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Cryptomarkets outlook for Q1 2024Hello fellow traders, hope everyone is doing well. In this post I try to explain What & Why is expected from Cryptomarket in Q1 2024. This idea is based on micro and macro economy outlook, in which the most important part is Interest Rate of FED as a moving tool. Aswell, note that current market environment in which Interest Rates was elevated occured only ONE TIME in history of this market if we count for whole Collective Market. To not make this post unnecessarily long, I make it clear in points. -- Chart is composed from BITCOIN / USINTR(orange) / TOTAL3(blue) / Cardano(yellow) -- 1. - Idea of this Cryptomarket review/prediction is based on (*pic.1). Which is ONLY TIME in History of Cryptomarket when there was Interest Rates Hikes and Cuts. Important note: We need to take into consideration that current market micro and macro conditions are different, due to Highier Inflation which resulted into Highier Interest Rates. So I do not expect cutting back to 0 in first major cutting cycle. 2. - Considering previous, I expect Cryptomarket could behave in Q1 of 2024 at similar fashion then it did in 2019. Main focus should stay on BITCOIN, altcoin is used as guidance in this case. 3. - So, we can see that in 2019 market not found its TOP, until FED Started cutting Rates. Which means, whole time they Hold on Pause market was climbing highier, even if it was elevated for prolonged period of time without any major pullbacks. So, my Base Expectation is market can still keep going highier. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decide to START cutting rates. 4. - Which could possibly take further in Q2, if they do not decide to Cut at March meeting. Note, I do not expect them to Cut at 31st. January meeting. 5. - This idea will be considered "INVALID" in a case where FED decide to CUT sooner then expected, due to terrible earning reports or any other Major disruption factor in normal economy process. 6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didnt Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!! Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found. *reference picture 1. - TLDR - "Cryptomarkets should stay in bullish sentiment with elevated price action until FED start cutting Interest Rates." Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpfull in futher market navigating. If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks Joe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptocapitaltrading
MARKETS week ahead: January 14 - 20Last week in the news At the start of this year Bitcoin reached another important milestone in its further acceptance into the mainstream. During the previous week the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot BTC Exchange Traded Fund. Through this milestone, BTC managed to secure its future on the mainstream markets. How it will secure the destiny of other altcoins is to be seen. During the first trading week in this year, markets were traded with a positive sentiment. The US Treasury yields continue with downtrend in expectation of rate cuts during this year, while gold continues to hold above $2K, following USD recent weakness as well as Middle East tensions. A long awaited news regarding approval of the first spot BTC ETF finally came to fruition. During the previous week the US SEC approved filings from several large Wall Street names, among which, the largest one is certainly the BlackRock asset manager. This represents a huge milestone for BTC and its wider acceptance among market participants. With this move, large institutional investors will have an approach to the crypto market, through traditional market channels. In this manner, the existence of the BTC is secured for the future period. How this will affect other altcoins is to be seen in the future. The SEC is still of opinion that the majority of these are simple securities in a digital form, which needs to be aligned with already existing law on securities in the US. This is also a relevant question when it comes to existing filings for the first ETH ETF pending SEC`s approval. Anyway, regardless of the BTC`s win at the beginning of this year, there are emerging challenges in the tech and financial industries which will compete with the BTC during the coming years. In this sense, a regulation within the crypto industry comes at the first place and is followed with the rise of AI in finance and other industries, as well as growth and innovations of alternative finance within the field of FinTech, DeFi and other non-traditional financial channels. It all implies that the BTC will have to put additional effort during the year, in order to continue to attract investor’s funds. As investors are relieved by information that BTC ETF is approved, BlackRock`s CEO, Larry Fink, is now eyeing the approval of the first ETH ETF. In his interview to CNBC, Fink supported further tokenization, noting “I really do believe this is where we are going to be going”. It was also interesting to hear his standing that Bitcoin is an asset class that can hedge investor’s funds against geopolitical risks. BlackRock`s product iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has its debut on Thursday, after the SEC approved its product, with roughly a $1billion in trading volume. Previous week was also the one where US banks were posting their quarterly results. The environment of significantly increased interest rates left its mark on bank earnings, as well as few takeovers which occurred during the previous year, after several bank collapses. JPMorgan was among those whose earnings slipped by 15% q/q. The bank's earnings were also hit by $743 million in investment losses due to the rescue of banks in the banking crisis during the year 2023 in the US. Crypto market cap A long awaited first spot BTC ETF has been approved by the SEC, but the market turned the price of crypto coins to the downside, instead to the upside. Many analysts were predicting that the price of BTC might skyrocket after the approval of the first ETF, noting some figures of even $100K, but it did not happen. Obvious question is if there is something wrong with their analysis or something else happened on the market? Well, in economic theory which relates to traditional markets, there is a topic called market efficiency. The core of this theory is that the market will always price all known information at this moment so that the current price of some asset will reflect its real price. As BTC is getting more and more involved in the traditional markets, the rules of traditional markets will more and more apply to this asset. With wider acceptance of the BTC, we can expect that its price will see more stability in the future period. This is exactly what had happened to BTC. Namely, as of the last quarter of 2023 with the first market rumor that the first spot BTC ETF could be approved, the majority of investors, but also market speculators, the price of BTC headed toward the $45K. This was a huge move to the upside, when the market reached its top. After the SEC`s approval, the balloon which was heating the market was released, so the majority of speculators could pick their profits and move their funds into some other promising asset which would provide them excess profits. At the same time, one should not forget that there is a developed derivative market for crypto assets, in which some leveraged positions were closed, supporting in this manner the spiral to the downside. At one moment, some investors will see a good purchasing opportunity, when the downtrend will be halted and BTC will start its new cycle, but this time, on much healthier grounds from the previous one. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, moving around $1.64 trillion. Daily trading volumes were significantly increased to the level of $174B on a daily basis, which was not recently seen on the crypto market. During the first two days since the approval of BTC, around $4.6B in volume was traded on the market, which significantly contributed to the overall trading volumes. With the approval of the first BTC ETF, it was Ether who actually gained the most. BTC lost some of its value, around $ 20B, during the previous week, due to reasons mentioned above. At the same time, the price of ETH was up by almost 12% on a weekly basis, adding around $ 33B to its market cap. This is again sort of speculative move, considering market expectations that the first ETH ETF will soon be approved after the BTC`s fund was approved. Certainly, these are only expectations, while the certainty of it is known only to the SEC. When it comes to other altcoins, there was sort of rebalancing between different coins on the market. On one side, there were those with significant gain during the week, while on the other side, there were those with significant loss during the week. Coins like Maker, Filecoin, Polygon, Tron, Uniswap, even Binance Coin were among those who gained during the week. On the opposite side were coins like XRP, LINK, DOGE, ADA, Monero, Solana, Algorand which were among losing altcoins. As for coins in circulation, there has been significant activity during the previous week. It seems that the approval of the BTC ETF has moved many coins which were staked somewhere to get back into the market again. There has been an increased volume of circulating coins for the majority of altcoins. Tether managed to increase its market cap and value by increasing its circulating coins by more than 4% on a weekly basis, which has not been recently seen with this coin. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market reflected developments on the spot market, but only through the short term futures. While BTC short term futures were last traded down by more than 2%, at the same time, ETH futures were up by more than 7%. Developments on BTC longer term futures were positive, and were traded by more than 5% higher from the end of the previous week. Futures maturing in December 2024 were traded at price $49.785 or 5.16% higher, while major development was with futures maturing in March 2025 where the price for the first time reached the $50K level, ending the week at $50.710. This expresses positive investors sentiment over the future price of the BTC. Similar situation was also with ETH longer term futures. They ended the week around 13% higher from the week before, where December 2024 was last traded at price $2.743, while March 2025 ended the week at $2.782 or 15.5% higher from the week before. Regardless of the positive market movements, it is still evident that investors are a bit skeptical when ETH`s future value is in question.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Small MC crypto BTC2.0 Swing Trade $BTC2Potential opportunity for a nice swing trade at approximately $0.65. The stock seems to be forming a Cup and Handle pattern, which is a classic technical analysis formation. In a Cup and Handle, the price chart resembles the shape of a tea cup with a handle. It's considered a bullish continuation pattern, suggesting that after a previous uptrend, there might be a consolidation (the 'cup') followed by a smaller pullback (the 'handle') before another potential upward movement. This pattern often indicates a period of accumulation and can be a signal for a potential bullish trend. Keep an eye on the developments, and if everything aligns, it could be a great chance for a profitable short-term trade. Enjoy exploring the possibilities in the market, and happy trading, lads!
Long
by TraderWU
1
2023 Key Resistance for BTCThe price of bitcoin rose to start the week, extending gains from the previous week helped by optimism about a bitcoin exchange-traded fund and a flight to safety. Treasury bonds interest rates are also retreating from their recent highs. Bitcoin was trading about 5% higher at $ 31'518, according to Monday trades, and coming off its best week since June. It has touched $30,000 at several points in 2023 but has struggled to sustain that level or move meaningfully higher with the U.S. regulatory crackdown on crypto weighing on liquidity and trading volumes. Investors are expecting the approval of a bitcoin ETF to change that between the end of the year and the first half of 2024. Several firms have also amended their filings in the past couple weeks to address earlier concerns by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which investors are taking as a positive sign that the agency is engaging positively with the firms. This publication is quick and simple as well as all other articles by @Pandorra Patience.. Patience.. and once again Patience.. 52-weeks highs resistance is very important, and in case of breaking out, it can open an opportunity to further upside price action, to BITSTAMP:BTCUSD historical highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PandorraResearch
3
Seizing Opportunities: Analyzing LTC's Long-Term Support!LTC is currently trading above a significant long-term support level that has held for 1862 days, as evident from historical price interactions. This support has consistently resulted in a bounce for LTC whenever the price approaches it. While we anticipate another bounce, it is prudent to acknowledge the possibility of a breakdown. Fortunately, the risk associated with this trade is minimal due to a short stop-loss (SL). The trade appears favorable with a low risk and a potentially high reward. Turning our attention back to the chart, the symmetrical triangle pattern observed indicates similarities with a previous breakout, leading to a substantial 500% increase. The formation of a similar pattern now suggests the potential for another breakout, which could lead to a significant upward movement. Noteworthy resistance levels during this anticipated movement include $79, $135, and the all-time high (ATH). It is imperative to emphasize that this analysis is not financial advice. Investors are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research (DYOR) and base their decisions on individual risk tolerance and market comprehension.
Long
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
1
MARKETS week ahead: January 8 - 13Last week in the news Markets are slowly heating up after a Holiday break and summary of last year's results. For the majority the year 2023 was a positive one, although with a glimpse of turbulence. Gold managed to finally break the $2K psychological line, ending the year above $2.050 level. The S&P 500 also managed to reach new highs at the end of the year, in expectation of interest rate drops somewhere in Y2024. On the same grounds, the 10Y US Treasury benchmark ended the year around 3.8%. For another year, the crypto market managed to beat the traditional ones, with significant yearly gain of more than 100%. The story related to the first spot BTC ETF is still holding the value of the whole market, especially the price of Bitcoin. Previous year on markets, although the turbulent one, still managed to end on a positive note and significant yearly gains. The policy makers were certainly the ones in the center of market interest. After strong rate increases of more than 500 bps, the US Fed reached the point of a potential for a reversal. Inflation of targeted 2% is in the center of Fed's monetary policy, but the inflation has been resistant for some time. This imposed a discussion among market participants whether there will be a hard landing, soft landing or no landing at all in the US economy? However, the US economy showed a clear resilience for the strong interest rate hikes, surprising even the FOMC members. During Q4 2023 market slowly started to ignore Fed`s narrative, in expectation of a soon pivoting point. In Q4 the Fed gave up from further rate increases, which was the moment of celebration in markets. They were relieved to finally start positioning for a rate cut in the coming year. This was also a starting point for the Y2024. Still, regardless of the US economy's resilience, not all industries were resilient to strong rate increases. During Y2023 we witnessed several bank collapses like Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, Heartland Tri-State Bank. Relatively bad asset and liability management, connections to the crypto industry and bank run-offs were some of the main reasons for these financial institutions to discontinue their businesses. Luckily, there has not been a high scale of contamination, in which sense, the rest of the financial system went through these crises intact. The crypto industry was also in the center of market interest due to several reasons. First, there were several pledges and proceedings made by US authorities, especially the SEC. The most well known scandal over the FTX exchanger ended in November last year, when its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of seven charges of money laundering and fraud. Another news that spotted the market interest was a finalization of court proceedings against the founder of Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, who was found guilty of violation of several rules related to anti money laundering. Binance has settled charges by agreeing to pay $4.3 billion to the US regulators. Within the next five years, the Binance exchanges would most probably cease to exist. Although this was huge news, still, the market reacted positively to it, increasing the value of the crypto market. This actually came as a positive news for investors as they perceived that there will finally be some order within the crypto industry, so that the market would be able to further develop into a mainstream. Another big news within the both crypto and main financial industries was that some of the biggest players on the Wall Street have filed with the SEC to start operations with a spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds. These names include BlackRock, VanEck, Valkyrie Investments, Fidelity and Wisdom Tree Investments, to name a few. It should be added that few asset managers like BlackRock and Ark Investment applied for first spot ETH ETF. Filings are still on the table, waiting for a final call from the SEC. This continues to be one of the main topics on the crypto market for Y2024. In case that ETFs are approved, analysts are betting on a further significant increase of the value of the crypto market. Crypto market cap The first half of the year 2023 was quite a challenging one for the crypto market capitalization. The market cap fell even below the $1 trillion mark, and many analysts were predicting its further move to the downside. However, in Q4 2023, something happened which the market is calling the “BlackRock effect”, when the largest asset manager in the world announced its filing for the first spot BTC ETF in the US. This was a huge breakthrough for the crypto market, when it bounces back, ending the year above $1.6 trillion. This is still below its all time highs, however, currently the market looks at a positive direction. On this road there are still some obstacles mostly related to the regulatory environment. It should not be forgotten that regulators still perceive this market in the gray zone when it comes to full compliance with regulation. While the market participants are calling for a clear regulation within a field of the crypto industry, the SEC and its Chair Gensler, continue to stick with the narrative that regulation already exists and that the vast majority of both coins and crypto products should fully comply with the US Law on securities. In other words, anyone who wants to offer any kind of crypto product, especially staking, should first file with the SEC for approval to offer security-like products. Challenges for the crypto industry within the regulatory framework will continue to be a high priority of the regulators all around the world. As per US regulators, they still perceive both altcoins and stablecoins as highly risky assets, with high potential of frauds and those not fitting into anti money laundering laws. On the opposite side is the whole crypto industry, which is still holding the view that they just need a completely new set of regulatory rules. All challenges from Y2023 will stay in place for Y2024. Both promise and uncertainty will be in place for the crypto market during this year. Certainly increased adoption and continued institutional involvement could fuel further growth of this market. Still, the regulatory clarity and technological advancements will play an important role in shaping the future of the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization ended the year at a level of $1.638 trillion, which represents its starting point for Y2024. This level also represents a yearly gain of 117% where the crypto market added $882B. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market closely watched developments on the crypto spot market during the year 2023. Although the first half of the year was a bit shy when it comes to prices of long term futures, still, during the second half of the year there has been a record number of large open interest holders for both BTC and ETH futures. This was a promising sign that institutional investors are still not ready to give up on the crypto assets, especially BTC and ETH. As the market continued to express interest, the CME launched micro BTC and ETH futures, and made them available for smaller investors for investing or hedging purposes. However, it should be noted that such a move was additional support to increased trading volume and liquidity on the futures market. Long term BTC futures ended the year at levels above $ 48K, while ETH futures sustained a $2.5K level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
The End of Crypto for a Long TimeI'm being dramatic lol, but I just started going down the rabbit hole of what if the cycles don't just repeat like everyone says. I have been in crypto since 2013 and don't really think it's over, but I'm just playing devils advocate. I do think we hit a major resistnace and have at least a local top on our hands. If the cycle was ever to stop we have a major confluence of 3 resistances, even breaking of the 2013 uptrend line is not a good sight. Do I really think the cycle is over? No, but I did take enough profit in case hah, It's just really been bugging me how many people say just buy and hold and you're fine, I have never seen that many people confortable with crypto in previous cycles which is freaky to me, but this is where my contrarian side can get me in trouble. I'm just going to continue to play the charts, but if crypto were to completely hault for a long time, this would be the confluence to do it.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by ghengiskahnspermshot
MARKETS week ahead: December 24 - 30Last week in the news During the previous week the Western markets were preparing for the forthcoming Holiday session before the year-end. The positive market sentiment continued to prevail on the markets, as traders were preparing to book profits this year. The US equity markets were closed higher from the week before, with S&P 500 closing the week at yearly highs. Gold continued to hold above $2K level, as USD was losing some of its value. The US Treasuries continue to be in the spotlight of the market, with decreasing yields and increased prices. The crypto market finished the week also in a positive sentiment, where BTC is ending another week modestly below the $44K. After the Fed decided to keep its interest rates unchanged in December, the markets got a new level of optimism, wondering when the first pivoting point will occur. The majority still perceive that the Q1 of next year could mark the start of Fed`s cutting interest rates. As for Powell's rhetoric, the Fed is still not thinking about this step. Certainly, by their projections, it is clear that rate cuts will occur during the course of 2024, where the expected rate at the end of the year ahead would be 4.6%. The dynamics of rate cuts would certainly depend on the inflation behavior in the coming period. During the previous week the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was published for November, showing further relaxation in inflation in November. The index was standing at 3.2% for the year, while core PCE was up 0.1%, for the month, which was below Fed`s expectations. This is an indication to markets that the inflation will most probably continue to move within the down-road, decreasing the probability of any sort of rate increases in the coming period, while at the same time increasing the probability that the Fed might cut rates sooner than expected. Last week in the news was an astonishing yearly result of the British fin tech company Revoult. Its revenues have increased by 45%, for the year, regardless of a drop in net profits to 6 million pounds. The company has a significant base of clients, reaching 26.2 million, and has filed with the British authorities to obtain the banking license. Revoult is by far the most valuable start-up in Britain. As markets are still focused on a question whether the first BTC ETF will be approved or not, the SEC continues to be focused on making some order within the crypto industry. Last week, SEC Chair Gensler commented that frauds continue to be one of the main concerns for regulators within the crypto industry and its full compliance with the regulation. Last week BarnBridge DAO, a company within the crypto industry, made a settlement with SEC, in order to settle SEC`s allegations. Total agreed amount to be paid by BarnBridge is $1.7 million. The SEC accused the company for offering illegal securities in crypto to the U.S investors. This refers to their product called SMART Yield. Crypto market cap The year-end market optimism was holding also on the crypto market during the whole last month. Although the initial frenzy was initiated by the stories related to the first BTC ETF fund, still, during the second half of December, US macro fundamentals left their mark on the positive market sentiment. Two weeks ago, there was a small correction in this cycle, however, the last trading week brought some profit-taking season also on the crypto market. A clear slow down in the US inflation, as well as anticipation that the Fed might quite soon start with rate cuts, increased the appetite in investors to search for riskier assets in order to increase their potential for profitability in the year to come. Despite some volatility during the course of this year, the crypto market is managing to end the year 116% higher from the end of the previous year. Total crypto market capitalization was increased during the previous week by another 6%, adding a total of $88B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes continue to be at a higher level, moving around $127B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 116%, where it has added a total $874B to the market cap. Regardless of a general increase in cap during the previous week, not all coins contributed to it. It was another week with domination of Bitcoin and Ether, while some other altcoins ended the week with a small decrease in value. BTC has another positive week, where it has increased its value by 3.56% on a weekly basis, followed by ETH, which managed to add 2.11% w/w. Ethereum Classic was also in the spotlight of investors, where the coin managed to increase its value by 4.6%. Few of altcoins had excellent performance during the week, where Solana managed to increase its cap by an incredible 27.13% w/w, while Algorand was up by 17.03%. From other coins, it should be mentioned Binance Coin, with an increase in value by 9.54%, NEO was up by almost 8% on a weekly basis, while LINK added 7.92% to its cap. On a losing track were DOGE and Cardano, which both decreased their cap by more than 1% while Miota was down by 2.6% on a weekly basis. As for coins in circulation, there has not been significant changes on a weekly basis. Certainly, this does not include Tether, which continues to strongly add its circulating coins, adding new 0.14% during the previous week. Crypto futures market Positive market sentiment was also reflected on the crypto futures market, and this time especially in long term crypto futures. Both BTC and ETH futures gained during the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded above 3% higher, in line with the spot market. December 2024 ended the week at a price of $43.815. It was interesting to see that BTC long term futures are still trading higher, where December 2024 ended the week at $47.340, while those futures maturing in March 2025 were last traded at price $48.215 or even 2.6% higher from the week before. These are reflections of a positive sentiment for the future value of BTC, as the market is currently not expecting that the BTC`s price might return to some lower levels from current. ETH futures were also traded higher, less than 3% compared to the week before. Futures maturing in December were closed at 2.97% higher value from the week before, closing at $2.324. Those futures maturing in December next year were last traded at $2.500, for the first time since last year. However, futures maturing in March 2025 ended the week at $2.408, expressing market insecurity whether ETH could sustain these levels on a longer run.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: December 18 – 24Last week in the news Both the FED and the ECB left the rates unchanged during the previous week. The US Treasury yields slipped further in expectation of rate cuts, while US equities finished another week in green. The USD lost some in value, while Gold gained on a weaker dollar. The crypto market eased during the previous week, where Bitcoin slipped toward $ 42K, from $45K week before. The FOMC members left rates unchanged on December`s meeting. The rhetoric of Fed Chair Powell in after-the-meeting statement was finally aligned with the market, and estimation that there will be no more rate hikes. The Fed acknowledged that the inflation has eased, without a significant drop in employment. However, the FOMC estimate is that the inflation is still high, and that further effort is needed in order to bring it down to the targeted 2%. The economic activity in the US has slowed down substantially in Q4, so the Fed is expecting GDP growth rate to reach 2.5% in 2023, as a result of strong consumer demand. FOMC members are projecting that the inflation will clearly reach level of 2% in year 2026. Although Powell did not exclude possibility for further rate increases if necessary, the FOMC members continue to perceive Fed's funds rate at 4.6% at the end of 2024, and its further decline during the consecutive years. As per CME Group`s FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing a 25 bps rate cut in March, with expectations for current Fed funds rate to be lower by around 150 bps by the end of year 2024. The European Central Bank also held a policy meeting during the previous week, leaving the rates unchanged. Although their US colleagues are at least mentioning expectations of rate cuts in 2024, the ECB diverged from such a scenario, mentioning that the rates will stay sufficiently higher for as long as necessary. The most recent inflation reading in November for the Euro Zone, shows that the inflation has eased to the level of 2.4% on a yearly basis. Still, considering Europe’s dependence on energy, analysts are noting the possibility for prices to swiftly move to higher grounds. On the other side are economists, which are projecting first ECB`s rate cut in June 2024. During the year 2022 Coinbase submitted a request to the Securities and Exchange Commission with a petition for the establishment of the crypto regulation. The SEC finally provided an answer to the petition noting that there is no need for such a course of action as “the existing securities regime appropriately governs crypto asset securities”. The US Financial Stability Oversight Council met during the previous week, issuing a report on risks coming from the crypto assets. The same report was issued also as of the end of the previous year, while the latest report did not add almost anything new to last year`s topics. The risks that should be overseen and regulated continues to be the volatility of the crypto assets, a high amount of leverage, the cyber security and risks for investors and potentially financial markets. Crypto market cap The Fed has finally aligned with the market. Although Fed is still not excluding the option of further increase of interest rates, still, Powell noted that majority of FOMC members are perceiving rates at 4.6% as of the end of the next year. Such rhetoric stands in line with the market expectation on further easing of inflation and Fed`s cut of interest rates by 25 basis points in March 2024. Market reacted positively to Powell's speech, and brought US equities to higher grounds, while Treasury yields fell sharply on the news. Still, the crypto market reacted in a negative manner to news that the SEC does not have plans to introduce new regulation which will cover specifically crypto assets. Instead, SEC Chair Gensler is of the opinion that current regulation in the US is sufficient to cover all regulatory aspects of crypto currencies. Total crypto market capitalization modestly dropped during the previous week by 2,4%, losing around $39B. On a positive side that daily trading volumes remained at higher level, moving around $94B on a daily basis, a bit lower from $121B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 107%, where it has added total $810B to the market cap. A drop in total market capitalization during the previous week was mostly driven by major coins, BTC and ETH. Bitcoin dropped around 3.4%, losing $ 29B in market capitalization. ETH lagged a bit behind the BTC, with a drop in value of 4.6% or above $13B. XRP was also in a group of significant losers with a weekly drop of more than 9% or $3.5B. Other altcoins were mostly on a weekly losing side, except a few which managed to finish the week in green. Among higher losers on a weekly basis were, ZCash, Link and Bitcoin Cash which dropped by more than 10% each. Algorand and Maker decreased their value by more than 9%. Litecoin, Stellar and EOS were down by more than 7%. Among several coins which managed to gain during the previous week were OMG Network, with a gain around 10% in value, while Filecoin increased its market cap by almost 3.5% w/w. There has been some increased activity with circulating coins, where Polygon managed to add 2.9% of new coins into circulation and was followed by LINK, which made an increase of 2.0%. Within a group of higher weekly gainers of coins are Uniswap, with an increase of 1.7% and Filecoin whose coins on the market surged by 0.8%. For several weeks Tether continues to build the number of coins on the market, increasing it by an additional 0.6% during the previous week. Crypto futures market After three weeks of strong push to the upside, crypto futures eased during the previous week, in line with developments on the spot market. However, it is important to note that long term ones are managing to hold at elevated levels, despite the modest drop. BTC short term futures were traded more than 5% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded down by 5.73% on a weekly basis, still ending the week at level of $42.450. Longer term futures dropped a bit less, around 4.5%, with December 2024 ending the week at price $46.500, which is 5.18% lower from the week before. March 2025 is still holding above the $47K level. ETH short term futures dropped by more than 5%, while longer term once had a drop of more than 2%. December 2024 closed the week at $2.257, or 5.84% lower on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December 2024 were down by 2.3%, closing the week at level of $2.433. March 2025 is still holding above $2.4K level, despite the drop of 2.26% w/w.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: December 11 – 17Last week in the news The strong resilience of the US economy continues to support market optimism, after the latest posted US jobs data for November. The USD gained during the week as well as both US and EU equities. While Gold is trying to get back into correlation with USD, US Treasury yields continued with a decline. The crypto market continues to be supported by both the resilience of the US economy and the BTC ETF frenzy, with Bitcoin reaching new highs for this year, below $45K. The US non-farm payrolls rose by 199K in November, modestly better from market forecast. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell down to 3.7%, from 3.9% posted for October. The job market continues to be resilient to macroeconomic developments. November figures came as a surprise to analysts, but eventually some of them call it a “relief” as it shows that despite strong rate increases during the past year, the US economy managed to sustain jobs and businesses. The European Union is aiming to regulate AI technology and products like ChatGPT. There has been a lot of discussion during the previous months, related to data privacy on platforms like ChatGPT or biometric models. At the same time, Italy, France and Germany are opposing tight regulating rules, especially for foundation models, stressing the concern that it might impact their competitiveness with the Chinese and the US tech industry. The Binance exchanger has withdrawn their license for the investment license in Abu Dhabi. The company has noted that such a move is not related to recent legal settlements with US regulators, but they find it “unnecessary for the company’s global needs”. A global regulator of the financial industry, the Basel Committee, is looking at risks that stablecoins pose for financial security, aiming to bring up regulations which will decrease identified risks. This regulation should address bank`s exposures to the crypto industry and mitigate potential risks of defaults like recently Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. El Salvador, the first state that made Bitcoin a legal tender, is going further with its state experiment with crypto currencies. The recently started project called “Freedom VISA” aims to attract 1.000 people on a yearly basis, which will gain El Salvador long-term residency permit, based on a minimum $1 million investment worth of bitcoin or USDT stablecoin. The country is estimated to receive at least $1 billion of cash inflow every year through this program. Crypto market cap The positive mood on financial markets continued through December, promising a very happy forthcoming New Year holidays. The latest published jobs figures for November this year supported further market optimism over the resilience of the US economy. Both EU and US stock markets reacted in a positive manner, boosting also further the crypto market, which is in addition, still moving within a sentiment over its further adoption by the mainstream. Analysts and investors are currently moving away from the US Fed rhetoric and pricing their view on the course of the economy in the future period. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by significant $179B, with an increase of 12.6% on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes have also significantly increased to the level of $121B on a daily basis, which is a further boost from $ 67B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 112%, where it has added a total $840B to the market cap. Total crypto market significantly gained during the previous week, with the majority of coins finishing the week in green. In nominal terms, Bitcoin was once again star of the week, adding 13.8% to its market cap, or almost $105B. The second place belongs to Ether, with a surge in value of 12.6%, adding $ 32B to its market cap on a weekly basis. As a significant gainer should be mentioned Cardano (ADA) with a surge in value of $8.2B or 60.2%. This was a reflection of Cardano`s Robinhood listing in the EU. Solana was also in the spotlight of the market with a gain of $6.3B in market cap or more than 24%, which was supported by the successful network upgrade. DOGE gained $2.5B, increasing its cap by 21%, BNB also gained $ 2B which surged its value by 6%. Polkadot was also a $ 2B gainer of the week, adding more than 24% to its value. Majority of other altcoins gained significantly during the week, where especially should be mentioned Algorand, with an incredible surge in cap by 52.5%. There is still no official news what exactly was standing behind such a move. Activity in circulating coins remains relatively high during the last couple of weeks. The highest changes during the week were with Tether, which added 0.9% of new tokens, Stellar increased the number of circulating coins by 0.4%, while Filecoin traditionally continued with a surge in coins on the market, adding 0.6% during the previous week. The only negative change was with Polkadot, which decreased its coins by 3.7% on a weekly basis. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market made its significant move during the previous week. This market is also providing some important inputs over the sentiment of investors on the crypto market. BTC both short and long term futures were higher by more than 14% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year reached the last price of $45.030. At the same time those maturing in December 2024 reached the price of $49.040, which is the first time within the last year that those futures finished the week around the level close to $50K resistance. Still, it should be noted that prices of futures maturing in March 2025 reached $47.760, which is a bit lower from December 2024. Similar situation was with ETH futures. Short term ones were traded higher by around 11% on average. December 2023 ended the week at a price of $2.397, while December 2024 was last traded at $2.490. It should be also noted that March 2025 ended the week at $2.525 indicating current investors positive sentiment regarding future ETH price.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Alcoins- Is there still room for growth?Lately, many altcoins have risen above important resistance levels and gained a lot. So, a key question pops up: Can they still grow more? I believe so, and the chart shows why. Looking at the chart, after hitting a low in 2022, Total2 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 stayed in a range between 432 and 674. After the second resistance touch, it found new support at 500. December started with a breakthrough above resistance, and now we are at 750 B. With people feeling optimistic about the crypto market again, the most likely scenario is more growth. As seen in the chart, the next big challenge is around 1 T, which is about 40% higher from where we are now. To sum it up, the smart move seems to be buying altcoins when their prices drop (during corrections), especially near support levels. This way, you're in a good position for potential gains, going with the current market trends.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by Mihai_Iacob
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