Cryptomarket
AAVE thesis by Titan_KarmaMarket Overview
The current market sentiment suggests a moderate bullish outlook, with a recommendation to HOLD or BUY the existing position. The asset is trading at $305.57, slightly below the open position price of $305.60, indicating a marginal decline but within a consolidation range.
Key Technical Indicators
Stop-loss: Positioned at $300.00, providing a safety net against potential downward volatility.
Take-profit: Targeted at $310.00, reflecting a reasonable resistance level to maximize gains.
Exit Point: Advised at $305.81, offering an opportunity for partial profit-taking just above the current price.
Confidence Level
The confidence level for this strategy is 75%, signaling cautious optimism. While the risk-reward profile is favorable, traders should remain vigilant for shifts in price momentum.
Correlation with BTC
The asset shows a neutral correlation with Bitcoin at 0.05, implying minimal influence from BTC's price movements. This provides room for the asset to move independently based on its own market dynamics.
Position Analysis
Current Open Position: One long position opened at $305.60, showing negligible unrealized loss.
Short Positions: None active, suggesting a lack of bearish sentiment.
Risk Management Strategy
Tight stop-loss ensures downside protection at $300.00, while the take-profit level at $310.00 secures a favorable upside.
Traders should monitor the $305.81 exit point for partial profit-taking and re-evaluate market conditions if the asset approaches this level.
Recommendation
Continue to HOLD the current long position, with a potential BUY opportunity if prices drop near the stop-loss level without breaching it. Monitor market trends closely and adjust risk management parameters as necessary to account for any changes in sentiment or volatility.
TRBUSDT - is it dead cat bounce ? What's next??#TRBUSDT.. after a perfect drop now market is near to his resistance area.
Question is that is it dead cat bounce or low are placed?
Well guys we have 57.40-50 that is our resistance area now and if market hold it in that case we can see again a drop towards next supporting area.
But keep in mind that we will go for cut n reverse above 57.40 on confirmation.
Good luck
Trade wisely
BTC Bear Flag ContinuationBTC has broken out of its upwards channel and is looking to make further downsides with a bear flag in play now it seems COINBASE:BTCUSD
BTCUSDT - At Support? What's next??#BTCUSDT.. in today BTC market dropped around 4 percent but still it is buying trend because until market didnot break 94200 there is no sign of short.
94200 is our key level now and don't short until hold it.
Only short below 94200
Good luck
Trade wisely
Bitcoin's road to 150,000 Bitcoin Halving 2024: A New Era
The fourth Bitcoin halving, expected on April 15, 2024, will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, increasing scarcity and reinforcing its deflationary nature. Historically, halving cycles drive three phases: a bullish uptrend in the first 70,000 blocks, a bearish retracement in the next 70,000, and sideways consolidation before the next halving. This cycle points to a potential peak of $150,000, supported by historical trends, logarithmic regression, and metrics like the MVRV ratio.
Current Market Position
Bitcoin has emerged from the sideways phase of the third halving era (2020–2024) and is poised for a bullish run. The MVRV ratio, currently at 2.24, signals fair value, with room for growth. Historical patterns show Bitcoin dominance surges above 70% during bullish phases, supporting price appreciation.
Halving Cycles and Projections
Bitcoin's logarithmic regression model aligns with these price phases:
Bullish Phase (0–70,000 blocks): Exponential growth; projected high of $150,000.
Bearish Phase (70,000–140,000 blocks): Retracement of 80%, with lows around $55,000.
Sideways Phase (140,000–210,000 blocks): Consolidation before the next cycle.
MVRV Ratio Insights
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) serves as a key valuation tool:
MVRV > 3.7: Overbought, market tops.
MVRV < 1: Undervalued, market bottoms. The current reading of 2.24 reflects equilibrium, signaling potential upside.
Timeline Overview
April 2024 (Halving): Demand rises, supply tightens, sparking bullish momentum.
2025–2026: Peak at $150,000 as the bullish phase matures.
Post-Bullish Phase: Retracement to $55,000, consistent with historical patterns.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s cyclical dynamics, driven by halving mechanisms, position it uniquely in financial markets. Historical data and on-chain metrics suggest a bullish trajectory to $150,000, with an 80% drawdown to $55,000 post-peak. While short-term volatility remains, Bitcoin’s long-term appeal as a store of value persists.
Disclaimer: This analysis is educational and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile, and past performance does not predict future results.
Sources
Coin Metrics
CryptoQuant
TradingView Data Analysis
Market Shifts To Risk-Off: Correction For Bitcoin To 85-90k.We are seeing significant flows since the Fed delivered a hawkish cut yesterday, with stocks turning sharply to the downside while the US dollar continues its recovery above 108. Another reason for this end-of-year shift could also be profit-taking, given the substantial gains in risk assets throughout the year, so traders see this as reason to exit, since FED expect less cuts next year.
This shift into the US dollar and out of the stock market is also impacting cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has turned perfectly downward from 108, which we tracked as an important resistance level in wave five of an extended wave three. Now that price turned down and broken the channel support line, it looks like an A-B-C correction is underway, likely targeting even lower levels.
The key support zone for the current corrective fourth wave should be around the 84000–90000 area. This zone could provide the foundation for a potential new bullish resumption, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Broke through that zone will put bulls in some real trouble.
Grega
The Bitcoin Peak: When Will the Cycle End?Been a while since I published a TA. I’ve been digging deep trying to decipher when the cycle top will come in for Bitcoin. Some say it’s an impossible feat. Well, let’s give it a go.
There are two major dates and one minor date for a possible cycle top:
May 2025
**Volume Flow**: 1157 Days
**From June Bottom**: 1064 days
**ETH clear bottom**: June 2022
**Bar Pattern Fractal**: From 2015 bottom
**221k Price Target**: Target crosses with the model in May.
September 2025
**From November Bottom**: 1064 days
**Major Macro Time Fibonacci**
**Chainlink Fractal**
**Chainlink Time Fib**
March 2025
**Small Time Fibonacci**
**Bull Flag End**
**Average % move and time since 2019**
As you can see, there is a lot of evidence to unpack here, so it’s going to be a long one. Let’s start with the first date: May 2025.
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May 2025
Volume Flow on Heikin Candles on the Monthly shows that from the Bearish cross to the cycle top is 1126 days, which ends up being May.
Every cycle, Bitcoin has always put in a double bottom to mark its cycle low. As you can see, in 2022 we had two major crashes, and even though it’s not 100% clear here, we got a double bottom.
The amazing thing about the first bottom in June 2022 is that it mirrored the first bottom of the cycle low of 2015. That fractal was a mirror, showing the importance of this first low in Bitcoin in June 2022.
If we overlay the 2015 fractal, we get the top coming in May.
For anyone who doesn’t know, the last two cycles, Bitcoin has taken 1064 days from Cycle Low to Cycle Top. 1064 days from the June 2022 low is May.
ETH has a much clearer bottom than Bitcoin this cycle. It also took 1064 days, which puts it in May.
So you can see, there is a lot of evidence pointing towards a May 2025 Cycle Top for Bitcoin.
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September/October 2025
1064 days from the second bottom in November 2022 would be October 2025.
For years, I have been using this Major Macro Time Fibonacci sequence that shows me important moments in Bitcoin’s cycles. The last pointed to a move down to 48k in August 2023, which is hard to see on the 2Week chart.
As you can see, it comes close to pinpointing moves, so the next date is the end of September 2025, which lines up with the 1064 days from November 2022.
I have been following this Chainlink fractal for more than a year. We traded LINK using this fractal back in October 2023. You can check my TAs from that period. The fractal is still valid and tops in September 2025.
Chainlink Fibonacci Time Sequence has been hitting home runs time and time again, from pinpointing the top all the way down to the bottom. The next date is late August 2025, very close to September 2025.
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March 2025
This date has far less weight for a cycle top but could be part of a major local top and correction.
A small Time Fibonacci sequence taken from this level shows that March 31st is the next date, and the one after that is late August 2025, the same as the Chainlink fractal.
240% over 162 days is the average that Bitcoin moves up since 2019. If we just overlay the average, we get 127k by mid-February 2025.
A mirror move from October 2023 to March 2024 puts us in March 2025.
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Elliott Wave Section
I’m not an expert in this field but will throw in some takes.
Could we possibly be in Wave 4 out of 5?
Or could we be finishing Wave 3 right now and in for the first large correction of this bull market?
The fact is, the last time we hit this band on this model was January 2021. After that, there was a 31% correction lasting 31 days.
Sometimes 5 waves are very clear. Take GOLD, for example: there is a clear 5-wave pattern at max Fibonacci extension. This is a massive macro sell signal, in my opinion. Crazy how GOLD hit this level on Wave 5 as Bitcoin breaks 100k.
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### **Price Targets
If we take the first cycle and overlay to 2015 cycle, it gave us the cycle top in 2021.
If we do the same for this cycle and overlay the 2015 cycle, we get a price target of 221k, which puts it at the top of my model in May 2025. Just discovered this—that’s one more point for May 2025.
As you can see, in the last two cycles it worked. Will it work this time? Who knows.
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Pi Cycle Indicator
If we just run a rough projection on when the next cross will be, it crosses in April 2025, very close to May. Keep in mind this is a very rough idea of when it could cross.
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Conclusion
We have 5 points in favor of May 2025, 4 points in favor of September 2025, and 2 points for March 2025. As always, the path is never clear for Bitcoin. Until we get much further down the road, I won’t conclusively know which date it will be.
This model I have been using has been so accurate thus far. We are so high up the last bands that we are most likely going to get some sort of long consolidation period with a correction soon, which would give the altcoin market a run.
TOTAL and PROFITS short story
Today is another red day for crypto. This shows how easy it is for us to get carried away with the good feelings of green days and forget about days like these. Taking profits makes so much sense now as a trader. But that’s not all—we need to keep those profits for future entries, and good entries, not the kind driven by FOMO, greed, or revenge.
A lot of work needs to be done on our personalities just to stay in this game long enough to make it. This self-improvement can be tricky and tiring, which is why time in the game is so important. And time in the game is made possible by profit-taking. Taking profits gives us the breathing room to work on ourselves with the help of the markets.
It’s not easy, my fellow traders, but let’s hope for better, greener days ahead.
A little bit of TA on TOTAL (Daily Time Frame): the system is switching short because the PSAR is red and above the price. The only thing we can do now is wait for the price to stabilize—no price targets, just wait and see what happens.
Take care, my fellow traders. See you on the other side of the top.
BTCUSDT : 110000$ or 78000$we are in critical point if we break the internal we may see a daily pullback for BTCUSDT pair and the second scenario is to continue the bullish move but the daily choch can be a sign for a huge pullback BINANCE:BTCUSDT
POLKADOT- BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHERIn the midst of chaos, I've decided to increase my position in Polkadot, as I've been holding since $5.82. The structure continues to show bullish signals, and we’re still in a bull market. Moreover, the Christmas and New Year rally hasn’t even started yet.
For traders feeling anxious right now, it's better to step away from the screen and avoid making impulsive decisions. For those focused on knowledge and strategy, there’s no better moment to consider opening a long position—fully aware of the possibility that your stop-loss might be hit.
Trade Management:
Entry: $7 or market price
Stop-loss: $6.31 (keeping the previous position intact)
Remember to control your emotions and avoid overtrading. Maintaining liquidity is crucial—don’t put all your capital at risk. Protect your psychology and trust your skills. Don’t let the market shake your confidence in what you know works.
I’m sticking to my plan, as mentioned in my previous idea. Nothing changes if you follow your plan.
May God bless you all.
Jay
Trading opportunity for ENAUSDTBased on technical factors there is a Sell position in :
📊 ENAUSDT
🔴 Sell Now
🪫Stop loss 1.31
🔋Target 1 0.89
🔋Target 2 0.75
🔋Target 3 0.62
💸RISK : 1%
We hope it is profitable for you ❤️
Please support our activity with your likes👍 and comments📝
XRP Long OpportunityMarket Context:
XRP has shown strong performance and is revisiting the 2021 resistance highs, which have now flipped into support. This creates an ideal zone for a long entry with solid risk-to-reward potential.
Trade Details:
Entry Zone: Around $1.80
Take Profit Targets:
$2.42
$2.90
Stop Loss: Close below $1.60
This setup aligns with XRP’s bullish structure, providing an opportunity to capitalize on its momentum while managing downside risk effectively. 📈
Sentiment Cycle Indicator Performance (PAID)Performance Analysis of the Sentiment Cycle Indicator
1. Trend Identification:
• The indicator has effectively highlighted bullish and bearish sentiment zones, as shown by the green (bullish) and red (bearish) background shading. This visual clarity makes it easy for traders to identify the prevailing market sentiment at a glance.
2. Buy and Sell Signals:
• The Buy signals are well-timed, capturing upward price movements, especially during key reversal zones.
• The Sell signals occur consistently in areas where bearish momentum starts to dominate, allowing traders to exit or short positions effectively.
3. Key Trades Observed:
• Buy Example: Around the recent low near $100,000, the indicator generated a buy signal right before a significant upward move, aligning well with the trend shift.
• Sell Example: Near $105,000, the indicator provided a sell signal ahead of a downward move, protecting traders from holding during the drop.
4. Market Choppiness Handling:
• Even during sideways or choppy markets, the indicator avoids excessive false signals due to its clear sentiment zone shading, helping traders stay on the right side of the market.
Why This Indicator Stands Out
1. Simplifies Complex Market Trends:
• By combining sentiment analysis with buy/sell signals, the indicator provides traders with a comprehensive toolkit for decision-making.
2. Dynamic Market Adaptation:
• The indicator adapts to real-time price movements, ensuring timely and accurate signals without lagging.
3. Perfect for Scalping and Swing Trading:
• Traders can use the sentiment zones for scalping in smaller timeframes and for swing trading over longer horizons.
DOTUSDT.Phello friends
Due to the severe fall we had. Let the price go down to the specified support range and see an upward movement from there.
This analysis is checked from a technical point of view.
Be successful and profitable.
Navigating the Current Market Turbulence: A Crypto and Stock MarBitcoin is currently trading at approximately $102,200, reflecting a decrease of 2.36% over the last week. Despite a brief rally reaching highs of $108,367.38, the digital currency has faced selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 65, indicating that BTC might still be overbought, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests bearish momentum could persist.
Investors should be cautious as the market shows signs of volatility. For cryptocurrencies, monitoring RSI and MACD indicators can provide insights into potential buying opportunities.
Daily Analysis of Ethereum – Issue 233The analyst believes that the price of { ETHUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin – Issue 233The analyst believes that the price of { BTCUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
EIGEN TREND DIRECTIOONAL CORRCTION CHANNEL as we can see in the chart eigen is in a trend directional BINANCE:EIGENUSDT is in a uprising channel if the current btc uptrend we can expect eigen to be the one of stronger assets i think everything is obvious enough in the chart i"ll be really thankful if you share your idea about this analysis and what you think about the current trend of the market
BTC Dominance Chart - BITCOIN DOMINANCEBTC Dominance is the most important chart to follow to understand whether the crypto market is in an altcoin or Bitcoin season.
"We had a great projection regarding the Bitcoin Dominance bearish shift around the 60% level, and it played out perfectly. I’ve linked that projection to this post for reference.
Currently, Bitcoin Dominance is testing the weekly supply zone as a bearish retest. This aligns with the premium side of the Fibonacci, adding to my conviction that we’re likely to see a bearish reversal from here, forming a lower high. This lower high could potentially trigger another leg down in dominance, setting the stage for a strong altcoin season.
I expect this shift to happen very soon.
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 102,858.96
1st Support: 94,387.12
1st Resistance: 108,432.84
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Xrp - Another +100% Pump Is Starting!Xrp ( CRYPTO:XRPUSD ) is sill just getting started:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Xrp is so far perfectly following the repetition of cycles after we saw a beautiful breakout candle of November with an insane move of +280%. Looking at previous behaviour, it is now actually very likely that Xrp breaks the previous all time high and continues its strong rally.
Levels to watch: $3.0, $5.0
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
