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Technical analysis of major crypto currencies: Jan 30 – Feb 5Last week in the news It was a relatively calm week on financial markets in the wake of the coming FOMC meeting on the first day of February. In this sense, some higher volatility might be back on the market, especially if FED hikes rates by 25bps, as the market is expecting. Positive sentiment for equity markets across US and EU were published GDP data for the US, whose economy expanded in Q4 by 2,9%, better than forecasted 2,6%. Still, recession fears remain high on the markets. Bitcoin is finishing the week by testing $23K resistance, while Ether is holding above $1.5K. Equity markets across the US and EU were supported during the previous week by better than expected GDP data for the US. The US economy rose by 2,9% in Q4 2022 which was better from the market estimate of 2,6%. Still, some slow down in the output of the US economy is evident, considering that Q3 GDP post was 3,2%. Regardless of the better than expected results, the fear of a coming recession is still strong among investors on the market. As it takes time for the monetary measures to reflect in the real economy, the currently ongoing series of layoffs in the US and across the world, and the slowdown of China's output, might all result in a gradual decrease of economic output in the coming period. As of February 1st the FED will announce a decision over the further rate increases. The market is expecting a further 25 bps hike, a slowdown from previous higher increases, which would be a certain signal that the FED is heading toward the end of its monetary tightening. Certainly, the week ahead will be an important week for the financial markets and fundamentals. Current lay-offs wave in the crypto industry continues. During the previous week a crypto-exchange company Luno, which is part of the Digital Currency Group, announced that it will cut 330 jobs, which is roughly one third of their current number of employees. As a reason for such a step the management of the company noticed a very hard previous year for the tech industry, as it has significantly impacted their growth and revenues. As Coindesk is reporting the investment firm SkyBridge Capital, owned by famous investor, Antony Scaramucci, lost 39% of its value due to the crypto coins downturn during the previous year, as well as investments into collapsed FTX exchanger. Due to this huge loss in value, the investors are seeking a redemption of about 60% of the fund's capital. The non-fungible tokens are again expanding their presence in the news. It comes after the crypto winter, where investors and people from the industry are searching new ways in order to further expand the use of NFT`s. News attention came after the Aptos (APT) token surged by more than 300% since the beginning of the year. The management of the Aptos company is looking at the expansion of the use of NFT`s above the current use as a collectables and into the NFT`s as the exchangers of the value. Crypto market cap After a quite optimistic beginning of the year, the crypto market slowed down during the previous week. The current economic and crypto winter news were exhausted, and the market is currently waiting for new signals in order to choose the trading side. Latest posted figures on US GDP shows that the US economy is still able to sustain extreme monetary tightening from the FED, however, insecurity over the potential higher recession in the US and the rest of the world, especially China, is still shaping investors confidence. In the week ahead, FOMC will decide on further rate hike, in which sense, some volatility is coming on markets, after a relatively quiet week. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, still holding at $1 trillion. Although the main coins lost some of their value, altcoins saved the game during the week, adding counterbalance to the total crypto cap to remain flat. Daily trading volumes decreased compared to a week before, moving around $80B on a daily basis, which is a drop from $117B, or $153B three weeks ago. It is evidence that the market is drying up as the investors are waiting for a new market signal in order to choose a trading side. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 33% since the beginning of this year, adding total $246B to the market cap, and without change from a week before. Altcoins saved the week for the crypto market. While major coins performed relatively flat, or with a small drop in value, the majority of altcoins dragged the capital back on the market, leading to total crypto market capitalization flat on a weekly basis. Bitcoin and Binance Coin remained relatively flat compared to the week before in terms to their market capitalization, while Ether passed a struggle, losing almost $10B in value, decreasing the market cap by less than 5%. Tether had a relatively good week, where the coin added $1B to the value of its market cap or 1.5%. Some of the highest weekly winners in relative terms were OMG Network, adding more than 11% to its cap, Polygon, with a surge of 8.5% or Algorand, with an increase of 6.5%. Filecoin continues to increase its coins in circulation, adding 1.5% of coins during the previous week, and increasing its market cap by 9.5% within a single week. Crypto futures market Developments from the spot market were reflected in the prices of both BTC and ETH futures during the previous week. However, it should be mentioned another important development, which is related to slope reversion of the futures curve. Namely, after some time we have finally faced the situation that prices for longer term futures are higher from the short term ones. This might be perceived as an important break-through on the market, as indicates that investors are finally perceiving the end of the crypto winter as well as, improvement in the macroeconomic environment which would again lead to increase in value of assets, including crypto. BTC short term futures finished the previous week higher by some 4% on average. At the same time longer term futures were up more than 11%, with December 2023 ending the week at the price of $23.390. Prices for December 2024 were higher by more than 13% on a weekly basis, ending the week at level of $23.565. In line with the spot market, ETH`s short term futures were down by some 2%. At the same time, longer term futures were traded higher by 6%, with December 2023 ending the week at $1.623. Futures maturing in December 2024 were 9.5% higher from the week before, ending the week at level of $1.639.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, January 23 – 29Last week in the news Positive sentiment from the week before, continued also during the previous week. Both EU and US equity markets gained, in expectation that the FED will slow down its monetary tightening and increase of reference interest rates. The crypto market is also weighing on the same news, despite further negative news from the industry related to FTX contingencies. Bitcoin broke $23K, while Ether is holding above $1.6K. The FTX collapse contingencies continue on the crypto market. During the previous week the crypto lending firm Genesis filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The company filled in its documents with over 100.000 creditors. It is also noted that the company owes $3.5 billion to 50 largest creditors. One of the names that is mentioned is Stellar Development foundation, which is founded as a non-profit organisation, with the aim to promote the Stellar blockchain. For some time now Genesis has been in the news over the speculations on its exposures toward the FTX exchanger and problems in their lending business. Layoffs in the tech and crypto industry continue. As per a letter submitted to Google employees, the CEO of Google, Sundar Pichai, noted that the company will start laying off a total 12.000 of its staff in the U.S. and in other countries. Google is just another large tech company who decided on this step in expectation of the forthcoming recession, and after Microsoft announced a decrease of 10.000 of its workforce and Amazon of 18.000. The CryptoCompare issued a report on the crypto market trends during the year 2022, noting that the Binance exchanger gained the highest share of the exchangers market, increasing it by 16,3% y/y. As it has been noted in the report, the increase is a result of higher adoption of cryptocurrencies, “particularly in the emerging markets”. Although China banned both use of the cryptocurrencies and its mining, still, they are looking ahead to the introduction of their own digital currency called digital yuan. For a few years the project has been developed and is currently in the testing phase. As Coindesk is reporting, the smart-contract functionality for digital yuan is enabled for the e-commerce platform Maituan, which is one of the largest platforms in China for food delivery. This would be the first time that the smart contracts for the CBDC will be tested on a large scale of retail users. The big 4 rating agencies are still not convinced over the future performance of the Coinbase (COIN). During the previous week the rating agency Moody's downgraded this company to so-called “junk” or non-investment grade. The agency is noting “weakened revenue and cash flow generation capacity” for such an action, coming from continuous challenges from the operating environment. Crypto market cap The optimism from the previous week is still holding on the market. Equities have positively perceived voicing from several FED officials who will support further tightening of the US monetary policy, but with lower rates increases, at 25 bps. Since this is in line with market expectations, the markets had another green week. Contingencies of the FTX collapse continued on the crypto market, with Genesis filling for the Chapter 11, which was also in line with the market expectations. With the latest surge in the crypto coin prices, total crypto market capitalization reached again $1 trillion, reaching the level from the beginning of November last year. During the previous week the crypto market surged by additional 8%, adding $71B to its cap, outperforming equity markets for one more time. The largest contributors of this surge were the most popular coins on the market. Still, daily trading volumes were modestly decreased during the week, reaching $117B on a weekly basis, which is a drop from $153B traded during a week before. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 33% since the beginning of this year, adding total $246B to the market cap. Increase in the total crypto market capitalization during the previous week was mostly supported by the two largest coins on the market, BTC and ETH. Bitcoin outperformed the market with a surge in cap of more than 11%, adding $45.7B to its capitalization on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, which added $16.2B to market cap, increasing it by 8.7%. Another coin with quite good weekly performance in nominal terms was Solana, with a gain of $1.18B, or more than 14% within a single week. This was one of the rare weeks when Binance Coin did not contribute significantly to total crypto market capitalization. Namely, although the price of the coin increased during the week, still, its circulating coins were down by 1.3%, which held BNB`s market cap to almost the same level as it was during the week before. Filecoin continues to keep market attention, through an increase in its market cap by 18.5% within a single week, but, at the same time, it increased its coins in circulation by additional 2.2%. Other altcoins performed on a solid ground during the week, mostly increasing their market cap from 0% up to 10%. Crypto futures market General market optimism is continuing to fuel the crypto futures market. During the previous week both long and short term futures for BTC and ETH gained in prices during the week. BTC short term futures were traded more than 12% higher from the week before, while ETH futures were up by more than 13% on average. As for the long term futures for BTC, the prices have increased by more than 10% w/w, however, they are still holding in inverted mood, as December 2023 ended the week at price $20.905, while December 2024 finished the week at price of $20.695. ETH long term futures were up at the lower pace from the short term ones, adding more than 8% in price on a weekly basis. Also, ETH futures prices continue to move in inverted shape, where December 2023 maturing futures were traded at price $1.531, and December 2024 at $1.497. Inverted futures prices are showing that investors continue to perceive the influence of recession in the US, potentially in the rest of the world, as a main driver of the crypto future prices.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
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Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, January 16 – 22Last week in the news A bit of optimism is back on the financial markets as inflation in the US slows down. Major US indexes finished the week in green. On the other side, the crypto market also benefited from positive news, as Bitcoin reached a level of $21K, and Ether is back to $1.5K. It was a relatively good start of the new year on the financial markets. Long awaited slowdown in inflation figures are finally released, increasing the probability that the FED will slow down with its further rate increases. However, the macro situation continues to be fragile, in which sense, not all investors are still back on the market. As per official data published on Thursday, the US core inflation fell to 5.7% in December, while the inflation rate was down to 6.5% from 7.1% posted previously. Comments from some FED officials were related to the possibility for FED to further increase its interest rates by 25bps, which would be a significant drop in increases from several previous 75 bps. Crypto.com is another company from the crypto industry which announced job cuts by 20% during this year. They have noted the stress around FTX collapse as a reason for such a decision, as it has hurt the trust in the crypto industry. It is another company in line with several others like Coinbase or Houbi who announced job cuts during this year. Ethereum network is again in the spotlight of the market, in anticipation of the next, so called “Shanghai hard fork” which is expected to be released in March this year. The fork is supposed to allow users of the staked ETH to unlock their coins on the blockchain. As per analysts involved in a matter, it is questionable if the new fork will support the price of ETH, as holders might start selling their ETH holdings after they have been released for free use. Cardano developer, Input Output Global (IOG), announced the release of a toolkit which would allow developers to build side chains. In this way, it would be allowed to side-chains to benefit from network security and decentralisation and increase the scalability of the Cardano`s network. The announcement modestly supported ADA, Cardano`s native token, which rose 3% after the announcement. Another hard fork is announced for Bitcoin Cash, which will be released in May this year. This fork should add to the security of the network and allow developers to build decentralised applications directly to token. In an interview with CNBC, the SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, noted that there is possibility for this fund to buy back stake which FTX exchanger has in this fund. However, it will take several months until the transaction could occur, as it will be part of the FTX`s bankruptcy proceedings. Crypto market cap Long awaited optimism is back on the markets. Latest published figures for the US inflation are clearly showing that the inflation in the US took a downtrend. However, FED`s targeted 2% inflation is still on the long stick, in which sense, there is a high possibility that the FED will continue with increase of benchmark interest rates, but at lower levels, i.e. 25bps. This was also commented on by some FED officials during the previous week. It was a signal for the markets that monetary tightening might soon come to an end, and that market has probably bottomed. Still, not all investors are back on the market, considering that there are those with the opinion that the recession is coming to the US and that there is still enough space for the market to reach its bottom. Anyhow, it was the first extremely good week for the crypto market, after a longer period of time, since the total market capitalization was increased by 19% within a single week, adding $147B to total cap. Daily trading volumes were also increased and back to old figures, moving around $153B on a daily basis, compared to $44B a week before. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 23% since the beginning of this year, adding total $175B to market cap. All coins gained during the previous week, supported by the market optimism. Highest contribution to increase of total market cap came from major coins on the market, but few other altcoins had extremely good performance during the week. In nominal terms the highest gainer was Bitcoin, with an increase in market cap of $75B or 23% within a single week. BTC is followed by ETH, who managed to add $32B to its market cap or almost 21%. Third place belongs to BNB, with a surge in the market cap by $6.8B or 16%. Solana is one of the coins which outperformed the majority of other altcoins, and managed to add $3.3B to its cap, and increase it by an incredible 69% on a weekly basis. Among other altcoins, significant performance in relative terms had Cardano, who increased cap by 27%, Polkadot, with a surge of 30% and Maker, with increase of 32% on a weekly basis. As for coins in circulation, the previous week was relatively calm, with both Ripple`s and Stellar`s increase of total circulating coins by 0.3% each. Crypto futures market Optimism from the spot market was evident also in crypto futures. Both short term and long term futures for both BTC and ETH were traded higher by some 17% and 15% respectively. However, these percentages should be taken with reserve, considering that CME market closes on Friday, in which sense, Saturday`s trading on the spot market has not been included in these percentages. Long term BTC futures were traded higher by some 13% , with December 2023 ending Friday`s trading at level of $18.8K, and December next year at level of $18.6K. ETH futures for the same periods were traded up by 14%, with December 2023 ending the trading week at level of $1.4K, and December next year at level of $1.378. Despite the latest market optimism, what is still evident on the futures market is the inverted curve, where futures prices for shorter terms are higher from the ones on the long run. It shows that investors are still not sure regarding the long term prospectus for the crypto market in the long run, especially considering that fears of recession are still quite dominant on financial markets.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, January 9 – 15Last week in the news After a Holiday season, the financial markets started the New Year in a relaxed mode. During the first week of January “old market stories” continued to be in the spotlight of investors. Certainly, inflation is still on the top of the list. The US Dow index surged by 700 points during the first trading week, as investors are expecting for inflation to slow down further which would impact FED to halt monetary tightening. The crypto market remained relatively flat, with Bitcoin ending the week below $17K, and Ether below $1.3K. Inflation was certainly the most popular word during the whole previous year on financial markets, while the second place, on the crypto market, could take the word lay-offs. Both words continue to be in the spotlight of the markets as fear of recession increases. The crypto winter on the crypto market is still on stage. Lay-offs in this industry (as well in many others) continued during the first week of January. Huobi, a Seychelles-based crypto exchanger, announced its decision to cut its labour force globally by 20%. Within the company this move was explained as “structural adjustment” during the bear market. At the same time, Genesis Trading, a part of Digital Currency Group, will cut an additional 30% of its staff, after firing 20% of employees during the last year. It is still unclear where exactly the problem lies with this company, but analysts agree that the main issues for Genesis Trading started after the collapse of the FTX exchanger. On the other hand, crypto exchanger Kraken stated that they will stop the company's operations on Japan`s markets, due to weak market conditions in this country. The FTX scandal as of the end of the last year is still contingent on the market. The US regulators issued a warning for US banks on their exposures with cryptocurrencies. The regulators warned regarding risks like scams, fraud, and contagion risks originating from inter-connections among crypto market participants. Their conclusion is that any holdings of crypto assets on public or decentralised platforms by banks, could not be treated as sound banking practice. Another contingent of the FTX scandal. Silvergate Capital was downgraded by the major US banks and rating agencies. Analysts agree that the strong funds outflow that this institution experienced after exposure of its connections with FTX, would have significant implications on the institution`s profitability in the long run, due to increased costs of liquidity and impairments of technology assets, as well as layoff programs. Bearish market trend for this company is confirmed also by Cathy Wood`s ARK Invest fund, which sold about $5M of Silvergate stocks. However, at the same time Cathy continues to bet on COIN as the fund bought additional $6M of COIN shares. Crypto market cap During the Holiday season, markets were traded in a relatively relaxed mode. There has not been too much volatility, however, daily trading volumes were relatively low, which is usual during this period of the year. The crypto market suffered crypto winter during the previous year and finished it with a total funds outflow of 65% y/y, with total outflow of $1.426B. First week of this year was relatively calm but market managed to increase market cap by 4%, adding modest $27B to its total capitalization. Daily trading volumes continue to be decreased, reaching $44B on a daily basis during the first week of January. Regardless of low trading volumes, the start of this year was positive on the crypto market. Majority of coins gained during the week, both in market value and in circulating coins. Major coins on the market were traded in a relatively mixed manner. Bitcoin ended the first week relatively flat compared to the last week of December, however, Ether managed to gain additional $10B in market cap, which is an increase of 7%. Binance Coin also managed to erase some of the losses from the end of the year before, adding 10% to its market cap or almost $4B. Some of the coin with significant gains in relative terms were Ethereum Classic with a surge of 25%, Litecoin which added almost 19% to its market cap and Filecoin, which was up by 15%. It should be mentioned that Filecoin continued to strongly increase its coins in circulation, adding 4.8% since the end of the last year. Algorand also increased its circulating coins by 1.0%, along with Zcash and Solana, which both gained an additional 0.9% in coins in circulation. Crypto futures market Despite the optimistic new year`s start of the spot crypto market, the crypto futures market continues to be sceptical regarding the future prices of both BTC and ETH. In line with the spot market developments, short term futures for ETH were up by some 7%, while for BTC remained relatively flat. The maturity curve for both coins continues to be inverted, which was a trend started during the previous year. BTC futures maturing as of the end of this year were closed at $16.6K, while those maturing in December 2024 were holding around $16.5K. Situation is the same with ETH futures, which closed the week at $1.220 for maturities as of the end of this year, and at $1.200 for maturities as of the end of the next year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, December 19 -25Last week in the news The pivotal point for financial markets during the previous week were moves from central bankers to fight inflation, where fears of forthcoming recession were shaping week-end investors' confidence. Both EU and US markets were closed in red. The crypto market also ended the week with negative sentiment. Bitcoin is ending the week modestly above $16K, and Ether above $1.1K. Previous week was under the impact of both release of the US inflation data, and December`s FOMC meeting. Positive news for financial markets came on Tuesday, when official data showed a slowdown in US inflation data, with yearly inflation rate of 7.1% in November, down from 7.7% posted previously. This was a certain sign for financial markets that the FED will slow down its further interest rate increases. Wednesday was a FOMC day when members increased further rates by 50bps, however, in a statement after the meeting, FED Chair Powell said a few things which were not welcomed by investors. Most important news is that the US economy is certainly entering into recession, which might last through the year 2023. First half of the week was marked with investor`s optimism, while week-end was in a bit pessimistic mood as FED decreased market expectations on “soft landing” of the economy. During the same week the European, Swiss and UK central banks also increased their reference interest rates. Even after a month of the FTX scandal, the dust over contingencies is still not settling. Previous week, the crypto exchanger Binance was in the news spotlight as one of the first investors in the fallen exchanger FTX. FTX bankruptcy proceedings showed that last year Binance sold its equity possessions in FTX, receiving about $2.1 billion. In an interview with CNBC, the CEO of Binance, Zhao Changpeng, tried to calm down the public, noting that the company's financials are in order, and that there are no more ties with FTX. Negative news triggered clients funds outflows, increasing daily withdrawals to $1.14 billion on Tuesday. At the same time, a spokesperson from Binance said that the company managed to go through a stressful time because they keep clients' funds in custody. The annual report of the Treasury`s Financial Stability Oversight Council has been approved on Friday. Major points from this report are related to conclusion that latest fall of the FTX did not had any significant impact on US financial system. Another major topic was the Council's call for the US Congress to pass a bill by which it will be allowed to US official agencies to set the rules and dive deeper into the whole crypto industry, including the supervision of activities related to the cryptos. At the same time, they acknowledged that stablecoins represent less riskier types of cryptos. The global regulator of banking industry, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, (BCBS) proposed banking rules for the crypto assets, by which it would be allowed for banks to hold up to 2% of capital in the crypto assets and non-fungible tokens, but it was recommended for this figures not to be higher from 1%. The new rules will be applicable starting from January 2025. On the other hand, bankers are commenting that this exposure is too low in order to support any further innovations through distributed ledger technology. Crypto market cap Although the previous week was promising one in expectation of the positive news that the inflation is finally over and that FED's monetary measures might finally ease, news regarding forthcoming recession put investors again into negative sentiment. Namely, in a speech after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell noted FED`s expectations that the unemployment will increase in Y2023 due to recession in the US. At the beginning of the week investors were thrilled on the possibility that the agony called inflation and monetary tightening might finally end, the recession news pushed the investors’ confidence again into the red zone. In addition to negative macroeconomic news, the crypto market continues to be under the influence of potential FTX contingencies. The crypto market also finished the week in red, decreasing its total capitalization by additional $50B, or by 6% on a weekly basis, led by ETH and BNB. Daily trading volumes remained at lower levels, moving above $70B on a daily basis. Investors continue to be on hold. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year dropped further to the level of $1.490B, which is a decrease of 65% on a yearly basis. Although the previous week started in a positive manner, still week –end brought some negative sentiment on the crypto market, decreasing total market cap by 6%. This drop was led by major altcoins, ETH, DOGE and BNB, while BTC managed to remain flat compared to the week before. ETH had another significant drop in market cap by 7% where the coin lost even $11B in value. ETH was followed by BNB, which decreased total capitalization by more than $8B or 18%, after negative news regarding Binance potential exposure toward FTX exchange. DOGE was another major altcoin with a pretty negative weekly performance of minus $2.5B in market cap, or a drop of almost 20% in value. All other altcoins finished the week in red, where the most significant drop in relative terms had Filecoin, with a drop of 30% in value, IOTA was traded down by 19%, ADA also had a drop of 15%. Regardless of a drop in value, Filecoin continued its year’s rally in total coins in circulation, adding more than 2% during the previous week. Crypto futures market It was a pretty bumpy week on the crypto futures market, but regardless of small drop in both BTC and ETH short term futures prices, the futures curve managed to change its slope after several months in its inversion. It points to market expectations on the probability that the crypto market has reached its bottom line and that future periods might bring some moves in a positive direction. Although it is still early to confirm such a statement, considering that there is still quite a small price difference between different futures maturities, it could be perceived as at least some positive market feedback regarding current expectations. In line with the spot market developments, BTC short term futures were traded by more than 2% lower from the week before. ETH short term futures had a higher drop of some 5% on a weekly basis, with the price falling below $1.2K. On the other side, both BTC and ETH longer term futures were traded higher by more than 1% , where BTC futures for the end of year 2023 were still holding above $17K, while ETH futures for the same period traded above $1.2K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, December 12-18Last week in the news Another relatively flat week is behind on the financial markets, while investors are on hold, waiting for the next monetary moves from the FOMC meeting which will be held in a week ahead. The crypto market also traded relatively flat for the third week in a row, with Bitcoin ending the week modestly above $17K, and Ether managing to hold above $1.2K. The dust after the FTX collapse has still not settled on the market. Several US Senate members have raised questions regarding FTX`s connections with small banks in the US. In their letter, the senators referred to Moonstone, a bank based in Washington which had close ties with Alameda Research, where the company has invested $11.5 million. This comes after several similar questions have already been raised by several other senators with respect to FTX`s transactions with the Silvergate Bank. On the other side, CEO of The Block, the crypto media site, Michael McCaffrey resigned during the previous week, after it was discovered that The Block was secretly funded by Alameda Research. During the previous week, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a guideline in which the regulator is requesting from companies to disclose their exposures toward the cryptocurrency market. This also includes disclosure of the exposures toward the bankrupt FTX exchanger, considering that it has been estimated that the company has around 1 million creditors, as news are reporting. The layoffs in the crypto companies continue, with the latest announcement from exchanger Kraken, one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world, that the company is planning to dismiss 1.100 jobs. This is currently about 30% of its labour force. As a reason for such a move, the company is noting “macroeconomic and geopolitical factors''. The ECB Director Urlich Bindseil, published a post on a ECB`s blog, stating that Bitcoin is currently “on the road to irrelevance”. He also expressed the opinion that the latest moves are only “artificially induced last gasp” which would lead the coin toward this road of its irrelevance considering that it doesn’t fit into either role of investment nor for payment. Opposite to the central bankers are investors who still believe that Bitcoin is still to hit its new highs. Last week, the venture capitalist Tim Draper expressed his quite optimistic opinion that Bitcoin might reach the level of $250K by the middle of 2023. This level means that BTC would need to surge by 1.400% within the next few months, which might be perceived as an extremely optimistic scenario. Crypto market cap The crypto market continues to slow down for a third week in a row. Strong impact on such developments have fears over FTX contingency, on one side, and forthcoming FOMC meeting on the other side. In a week ahead, there are two major events for the markets: one is release of US inflation data, after which comes December`s FOMC meeting, right before holiday season in the Western world. Current market expectations for the US inflation rate is 7.3% y/y, lower from the October data of 7.7%. The most important day to watch in a week ahead is December 14th, when FOMC is expected to further increase interest rates by an additional 50bps, as per current market expectations. In case of any deviations from market expectations, the market reaction might be significant. It is also worth mentioning that ECB will also discuss potential further rate increase in a meeting scheduled for December 15th. The week ahead would be a very interesting one when it comes to macro data. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, with incremental change of $3B on a plus side. What is a bit concerning is that daily trading volumes continued to decrease, dropping from the level of $60B a week before, down to $40B during the previous week. This is indication that the market is dried up and that investors are withholding any sort of trading or investments, waiting for a situation to be clearer in the coming period. In case that next week doesn’t bring any significant change, it could be expected that this situation will prolong until the end of this year, considering that the last two weeks of December are always reserved for a holiday season, hence, the markets and investors are mostly inactive. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained flat at level of $1.369B, which is a decrease of 63% on a yearly basis. Crypto currencies were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. Absolute winner of the week was Bitcoin, who added $4B to its market cap, increasing it by 1.3%. Ether performed almost without any change on a weekly basis, as well as other major coins on the market. In a relative sense, the coin with the highest weekly increase in market cap was EOS, who surged by 11%. NEO and DASH also had a good week, with an increase in cap by more than 4%. On a losing side was LINK, which lost 6.7% in value, followed by DOGE, Theta, Polkadot and Algorand, which decreased their market cap by more than 4%. Considering coins in circulation, Filecoin continues to beat records, by adding 1.5% more coins in circulation during the previous week. Crypto futures market In line with incremental changes on the spot market, the crypto futures market performed in the same manner during the previous week. BTC short term futures were almost unchanged compared to a week before, holding quite modestly above $17K. Longer term maturing BTC futures were up by 1.6%, but still ending the week at $17K. ETH short term futures were down by 2.8%, with December this year ending the week at level of $1.250. Longer term futures remained flat during the course of the week, where December 2023 was traded at level of $1.220. Both BTC and ETH futures continue to trade with price inversion. During the previous week the difference in prices between maturities from December this year and December 2023 were further decreased, implying that the market continues to be on hold when it comes to price expectations for both BTC and ETH during the course of the next year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies December 5 – 11Last week in the news Some good news and some bad news related to macro fundamentals, impact the markets to trade in a mixed manner for the second week in a row. On the other side, the crypto market continues to be under pressure due to FTX contingencies. Bitcoin ended the second week above $16K, Ether is still holding above $1.2K. The state of the US economy is still in the spotlight of the financial markets in the US. There had been a lot of news during the previous week related to the high potential of the FED to slow down its further rate increases aimed to halt inflation. Markets continue to price potential 50 bps increase in December. On the other hand, the latest posted job figures show that the US job market is not losing its strength, which might further impact the fight with inflation. Posted figures show that the US nonfarm payrolls increased for 263K in November, more than 200K expected by the market. Jobless rate remained at 3.7% level. At the same time, hourly earnings increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis, or 5.1% compared with the same period last year, which was also above expectations of 4.6%. Economists are expressing their doubts that a still strong labour market might impact FED`s efforts to fight inflation. On the other hand, there are those noting that it will take time until the increased interest rates reflect in the real economy and in the job market. In a speech held during the previous week at the Brookings Institution, FED Chair Powell commented on the current state of the US economy. He noted the possibility for FED to ease further rate increases, but with the possibility that the rates might reach levels higher from previously expected, and stay at these high levels for a longer period. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is continuing to expand its crypto related products, despite current market hesitancy due to crypto winter and collapse of FTX exchange. As it has been announced by the CME, it will team up with the cryptocurrency index provider CF Benchmarks, in order to introduce new real-time indices for AAVE, CRV and SNX. Indices will be published from 19th December, and will not be tradable for the moment. Cryptocurrency financial services firm Galaxy Digital, managed to win an auction and acquire platform GK8 from a bankrupt lender Celsius Network. As noted from Galaxy Digital, the aim of this acquisition is to expand the company's brokerage offering. Crypto market cap Total crypto market capitalization modestly recovered during the previous week, adding $18B or 2% to its total cap. Within the crypto market this might be perceived as an incremental improvement, still, considering general circumstances, it is at least movement in a positive direction. The crypto market is still under influence of FTX collapse, and its potential consequences. This is also reflected in daily trading volumes, which continue to be at their lowest levels since year 2020. For a second week in a row, daily trading volumes were moving around $60B. The market is still on a hold, waiting for dust over FTX to settle. This situation might prolong for some time in the future, until the market confidence is restored. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained flat at level of $1.372B, which is a decrease of 63% on a yearly basis. Modest increase in total crypto market capitalization during the previous week was led by two major coins: BTC and ETH. Bitcoin gained almost $10B in its market cap during the week, which is an increase of 3%, compared to the week before. Ether also had a solid week, managing to increase its cap by additional $7.5B or 5%. It should be noted that DOGE had a nice performance with an increase in value by 12%, adding $1.5B to its market cap. Among altcoins, Zcash increased its market cap by 12%, and is followed by Uniswap, with a gain of 13% on a weekly basis. Other altcoins also had solid performance, with only few who finished the week in red. Previous week, Binance Coin was on a losing track. The coin lost $3B in market value, which is a decrease of 6.5%. However, it should be noted that two weeks ago, BNB was the absolute leader on the market, with a gain of $6B, so last week`s loss continues to be in the positive territory. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues with its strong increase of circulating coins, by adding 1.3% during the previous week. Crypto futures market During the previous week, crypto futures were traded on modestly higher grounds. Still, in line with the spot market, it could be perceived as an incremental change in futures spot prices. Short term BTC futures were traded more than 3% higher compared to the week before. Still, longer term futures were traded without significant changes on a weekly basis, with December 2023 ending the week less than 2% lower, at level of $16.73K. ETH futures had higher increases from BTC futures. Short term ETH futures were traded up by 10% on average, while December 2023 was higher by 4% on a weekly basis, ending at level of $1.2K. What is still highly evident in prices of both BTC and ETH futures is their price inversion. Namely, longer term futures were traded at lower prices from short term ones. This is an ongoing reflection of current market sentiment over the potential value of the coins within the course of the following year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Crypto Total Market Cap. Long-Term | Going Back Above 1.55THere on this chart we have the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market long-term, a duplicate of the Bitcoin chart in many ways... Let's have a look. We are seeing MA200 and EMA300 failing as support. It is the first time ever that TOTAL trades below EMA300. We know for a fact how common it is for any crypto-asset to go below a main/strong support level just to quickly move back above it. In fact, many times the breakdown of a long-term support level signals the end of a bearish trend. Here we see the breach of MA200 which has happened before back in March 2020 and December 2018. Both times this event marked a low that was followed by very strong growth. On the other hand, EMA300 has never been breached in the past and was tested only once in March 2020. This marked the low of that cycle. In 2022, TOTAL tested EMA300 as support in June and July and the level holds. Next again in early November when this important level failed as support. EMA300 stands at 842.146B. We can already see the early recovery signals; A bottom pattern forming, Bullish candles showing up and the strong RSI. Then we have a not so well understood signal with the Ichimoku cloud. The GREEN clouds tend to be pierced DOWN, while the RED clouds tend to be pierced UP. Looking at this signal, we can expect cryptocurrency to behave as it did back in early 2019. It will back above 936.142B in a matter of weeks and mid-term we can even see 1.21T challenged and even beyond 1.55T before the bulls retreat. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by AlanSantana
3
Crypto Market Cap: The Next TOTAL Bull CycleCrypto Market Cap ( TOTAL CRYPTOCAP) works hand in hand with the next GOLD: the one and only king Bitcoin (BTCUSD). In the Bullish Idea I posted for BTC, I was saying that BTCUSD will start flying to $250K and + , once the Supply Zone at $10K is met. Bitcoin Weekly: TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) has the same pattern. So, no matter how many coins and tokens are out there, there is only one king: BTC! In case you're wondering, TOTAL2 and TOTAL2 are moving the same. All eyes on Bitcoin! I am bullish on the Crypto Market, and have good reasons. When the :poop: will hit the fan with the Fiat Markets, the Crypto Revolution will start. Crypto Market Cap ( TOTAL ) Technical Analysis: * Elliott Wave A-B-C Pattern * Harmonic Pattern: Bullish Cypher * Ending Diagonal * Bullish Divergence * Fibonacci Retracement: 88.6% * Demand Zone Good luck my fellow HODLer! Richard, the Wave Jedi
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by Lionheart-EWA
9
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies Nov 28 – Dec 4Last week in the news Markets were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, in expectations of US jobs figures which will be posted in the week ahead. On the other side, the crypto market was in the same mood, but due to expectations on news related to the contingency of FTX collapse. Bitcoin ended the second week above $16K, while Ether was traded flat at levels above $1.2K. The price fragility remains under pressure from the fundamental news. FED's Minutes of the meeting from the latest FOMC meeting revealed that the majority of the voting members were on a side that FED should slow down with the level of rate increases. At this moment, markets are expecting that FED will increase rates further but for 50 bps in December, which is a slowdown from previous 75 bps. The news was welcomed on the markets, as both equity and the crypto market reacted positively. The FTX collapse remains the main topic in the news and the crypto market for the second week in a row. Fragility of prices remains under huge influence of news related to the contingency of the FTX collapse. Voyager Digital, which filed for bankruptcy in July this year, entered into new problems, as the American unit of FTX was supposed to take over the troubled company. At this moment Binance confirmed, with few other crypto firms, that it is preparing to take over Voyager Digital. Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, commented that Binance introduced a fund of total $1 billion aimed to support companies in trouble in the crypto industry. CNBC is reporting that several Democratic lawmakers in the US requested from the Senate Banking Committee to ask the federal regulators to oversee crypto trading activities of the bank SoFi. The rationale for such an urge is their opinion that SoFi represents a threat to investors. Their fears are increased considering a significant meltdown in the crypto industry during this year and increased number of companies in default. On the other hand, SoFi bank reacted to these statements, noting that it is fully compliant with the regulation currently in place in both their banking and crypto units. After Bahama`s authorities seized assets of the failed FTX, news is reporting that Turkey's authorities did the same for the FTX unit in this country. As it has been reported, the failed exchanger is currently under investigation in Turkey for “antecedent crimes and laundering”. Ardana (DANA), a DeFi project based on blockchain Cardano was halted, as it has been officially stated on Twitter by the company. The company stated that the project has been halted considering issues with funding and “project timeline uncertainty”. Crypto market cap The total crypto market capitalization was relatively flat during the previous week, with quite shy recovery of 1%, adding $4B to its market cap. The modest positive impact comes from released minutes of the FOMC meeting, where it has been exposed that the majority of FOMC voting members expressed the opinion that the FED should slow down in the future period with its increases of interest rates. It takes time until the monetary measures reflect into the real economy, while current levels of interest rates are already giving results in halted inflation levels. Inflation is still high, but further strong increases in the FED's rate, might start to seriously damage the US economy, which would not serve to benefit the monetary goals of a stable economy. This was positive signal for markets, however, concerns over contingent of the FTX collapse are still point of high risk for the crypto market. In this sense, daily trading volumes continue to be low and were further decreased during the previous week, from $66B down to $59B on a daily basis. Evidently, investors are still on hold. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained flat at level of $1.390B, which is a decrease of 64% on a yearly basis. The absolute leader of the crypto market during the previous week was Binance Coin, with its significant recovery of 14%, adding $6B to its total market capitalization. Certainly, the coin was supported by the fundamentals around Binance`s potential takeover of Voyager Digital. On the other hand, BTC performed relatively flat, losing $3B or 1% in value. ETH`s price was flat without any significant change on a weekly level. In relative terms, altcoins with good weekly performance were Litecoin and LINK, which managed to increase its market cap by 20%, both. In this group of altcoins also belongs DASH, with an increase of 18%, and Solana, with a surge in price of 11% on a weekly basis. On the opposite side, one of the highest weekly losers were Algorand, with an decrease in market cap by 18% and Uniswap with a drop of 6%. As for coins in circulation, a significant increase had LINK of 3.3% compared to the previous week, Filecoin, which added 1.1% to coins in circulation, while Tether had a drop of 0.9%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was traded flat during the previous week. Investors are still on hold, which shows official data. The number of contracts significantly decreased for the second consecutive week, where asset managers account for 31% of long positions on CME, compared to 43% a week before. Asset managers are also reducing their long positions in BTC. During the previous week the prices of BTC futures remained flat compared to the week before, where futures maturing as of the end of this year are still holding at $16.2K, while December 2023 was modestly down to the level of round $17K. As for ETH futures, they continue to drop in prices, between 2% and 3% previous week, with December this year still holding above $1.1K, while December 2023 was down by additional 2%, ending the week slightly above $1.1K. Futures prices for both coins continue to be traded with a small price range for all maturities, implying that investors are still on hold when it comes to the value of coins within the course of the next year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: November 21 – 27Last week in the news Markets were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. First part of the week was much more positive from the week-end, when markets closed lower. Analysts are stressing that it was a market readjustment based on the latest comments from FED officials on CPI expectations. The crypto market continues to be under the influence of FTX collapse and also had a mixed week. Major coins traded lower. BTC is finishing the week modestly above $16K, ETH is still holding above $1.2K. The scandal over the crypto exchanger FTX continues to be the main topic in the news. Currently contingent spread is the main concern of investors on the market. It could not be estimated exact impact, considering that many large names on the market had exposure toward FTX. Shares of the crypto bank Silvergate Capital, dropped sharply during the week, due to market speculation that the bank could be exposed to FTX. The CEO of Silvergate bank tried to assure investors that the bank has sufficient liquidity, but it was without effect. Large pension fund in Canada, Ontario Teachers, announced that it will write off $95 million worth of investment in FTX. Price of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares were down by 43% relative to the underlying BTC price, after the announcement of its owner, Grayscale Investment, that they would halt customer withdrawals in case that similar situation occurs as with FTX. On the other hand, Cathy Wood`s ARK Investment was not concerned much about such statements, since the fund purchased additional 315.000 shares of GBTC. In an interview with CNBC, the General Counsel of Ripple, Stuart Alderoty commented on the company's expansion outside of the US, noting that the majority of its income is now originating from outside the US. For a few years now Ripple has been in legal dispute with SEC defending the stand that XRP is not a security. In the meantime, the company expanded its operations outside the US, currently seeking a virtual asset service provider licence from Ireland authority. With this licence, Ripple is hoping to pass its activities to the rest of Europe. The CEO of Input Output Global, Charles Hoskinson, announced during the previous week that the company is planning to release a new blockchain, named Midnight, with a token called Dust. IOG is a company behind Cardano, while the Midnight blockchain is supposed to deliver zero-knowledge-proof smart contracts. During the week, president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, commented on the possibility for the ECB to continue to raise interest rates, even if such moves would push the EU economy into recession and slow down economic activity. Economists are noting that the current 1.5% level is neutral. This comment comes after the inflation in the EU zone is hitting historical heights at 10.6% y/y with its further estimated growth during winter months. Since this is far away from 2% ECB`s targeted level, there are not many other options for ECB, except to hike further interest rates in order to reduce its balance sheet. Crypto market cap After a shocking week of the FTX collapse, which led to a significant drop in prices of all digital assets, markets were trying to stabilise around current prices. However, there is still great fear of investors regarding the contingent effect of FTX on other major players on the market, which is the main reason why investors are still reluctant to enter into positions and push the market to previous levels. Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the previous week by an additional $20B or 3%, leading to total crypto market capitalization drop of little less than 25% within a period of two weeks. The drop was again led by the major coins on the market. At the same time, daily trading volumes significantly decreased, down to the level of $66B on a daily basis, from $152B traded during previous week. Evidently, the market is waiting for the dust of FTX collapse to settle down, in order to choose the trading side. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year was further decreased to the level of $1.394B, which is a drop of 64% on a yearly basis. Major coins on the market were leading the last week`s drop, while the performance of altcoins was in a more optimistic manner. BTC, ETH and BNB were participating with 64% in the total market cap drop of $20B. ETH for one more time was leading the market with a drop in cap of $7.2B, which is a decrease of almost 5%. BTC was following, with a drop in cap of $4B or 1.2% on a weekly basis. BNB was down by 3.5% or $1.6B. It was also interesting to see that Tether lost a significant amount of $1.5B or 2.2%, for the first time after the Terra collapse. In relative terms, the highest losers of the week were Solana, with a drop in market cap of 14%, followed by DOGE, who decreased its market cap by 7.2%. Among coins which managed to finish the week in green territory were Litecoin, with an increase in market cap of 6%, Monero, which surged by 5.6% and Algorand with an increase of 5.5%. Quite positive developments were with EOS, a coin which increased its cap by 7.8% and also increased its coins in circulation by additional 7% w/w. Filecoin continues to increase its circulating coins, adding 1.4% during the previous week. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market continued to trade lower during the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded modestly higher by some 2% on average, still holding modestly above $16K. Futures with maturity in December this year finished the week at level of $16.2K. Still, longer term futures lost between 7% and 10%, with closing price for December 2023 at $17.1K, lower from previous week`s close at $18.1K. Negative expectations were also dominant for ETH futures. Short term maturities for ETH were closed by some 3% lower, dropping below $1.2K. Much higher drop was with longer term futures of some 10%, with December 2023 finishing the week at $1.1K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: November 14 – 20Last week in the news Last week`s downturn on the crypto market was under strong influence of negative developments with FTX cryptocurrency exchange, which filed for bankruptcy as of the end of the week. Bitcoin finished the week above $16K, while Ether manages to hold above $1.250 support. The dust about FTX cryptocurrency exchange began at the beginning of the previous week, with news that Binance exchange is considering to take over the FTX exchange, which was struggling with liquidity for some time. After Binance officially announced that the company does not have intention to buy the FTX, the clients of FTX started withdrawing funds pushing the exchanger into significant problems. Within a few days, one of the largest exchangers on the market, with a valuation of $32 billion, filed for bankruptcy. Voluntary proceedings currently include approximately 130 affiliated companies. Market reaction was swift and negative as nobody can tell with certainty all the potential future effects of FTX`s bankruptcy. As CNBC is reporting, the FTX has more than 100.000 creditors, and liabilities above $10 billion. While FTX clients and creditors are concerned whether they will be able to withdraw their funds any time soon, the regulators are voicing a need for the crypto market regulation. The JPMorgan research team noted last week in a letter to clients, a significant increase in deleveraging of the crypto market, caused by the collapse of the FTX exchange. They are implying a high probability of the cascade of the margin calls, similar to the one already occurred with the collapse of Terra. In this sense, the Bank is noting probable BTC bottoming around $15K, with some probability for $13K to be reached. Cathie Wood continues to be optimistic about the crypto market in the long run. Her company, ARK Investment ETF, used the current market downturn to increase the number of shares of Coinbase, by purchasing additional 400.000 shares. At the same time, Coinbase stated that it has only small exposure toward the FTX in terms of operating deposit. Equity markets in the US performed in green during the previous week, after the official US inflation figures were published. The inflation reached 7,7% on a yearly basis, which was lower from the forecasted 8%. Figures are showing that FED's rate increases during the previous period are finally reflecting in the economy, and slowing the inflation. This has increased investors' confidence that the FED might start easing further measures to cope inflation, including slowdown in future rate increases. Crypto market cap For one more time the crypto market exposed its worst weakens, which is called liquidity. The fragility of the market this time was triggered by the bankruptcy of one of the largest crypto exchanger FTX. When the news hit the market, significant number of its clients were trying to withdraw funds, bringing FTX further to the down side. The spiral then continued to the point where FTX needed to halt its operations, further worsening the clients sentiment. As FTX is a large company with significant relations with other entities within the crypto ecosystem, the current panic among crypto participants is caused by lack of information if FTX`s collapse would impact the downturn of any other crypto company or exchanger. To be on a safe side – traders and investors are closing their positions. In addition, there is significant leverage on the crypto market, hence, margin calls will be the ones which will most certainly push the prices more to the downside. Total crypto market capitalization was down by 20% on a weekly basis, where more than $200B was wiped out. Major coins on the market, BTC, ETH and BNB participated with 69% in total drop. Daily trading volumes remained on a relatively same level as week before, moving around $152B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year widened to the level of $2.182B, which is a decrease of 63% on a yearly basis. There is no coin on the crypto market that finished the week in green. The highest losers in absolute terms were the major coins on the market. BTC`s total market cap was down by more than 20% on a weekly basis, decreasing its cap by almost $85B. BTC was followed by ETH, with a drop of 22% or $44B. Third place belongs to BNB, with a decrease in market cap by almost $11B or 19%. Solana was another coin with significant drop of $7B or almost 57% within a single week. XRP had a drop of more than $6B, which is a decrease of 26%. DOGE also lost significant amount of funds of almost $5B, bringing a decrease to 28%. All other altcoins lost between 10% up to 30% in value within a single week. Considering coins in circulation, Tether lost some 2.8% , while Solana and Filecoin increased their circulating coins by 0.9% both. Crypto futures market Considering significant negative news during the previous week, the crypto futures market could not perform better from the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded significantly lower from the week before, with higher drop within shorter maturities. BTC short term futures were traded some 25% lower during the week, with December this year ending the week at level of $15.6K. Longer term futures were traded down by some 12%, where December 2023 dropped below $20K and ended the week around $18.6K. ETH short term futures were also down by 25% on average, same as BTC, where the price for December this year was closed modestly above $1.2K. On the other side, longer term ETH futures had higher drop from BTC`s, bringing down prices by some 15% on average. There has been a significant drop in prices for December 2023, where these futures ended the week holding at $1.3K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Cryptos are here to stay- Don't follow the price but follow the innovation. - in 2018 Crypto market reached $750 Billions, in 2020 it reached $3 Trillions. - of course cryptos are still nothing if u compare markets with the actual netted value of derivatives. $600 Trillions. - if u followed some recent news about IRS : - The Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act signals the hiring of 87,000 IRS agents and the bill specifically calls out crypto assets. - $80 Billion of funding is allocated to the IRS budget over the next 10 years, signifying a 75% increase on a yearly basis. So are you thinking govs will hire more agents to tax a dying system. think about it. - According to Fibo the next bullrun will lead Crypto Markets around $10 Trillions. - Be ready for it but be ready also for taxes and regulations. Feel free to comments! Happy Tr4Ding !
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by thecryer
3
Even the Crypto Market Cap formed a Head and ShouldersIn my opinion the crypto bubble is going to really burst soon! I used to trade crypto but ultimately went to FX due to it being a more stable system. I was getting sick of crypto exchanges getting hacked, stealing peoples money and other numerous problems that went a long with the cryptoverse. Anyone could open a crypto exchange which in itself causes a lot of problems if they don't have any basic knowledge of economic systems. I used to trade on the New Zealand exchange (forgot the name) and for some reason I just didn't trust holding my crypto with them so i took it out and not even 2 weeks later they claimed they got hacked. A ton of people lost millions of dollars in the process so for me I personally love regulated exchanges (FX) because of this!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by JasonLeighton
BTC: Bounces Face Formidable ResistancePrimary Chart: Daily Logarithmic Chart Showing Anchored VWAPs, 34-Day EMA, Trendline Previously, SquishTrade discussed why BTC's downtrend cannot reverse given that sellers remain in control as defined by the volume-weighted average price starting at the all-time high. That discussion is contained in the post linked below. Supplementary Chart A Some may respond that any downtrend cannot reverse if sellers remain in control, so why state the obvious? Trends end via a process. A downtrend requires a bottoming process and an uptrend requires a topping process. So for a downtrend to reverse, it remains important to see buyers starting to take control on different time frames. For example, in a downtrend, buyers may often take control temporarily on smaller degrees of trend during a bear rally—such as the bear rally in BTC from June to mid-August 2022—only to realize that sellers remain firmly in control on a larger degree of trend (such as the primary trend). When sellers remain in control on larger degrees of trend, then buyers will inevitably lose control eventually on the lesser time frames when bear rallies end. The Primary Chart shows how BTC's price remains well under the VWAP representing the primary trend (red) anchored to the all-time high, as well as the down trendline covering the same period. But other VWAPs are also looming overhead and sloping downward including the VWAPs anchored to the March 28 swing high (gold), the June 18 low (black), and the September 21 low (green). BTC has chopped within a tight trading range since mid-September 2022. This appears to be consolidation, a typical occurrence after powerful and sharp trend moves. Markets and instruments that have trended strongly in a given direction need time to digest that move. Chop occurs, trapping both sides of the market, frustrating bears and bulls alike with persistent moves in both directions that quickly fail and reverse. Over the summer since the June 2022 lows, BTC has chopped and consolidated as shown in the chart below dated from early October 2022. Notice the abundance of failed breakouts and breakdowns around that key $19,246 level. Supplementary Chart B Note that this choppy consolidation range has continued despite equity indices falling precipitously in September and October 2022 to new YTD lows. After tracking (or correlating) to some extent with major equity indices like the Nasdaq 100 this year, BTC's price has remained relatively sideways while indices have continued to fall into mid-October. Now that equity indices are rallying, BTC still remains stuck in the same range, though this could change at any time. Below is a chart of BTC's trading range as of October 21, 2022—notice how BTC has chopped very tightly for around the .786 retracement of its summer rally. This chop has lasted since mid-September 2022. Supplementary Chart C Taking a somewhat broader perspective, the chop has lasted since June 18, 2022, lows. The Primary Chart shows the major five-month support and resistance levels as blue rectangles. Price has been unable to leave this zone since the YTD lows. The downtrend line on a logarithmic chart has held as resistance since the all-time high November 10, 2021. Even the shorter-term downward trendline from May 2022 has been unbroken as resistance. On larger time frames, therefore, the picture remains quite negative for BTC. And even on lesser time frames, BTC's price has remained relatively week, unable to stay above the VWAPs from the June and September 2022 lows. One need not look only at the technical evidence from BTC's chart to find obstacles to a major trend reversal in the near future. Additional hurdles stand in the way of BTC reversing its trend in the near future (though bear rallies are not precluded), which include the following: 1. A meteoric rise in interest rates this year that is unlikely to stop pressuring risk assets any time soon. SquishTrade will reference the 10-year yield from the US as a reference for rates in general, but many interest rate charts in other countries look similar. The sharp upward trendline in rates (TNX charts below) from early August 2022 to present date explains in part the selling pressure seen broadly in equity indices around the world. This upward trendline has not been broken to the downside yet. Supplementary Chart D.1 Even if interest rates need time to consolidate and pullback to digest this massive move, the larger term picture suggests the trend may be upward for the longer term. Consider the chart below, published with apologies for the unpleasant appearance and implications. It shows a very long-term breakout in yields above a 40-year downtrend. This appears significant. Though a retest of the trendline could occur, the longer-term implications are that rates will be higher for longer, a refrain repeated by the central bank in the US and elsewhere in recent months. Supplementary Chart D.2 The next chart shows that a corrective pullback in yields could occur in the near term based on momentum divergences and relative weakening despite higher highs in the rate. The %B indicator shows that price is piercing the upper band (set at two standard deviations from the mean) less deeply, showing that higher highs in price are actually relatively weaker and lower highs from a standard-deviation viewpoint. Supplementary Chart D.3 Finally, given the strength in momentum on a monthly basis, yields are very likely to continue to remain strong in the coming months even if a corrective pullback occurs. Momentum hit a 40-year high on RSI (monthly chart below): Supplementary Chart D.4 2. Inversion of the yield curve, which has some predictive power in forecasting times of slowing economic growth and even recessionary periods. The chart below shows the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year yield, which remains below zero, indicating that the 2-year has remained persistently above the 10-year, despite its significantly shorter duration. This presents a departure from the normal relationship between these two yields, and in bond-market parlance, is called an inversion. This inversion has persisted for about 4 months since July 5, 2022, though there was also a brief inversion in April 2022. Supplementary Chart E The yield curve will tend to tell the market when the central banks may be ready to pivot. The central banks will not pivot because market participants think the pivot is nigh when markets are severely oversold. As of October 2022, the yield curve has remained inverted for quite some time. The inversion has deepened during the summer months, but now the inversion is simply persisting with the spread percentage chopping up and down and ultimately moving sideways on the chart shown above. 3. Crypto market cap just broke below a long-term trendline. While trendlines can be messy and require adjustment, a break of a longer-term trendline like this does not bode well for crypto in general. Perhaps this is just a whipsaw break, and time will tell. And perhaps BTC will be the relative winner, as some have argued, despite crypto overall continuing to decline. SquishTrade will not make such a prediction but remain a follower of what the charts are saying. When BTC's charts begin showing structural change and a primary trend reversal, and rates begin declining at the larger degrees of trend, the conversation can certainly shift to a more positive one for this asset. Supplementary Chart F ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
20