Let's interpret what is happeningSo when BTC is doing something just like any asset it is throwing off signals, with experience you learn to understand the signals.
Right now it has been more difficult for price to go down than up. It is clear that BTC wants to retrace to the 61.8 of the entire 2019 move which puts it around $7300.00 so why has it taken so long? Well... what has been happening is that anytime there is a sell-off (which is trying to get to the $7300 price) there is an almost equal amount of buyers (Stopping the drop or making the price go up). We need to get to the trigger point where a big sell-off may happen. TO BE CLEAR I'm not short, I just want to catch BTC lower so I can go in at a safer point. I am long and I will never be short.
The only way to make money trading and keeping your profits is to enter at low "Hard to lose" point with big support beneath. For now, $8900 and $7300 are it. I do not lose much money trading and I make quite a bit in just a few trades a year. How? I am not enticed by some little up move, big drops to the 200MA in the Daily do catch my eye and I wait for such moves for weeks or months. It is easy to understand the pattern of how to make money in crypto because all you need to do is focus on BTC and its massive drops every few months or weeks. When it drops all you have to do is buy a lot of high performing alts and ride the wave until BTC hits resistance, at which point you sell and wait for the cycle to start all over again.
So where is the new battleground? it's in Two places. Let's look at the 12H and the 1D.
Let's start with the 12H (which is the main chart above)- we are now under a death cross (which is when the 50MA crosses down the 200MA) Historically if we close too many times under the 50MA during a death cross price will stay below the 50MA for a while until and after a period of consolidation gathers enough buyers and price will jump up enough to create a golden cross which will push price way up. In conclusion, if BTC does not close above the 50MA in this timeframe and above the red downtrend line it will then melt below the thick green trendline and end up in the mid 8K area.
On the 1D there's not much stopping BTC from melting down other than the green trendline, once it closes below that trendline price it will fall to the next support area. What is a good indicator that this may happen? It is now consistently trading below the 50MA (the yellow moving average line.)
I am already into some alts for a long swing trade to double my money, I am waiting to see if BTC melts down further to jump some more into other alts. NEO, LTC, BNB, ETH are looking very good at this moment.
THE TREND: Going down.
THE OUTLOOK: Unsafe to buy BTC.
Be safe and follow me to stay ahead of the curve.
