Cryptomarketcap
BTC DOMINANCE Close to a bullish break-outWe see a lot of alts posting impressive gains lately. How long can this last? Based on this pattern here, Bitcoin's dominance is close to finding a support and around the start of Q3, should start rising. Maybe that will kickstart the start of the new parabolic Bull Run for the whole market.
What do you think?
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Previous studies on alt market cap:
Material Decline Bitcoin Dominance Suggests “Alt Season”Happy Wednesday. Sometimes it’s good to take a few days away from things for a minute. I hope everyone in Canada and the US had a good summer holiday season. Thankfully, Rocky Mountain National Park is close by.
The recent moves by Bitcoin and the failure to fully exhaust cause on moves in either direction (accumulative or distributive) has been confusing to watch as of late, so I decided to take a step back and get a more macro look at the market to get a sense of the bigger picture and refine my investing/trading thesis a bit.
Declining Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Dominance as a percent of Total Market Capitalization has declined from a high of 72.79 percent as of September 5, 2019 to 65.43 percent as of July 5, 2020. Yet since May 7, 2020, Bitcoin Dominance has shed 3.49 percent from 69.82 percent as of May 7, 2020 to 65.43 percent as of July 5, 2020.
The declining Bitcoin Dominance and recent market activity would suggest “Altcoin Season” is currently in play. During the ICO heyday on 2017, Bitcoin Dominance fell from 95.79 percent on January 1, 2017 to a low of 36.62 percent on January 13, 2018 – just over one full year. The current trend suggests “Altcoin Season” started September 2019 and, if the prior trend is any indicator, should peak around September 2020, and Bitcoin Dominance should appreciate.
Declining Total Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization
The Total Market Capitalization for the entirety of the crypto marketplace (as calculated by Tradingview) has steadily declined 42.94 percent from a high of $459.12 Billion as of February 18, 2018, to $261.959 Billion as of July 5, 2020. Yet since April 2020, volume across the marketplace has exploded to new all-time highs.
Within just the past 38 days, total Market Capitalization for the entirety of the crypto marketplace has declined 6.8 percent from a $280.392 Billion on June 1, 2020 to $261.959 Billion as of July 5, 2020 and volume has steadily pulled back from the recent record highs, before Market Capitalization started to revert back to the downward trend line.
Since January 1, 2018, the crypto marketplace had approximately 1,588 Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) which have either completed or are currently underway according to ICOdata.io and ICOmarks. This is effectively flooding the crypto marketplace with: material quantities of pre-mined tokens from these new ICOs, material quantities of new tokens from ongoing mining activity associated with new blockchain projects, and material quantities of new tokens from ongoing mining activity associated with existing blockchain projects (including Bitcoin).
Logically, one would expect Market Capitalization to increase if the volume spike came from fresh sources of capital entering the cryptocurrency marketplace to purchase utility tokens and digital currencies. More fiat entering the market (materially higher than is exiting), chasing the circulating supply of tokens should translate into Higher perceived value/higher prices, and by extension, higher Market Capitalization values. However, the long-term trend since September 2019 does not reflect this conclusion.
Moreover, the Average Transaction Ratio (14 Day) shows Market Capitalization volatility has declined from $66.762 Billion as of February 18, 2018 to $10.096 Billion as of July 5, 2020, and within the past 35 days, from $16.77 Billion to $10.096 Billion. It seems to suggest market volatility is trending downward at a fairly sharp rate, and average transaction value is dropping as well. The 30 Day Average Estimated Transaction Value in USD (All Time) on Blockchain.com appears to confirm this hypothesis, showing transaction value peaked in 2018 at $3.855 Billion January 7, 2018, and has been compressing as it oscillates between a network high of $1.72 Billion and a network low of $897.85 Million.
Summary/My Trade Plan
The trend with Bitcoin Dominance suggests at a macro level the Market Capitalization is flowing away from Bitcoin into Altcoins at an accelerating rate towards a peak. It appears that “Altcoin Season” peak should hit somewhere in September of the current year, so trading bias should shift towards Altcoins and away from Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The current trend with Total Market Capitalization is something of noteworthy concern. I will be watching this trend quite closely to see if a material break above the trendline occurs, which would suggest inflow of fresh capital in the marketplace, which should cause both price and Market Capitalization increase.
Declining Market Cap and declining Bitcoin Dominance seem to suggest a bearish bias should exist for Bitcoin over the near term (at a macro level) – possibly through the summer (September 2020).
Should Market Capitalization materially break above the current trendline, it would suggest a bullish bias towards both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as both are the primary gateways for capital to enter the marketplace.
Should Market Capitalization continue to decline along or beneath the established trendline, I would anticipate market cap to flee away from Altcoins and consolidate within Bitcoin and Ethereum or flee from the market.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
Weekly Weakness For Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Dominance has failed to find support above the long-term downtrend resistance, and the current weekly candle is also below long-term upwards trendline support, which can only mean one thing.
A weekly candle close at about current levels or lower indicates a 4.5% drop on bitcoin dominance coming soon.
Do Cryptos have something to learn from Nasdaq?Have you looked at the Crypto Total Market Cap through the lens of stock market like Nasdaq? Why pick Nasdaq for this particular comparison? Simple. The stronget tech index of the world is the perfect fit for the digital currency market
** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
For the purpose of this study, the Crypto Market Cap is illustrated on the 1W chart while the Nasdaq on the 1M chart. It makes sense to do so as cryptocurrency is a much 'younger' market and as it is smaller than Nasdaq, the pace is much faster than that of a traditional stock index.
** Similarities of the Crypto Market Cap and Nasdaq **
- Both have started off with a very strong parabolic rally based on euphoria of a robust future position. The MA20 supported this parabola.
- One the MA20 broke, both started a sharp sell-off based on panic. This was fueled by the simple fact that the masses of investors who bought at the top were left hanging selling lower and lower in loss as the sell-off extended.
- An MA20/50 Bearish Cross was formed on both that led to the Cycle Bottom.
- The Cycle Bottom was made on the MA200.
- The MA200 supported a mini rally forming an MA20/50 Bullish Cross halfway.
- This mini rally made a top on the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and based on disbelief it pulled back again.
- An MA20/50 Bearish cross was formed which led to a second MA200 touch but was a Higher Low (Higher from the Cycle Bottom).
Nasdaq then formed a new MA20/50 Bullish Cross and started a new Bull Phase. The Crypto Total Market Cap is in the process of completing this MA20/50 Bullish Cross. Does this mean that a new Bull Phase will be initiated? What do you think? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Bitcoin Dominance Losing Steam, Again?
Bitcoin Dominance made a strong recovery in recent weeks, up to it's key resistance trendline.
The weekly chart shows BTC is making a test of that trendline to squash alt coins back into a little corner of the crypto pie.
But on the daily and 12 hour charts it appears the alts are fighting for a strong comeback.
IF this week ends with bitcoin losing about 2.5% market dominance, THEN we may see it's test of the trendline rejected and the start of a major new bull run for the alts.
Bitcoin Dominance At A Cross-RoadsBitcoin is on a strong rally right now, perhaps due to the excitement of the halving event next week. We are watching the long-term trendline of bitcoin dominance stretching back to the Ethereum ICO mania of 2017. A break above that resistance would suggest bitcoin taking a stronger position than the rest of the crypto market. Perhaps bitcoin maximalists will cause a spike but prices could return back to that trendline. A drop back below could lead to a rapid decline in bitcoin dominance. One thing is for sure, alt coin adoption is going from strength to strength. What's your current best guess? Will bitcoin's rally relative to the alt coins get stopped by the resistance trendline above? Will bitcoin traders capitulate and pour profits and point algos towards the alts? Second half of 2020 is gearing up to be epic. Follow SparksterSignals and visit our platform for historical backtesting. We'll update as signals appear.
Crypto Total MarketCapCT MarketCap ; seems to broken on a short scale and STAGE I & STAGE II the resemblance is remarkable, it seems time of mobility for Alts .. Break a leg!
ETCUSD Resistance rejection. Buy the pull back.Ethereum Classic has made an impressive run after bouncing on its Support, beating most of the other cryptocurrencies. Eventually it got rejected on the Resistance
Levels to watch:
- The 9.860 Resistance. Only the wick of the January 16 candle managed to break it but didn't close above it (still rejected on the higher Resistance). All candles have closed below that level.
- The 11.885 higher Resistance that rejected the wick of the January 16 candle.
- The 5.070 level which has been a pivot since March 2019 (acting both as Support and Resistance in times).
- Golden Cross emerging right above the 5.070, which may act as a Support this time.
Projection:
- Pull back near the 5.070 which acts as a Support and a Golden Cross that accumulates buyers back to the 9.860 Resistance.
TOTAL - BULL MARKET CORRECTIONIt was only a pullback and curler man was saying we were dead. That is when I knew we were at bottom and I bought. I had some low ball bids for a thick, but now that they didn't fill on the correction it tells me this market has way too much attention and the Rothschilds and The Oracle of Omaha are loading the F#@K up!
Not financial advice. Will personally be buying all month.
- Matt Doggy Dog from Cali'
ALT MCAP FALLING WEDGE!ALT MCAP seems to be in a falling wedge pattern,which is bullish.
Alt season or I would rather say mini Alt season is expected if it successfully breaks out upwards.
for it to breakout upwards , BTC has to consolidate at some point with a significant decrease in BTC dominance.
Crypto Market Cap: Understanding the market indecision The crypto-market was building another bearish break-out level with the head and shoulders' pattern till 28th august.
Post that it built a bullish momentum as alts and Bitcoin started to gain momentum. However, currently, it is testing the break-out of that level. The RSI has also turned steeply.
Contrary to popular belief, it feels like the bearish momentum will take on again for a while.
Crypto market is prepared to raise again!As you can see from the graph resistance managed to hold for 3 times already!
The last dip has been much stronger than the previous ones so it needed more consolidation than the previous ones also.
Seems the time has come for the market to challenge upper triangle resistance first and then even previous highs.
At the moment we bounced from strong volume levels and stoped for a while on the next ones.
MA100 had a role of support before it got broken and now plays the role of resistance also. This could easily be a deceptive false break down from it.
When all these levels (that are now nearly at the same point) get broken, we can easily reach the triangle boundary.
We might have some retesting but that should not stop the run.
We have strong convergences and bullish crosses on indicators.
When RSI passes 50, players on the market will realize we are probably not going to lower levels as suggested by many.
Confidence will come in and the snowball effect could start again. This time altcoins (not just BTC) should bring a significant rise in the Crypto Market Cap.
Check related ideas in the link below to get to know why we are 90% sure this scenario will happen.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Remember to trade safely!
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Great tool for predicting bubble/hype tops!What is the difference between bubble and hype?
Hypes are usually local tops inside the greater bubble.
As we said before there is a 90% chance we already started the next bubble.
For now, we had a hype that most probably finished at the 5th Elliot wave.
As you can see previous tops and dips can greatly predict where the next tops will be!
1.618 Fibonacci level is the key and when combined with Fibonacci levels from other extensions you get to know where the strong resistance is.
First, we get to extend to 3.618 and then to one level lower (2.618) from the previous price movement. Both are aligned with previous 1.618 Fibonacci extensions.
Hope with this will mean less FOMO and FUD when trading.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Remember to trade safely!
If you want to thank us you can hit like and leave a comment. Thank you for your support.
CRYPTO SPACE MARKETCAPBTC could start losing % marketshare to alts, this may be the area of most pain for alts. If this is so we can expect a sharp reversal soon. Not all alts but big caps first, then mid and small caps last for the most impact. I see BTC marketcap under 50% and close to 40% in the near future, since marketshare has to flow somewhere it will be alts with best and working projects.
Chart is bullish in $ terms for both BTC and ALTS. Charts are more bullish in ALT/BTC ratio.
Either way in next 12 months we should see at least 5x bigger overall marketcap which will make crypto space well above 1T marketcap.
holly capAll in one look. accurate ,truthful , loyal, all for YOU who have enough patience and believe your way.
TOTAL CRYPTO MARKETCAPtrying to KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) and short, the chart is on a 4 hour, but the the 50 SMA correlates with the 50 SMA on the daily, thinking we will have a spike up to the fib line then a retracement back to the 50 SMA, bull market is in. gonna be a good year I believe, go long but always be cautious about pull backs. congrats to all the HODLERS!
BULL FLAG ON MARKET CAP BREAKOUT CONFIRMEDHEY GUYS
Bull flag breakout just happened on 3rd of May 2019. We should see more up-move.
first BTC should jump then sideways and ALT parties should start within few days.
Not a trading advice just my thoughts on crypto market overall situation.
Always DYOR.
Cheers.
MM67TRADER TEAM
Cryptocurrency Marketcap Breakout Short Term ThoughtsLooks like it will be going for a retest of the high we set yesterday
CRYPTOMARKETCAP - LOOKS VERY VERY INTERESTING - CryptoManiac101CRYPTOMARKETCAP / USD TA
This looks very interesting, doesn't it. We have a nice semi bullish pattern with possible golden cross (unconfirmed) which is currently following our parabolic curve.
Will this be the start of the next bull run?
Could be
What's our timeframe?
We have until March 27 for Parabolic Curve to either validate or invalidate.
We have until late May for pattern completion unless we break up or down before that time. Most patterns do breakout around 70% into it which would give us approximate date of April 10 (give or take another week)
Invest smart!
