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Business CycleAll the credits to Ostium labs insights. Found here Intuition behind different indicators NFCI - NATIONAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX Note y axis is inverted. Rising NFCI here suggests loosening of financial conditions. Btc outperform in loose conditions. DRTSCILM - NET % OF BANKS TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS Note y axis is inverted. This tracks changes in the willingness of banks to lend, where tightening lending standards is indicative of caution, whereas looser lending standards suggest economic confidence. Here the graph is inverted - a rise shows improving willingness to lend and a fall shows tighter lending standards. HYG Real time proxy for demand of junk bonds which is a good proxy for risk appetite in the market. Demand for junk bonds is correlated with the rest of the risk curve, with Bitcoin tending to outperform during periods of strength for HYG, and vice-versa. BAMLH0A0HYM2 - HY ICE CREDIT SPREADS Note y axis is inverted. This measures the premium demanded by investors over government bonds. As one would imagine, wider credit spreads mean that more yield is being demanded to invest in junk bonds vs safe bonds, which itself is suggestive of risk in the economy. Narrow spreads, meanwhile, are indicative of confidence. The graph is inverted such that the peaks are the tightest spread. If credit spreads are narrow, risk appetite is high, which means assets further out the risk curve benefit. This is also suggestive of expansion vs contraction in the business cycle, where widening spreads would be suggestive of downturn and narrowing spreads of continued growth. USMNO/USNMNO - US MANUFACTURING ORDERS / NON-MANUFACTURING ORDERS Manufacturing New Orders growing faster than Non-Manufacturing New Orders is generally indicative of early recovery in a business cycle, whereas late cycle dynamics are more heavily weighted towards services, largely driven by consumer spending and therefore this ratio would begin to contract, as Non-Manufacturing New Orders dominate. USBC0I - US PMI A composite of the Manufacturing and Services sectors in the US economy. Above 50 = expansion and below 50 = contraction. T10YIE - 10-YEAR INFLATION BREAKEVENS A market-based measure of average expected inflation over the next 10 years. Bitcoin likes it very much when the average expected inflation rate has bottomed and is trending higher and it generally underperforms when 10-year inflation breakevens are declining. Bitcoin also tends to front-run peaks in 10-year inflation breakevens by about 6-9 months, which in turn tend to peak after Global M2 YoY growth has peaked and is turning lower. This measure also is useful for understanding what is likely to happen to financial conditions - tighter after peaks and looser after bottoms. The clearest correlation here is not to the downside but the upside: when breakevens have bottomed out and cycle higher, Bitcoin tends to do very well indeed. DFII10 - 10-YEAR REAL YIELD Note y axis is inverted What is interesting here is that whilst there is not a strong correlation as real yields rise, there is a clearer correlation as real yields fall. Falling real yields tend to be supportive of Bitcoin, whilst rising real yields have occurred whilst BTC has outperformed and underperformed historically. This one is not as key for mapping out the market cycle, but still worth keeping an eye on.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Oxfirefist
Total DEFI to $300B? I believe that in the near future, the total DeFi market cap could reach $300 billion. 📈 ✅ Key factors driving this growth: • The rise of LSDs (Liquid Staking Derivatives) and real yield in DeFi • Increasing institutional interest in DeFi solutions • Growing liquidity as L2s integrate deeper with major blockchains • Expansion of RWA (Real-World Assets) and tokenization The chart shows a strong setup: the local support level is holding, and the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside risk. ❓ What do you think? Will we see TOTAL DEFI at $300B by the end of 2025? #DeFi #Crypto #TotalValueLocked #CryptoMarket 🚀
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALDEFILong
by egorfedorov
TradeCityPro | RAY: Key Levels and Market Scenarios Unfolding👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! In this analysis, I’ll be reviewing the RAY coin, which belongs to the Raydium project—one of the leading DEXs on the Solana network, processing a significant volume of transactions on the chain. 📅 Weekly Timeframe On the weekly chart, we observe a strong uptrend that began at 0.162. The first leg of this rally pushed the price to 2.724, followed by a correction, and then another leg extending to 7.215. Currently, the price is consolidating near this resistance level. 🔍 The 7.215 level coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension, making this a crucial Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). If this level is broken, the next bullish leg could begin, with a minimum target of 15.803. The next major resistance aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci level at 21.995. If the uptrend continues beyond this point, further targets will be identified in future analyses. 🕯 On the downside, considering the declining volume and shrinking candlestick size, the probability of a correction is notable. The first support level to watch is 2.724. Additionally, the RSI is hovering near a critical support at 58.34—if this level breaks, the likelihood of a correction increases. 🔽 The next and most significant support level is 0.94. If the price falls below this point, it could signal a shift in the high-wave cycle, leading to a significant downtrend. 📅 Daily Timeframe On the daily chart, the latest bullish leg started at 1.399 and extended to 6.363. The price is currently ranging between this resistance and the 4.352 support level, which also aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, making it a key PRZ in this timeframe. ✨ Yesterday’s candlestick showed a sharp downward move accompanied by panic selling, followed by a recovery back toward the 6.363 resistance. 🔼 For a long position, the first breakout trigger would be 6.363, which I consider the primary trigger. The next breakout level is 8.090, but this was formed due to a fake move. If you miss the breakout above 6.363, you could consider entering upon the breakout of 8.090. 📉 However, yesterday’s volatility liquidated many long positions, causing significant fear among buyers. As a result, there are currently fewer buy orders in the support zones, which could allow the price to continue its downward move. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️ If the RSI breaks below 38.94, the probability of a corrective move increases. In such a scenario, the price could retrace to key Fibonacci levels such as 0.382, 0.5, and 0.618. A deeper correction could lead to the 2.724 support level, and if this level breaks, the market trend could turn bearish for an extended period.
Long
by tradecitypro
7
Ethereum — 2025. The Lord Giveth and Taketh Away (Caution! 18+)Donald Trump's recent policies and statements have generated significant negative sentiment towards Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market. As he resumes the presidency, his administration's approach to cryptocurrencies is expected to be more regulatory and cautious, which could impact Ethereum investors. Historical Context of Trump's Views on Cryptocurrency Trump has a mixed history with cryptocurrencies, as we mentioned in earlier published ideas. Initially, he labeled them a "scam", "based on thin air" as well as "threat to the U.S. dollar" and expressed skepticism about their value, stating that they are not real money and are highly volatile. However, in recent months, he has shifted his stance somewhat, reportedly owning between $1 million and $5 million in Ethereum as of August 2024. Despite this personal investment, his public comments continue to reflect a critical view of the crypto market. Impact of Recent Tariffs on Ethereum The most immediate cause of concern for Ethereum investors has been Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This decision triggered a significant sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum experiencing a drastic price drop of over 26% in just one day. The overall cryptocurrency market lost nearly half a trillion dollars in value following these announcements, highlighting the interconnectedness of global trade policies and digital asset valuations. The tariffs have led to increased uncertainty among investors, prompting many to liquidate their positions in riskier assets like Ethereum. This reaction is indicative of a broader trend where geopolitical tensions and economic policies directly influence cryptocurrency prices. Analysts noted that such trade policies could lead to inflationary pressures and a stronger dollar, making cryptocurrencies less attractive to international buyers. Future Outlook for Ethereum Under Trump's Administration Looking ahead, Trump's administration is likely to focus on stricter regulations for cryptocurrencies. This could manifest in enhanced oversight that may slow down the adoption of Ethereum by businesses and individuals. However, there is also potential for increased legitimacy if clear regulations are established. Moreover, Trump's interest in Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) might further complicate the landscape for Ethereum. As the U.S. explores its digital dollar initiative, Ethereum's decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem could face stiff competition from state-backed digital currencies. Technical challenge The main technical graph for Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD indicates on Bearish trend in development, since mid-December 2024, with acceleration occurred a day before Mr. Trump entered the White House. Key support considered as 100-week SMA (near $2550 in this time) and $2200 flat multi bottom, that helps so far; otherwise (in case of breakthrough) we believe it could lead the Ethereum price much lower, as it described on the chart. Conclusion In summary, while Trump’s personal investment in Ethereum marks a notable shift from his previous criticisms, his administration's policies—especially regarding tariffs—have created a challenging environment for Ethereum investors. The combination of regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic factors will likely continue to influence Ethereum's market performance in the near future.
by PandorraResearch
Cookie / USDT: On the verge of a Breakout above trendlineCOOKIE/USDT: On the Verge of a Breakout Above Trendline Resistance COOKIE/USDT is setting up for a major move 📈 as it nears a key trendline resistance zone 📊. After a period of tight consolidation, the conditions are aligning for a potential breakout 💥. If confirmed, we could see a strong bullish rally unfold 🚀. Stay alert and watch for confirmation before making a move. Key Insights: 1️⃣ Trendline Resistance: COOKIE/USDT is testing a significant trendline that has historically acted as a barrier. A successful breakout could trigger a sustained bullish trend. 2️⃣ Volume Surge: Watch for a spike in trading volume during the breakout to confirm strong buyer momentum 🔥. 3️⃣ Bullish Signals: Indicators like RSI and MACD are showing bullish momentum ⚡, increasing the likelihood of an upward breakout. Steps to Confirm the Breakout: ✅ Look for a clear 4H or daily candle closing above the trendline. ✅ A notable volume surge during the breakout will indicate strong buying pressure. ✅ A successful retest of the broken resistance as a new support zone adds credibility to the move. ⚠️ Be cautious of fake breakouts—wicks above the trendline without follow-through can indicate rejection. Risk Management Strategies: 🔒 Use stop-loss orders to protect your position. 🎯 Adjust your position sizing to fit your risk tolerance and strategy. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always DYOR before making investment decisions 🔍.
Long
by Crypto-By-Ghazi
Crypto Hedge against Trumpism chaos, destruction and tariffsTrump is going to wreck havoc on the US economy which is why many are hedging against USD with crypto. Inflation, shortages and recession are coming in a few years. For awhile, Biden policy will prop up USD but once Trump policy kicks in and effects the government, expect food shortages from deportations, recession from tariffs and draconian policy and more wars with Putin unchecked. Chaos is coming in about year 2 into Trump presidency. Until then I expect positive Biden policies to continue to strengthen US dollar while smart hedgers long crypto the hedge against the chaos that is coming. When not if.
EIGHTCAP:ETHUSDLong
by ghosttrees
1
Bitcoin analysis: where is the important support?hello friends Considering the growth we had, it is natural for the price to take a break. Now that a formed range has seen the bottom of its range and returned according to the specified support area, it is very, very important that this area is not broken, and if it is, it will give us attractive buying points on altcoins, so there is no need to worry. .. And by maintaining the support, we will witness the beginning of the next upward movement. *Trade safely with us*
Long
by TheHunters_Company
BTC MARKET ANALYSIS (4H(TF)) | Bitcoin Update BTC Analysis (4-Hour Timeframe) As you can see on the chart, I’ve marked three key zones for BTC: Strong Resistance – The current market structure’s upper boundary. Central Zone – A critical area acting as a pivot point. Strong Support – The lower boundary of the current structure. Since breaking out of the 70-80 zone, BTC has established a new structure, which is clearly visible on the chart. Over the past few days, BTC has been circulating within this zone. Today, it tested the support level and showed a healthy reversal, which is a positive sign. This zone has historically acted as a strong support area, and the market has repeatedly reversed from here, as seen in the price action between 91,260 and 89,260. For now, BTC is respecting this support level and following the current structure. A breakdown below this zone could lead to a bearish move, but as of now, the support is holding strong. Central Zone: The Key Pivot Area The Central Zone is a crucial part of the current structure, acting as both support and resistance (SR/Rs interchange). It provides valuable insights into BTC’s price action, indicating when the price is likely to test resistance or support. Currently, BTC has faced minor rejection from the Central Zone. However, given the strong bounce from the support level, there’s a possibility that BTC could break through the Central Zone. If this happens, the price may move toward the resistance level again. Supply and Demand Dynamics From a supply and demand perspective, BTC is currently showing strong demand near the support level. This demand could push the price toward the resistance level. However, for this upward move to sustain, BTC needs to break the downtrend choch (swing high) between resistance and support. This break is likely to occur if the Central Zone is breached. If the Central Zone breaks, the demand could fully play out, and BTC may retest the resistance level. Needed Volume: A Critical Factor At the bottom of the chart, I’ve marked the “needed volume” level. This is an important area that cannot be ignored. For the needed volume to fill, the market might retrace lower. If the Central Zone breaks, the needed volume will likely fill after testing the resistance. However, if the Central Zone holds and rejects the price, BTC could retrace to fill the needed volume level. In this scenario, the market might also break the current structure, targeting the 89,000–91,000 zone. Summary : Two Possible Scenarios Bullish Scenario: The Central Zone breaks, and BTC moves toward the resistance level. Bearish Scenario: The Central Zone rejects the price, and BTC retraces to fill the needed volume level. These are the two primary scenarios to watch for. The market is currently straightforward, and no additional complexities are at play. Note: My goal is to simplify the chart and help you understand the price action clearly. I avoid overloading the chart with unnecessary indicators or creating confusion. My analysis focuses on keeping the chart clean and straightforward. Thank you!
by The_Chartist30