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BTC, When should we expect reversal? FA: The majority of crypto market participants are currently in a depressed mood regarding the medium-term future of the crypto market as a whole. Such behavior of the crowd says first of all that weak hands are not ready to buy now, and the sawtooth movement, which started since March and has lasted for more than 6 months, puts even experienced participants in a stupor, forcing them to close speculative positions, dump risky assets and expect a further decline comparable to the collapse in the spring of 2020. However, a deeper look reveals several significant trends: A drop in the influx of new bitcoins to exchanges. Since the beginning of the year, the number of new coins entering exchanges has been declining. This indicates that professional investors prefer to keep their assets in their wallets, which means they are not preparing to sell. This factor is traditionally considered to be a bullish sign, as a decrease in supply on exchanges may contribute to price growth in case of renewed buying activity. Increased outflow of bitcoins from exchanges. This sign is also positive and confirms the narrative of asset accumulation by smart capital. It can be seen especially well at the moment of price drawdown: during and after aggressive shakeouts, a surge in coin outflows is clearly visible. Despite the globally passive sentiment, the fundamentals of exchange inflow/outflow suggest that strong hands continue to accumulate while the crowd is perplexed by what is happening. Reduced supply on the exchanges and increased demand from large holdings are creating all the conditions for future price gains, our idea is that the market has been in a reaccumulative phase for the past six months. From a technical analysis standpoint , I anticipate a continued downside for BTC. Two potential scenarios may unfold: 1 - Retest of the 4-hour Order Block (OB): BTC could test the 52,000-54,000 range, followed by a gradual reversal, suggesting a more measured recovery. 2 - Retest of the Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG): Alternatively, BTC may drop to the 47,300-44,000 zone, which could trigger a sharp "V-shaped" reversal with aggressive momentum driving the price higher, potentially towards new all-time highs (ATH). In either case, monitoring key support and resistance levels within these zones will be critical.
Short
by Almenio
9/11 CPI Surprises, but What’s Next for the Market?Overview: The latest CPI data is out, showing a slightly better-than-expected 2.6%, beating estimates by just 0.1%. It may not seem like much, but in a market where key metrics are constantly revised, even small improvements matter. It has been exactly a year since July 26, 2023, when the Federal Reserve finished raising rates to the current 5.25% to 5.50% range. Yet, over the past 12 months, prices have still risen by 2.5%, even with those high interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve favors another metric—Core CPI. This measure excludes volatile food and energy costs that can fluctuate in the short term. And what about Core CPI? Month-over-month, it increased by 0.3%, which was 0.1% higher than expected. Year-over-year, it sits at 3.5%, which is still well above the Fed’s target. So, wave goodbye to any hopes of a 25 basis point rate cut anytime soon. By the time the Fed substantially cuts rates, crypto could very well experience not just one, but two bull cycles. As we mentioned yesterday, lower CPI is good for the markets and has historically brought green candles. Initially, the VANTAGE:SP500 opened with a big red candle, trading below Monday and Tuesday's opening prices. But once the Fed's report was released, it began to rally. On the daily timeframe, the S&P 500 remains below the Bollinger Band's moving average (BB MA). Cryptocurrencies reacted positively as well, with Bitcoin bouncing off the weekly support level of $55.9K and now pushing toward the upper boundary of its trading range at $58.4K. Interestingly, ETF flows were net negative. A closer look reveals that Fidelity was buying both BTC and ETH, while ARK, Grayscale, and VanEck were selling. It’s important to remember that not all ETFs are created equal. Fidelity might represent everyday retail investors, while funds like Grayscale and Blackrock tend to cater to more sophisticated entities. W: Bitcoin is actively forming the top wick of this week's candle, currently touching the upper boundary of $58.4K but still far from the BB MA. D: Bitcoin is testing both weekly resistance levels and the BB MA. 4h: This is the third attempt to break $58.4K. Failure to break and remaining within the range would signal a bearish turn. 1h: No divergences detected. Alts Relative to BTC: No divergences across the board, except for BINANCE:SUIUSDT , which saw a massive 8.28% pump, breaking through the $1 resistance level. This marks its third peak in the last month, though the most recent valley was lower than the previous one. Bull Case: The Fed continues to deliver positive data, fueling a five-day pump. Selling pressure has eased, as most who could sell have already done so. Bear Case: This could be a temporary rally before the real turmoil begins. Fear and Greed Index: 37, indicating a return to Fear territory. Prediction: Bitcoin is likely to reject at the weekly resistance level and bounce downward.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
NOTUSD / UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE - 4HNOTUSDT / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Downward Condition: The fact that the price is trading below the 0.008 level indicates a bearish sentiment in the market. When prices remain below this level, it suggests that sellers are in control, applying downward pressure on the , If the price continues to decline, it will likely test the 0.007 level as the next support. If that level is broken, the next target would be 0.006, reinforcing the bearish outlook. These support levels are key indicators of how low the price might drop. Upward Condition: If the price manages to break above 0.008 with a strong close, it would signal a shift in market momentum. A 4-hour close above this level indicates that buyers are gaining strength, potentially reversing the downward , Once 0.008 is broken, the next resistance would be at 0.009. This level needs to be breached to confirm a sustained upward move , For a full reversal of the downward trend and confirmation of an uptrend, the price would need to break above 0.009, with the next target being 0.010. This would signify buyer dominance and a stronger upward momentum. Current Market Analysis: The market is currently under pressure, with sellers driving prices below 0.008. However, should buyers step in and push the price back above 0.008, the market could shift upward, targeting 0.009. Until the 0.009 level is broken, the market remains in a cautious state, and sellers may still hold influence. TURNING LEVEL : 0.008
Short
by ArinaKarayi
XRPUSDT / TRADING INTO ASCENDING CHANNEL - 4H XRPUSDT / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Currently Market Analysis: The asset is currently trading below the critical turning level of 0.54, indicating that it is under downward pressure. This suggests that bearish sentiment is dominating the market, with sellers outweighing buyers. The price is attempting to retest the turning level of 0.54 before potentially continuing its decline. Downward Conditions: As long as the price remains below the 0.54 level, it is likely to experience further declines, If the price fails to break through this resistance level, it may drop toward the next support level at 0.51. A break and stabilization below 0.51 would signal further bearish momentum, potentially pushing the price down to 0.48 , Bearish volume and weak buying interest below the 0.54 turning level would contribute to the likelihood of continued declines. Upward Conditions: For a potential reversal and upward movement, the price must decisively break through the 0.54 turning level, A break above 0.54 could shift market sentiment to bullish, allowing the price to rise toward 0.57, which serves as the next key resistance level , If momentum continues, the price could extend its gains toward 0.59. Positive market catalysts, strong buying volume, or bullish indicators could support this upward trajectory. Turning Level : 0.54
Short
by ArinaKarayi
1
LDOUSDT: READY TO GO LONG at SUPPORTHello, Welcome to the quick update of LDOUSDT. From the last few months we can see LDOUSDT in a downtrend and has dumped more than 50%. Currently, it is trading in the range of .9480 to .9981. We can see it breaking the channel and is currently trying to retest. The immediate support levels to watch for are .91 to .94. We can take a small position at around 0.9621 and DCA until .9081 with a STOPLOSS of 0.8711. The targets to watch for are: 1.0444 1.0711 1.1324 1.1767 1.3511 and 1.5573 (This is for the long run) Until then, stay tuned and trade with caution, ensuring strict STOPLOSSES!! This is not financial advice, please do your research before investing, as we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits. Please like, share, and comment on this idea if you liked it. ScramblerG is always there to help and trade with caution but DYOR.
Long
by ScramblerG
2
SUPER Long Position (Support Flip Opportunity)Market Context: SUPER has broken through resistance, now acting as support. As long as the price stays above this level, it presents a bullish scenario. Trade Setup: Entry: Ladder into a long spot trade once the price retraces into the $0.70 - $0.785 area of support. Take Profit: First target: $1.0320 - $1.150 Second target: $1.40 - $1.50 Stop Loss: Just below $0.60 📊 This setup focuses on capitalizing on the bullish momentum with solid risk management. #SUPER #CryptoTrading #SupportFlip
Long
by Richtv_official
1
BTCUSDT: IDEA THAT MIGHT RESONATE SOONHello All, Welcome to the quick update of BTCUSDT . We have seen BTC touch the levels of $ 52500 and retrace a bit until $ 58000 but couldn't hold it. We can see it dumping and is currently trading around $56100. The next levels to watch out for are $54700 and $53800 . If this holds, we can see BTC pump again and might make a new high in a few months. Support levels: $54700. $53900, $49600 in the long run. Resistance levels: $58027, $61100, $64000, and $72000 in the long run. Let's wait and see how this pans out. Until then, stay tuned and trade with caution, ensuring strict STOPLOSSES !! This is not financial advice, please do your research before investing, as we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits. Please like, share, and comment on this idea if you liked it. ScramblerG is always there to help and trade with caution but DYOR.
Long
by ScramblerG
FTM Long Position (Support Test Opportunity)Market Context: FTM has retraced to test the upper range of support, providing an opportunity for a long spot trade. Trade Setup: Entry: Ladder into a long spot trade at around $0.45 on the retrace. Take Profit: First target: $0.54 - $0.63 Second target: $0.75 - $0.85 Stop Loss: Just below $0.38 📊 This setup leverages the support retest for potential gains with clear profit targets and risk management in place. #FTM #CryptoTrading #SupportTrade
Long
by Richtv_official
MultiversX (EGLD) Falling Wedge AlertMultiversX is showing a classic falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, a bullish reversal setup that suggests a potential breakout to the upside. Over the next year, swing targets point towards the previous all-time high (ATH) range of $500-$600, offering a long-term bullish opportunity for traders. Key Technical Highlights: Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish) Current Price: ~$25-$30 Breakout Target: $80-$120 (Initial swing target based on wedge height) Long-Term Target: $500-$600 (Previous ATH from 2021) Time Frame: 12 months (swing trade target) Why this setup looks strong: Converging Price Action: Price action is tightening, with lower highs and lower lows inside the wedge, suggesting that a breakout is likely imminent. Volume Decline: A typical feature of falling wedges is decreasing volume, indicating consolidation before a potential breakout. RSI Divergence: RSI shows bullish divergence, adding strength to the argument that sellers are losing momentum. Strategy: Entry: Consider entering on a confirmed breakout above $35-$40 with strong volume. Stop Loss: Set below $20 for risk management in case of a failed breakout. Targets: Short-term: $80-$120 (based on wedge height) Long-term: $500-$600 (previous ATH in late 2021) This setup presents a promising risk/reward ratio for long-term investors looking to swing trade MultiversX. Keep an eye on key breakout levels and confirmation signals. This is not financial advice. Always perform your own research and trade responsibly.
CRYPTO:EGLDUSDLong
by STP_MrNodeItAll
9/10. Crypto Recovery or Short Squeeze? Key Data as CPI Looms.Overview: Over the last two trading days, the VANTAGE:SP500 and NASDAQ:QQQ posted green candles, pulling us back from the bearish abyss we ended up in last week. However, neither has yet surpassed Friday’s opening price. Many speculate that the U.S. election outcomes could positively affect crypto prices, though we believe that any correlation is weak beyond short-term timeframes. Regardless, today, Harris did a decent job debating Trump. About 15 minutes into the debate, the market reacted by dropping 1.72%. Monday and Tuesday were relatively uneventful in terms of Fed reports, but tomorrow, we’ll get the CPI and core CPI data. Last month’s inflation rate was 2.9%, and estimates are at 2.6%. If it comes in higher than 2.6%, the market could react negatively. If it meets or falls below expectations, we could see range trading for the next four months until liquidity flows back into the asset markets. ETF buying has also picked up, breaking a streak of selling. W: So far, we’re painting a green candle, hovering around the $55.9k weekly level. Tomorrow’s Fed report will likely determine whether we close the week above or below this critical level. D: In our last report, we noticed a bullish MACD divergence that has now played out. Weekend to Tuesday price action has pushed BTC back into the previous trading range of $55.9k to $58.4k. The lower bound is about to be tested as support. On Monday and Tuesday, the price nearly reached the BB MA and the upper bound of $58.4k. Monday’s green candle resembles a short squeeze, although it’s debatable how many participants are borrowing crypto from brokerages versus shorting regular or perpetual futures, the latter of which doesn’t result in a price spike if the trade goes against the shorts. Bearish to neutral if the weekly level holds. 4h: Currently trading above the BB MA, with the weekly level perfectly aligning with it. 1h: At the lower bound of the BB, Monday’s high and Tuesday’s high are drawing a MACD bearish divergence. Let’s see if this divergence played out during the presidential debate’s red candle or if more is to come tomorrow. Alts relative to BTC: No significant divergences noted besides 1 project. Read below in opportunities. Bull Case: Once again, BTC has pushed up, potentially driven by awakened bulls or a short squeeze, returning to its old trading range. September 6th marked the cycle bottom without breaking below the previous August 5th low of $49k. Global liquidity has been climbing for 72 consecutive days. With this and some positive macroeconomic news, BTC could hold between the $52.2k and $55.9k levels, possibly sparking a rally to $80k. Bear Case: Monday’s spike may not reflect genuine interest in crypto but rather a short squeeze, soon to be crushed by a contracting economy due to high interest rates. Fear and Greed Index: 45.01, back to neutral. Prediction: Range trading unless tomorrow’s Fed report throws a wrench into the works. Opportunities (W, 4h divergences of major alts): One coin that showed weaker price action during the last 4 bullish days is BINANCE:ARUSDT . While the market rallied, AR continued to sell off, signaling that insiders and whales may be keeping selling pressure high. AR still faces a potential 53% decline before it reaches the BTC ETF price level recorded on January 11th.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Sep.3-Sep.9(ETH)Weekly market recapLast Friday, employment data was released, showing that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%. Although non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased, they still fell short of expectations. BTC initially rose upon the release of the data but quickly reversed course and turned negative. The U.S. stock market also opened lower, signaling that as the labor market weakens, funds in risk assets are starting to avoid risk. Over the past week, BTC ETF daily fund flows were mostly net outflows, while ETH ETFs saw little significant movement. This reflects the current tight financial environment and increasing risk aversion. This situation may persist until looser monetary policies are implemented and more liquidity is available. ETH experienced further declines last week, giving back all of its 2024 gains and returning to the consolidation range seen at the end of 2023. Trading volume was below the historical average. According to the WTA indicator, whale activity was minimal following Friday's drop, and participation levels across all categories have been decreasing. The ME indicator continues to show a bearish trend, with short positions strengthening. In conclusion, we expect ETH to maintain a bearish trend this week. We are lowering the resistance level 2400 and the support level 2100. ETH experienced further declines last week, giving back all of its 2024 gains and returning to the consolidation range seen at the end of 2023. Trading volume was below the historical average. According to the WTA indicator, whale activity was minimal following Friday's drop, and participation levels across all categories have been decreasing. The ME indicator continues to show a bearish trend, with short positions strengthening. In conclusion, we expect ETH to maintain a bearish trend this week. We are lowering the resistance level to 2400 and the support level to 2100.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Sypool
Sep.3-Sep.9(BTC)Weekly market recapLast Friday, employment data was released, showing that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%. Although non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased, they still fell short of expectations. BTC initially rose upon the release of the data but quickly reversed course and turned negative. The U.S. stock market also opened lower, signaling that as the labor market weakens, funds in risk assets are starting to avoid risk. Over the past week, BTC ETF daily fund flows were mostly net outflows, while ETH ETFs saw little significant movement. This reflects the current tight financial environment and increasing risk aversion. This situation may persist until looser monetary policies are implemented and more liquidity is available. Before last Friday, BTC dropped, hitting a support level and then rebounding. Overall trading volume remained consistent with previous periods. However, based on the WTA indicator, whale participation was low. The ME indicator maintained a bearish trend, with the yellow zone continuing to expand. In conclusion, we believe BTC may remain volatile this week. We maintain the original resistance level 62000 and the support level 52500. Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies. Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sypool