Cryptomarket
Aave into ApexAave has moved into newly appeared weekly 200ma
This beautiful structure we refer to as an apex setup. While first test may need a bit of support.. the technical setup looks great for aave to eventually breakout above this apex and run very nicely.
Aave fundamentally is obviously performing incredibly well relative to the space. As eth experience influx of money from larger entities like blackrock.. theres a good chance Aaves presence and protocol will become much more well known and respected.
Perhaps mitigate with other chain competitors
If other chains like solana surge again which seems quite likely.. then lending platforms there can offer quite a bit of competition esp for retail users. May be best to look for good entries into competitors there like Kamino.
BTCUSD | Trade ideaBTCUSD is trading weak ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, having hit a low of $55,282 and currently hovering around $55,958.
The number of large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has reached a one-month high of 16,120, indicating that whales are buying BTC at lower levels.
BTC ETFs have experienced an outflow of $211 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 57% from 70% a week ago.
US Markets:
NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC): Bearish but neutral for BTC, trading weak ahead of the NFP data. A close above 20,000 could push the index to 20,500.
Technical Analysis:
BTCUSD is trading below the short-term 34-EMA and 55-EMA, as well as the long-term 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating weakness.
On the daily chart, BTC remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, confirming minor weakness.
Support Levels:
Minor support at $54,000. A break below could push BTC to $53,000/$50,000/$46,000.
Bullish Scenario:
Primary supply zone: $57,000. A break above this level could confirm intraday bullish momentum with potential targets of $60,000/$61,800/$63,000/$65,000/$67,000/$70,000.
Secondary barrier: $70,000. A close above could target $75,000/$80,000.
Sept 6. Start DCA'ing these altsOverview:
The FRED:SP500 is down, NASDAQ:QQQ is down even more, and COINBASE:BTCUSD has dropped. Everything is red! Or wait… BINANCE:SUIUSDT is up! Could this still be the effects of the Grayscale Trust, and how much longer can SUI defy the overall market? Previous Grayscale picks like BINANCE:NEARUSDT and BINANCE:TAOUSDT aren’t performing as well on red days like yesterday.
The Fed reported fewer new jobs added in August—lower than expected, even after multiple revisions. This was also fewer than the job additions in August of the past few years. Quantitative tightening is in full swing! These metrics signal a potential path to a rate cut, but large economies like the U.S. don’t pivot easily, especially not with just a move from 5.50% to 5.25%. Higher unemployment and fewer job openings will likely persist for months, possibly even quarters.
Yet, no federal bailouts? No major bankruptcies? Meanwhile, commercial real estate is still struggling, with San Francisco’s office vacancy rate rising to 37%, up from 36.7% in Q1 2024.
BTC ETFs are seeing 9 consecutive days of outflows. BINANCE:ETHUSD has seen consistent selling throughout August, except for a slight uptick on August 28th when Blackrock bought slightly above the original Grayscale Trust level.
Believe it or not, this is when whales start dollar-cost averaging (DCA) back into the market. So why is the market falling if big players are buying? These deep pockets unloaded their portfolios and secured profits early in the year when green candles were stacking up. The current selling pressure is from retail traders, as reflected in ETF trends.
If you still have cash (or those precious paychecks), this could be a good time to spread it out into 10-15 weekly buy orders. Don't try to catch the exact bottom—just remember the old adage: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
W: It’s only the first week of a bloody September, and BTC is already nearing the $52.15k weekly level. Sunday might be calm, with a potential bounce back to $55.9k. But watch out for Sunday evening (U.S. Eastern time) when the Asian bears wake up.
D: Friday closed lower than August 5th. This is the third time we’re testing the $52-54k range—July 5, August 5, and now September 6. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. The worrying sign: yesterday’s volume was much lower than the previous two occurrences. No need to look far; volume has been rising over the last 7 days, confirming bearish sentiment.
4h: RSI dipped below 30 at 4 PM Eastern, but since then it’s bounced back 1.5%. Looking back at July 5 and August 5, we can see a key level around $54.4k (though this doesn’t hold on the daily chart). This is the point where decisions must be made.
1h: Price action is moving sideways.
Alts relative to BTC: ETH has dropped more than BTC and other altcoins, falling to levels not seen since January 11th when the BTC ETF was approved. The argument that Layer 2 solutions diminish ETH’s "sound money" status isn’t helping. Bearish. On the bright side, APT has been trading below BTC ETF demand for 91 days and could be a good option for DCA. SUI shrugged off the recent sell-off and posted a 5.13% green candle, making it another solid contender alongside APT, as both are already below BTC ETF price levels.
Bull case: Everyone who could sell has already sold. Now, only the diamond hands remain.
Bear case: The capital allocators have finished realizing gains, and retail traders are finally waking up to the fact that the bull run has been canceled.
Fear and Greed Index: 25.97 – an all-time low for 2024 and 2023.
Prediction: A short-term rebound over the weekend, followed by further declines next week.
Opportunities: Check out weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins. Are you shorting TON yet?
Mistakes: The bullish MACD divergence didn’t play out for BINANCE:SOLUSD , BINANCE:ARUSD , and BINANCE:AVAXUSDT . When big brother (BTC) makes a move, it doesn’t matter what the technical analysis says for altcoins.
BTCUSDT / UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE - 1DBTCUSDT / 1D TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under upward pressure until prices trading above 52.047 .
The current upward pressure on prices is supported by the fact that they are trading above the key level of 52,047. Staying above this level signals continued bullish momentum, with projections suggesting potential gains toward 57,112 and eventually reaching 64,853, a key supply zone where sellers may step in. For the uptrend to be confirmed, prices need to break through this supply zone.
However, if prices drop below the turning level of 52,047 and a daily or 4-hour candle closes beneath it, this would indicate a potential reversal. In such a case, prices could fall to 46,981, with further downside potential to 44,019. A confirmed downtrend would require prices to stabilize below the 46,981 support level, signaling stronger bearish sentiment.
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 52,047.
Resistance Levels : 57,112 , 64,853.
Support Levels : 46,981 , 44,019.
ETH/USDT: High-Volume Breakout, Downside Risk -19.34%?Hey Realistic Traders, let's dive into the technical analysis of BINANCE:ETHUSDT
In the H4 timeframe, the price stubbornly stays below the EMA100, reinforcing the strong bearish trend we've been watching . A rising wedge pattern had formed, but recently, the price took a dive, breaking out of that pattern with high trading volume—never a good sign for the bulls. Adding fuel to the fire, the MACD has made a bearish crossover, with the MACD line slipping below the signal line, signaling that the downward momentum is picking up steam.
With all these technical indicators lining up, we’re eyeing a potential continuation of this downward journey toward Target Area 1 at 2,252.90 or even Target Area 2 at 2,073.77. However, bulls might find some hope if the price manages to break above the resistance level at 2,855.96.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Ethereum.
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DOGECOIN / TRADING INTO DESCENDING CHANNEL - 4HDOGECOIN / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The overall trend is downward , until trading below turning level at 0.102
The asset's price action suggests a potential downtrend as it currently trades below the key level of 0.102. This level often acts as a significant turning level , so trading below it indicates bearish momentum. A further decline to 0.094 is expected because it represents the next logical support level where buying interest might increase. If this level fails to hold, the price could drop to 0.084, a stronger support that might prevent further declines.
However, if the price can break above the 0.102 level and sustain that move, it would indicate a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. This could lead to a rally towards 0.112, a resistance level that could attract selling pressure. A continued move higher might take the price to 0.121, where significant resistance could be encountered.
KEY LEVELS :
TURNING LEVEL : 0.102 .
RESISTANCE LEVELS : 0.094 , 0.084 .
SUPPORT LEVELS : 0.112 , 0.121 .
XRPUSDT / REMAIN BELOW ASCENDING CHANNEL - 4HXRPUSDT - 4H
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under downward pressure , until trading below turning level at 0.58 .
The prices are currently trading below the ascending channel and are likely to attempt a retest to reach the turning point at 0.58 before beginning a decline toward the support level at 0.54, with a further drop expected down to 0.52.
However, if the 0.58 level is broken and a 4-hour candle closes above it, the price may rise toward the first resistance level at 0.62, and potentially further to 0.65
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 0.58 .
Resistance Levels : 0.62 , 0.65 .
Support Levels : 0.54 , 0.52 .
ADA Spot trade | 1200% or ATH potential in 2025 Bull MarketADA is showing strong potential for a massive 1200% surge or a new ATH in the 2025 bull market. With Cardano's ongoing developments and increasing adoption, this could be a powerful long-term play. Watch for key breakout levels as we head into the next cycle! 🚀 #ADA #Cardano #Crypto"
NOTUSDT / UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE - 4HNOTUSDT / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The overall trend remains downward as long as trading stays below the turning level of 0.009 .
It is reasonable to expect that prices will remain under downward pressure as long as they stay below the turning level of 0.009 because this level acts as a critical resistance point. Without a decisive break above it, sellers maintain control, leading to potential declines toward the next support levels at 0.007 and 0.006.
The requirement for a 4-hour or 1-hour candle close above the turning level to signal an upward move is justified by the need for confirmation that the market has gained enough bullish momentum to push prices higher. Once this occurs, the path toward the resistance levels at 0.011 and 0.013 becomes more likely, as it indicates that buyers are regaining control.
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 0.009
Resistance Levels : 0.011, 0.013
Support Levels : 0.007 , 0.006
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The recent market activity witnessed a continued decline in the value of Bitcoin, leading to a significant drop and triggering a shift to our designated Key Support level of 54000. Current market sentiment indicates a potential recovery towards Mean Resistance 56700, possibly extending to Mean Resistance 59200. It is pertinent to acknowledge that persistent selling pressure at this stage could precipitate a further down towards the previously completed Interim Coin Dip 50000 before a resurgence occurs.
Possible scenario and death cross risk.Our first rule is that everything is possible in this market. Therefore, we should not act emotionally and stick to a single thought.
Fed decisions are now very critical.
If Bitcoin rises above 70,000, this scenario will be cancelled.
I hope Fed will make the market happy.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any digital asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
ETH analysis review 2024/09/07
Result:
It's been 21 hours since I posted the BINANCE:ETHUSDT analysis. The price of ETH is moving back and forth, fluctuating between the 2300 and 2400 range, and there have been 5 trading opportunities since then.
Difficulty Review:
1st and 2nd one are harder because they bounce the price from the 2350.
The other 3 are easier, and we should aim to nail them.
The future:
If it break 2100, the long term price will change from Long to neutral, lets see.
Trade safe! Sleep well! Play Hard!
Have a good weekend!
Bitcoin Collapse Underway -75% ProbableBitcoin is collapsing, it will go deep.
As of right now, I am looking for AT LEAST a -75% selloff, with the expectation that we will soon test the 2018 price level.
This thing might be wiped out entirely.
I really don't have much else to say.
Good luck everyone.
BTC Swing Long to 65k & 70kTrade Idea: Bottom for Bitcoin Might Be In
This chart suggests that Bitcoin may have found its bottom, with the potential for a bullish reversal. The following elements highlight this outlook:
1. Liquidity Zones:
- Liquidity/TP1: The chart highlights a take-profit zone (TP1) near the $64,000 level, where liquidity is expected to reside. This is the target area for the long trade.
- Prev. Monthly High: This is noted above the $70,000 level, potentially acting as a higher resistance level and extended target if momentum continues after TP1.
2. Entry Zone:
- The gray shaded area near the $55,000 level represents the entry zone, with liquidity around this price. This suggests that the price may have tapped into an important liquidity pool before starting its upward movement.
- External Liquidity: This region below the current price might have acted as a liquidity sweep, further confirming the bottoming pattern.
3. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
- The chart identifies a FVG (Fair Value Gap) around the $56,000 level, which could act as an area of interest. Price has filled this gap, possibly signaling the completion of its downward move.
4. Market Structure:
- The market appears to have tested lower liquidity levels and rejected them, potentially signaling that a local bottom has been established. The price action shows consolidation in the entry area, indicating accumulation before a potential upward move.
This trade idea would be well-suited for traders anticipating a medium-term bounce after Bitcoin’s recent downward movement.
Centralized Exchanges See Uptick In Trading VolumesMarket Update - September 6, 2024
Takeaways
The market faced a broad decline over the past week: More than $162 million in crypto liquidations occurred last weekend, primarily from long positions, as US bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows totaling $276 million. As of Thursday, the price of bitcoin had dropped to nearly $56,000.
The SEC has expressed concerns over FTX’s proposed distribution of stablecoins to creditors: While FTX’s plan aims to repay 98% of creditors in cash, the SEC may take the stance that remaining distributions made in crypto violate federal securities laws.
Cardano implemented its “Chang” upgrade, shifting control from its founding bodies to a decentralized governance structure using the ADA token: The long-awaited enhancement allows the community to vote on proposals and elect governance representatives.
High-ranking Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan, detained in Nigeria since February, appeared in court on Monday in pain after being denied a wheelchair: His lawyers have filed for bail on medical grounds, citing multiple health issues, but the prosecution has opposed the request.
Trading volumes on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges saw a roughly 6.6% MoM increase in August, reaching $1.2 trillion: Exchanges in North America experienced more than a 21% increase in activity compared to July.
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#Bitcoin 1D chart updated;CRYPTOCAP:BTC 1D chart;
Let's do a general #Bitcoin analysis;
Bitcoin hasn't had a daily EMA (50-200) crossover in a little over 11 months. However, if it continues like this, it will experience a Dead Cross cross in a few days. This can also be interpreted as a bearish signal. This intersection does not mean that it will fall 100%, but it is one of the strong signals.
Bitcoin continues its downtrend after its historic peak, making continuous lower highs.
I would like to draw your attention to the MSS levels; they signal a trend reversal. The last upward trend reversal happened and it hasn't changed to the downside yet. For this to happen, a close below the +OB level of $56000 is required. Then the downside MSS will take place. Following this closely will give you an idea of the possible trend direction.
It last tested the $49000 level with a hard pin. This is the OB resistance. We see that this area is working well.
I still think that the $48000 level, which I have mentioned every time (unless there is no contrary data), can be retested.
However, if there is a close below it, the OB at $42000 and the BPR (Balance Price Range) at $41000, just below it, could be tested.
These are not possibilities that I expect, I just want to let you know that these levels exist. In a possible dire scenario, these levels can be targeted to determine entry points.
Bitcoin's Eternal Wait for Rate Cuts ContinuesThe current market setup can be described as 'Waiting for Godot'. But in contrast to the Samuel Beckett play, markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve to finally start cutting interest rates. And hopefully, also unlike in the actual play, the wait will not be eternal.
Over the past week, market sentiment dropped even further. Jitters about the slowing US economy and rumours, later denied by the company, of a subpoena by the Department of Justice issued to AI stock darling Nvidia over antitrust matter led traditional markets downwards. Crypto markets quickly followed suit. Bitcoin has foreshadowed the slow slide downwards of the wider crypto market.
Ever since Bitcoin lost its parabolic momentum earlier in the year, it has trended down, first towards the $60k support. Once Bitcoin breached through the $60k level, and in the absence of any new positive momentum, we are now looking at the $50k price mark. Optimism right now is hard to come by for most traders.
The upcoming US jobs report for August has created further expectations of possible doom and gloom. Economists expect that the August jobs report will show that the labor market is cooling, but not dramatically. Consensus estimates are for a net gain of 160,000 jobs, which would be an increase over July’s estimated 114,000 gain according to FactSet estimates.
The outcome of the August jobs report will be an important driver for the extent to which the Federal Reserve will cut rates. The decision is both critical and difficult. Cut rates too much and markets could start raising inflation expectations. Do not cut them enough and the economy could weaken further as businesses reel from high rates on their debt. Whatever they do, the impact of lower rates will take time to show effects. In the meantime, markets can continue to struggle.
A final unknown variable in this setup are the upcoming US elections. It is likely that weaker economic performance will hurt the chances of the incumbent administration. Crypto markets clearly favour a Trump presidency due to his recently discovered pro-crypto stance. Not even the best analysts can predict the full extent of the the 2nd and 3rd order impacts of a weakening economy, possible rate cuts and a US election that is on knife's edge. Markets hate uncertainty. Unfortunately there seems to be plenty more of it to come before traders can finally start to look upwards once more.
BTC USD Idea56120.00 is destroyed. Bearish range, bearish order flow. Slowly, the market is just tricking buyers in and killing them softly, with just absorption and kill tricks. I have lost more than a few scalps, which is okay. I'm not trading until the daily bias gives me the next bearish move, which I will start scalping down. Well, overall, we are in the middle of the monthly bullish range still, but it doesn't matter. It can go either way. Clearly, the market maker is just pushing it down. I'll keep looking for trades and keep posting here