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Crypto Alpha Report - January 09, 2025Happy Thursday, friends! There is a lot of fear and panic in the air today. Is the U.S. Government poised to sell $69,000 Bitcoin? Let’s dive into the facts and decide what side of the market is the right side to be on. Last evening, information from Bitcoin Magazine began circulating that the Department of Justice had received court approval to sell approximately $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized from the Silk Road. They received this approval on December 30th, and we are now hearing this. Furthermore, there are claims that this Bitcoin has already “been sold” via a credit line brokered by Coinbase. There is speculation that this is one of the chief sources of the volatility and selling pressure we’ve seen thus far. On the bear side, many are panicking, speculating that this much Bitcoin would obliterate order books and send Bitcoin plummeting to below $30,000 if dumped on the open market. We can safely rule out that scenario. The US Government has sold Bitcoin multiple times in the past: -2014: US Marshals auctioned Bitcoin seized from Silk Road. Tim Draper purchased 30,000 BTC at this time. -2018: USG sells 500 BTC to Riot Blockchain. -2021: USGSA auctioned off less than 1 BTC. -2023: USG auctioned off 9,861 BTC to the tune of $215M. -2024: Significant amounts of Bitcoin have been moved around in USG wallets in 2024, sparking rumors of potential sales. In April 2024, 30,000 BTC was moved, some going to Coinbase, but no official sales occurred. As you can see, although the USG has a history of selling Bitcoin, they have never sold them on the open market. They have always auctioned them off and almost always to individuals who desire to hold them. This fringe idea of 69,000 being market-sold is ludicrous. After some digging, I found the Bitcoin wallet in question. Despite rumors, the coins have NOT been moved to Coinbase. www.blockchain.com The timing of this event is also sparking a lot of debate online over whether or not it is a political move, with the inauguration of a “Bitcoin” president eleven days away. At the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Trump vowed to move for the US Government to keep all of its Bitcoin and not sell any. This sale was greenlit by a federal judge, as stated on December 30th, 2024, after a long and contentious legal battle over ownership rights with Battle Born Investments, with the DOJ citing Bitcoin’s volatility as the primary reason for the approval of the sale, wanting to liquidate assets before the value of the government’s holdings declined. The middle-of-the-road thinking around the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is that Trump would keep all of the USG's current Bitcoin and allocate that to the “reserve.” Of course, the more bullish advocates are expecting the USG to begin spot-buying Bitcoin. Regardless, unless we see Trump roll entirely back on all of his crypto promises, he will likely move to undermine or reverse this sale. The current administration only has 11 days to finalize this sale, and for now, the Bitcoin remains in the Silk Road private wallet. Crypto Market Update Stablecoin Dominance This metric has increased by +3.25% today. At our current primary resistance level of 6%, this has been where we’ve seen buyers step back into the market and defend risk-on positions. However, on the bear side, momentum crosses into the positive zone after a long reversal pattern. Although my gut doesn’t quite believe it, a dispassionate analysis reveals a likely growth in this metric, implying further downside for crypto assets. Bitcoin + Stablecoin Dominance An increase in this metric of 0.42% largely driven by the rise in Stablecoin Dominance, as highlighted above. Currently, altcoins are holding up relatively well to Bitcoin’s decline in price. Similarly concerning for altcoins, however, is that momentum is now pushing into the positive zone without this metric being overly extended. Altcoin Price Performance Relative to Bitcoin A decline in this metric of -1.01%. Despite Bitcoin’s bearishness, altcoins hold their value relatively well compared to previous examples of Bitcoin price declines. Although we can see from yesterday’s Hammer Candle that buyers stepped in significantly, this metric continues to slide down today. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s price has declined below its January lows without triggering significant liquidations. Despite being heavily oversold, Bitcoin’s price has yet to reverse its downward trend, creating the possibility of more short-term downside before rising in anticipation of the US CPI print next Wednesday. Trends 5M: Bearish 30M: Bearish 1H: Bearish 4H: Bearish D: Bullish W: Bullish Bitcoin remains in an overall Bearish trend. Currently trading below VWAP, Bitcoin must break above $92,100 to deviate from the 5M trend. LTF Momentum Oscillators continue to show Bullish Divergence. This is a buying opportunity, but not for a leveraged swing trade. Don’t underestimate the swings FUD can have, and I would like to survive a wick to $88,000 if it occurs. Watch for Bitcoin to regain 30M momentum before longing. Key Levels Slightly different take today. Looking at the 4H Volume Profile, I can see voids in liquidity directly at December’s low at ~$90,250 and slightly lower at ~$88,600. As Bitcoin is trading in a wedge consolidation pattern, I think we don’t need to be significantly concerned with a large-scale breakdown in January. This remains my position, so in the short-term, in the bear case, I want to be prepared for Bitcoin’s price to re-test December’s lows and potentially wick lower to fill that liquidity void. Zooming out below that, to make the bear case, liquidity voids exist at ~$83,000 and ~$77,000, providing downside targets to my contrarian bears reading. Strategy It's a pretty classic trading setup here, guys. We’re at support. This is also a battleground zone, where having an edge is tough - unless you stick to the basics. It's a scary area to long, I know, but that’s the statistically best setup here. If structuring a long, I would ensure it can survive a wick to $88,000 as highlighted above, and my profit target would be ~$95-$97,000. If you’re more inclined to short here, I won’t criticize you; it’s your account. But make sure you have conviction and that your short can survive volatility. I’ll stick to the classic maneuver here.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by CrackingCryptocurrency
BTC.D Breakdown the Next Altcoin Bull Run Closer Than You Think?Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is a crucial metric that reflects Bitcoin's market share relative to the overall cryptocurrency market. A rising dominance often signifies Bitcoin outperforming altcoins, while a declining dominance suggests increased strength in altcoins or a broader altcoin rally. The current chart provides critical insights into the state of Bitcoin dominance, the potential implications for market dynamics, and the timeline for future movements. Key Observations and Technical Insights 1. Breaking the Rising Wedge Pattern The weekly chart shows a classic rising wedge pattern that Bitcoin dominance has adhered to for an extended period. A breakdown from this pattern is a bearish signal, indicating a potential shift in dominance from Bitcoin to altcoins. The wedge breakdown was accompanied by significant bearish momentum, validated by a retest of the breakdown level. This technical development is a strong indication that BTC.D has entered a new phase of its trend. 2. Current Consolidation Zone Following the breakdown, BTC dominance has entered a consolidation phase within the highlighted rectangular box (approximately between 53.2% and 58%). The consolidation suggests market indecision as Bitcoin retains relative strength but altcoin activity starts to increase. Volume levels during this phase are moderate, reflecting a lack of aggressive participation, which is typical before a major directional move. 3.Key Levels to Watch Resistance: The upper boundary of the box (58%) aligns with prior rejection levels. A move above this could indicate a temporary resurgence of Bitcoin dominance, potentially due to increased Bitcoin-led market rallies. Support: The lower boundary of the box (53.2%) is a critical support zone. A sustained break below this level could confirm the next bearish leg. 4. Indicators Supporting the Bearish Bias Ichimoku Cloud: The dominance has started interacting with the cloud's lower boundary, which acts as dynamic resistance. A clean break below the cloud would further confirm bearish momentum. MACD Divergence: The MACD histogram is tilting bearish, signaling weakening upward momentum. A bearish crossover on the MACD line would solidify downside expectations. RSI: The RSI is trending near the midline, showing no extreme conditions. This gives room for further downside before entering oversold territory. Market Implications and Projections 1. Impact of a Breakdown Below the Box If BTC dominance decisively breaks below the 53.2% level, it will likely lead to a significant shift in market dynamics. A drop toward the marked lower levels (approximately 48%, 42.8%, and 39.9%) would indicate the onset of an altcoin season, characterized by robust performance in altcoins. Historically, such breakdowns in BTC.D have coincided with increased speculation and capital rotation into altcoins, signaling the start of a bull run across the cryptocurrency market. 2. Bull Run Timeline The estimated timeline for this critical move is Q1 2025, which aligns with broader market cycles and macroeconomic expectations. Institutional interest in crypto, combined with improved market sentiment, could amplify this trend. 3. Potential Scenarios Bullish Case for BTC.D: A reversal above 58% would require significant Bitcoin-led rallies, possibly fueled by macroeconomic uncertainty or a Bitcoin ETF approval. This scenario delays the altcoin season but strengthens Bitcoin as the primary investment vehicle. Bearish Case for BTC.D: A sustained decline below 53.2% would confirm altcoin strength and could trigger rapid capital rotation into alternative assets, particularly in high-liquidity altcoins and DeFi protocols. This chart provides a professional-grade analysis of Bitcoin dominance and its potential impact on market dynamics. The breakdown from the rising wedge, the ongoing consolidation, and the bearish indicators suggest that BTC.D is on the brink of a major directional move. Traders and investors should closely monitor the consolidation box boundaries and prepare for a shift in market structure as BTC dominance declines. The Q1 2025 timeline for the next leg down aligns with historical patterns and macroeconomic projections. A break below 53.2% will likely usher in a new phase of the crypto market, driven by altcoin strength and increased retail participation. Stay vigilant, as this period could mark the beginning of the next crypto bull run.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by wolfchemist
SOL's situationSOL has crafted an Inverse cup and handle pattern which is gonna Decrease the price. the break out has not happened yet! we can't be sure about the bearish movement yet cause no break out has happened! Support zones are shown on the chart. the strongest support zone is the ultimate comeback point for SOL if things go south. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always manage your risks and trade responsibly. 👉 Follow me for daily updates, 💬 Comment and like to share your thoughts, 📌 And check the link in my bio for even more resources! Let’s navigate the markets together—join the journey today! 💹✨
Short
by CRYPTONIC_trend
SOL/USDT Critical Support Zone in Play Is a Bounce Imminent?SOL/USDT Analysis Price is nearing a key support zone around $185 - $175, which has historically acted as a strong demand area. It is crucial to wait for the price to reach this support level and observe for bullish confirmation (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern or reversal signals). If the price holds this level and bounces, we can expect a significant recovery toward the **$210 - $220** range. A break below $175 would invalidate this setup and could lead to further downside. Strategy 1. Wait for a clear bounce off the support zone before entering a long position. 2. Set initial targets at $210 and $220, with stop loss below $175 for risk management. Keep this chart on your watchlist and monitor price action near support!
Long
by wolfchemist
2
ADA/USDT A Bullish Bounce on the Horizon ?The chart shows Cardano (ADA) pulling back to retest the breakout zone, presenting a potential long opportunity if support holds. Key Observations 1. Retest of Pattern: ADA has broken out of a pattern and is now retesting the breakout zone, which aligns with a critical support area. 2. Support Zone ($0.90–$0.88): This is an important level where price is likely to bounce if buyers step in. 3. Bullish Confirmation Needed: Waiting for a bullish candlestick pattern at this level would confirm a potential reversal. 4. Target Levels: If the bounce occurs, the immediate target would be $1.00+, with further potential upside depending on market momentum. Strategic Implications Monitor the $0.90–$0.88 zone for bullish signals. Enter long positions upon confirmation of a bullish candlestick pattern. Stop-loss placement below $0.88 to manage risk effectively. ADA is at a crucial retest point. A strong bounce from support could provide a profitable long setup with targets above $1.00. Keep this pair on watch for confirmation.
Long
by wolfchemist
BTC/USDT Breakout Strategy & Long SetupThe chart presents a clear structure for BTC/USDT on the 4-hour timeframe. After a significant retracement from the recent highs, BTC has formed a descending channel, which it has now broken out of, signaling potential bullish momentum. Chart Observations Descending Channel Breakout BTC was trading in a well-defined descending channel, consolidating near a critical demand zone. The breakout above this channel suggests a potential reversal in trend. Key Support Zone The price has respected the support range between $94,800 and $95,400, which aligns with a high-volume area and serves as a strong buy zone. Buyers have consistently stepped in here to defend this level. Demand Zone Test A retest of this support zone has provided a new opportunity to accumulate long positions. The candlestick wicks and volume activity indicate significant buying pressure in this area. Ascending Channel Formation Post-breakout, BTC is trading within an ascending channel, which offers potential upside targets as the price moves towards the upper resistance trendline. Short-Term Pullback Completed The previous bearish movement was capped at the support zone, with the "short position" trade closed as the price reversed into bullish territory. This reversal strengthens the case for a long position targeting higher levels. Volume and Momentum Increasing volume near the breakout and demand zone suggests that buyers are regaining control. Momentum indicators (not shown here) likely confirm this bullish bias. Key Insights for the Trade Idea Buy Zone The optimal entry for this trade is between $94,800 and $95,400, coinciding with the retest of the support zone and the lower trendline of the ascending channel. Stop Loss: A tight stop loss at $92,574 protects against downside risk while allowing room for natural price fluctuation. Targets: Gradual profit-taking is recommended at the following resistance levels, derived from Fibonacci extensions and key price levels. Targets 🎯: $96,333 – Immediate resistance and the first key level of profit-taking. $97,285 – Mid-range resistance within the ascending channel. $98,230 – Upper mid-point of the bullish channel. $99,212 – Close to psychological resistance and ascending channel boundary. $100,211 – Psychological round number and major resistance zone. Stop Loss $92,574: Positioned below the critical support zone to avoid invalidating the bullish setup. This setup presents a high-risk-to-reward opportunity with clear entry, exit, and risk management strategies. Adjust position size according to your trading plan and always adhere to risk management principles.
Long
by wolfchemist
1
Bitcoin Daily ReviewSeven 8H bear candles in a row... approximately 1 billion liquidations in longs alone within past two days. BTC finally dipped below 2024 close ✅ I still believe that BTC should bounce back to +/- 98k. At least while market moves sideway (for the past 2 months) its justified to expect price to stay within the range (until it is broken). Previous consolidation stage took more than 8 months, so I hope this time it won't be that extended. If that consolidation range will get broken, correction target is pointed by multiple factors: CME gap + 2024 VAH + developing Week 20sma - it all comes to +/- 80k Nearest liquidity pools: above - 93850 / 95750 / 96710 / 97350 below - 92540 / 92025 / 91065 / 89590 Lines on the chart: 🔸99660 - November high 🔸98340 - week close 🔸97843 - Q4 VAH 🔸96475 - November close 🔸93549 - 2024 close 🔸91510 - week low 🔸90200 - December low Trend: D ➡️ W 🔼 M 🔼 🤑 F&G: 69 < 70 < 78 < 76 < 72
by WiseAnalyze
Trade trainingHello guys This time we came with classic price action training. As you can see, after a strong upward movement, the price entered suffering and made a ceiling and made a heavy fall, which caused the failure of the previous floor. Now we can enter into a sell transaction with the first pullback, and our target will be the defined support range. Now that the price has entered the channel after the spike, we can still enter into a sell transaction with any upward move until we see signs of trend reversal. *Trade safely with us*
Education
by TheHunters_Company
ETH: This May Be Your Last Chance Before Exploding to Upside !!Don't lose hope; it's not time yet. As you can see, there are still signs of potential price growth in the higher time frames. If you really have patience, start buying gradually during these price drops and have a hope . This exprience coming from someone who has seen Ethereum at $50. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by CobraVanguard
1
Bulls & Bears cycles of #Bitcoin.Good day, dear investors. We present to your attention the analysis of the last 2 #Bitcoin growth cycles and the forecast for the beginning of the bear cycle. The data demonstrated a surprising coincidence of numbers: - the bull cycle (the growth of the asset from the minimum quote, to which the asset has not returned) is 1050 days on average. - the bear cycle consists of 365 days on average. At the same time, with each cycle, the depth of the asset correction also decreases: - 2017/2018 loss of 85% of the value of Bitcoin and 95% of Ether. - 2021/2022 loss of 75% of the value of Bitcoin and 80% of Ether. Our conservative forecast for the value of Bitcoin is 150,000. A positive forecast, in the event of the adoption of the "Law on the Strategic Reserve" - ​​250,000. William Abagnale Cryptanalyst of Vokcapital.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by VOKCAPITAL
AI Agent Virtual's - The potential of DAO Hedge funds- Bull CaseExtremely bullish on AI victuals AI Agents assign trust scores to everyone that interacts with them, enabling an order book of the most reliable alpha from every conversation. Some prices i see as attainable moving into the trump inauguration and beyond. The future is here. Read further below price points for a in depth look into Agent virtuals 5 Billion Market Cap: $4.78 10 Billion Market Cap: $9.56 15 Billion Market Cap: $14.33 50 Billion Market Cap: $47.78 Support : $1.66 First resistance: $1.88 Resistance: $2.88 Midterm target: $3.88 Paper Summary: Core Idea: Proposes a "Marketplace of Trust" system to evaluate the reliability of information. Mechanism: User Recommendations: Human users provide recommendations (e.g., investment advice, content moderation). AI Agent Trading: An AI agent places bets in a virtual market based on these recommendations. Trust Score Calculation: Real-world outcomes of the AI's bets determine each user's "trust score." Social Reinforcement: Publicly displayed trust scores incentivize users to provide reliable information. Key Goals: Align individual incentives with honest participation. Leverage collective intelligence to surface trustworthy information. Applications: Investing, trading, content moderation, decentralized governance, open source development. Trading Thesis: Market Context: Attractive Sector: AI Virtual likely belongs to a growing sector (AI/Virtual Reality) within the broader cryptocurrency market. Market Cap: $2 billion within a $15 billion sector and a $4 trillion crypto market suggests potential for significant growth. Thesis: Long-Term Growth Potential with High Risk. Bullish Arguments: First-mover Advantage: If the "Marketplace of Trust" concept gains traction and is successfully implemented, AI Virtual could become a leading player in this niche. Sector Growth: The AI Virtual sector is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI, VR/AR technologies, and increasing demand for immersive experiences. Cryptocurrency Adoption: Continued growth of the cryptocurrency market could significantly boost the value of AI Virtual. Bearish Arguments: Competition: The AI Virtual sector is likely to become increasingly competitive with new entrants and innovative technologies. Technological Risks: The success of the "Marketplace of Trust" depends heavily on the effectiveness of the AI agent and the robustness of the system against manipulation. Regulatory Uncertainty: The cryptocurrency market faces regulatory uncertainty, which could negatively impact the performance of AI Virtual. Trading Strategy: Long-Term Investment: For long-term investors, AI Virtual may offer significant upside potential, but with increased risk tolerance. Diversification: Diversify holdings within the AI Virtual sector and the broader cryptocurrency market to mitigate risk. Continuous Monitoring: Closely monitor the development and adoption of the "Marketplace of Trust" technology, competitive landscape, and regulatory developments. Disclaimer: This is a general market analysis and not financial advice. Conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Key Considerations: Team: Evaluate the strength of the development team, their track record, and their ability to execute the project. Technology: Assess the technological feasibility and potential of the "Marketplace of Trust" system. Community: Analyze the size and engagement of the community surrounding AI Virtual. By carefully considering these factors and conducting thorough due diligence, not financial advice.
Long
by Helios_Capital_Investment
"OMG BTC IS DEAD"Are you still sure about that?? Sure BTC, worst-case scenario, may even fall to 74k FVG or 85k Fibonacci-support at short-term and that'll imply BTC pierced with full force its current Ichimoku support, but you're missing the big picture... BTC ultimate potential for this year as per Elliot-Wave theory and Fibonacci levels is to reach 333k around 4/20... And yes I'm not joking, if we reach that ultimate Elliot-Wave impulse wave then we can talk about a proper correction in the first half-of the year and then the second Primary Elliot-Wave impuse comes... If I ask if I'm still sure about something: I'd say that Seeing is believing... DYOR/NFAD
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by masterquiroga
1
Chiliz - The Best Sports Crypto Im going to be breaking-down what I feel are the best long-term holds in each sector/category of crypto. This is the Sports/Entertainment category. I will tell you the pros and cons of each project. Chiliz When looking at the chart we can see that Chiliz has been moving in a downward trend for quite some time. On the weekly chart we can see the CHZ has formed a strong bullish divergence. The sports narrative has not yet picked up any steam but once it does, you can bet that CHZ will lead the pack. Pros of Chiliz (CHZ) Fan Tokens: Through partnerships with sports teams, especially in football (soccer), Chiliz allows fans to own tokens that can be used for things like voting in polls, receiving merchandise, or influencing minor team decisions, increasing fan loyalty and engagement. Real-World Use Cases: Partnerships with Major Sports Organizations: Chiliz has forged partnerships with prominent sports teams, such as FC Barcelona, Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), and many others, integrating the platform into the fan experience in meaningful ways. Socios.com: Chiliz powers Socios.com, a leading platform that lets fans buy and trade tokens from sports clubs. This ecosystem enhances the use of CHZ and contributes to the growing adoption of the project. Expanding Ecosystem: The project has continued to expand its roster of partnerships with sports leagues, which helps it grow both in the number of users and in the diversity of tokens it offers. Cons of Chiliz (CHZ) Niche Focus: Chiliz’s focus on sports and entertainment means its success is tied to these industries. If fan engagement in sports decreases or the tokenization model doesn't take off as expected, it could significantly affect CHZ’s value and relevance. Legal and Regulatory Risk: Like other cryptocurrencies, Chiliz faces regulatory uncertainty. Countries and jurisdictions are still figuring out how to regulate fan tokens, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies, which could affect Chiliz’s operations and its partnerships with sports teams. Potential for Regulatory Crackdown: If the legal landscape becomes stricter, there could be negative consequences for Chiliz and other crypto projects in the sports and entertainment space. All in all, this is not financial advice and instead just my opinion. Thanks for viewing my post and make sure to check out my other ideas!
Long
by Nutty_Trader
Technical Analysis of Nasdaq 100: Key Support Holds as Bulls The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is currently trading at 21,100, with a target price of 23,000, suggesting a bullish outlook and a potential rise of 1,900 points. The price is holding above a key trendline, which acts as a strong support level. This trendline's role is significant, as the recent bounce from this support confirms its reliability. The pattern indicates that the index may continue its upward trajectory if no major resistance levels hinder its movement. Such a setup suggests the market sentiment remains positive. A break above intermediate resistance levels could accelerate the rally. However, traders must remain cautious of external factors like earnings reports or Federal Reserve policy updates that might affect momentum. Proper risk management is essential to navigate potential volatility.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Bitcoin monthly candles starting to look spookyBitcoin has given up its gains made in the initial days of the year following a very strong performance last year. But in December, BTC/USD formed an inverted hammer candle at technically overbought levels, potentially providing a bearish signal for the early parts of this year. Each time the monthly RSI has risen above 70.00 it has invariably dropped back because of a sell-off in BTC/USD rather than a mere consolidation. We could see another drop to work off its overbought conditions before the next bull run potentially starts in the months ahead. What makes Bitcoin more interesting this time is the fact the bearish monthly signal has been formed around a major milestones of $100K. If the December low of $91,271 breaks, and BTC holds below that level, then we could see the onset of a correction. While the dip could ultimately prove to be shallow this time because of the impact of Trump and Musk, prices could still dip towards long-term support levels such as $74K or even $65K. Should we get to these levels, I would then expect to see a potential low and the onset of another rally. But we will cross that bridge if and when we get there. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FOREXcom
BTC head and shoulders? (-.-)To me, this head and shoulders has many issues such as not being symmetrical, no actual head and a weak looking left shoulder. We haven't even touched the neckline yet and people are freaking out about it. If anything a better light to reframe this in is a potential triple topping pattern. That makes more sense than any kind of buzz word pattern we're forcing a bias onto the chart when it's not even fulfilled. If the neckline doesn't break, it's not a fulfilled pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Lsabbott