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MARKETS week ahead: February 12 – 18Last week in the news The S&P 500 continued with gains for the fifth straight week in a row, surpassing the 5.000 level. Investors continue to be optimistic regarding the performance of the US economy and expectations on the forthcoming rate cuts. This week, Bitcoin was also in a positive territory, increasing its value by 10%, and reaching shortly the $ 48K level. Treasury yields remained relatively stable during the week. Gold shortly reached $2.050, however, ended the week lower following strengthening of the US Dollar. Previous week was relatively calm when fundamentals are in question, but with ongoing positive sentiment which impacts developments on financial markets. The released figure for the US inflation in December, as published by the Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics, reached 0.2%, lower from previously reported 0.3%. This represents another sign that inflation is clearly on the path of its return toward the 2% target in the coming period, however, Treasury yields did not react much to this news. The 10Y Treasury benchmark continued to move above the 4%. The analysts are noting market concerns that there might be fewer rate cuts during the course of this year, as the Fed is taking the precautionary stance of not cutting too soon. On the other side, within the week ahead, the US January inflation data will be published, on which the market is more focused on. As per news reports, CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, is getting ready to address the problem of supply and demand of chips for AI. The Wall Street Journal published the information that Sam Altman would need between $5 and $7 trillion for such a project, but the information has not been officially confirmed by the OpenAI. Instead, there is only a call from Sam Altman on the social network X (ex Twitter) for more infrastructure around the AI. He noted that “building massive-scale AI infrastructure, and a resilient supply chain, is crucial to economic competitiveness”. BTC ETF`s are still gaining market attention. Although the inflows into these funds slowed down a bit in the last two weeks, the situation changed after BTC managed to break the $43K level. As per news reports, the third largest daily net inflow of funds, of around $400 million, occurred on Thursday, which increased a holding of BTC`s by exchange traded funds to 9.260 BTC. Analysts who are closely following developments on the crypto market noted that ETFs are now holding 192.255 Bitcoins, which is around 2.000 higher from holdings of MicroStrategy. Considering high stakes of few participants on the market, there is currently a discussion if there might be a high concentration of BTC`s within several entities, which might lead to potential full control over the BTC market. Markus Levin, a head of operations at California tech start-up XY Labs, commented on this topic to CoinDesk, noting that the bitcoin network is still a distributed network and that “ the concentration of coins held by these entities is not a risk to the Bitcoin Network”. Crypto market cap The market optimism since the beginning of this year continues to hold on financial markets. For several weeks investors were more oriented toward the equity markets, while the prior week brought breakthroughs on the crypto market. Bitcoin finally broke the $43K level, which was a reflection of around $400 million of new funds inflow from several exchange traded funds on this market. It seems that investors are highly optimistic regarding the state of the US economy and are currently positioning for the expected Fed's rate cuts during the course of this year, seeking for more riskier assets in expectation of higher returns. As for current state of the US economy, figures are showing further relaxation in inflation and relatively stable economic output, however, the exact timing of the rate cuts, as well as, the number of it during this year, remains still unknown considering statements of some Fed officials, that Fed is concerned regarding cutting rates too soon. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 8% during the previous week, adding $133B on a weekly basis. The majority of these funds was added through the demand for Bitcoin. Daily trading volumes were also significantly increased from the week before, moving around $110B, which is a jump from $ 69B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization turned into the positive territory from the end of the previous year, currently adding $ 95B or 6% increase since the beginning of this year. During the previous week almost all coins gained in value, except a few who finished the week in the red. Bitcoin was the coin with highest demand, which increased its market cap by 9.5% or $80B on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, who managed to add $21B to its value or 7.6% during the week. Among significant gainers in nominal terms was Binance Coin, with a jump in value of almost $ 3B or 6.5%, while Solana managed again to be in the spotlight of investors, with an increase in value of $4.5B or 10.5%. In relative terms, some of the gainers above 5% in value were Bitcoin Gold, NEO and Tron, while Polygon and Uniswap gained above 7% each. Only a few coins finished the week in red, among which the biggest loser was Monero. Drop in value of almost 30% came after news that the Binance exchanger will delist this coin from its exchange, since the coin “no longer meets this standard”, as announced by the Binance. There has been some relaxed activity with coins in circulation compared to the week before. The highest change in coins on the market had Miota, who added 0.6% more coins compared to the week before, and Filecoin added 0.5% of coins. Solana and Polkadot had an increase of 0.2% of circulating coins, while Tether had a drop of 3.1% for the first time after a long period of the increasing trend. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market reflected increased investors optimism from the spot market. The crypto futures for both BTC and ETH ended the week higher from the week before for all maturities. For the first time in many months BTC long term futures crossed the $50K level, exposing the investors’ confidence about the future price of this coin. BTC short term futures ended the Friday`s trading session more than 10% higher from the week before in line with the spot market developments. Still, the major move was within longer term futures, where futures maturing in June 2025 crossed the $50K level, ending the week at price $50.530. At the same time, futures maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $52.345. These developments send a positive signal regarding the expectations on the future price developments of BTC. ETH futures were also traded higher from the end of the previous week. Short term futures were traded higher by some 8% on average, while long term ones ended the week higher by more than 5%. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at price $2.556, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $2.701.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP: Low VolatilityThe Crypto Total Market Cap on the weekly timeframe still has low volatility, which is shown by this Mean Absolute Deviation Percentile Indicator, which is a measure of volatility. If volatility itself remains extremely low, like it still is, then that means it only has room to expand, which means that the variation in returns is higher, which means bigger moves in the upcoming future. While volatility itself isn't directional, a big move will most likely occur soon, and you would want to bet on the side that gives you more returns, which is clearly towards the upside in the weekly timeframe.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by Traders_Endeavors
MARKETS week ahead: January 29 – February 4Last week in the news A new week and a new ATH for the S&P 500 during the first trading month in a year. Positive market optimism continues to be supported with expectations on forthcoming Fed rate cuts. On the other hand, the ECB meeting held during the previous week revealed potential for April`s rate cuts in the Euro Area. At the same time, USD, US Treasuries and Gold were holding relatively steady, while the crypto market increased its weekly volatility. Bitcoin ended the week with a bounce above the $ 41K, after shortly testing the $38K support. The market optimism which is reflected in the value of US equity indices continues to be supported by relatively solid US economic data. The preliminary US GDP growth rate for Q4 of the previous year reached 3.3% for the quarter, which was still above forecasted 2.0%. A drop in inflation has fueled consumer spending, supporting the economic output of the county. Although figures are showing improvement of the economy, there are analysts who are pointing to potential risks that might impact the economic output in 2024, which are related to geopolitical issues and potential other supply-chain disturbances which might trigger another surge in inflation and slow-down of economic growth. Still, considering a new ATH of the S&P 500 it seems that the market is currently not pricing any of these potential risks. The European Central Bank held a meeting during the previous week, where it left Euro rates unchanged, at 4,5%. In an after the meeting speech of ECB president Lagarde, market expectations were heated regarding the ECB`s possibility for its first rate cut from April this year. This was supported by the positive outlook for the EU economy, as perceived by ECB members. However, President Lagarde did not comment on any potential rate cuts for the moment. First data related to the BTC ETF show that BlackRock's ETF is currently the first one to reach $2 billion in value of assets under management. Total tokens held by the IBIT is currently around 50.000. The fund is followed by Fidelity's ETF (FBTC), which already reached $2 billion in value of assets. As per available data, the Grayscale`s ETF currently manages $30 million value of funds, after experiencing high outflow for the last two weeks. Analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence are reporting a net outflow of funds from all BTC linked ETFs by $158 million on Wednesday. As reported, the inflows of funds are modestly weakening during the last couple of days. The SEC`s approval of the first ETH Ethereum is still pending, and will be so for some time in the future period, based on SEC`s response to BlackRock`s and Fidelity`s filings. Namely, the SEC officially published that it needs a longer period of time and cannot provide an accurate answer at this moment. The date mentioned in SEC`s official letter, published on their website, is March 10th 2024, as the date of the final decision for the first ETF Ethereum. Crypto market cap While the US stock market continues to rally, the majority of crypto investors are asking what is going on with the crypto market after the approval of the first BTC ETF. There are several issues related to BTC`s increased volatility during the previous weeks. On one side it should be considered speculative money which strongly flowed to the BTC market on the first news that an ETF might be approved. These funds are now moved from the crypto market, after the collection of short term profits. The second topic which should be considered is that investors, who wanted to have an exposure toward crypto, already had an opportunity for that through BTC-linked ETF`s and other derivative products. Predictions of several analysts prior to the SEC`s approval were quite positive, noting that the price of BTC will skyrocket. However, the reality check showed that BTC entered into the mainstream, and is there to stay, in which sense, it cannot be expected in the future the same behavior as BTC did in the past. The higher adoption by the mainstream means a higher inflow of funds, higher availability of coins which all decreases the potential for higher fluctuations in the price of BTC. Same like with the FX market, if someone wants to make a significant move in this market, it will need to have a substantial amount of funds to make a difference in price. At the bottom line, that means huge institutional investors or central banks. Instead of some huge movements in the price, small investors and crypto enthusiasts should expect a lower BTC volatility in the future period, which is actually, the best thing which could happen to the BTC. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly basis, with an outflow of $21B in the value of the market. This week`s decrease was led by ETH, and not BTC. Daily trading volumes further decreased to the level of around $85B on a daily basis, from $99B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization decrease since the beginning of this year stands at 4%, with a total $ 70B lost in value of the market. BTC was not the coin which led the total crypto market value decrease during the previous week. It was actually ETH, with a loss of $24B or 8% on a weekly basis. The SEC issued an official letter that the decision on the approval of the first ETH ETF is postponed for March this year, which impacted market sentiment for this coin. Regardless of a drop in the price during the week, BTC ended it by 0.8% higher from the end of the week before, adding $ 6B to its market cap. Other altcoins were traded in a mixed manner. Highest gainers in a relative terms were Miota, with an increase of more than 10% in value, Maker was up by 4% on a weekly basis, while Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Cash were traded higher by 2.6% and 2.3% respectively. Among altcoins which lost in value during the week were Litecoin, with a drop of 5.14%, LINK was down by around 10%, Uniswap decreased its value by 8.8%, while ZCash was traded lower by 5.3%. Increased activity with coins in circulation continues from the start of this year. Tether gained 1.0% during the previous week, increasing its total value by this percentage. Miota also continued to increase the number of coins in circulation by 0.6% during the course of the previous week, while Filecoin`s coins increased by 0.5% w/w. Litecoin was one of rare coins on the market which decreased its circulating coins by 4.0% compared to the week before. Crypto futures market Although usually the crypto futures market reflects developments on the spot market, during the previous week ETH short term futures experienced higher drop in prices from the actual developments on the spot market. One of the reasons could be found in the fact that the SEC made an official postponement of its decision for the first ETH ETF. ETH short term futures ended the trading week less than 10% lower from the week before. Long term futures also dropped by more than 9%, for all maturities. Regardless of a drop, futures maturing in December this year are still holding above $2K level, with last traded price at $2.341. Futures maturing in December 2024 were last traded at price $2.474. In line with the spot market, short term BTC futures ended the week 0.9% higher from the week before, while long term futures experienced a drop in prices by more than 2% for all maturities. December 2024 futures were last traded at price $42.700, while December 2025 continues to hold above $45K, with last traded price at $45.870.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
🏃‍♀️🏃‍♂ LTC. The spring has compressed. XxX's are inevitableOne of the most anticipated online events in the digital currency ecosystem in H2'23 was the Litecoin (LTC) halving, that took place in early August, 2023. As the cryptocurrency market prepares for one of the network's major events, the Litecoin (LTC) halving, investors and analysts were peering into the crystal ball of market trends in an attempt to predict the outcome. However, based on the hype that has accompanied the halving event over the past few months, there is good reason to believe that the online event may produce a different result than expected. Historical backtest analysis says that every time the number of new addresses COINBASE:LTCUSD exceeded 350,000 over the past five years, a significant price correction followed. More than 690,000 LTC addresses have recently been created, suggesting that the upcoming halving could be a “news selling” event. On the other hand, the upcoming Litecoin halving, in theory, provides the opportunity for a significant price increase. This thesis stems from the deflationary effect that halving will cause, reducing the rate of creation of new Litecoins. Combined with the growing demand for the coin, this again, in theory, could create an ideal scenario for price growth in the medium to long term. The aftermath of the Litecoin halving should provide the cryptocurrency community with valuable information, especially as investors prepare for the subsequent Bitcoin halving BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , scheduled for April, 2024. Technical picture in Litecoin COINBASE:LTCUSD at the same time indicates a continuing deflationary price compression, with possible prospects for a further price decline within the boundaries of a downward channel to multi-year/ historical lows.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by Pandorra
MARKETS week ahead: January 22 - 27Last week in the news The market optimism continues to hold on financial markets for the second trading week in a year. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, surpassing the highs from the year 2022, reaching level of 4.840 on Friday. As USD gained a bit in strength, the US Treasury yields followed the path, while Gold remained relatively stable during the week. The crypto market continues to slow down after the approval of the first BTC ETF, with Bitcoin ending the week above the $41K. The most important news from the previous week is certainly a new ATH of S&P 500, reached at Friday`s trading session. The highest level reached was 4.840, still strongly supported by the tech companies. Investors continue to trade with a positive sentiment at the beginning of this year, supported by the good economic performance of the US economy and in expectation of forthcoming rate cuts. However, CNBC summarized the current market sentiment as investors "focus on good and ignore the bad, no matter how bad the bad parts might look sometimes". The “bad” part relates to the Fed`s expectations of a slow down of the US economy in the coming period, as well as currently strong geopolitical uncertainties. The annual gathering of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, was another topic which occupied the news during the previous week. Considering that this meeting gathers all important world economic and political leaders, it is closely watched by investors. When it comes to the EU economy, the ECB President, Christine Lagarde noted that the economy will most certainly not return into a “normality” during this year, but is more positive when it comes to developments in 2025. She sees consumption, trade and inflation as topics which need to return to the “normal”, which means to the levels prior to the pandemic. However, on the opposite side was German Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, who perceived developments in 2023 as a “new normal” in contrast to Lagarde`s “normalization”. He is supporting his standing taking into account current trends in the world, which is characterized with high geopolitical uncertainty, high oil prices, higher debt levels and low global growth perspectives, but he also noted developments around artificial intelligence. News is reporting that JPMorgan analysts are giving the 50% chance for the first ETH ETF to be approved. Their standing is supported by the fact of currently many outstanding SEC lawsuits against crypto exchangers for their product of staking crypto coins, where majority of the staking products is related to ETH. In this sense, the Bank analysts are noting, until these are resolved the SEC might postpone its decision on Ark21Shares filing for the spot ETH ETF, which is due on 23th May this year. At the same time, ARK and its founder Cathie Wood are shorting holdings of BITO (ProShares Bitcoin ETF) and are moving funds into its own ARKB, the bitcoin ETF, as per news reports. Crypto market cap While stock equities are again in the spotlight of investors, pushing the S&P 500 index to its highest levels ever, the crypto market continues to slow down for the second week in a row. There is a modest transfer of funds, where speculative money, invested in expectation of the significant increase in the price of BTC after the approval of the BTC ETF, is now searching for new opportunities for a short term profits outside the crypto market. Although it seems that the fun days of BTC and ETH are over, still, the crypto futures market is showing a completely different picture. Namely, investor’s expectations for the future price of BTC are quite positive, where futures maturing in December 2025 reached the price above the $47K level within the first week of trading. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 3% on a weekly basis, with an outflow of $50B in the value of the market. Daily trading volumes also dropped to the level of around $99B on a daily basis, from $174B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization decrease since the beginning of this year stands at 3%. For the second week in a row, Bitcoin is the coin which is mostly dragging the crypto market to the downside. Although two weeks ago the crypto market was traded in a mixed manner, still, during the previous week the majority of crypto coins lost in value. BTC finished the week 3% lower from the week before, losing more than $25B in value. ETH followed the path of BTC, with a drop in value of almost 4% or $12,2B. Among significant weekly losers in nominal terms were XRP, with a drop in value of $1.3B or 4.3%, Cardano was down by $1.2B or 6%, Polkadot was down by 1.4B or almost 14% on a weekly basis. Among other coins which lost in value were Ethereum Classic, with a drop of 15%, Bitcoin Gold was down by 20%, while Miota and Algorand lost more than 10% in value. There were only a few coins who finished the week with a gain, like Binance Coin, which managed to attract more than SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B in value, increasing it by 2.3%, while LINK managed to increase its value by 11.4%. Increased activity with circulating coins also continues for the second week in a row. The most significant change occurred with BNB coins, where 1.4% of circulating coins were withdrawn from the market. At the same time, Polkadot decreased the level of circulating coins by 3% within a single week. The majority of other altcoins had a modest increase in coin on the market, ranging around 0.1%, where Polygon had an surge of 0.6% while Maker`s number of coins were up by 0.2%. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market also slowed down during the previous week. Still, developments are showing that investors continue to be positive about the future prices of both BTC and ETH. Previous week two new maturities were listed on the CME for both coins, for June 2025 and December 2025. During the first week of trading, BTC`s December 2025 futures ended the week at price above the $47K, while ETH futures for the same maturity were closed at price $2.728. BTC`s short term futures dropped by more than 4%, but still were trading above the $41K. Although longer term futures dropped by more than 11%, still the prices were holding above $43K. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price of $43.860, while March 2025 was last traded at $44.675. ETH short term futures were last traded lower by more than 1% compared to the previous week, while longer term ones were down by less than 6%. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $2.584, while those maturing in March 2025 closed the week at price $2.618.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Crypto market and my personal concernsAs of the current moment, I do not have any active trades in the cryptocurrency market. I have closed all of my long positions, though I have not yet transitioned to short positions—at least not as of now. The purpose of this post is to address some specific concerns: First and foremost, considering common sense factors: - The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is undeniably bullish. - Technically, the majority of charts exhibit a bullish trend. - Fundamentally, various factors such as ETF, halving on BTC, and the US Election contribute to a positive outlook. - The prevailing sentiment across the internet strongly indicates the possibility of a new bull run. However, I find it disconcerting when everything appears too clear-cut. Secondly, from a technical standpoint: 1. Contrary to the overall bullish sentiment, the past month has not been favorable, with weekly candles showing long upper tails. 2. The 1.7-1.8 level holds historical significance as an old liquidity and support level, now acting as resistance. 3. Observing the pattern since October 2022 reveals the formation of an ascending broadening wedge, typically indicative of a reversal pattern. In light of these observations, it is essential to exercise caution and not FOMO, at least from my perspective.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Mihai_Iacob
8
Cryptomarkets outlook for Q1 2024Hello fellow traders, hope everyone is doing well. In this post I try to explain What & Why is expected from Cryptomarket in Q1 2024. This idea is based on micro and macro economy outlook, in which the most important part is Interest Rate of FED as a moving tool. Aswell, note that current market environment in which Interest Rates was elevated occured only ONE TIME in history of this market if we count for whole Collective Market. To not make this post unnecessarily long, I make it clear in points. -- Chart is composed from BITCOIN / USINTR(orange) / TOTAL3(blue) / Cardano(yellow) -- 1. - Idea of this Cryptomarket review/prediction is based on (*pic.1). Which is ONLY TIME in History of Cryptomarket when there was Interest Rates Hikes and Cuts. Important note: We need to take into consideration that current market micro and macro conditions are different, due to Highier Inflation which resulted into Highier Interest Rates. So I do not expect cutting back to 0 in first major cutting cycle. 2. - Considering previous, I expect Cryptomarket could behave in Q1 of 2024 at similar fashion then it did in 2019. Main focus should stay on BITCOIN, altcoin is used as guidance in this case. 3. - So, we can see that in 2019 market not found its TOP, until FED Started cutting Rates. Which means, whole time they Hold on Pause market was climbing highier, even if it was elevated for prolonged period of time without any major pullbacks. So, my Base Expectation is market can still keep going highier. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decide to START cutting rates. 4. - Which could possibly take further in Q2, if they do not decide to Cut at March meeting. Note, I do not expect them to Cut at 31st. January meeting. 5. - This idea will be considered "INVALID" in a case where FED decide to CUT sooner then expected, due to terrible earning reports or any other Major disruption factor in normal economy process. 6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didnt Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!! Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found. *reference picture 1. - TLDR - "Cryptomarkets should stay in bullish sentiment with elevated price action until FED start cutting Interest Rates." Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpfull in futher market navigating. If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks Joe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptocapitaltrading