcement of tariffs, which triggered panic and heightened uncertainty across the crypto market. Currently, BTC is attempting to reclaim the key 85,000 resistance zone. However, a descending trendline is capping upward momentum, adding to the difficulty of a clean breakout. A decisive weekly close above 86,000 could invalidate the bearish setup and open the door for bullish continuation till 100-108K. Conversely, failure to break and close above this level would likely lead to a swift drop toward the 71,000 support zone, with minimal structural support in between. A weekly close below the 85,000 level would confirm bearish continuation, opening the door for a retest of the 72,000 support zone — a key structural level that previously acted as a demand area. Failure to hold above 72,000 could invalidate the current range and trigger a deeper correction toward the prior macro support around 55,000. Based on current momentum and price structure, a move toward the 55,000 region appears increasingly probable in the near term.
Short
by wickywicks
ETH - LOWER LOWS incoming - SELL OFF CONTINUESETH - Lower Lows possibly ahead given current BEARISH MARKET STRUCTURE. From the break out below the channel, to the RETEST & CONTINUATION of BEARISH MOMENTUM / SELLS - there is a high chance these Red Candles will extend to the next PYSHC LEVEL OF 1,250 1,000 & POSSIBLY TOUCH 750. From there I'd prefer not to predict but I would not be surprised of a massive Bull Run off of those KEY LEVELS. SAFE SL - ABOVE 2,000 TP1 - 1,674 - HIT TP2 - 1,250 TP 3 - 800
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by PurePassionFX
ETH Long Term Prediction - Ethereum Game Plan ETH broke the bullish weekly structure and is currently retracing lower. I don’t see any signs of strength on the chart yet. I expect the price to first hit $1250 and see a rejection there a possible bounce. However, the real target is $870 (2022 low). That level holds significant liquidity, so I expect it to be taken out, triggering a potential capitulation. I’ll be looking for spot buys and long-term long setups in anticipation of another possible bull run.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by UA_CAPITAL
Bitcoin Prediction - Crypto MarketBitcoin has broken the weekly structure to the downside, and we’ve been bearish since then. However, the monthly chart still looks bullish, and I expect the price to return to the monthly demand zone and get a reaction from there. I believe the crypto market could turn bullish again by the end of summer 2025. Possible scenario: We short from the current levels down to the monthly demand zone, sweeping the engineered weekly liquidity (by 'engineered,' I mean a level designed to push price higher). That level is around $67,000. I’ll be watching for LTF confirmations to take longs from that zone. Most likely, the monthly demand zone will hold and send us toward new all-time highs.
by UA_CAPITAL
2
Bitcoin Weekly For The Value Hunters & Range Enjoers. With lack of significant bid in the books until 70k. Ideally we drop to value sooner than later & gather demand with a range through summer. Supply has been chasing price down, with perps traders off loading latest positions yesterday in the US session. This will be painful to most crypto traders but good for range trade enjoyers & spot value hunters. Key levels: 70/71k Weekly & this is both spot & perps largest resting order blocks in the order books.
by Speculator_Nick
Daily BITCOIN Bull Bear candles showing return of the Bulls ?I have used this chart often and have posted it here on a number of occasions with out the Bull Power Bear Power Histogram by CEYHUN active. This is how the chart Looks when it is active. This indicator calculates trading action to determine if a Candle is Bullish or Bearish and is VERY ACCURATE And, Currently, Today's candle is GREEN, for the first time in a LONG TIME. We can see how the candles have remained RED for most of the Drop in channel. But now, while we sit on support on a Fib Speed Resistance Fan, we are GREEN. Long Term, we can see that the climb back to current ATH could be tough. The VRVP on the right is clearly showing rising levels of resistance we climb higher. Currently, we need to watch closely, to see that candle remain Green and that we do not loose support here. I feel Bullish
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Dogecoin Daily Chart Analysis: A Fresh Start Ahead ?Hello friends, let's analyze Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency, from an Elliott Wave perspective. This study uses Elliott Wave theory and structures, involving multiple possibilities. The analysis focuses on one potential scenario and is for educational purposes only, not trading advice. We're observing the daily chart, and it appears we're nearing the end of Wave II, a correction. The red cycle degree Wave I ended around 2024 December's peak. Currently, we're nearing the end of red Wave II, which consists of black ((W)), ((X)), and ((Y)) waves. Black ((W)) and ((X)) are complete, and black ((Y)) is nearing its end. Within black ((Y)), we have Intermediate degree blue (W), (X), and (Y) waves. Blue (W) and (X) are complete, and blue (Y) is nearing its end. Inside blue (Y), red A and B are complete, and red C is nearing its end. Once red C completes, blue (Y) will end, Once blue (Y) completes, means black ((W)) will end that means higher degree cycle wave II in red will end. If our view remains correct, the invalidation level for this Elliott Wave count is 0.04913. If this level holds and doesn't touch below it, we can expect a significant reversal to unfold wave III towards new highs. This is an educational analysis, and I hope you've learned something by observing the chart and its texture. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Education
by RK_Chaarts
4
Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a Massive Breakout?Bitcoin's wave ((4)) has successfully completed a W-X-Y corrective formation. If Bitcoin manages to decisively break above the key resistance level of 88,826, it could trigger a powerful impulsive rally, potentially driving prices toward the next major targets at 95,250 - 99,508 - 109,176. Additionally, the parallel channel's lower trendline is offering substantial support, preventing further downside movement. A strong breakout above this channel could significantly enhance bullish momentum, increasing the probability of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. We will update you with further information.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Money_Dictators
3
Cronos is on the move, Could we see it hit $1 soon?The chart is a weekly candlestick chart of CRONOS (CRO) against USD on TradingView, showing price action from late 2023 to a projected point in 2025. Let’s break down the key elements: Price Movement and Trend: CRONOS experienced a notable peak around mid-2024, reaching approximately $0.24000, followed by a sharp decline. After the peak, the price entered a downtrend, forming a descending triangle pattern, which is typically bearish but can lead to a breakout in either direction. The price has since stabilized in an "Accumulation Zone" between $0.07197 and $0.08925, with the current price at $0.08925 as of April 1, 2025. Descending Triangle Pattern: The descending triangle is defined by a downward-sloping resistance line (yellow) and a horizontal support line around $0.08925. This pattern often signals a potential breakout. A break above the resistance could indicate a bullish reversal, while a break below support might lead to further downside. The resistance line is currently around $0.13000 to $0.15000, based on the slope. Accumulation Zone: The price is in an "Accumulation Zone" between $0.07197 and $0.08925, suggesting that buyers are holding this level and potentially accumulating positions. Multiple tests of this support level indicate strong buying interest, which could set the stage for a breakout if bullish momentum builds. Target Projection (TG 1S): The chart projects a target labeled "TG 1S" at $0.42000, a significant increase from the current price. This target is likely based on the height of the descending triangle pattern added to the breakout point, a common technical analysis method. However, reaching $1 (as requested) would require a much larger move, approximately an 11x increase from the current price of $0.08925. Support and Resistance Levels: Key support is at $0.07197, with the current price at $0.08925. Resistance from the descending triangle is around $0.13000 to $0.15000, with a previous high at $0.17018. A break above $0.17018 could open the door to higher levels, but reaching $1 would require sustained momentum and likely strong fundamental catalysts. Historical Context and Feasibility of $1: CRONOS reached an all-time high of around $0.96 in November 2021 during a crypto bull market, so $1 is within historical precedent. However, the current market environment (as of April 2025) would need to see significant bullish momentum, possibly driven by broader crypto market trends, adoption of the Cronos ecosystem, or major developments in the Crypto.com platform (which CRONOS is tied to). The $0.42000 target is a more immediate goal, but $1 would require an extraordinary rally, likely over a longer timeframe. Timeframe: The chart extends into mid-2025, and the $0.42000 target appears to be a medium-term projection. Reaching $1 might take longer, potentially into late 2025 or beyond, depending on market conditions.
CRYPTO:CROUSDLong
by sohaibfx