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MARKETS week ahead: September 11 – 17Last week in the news Another losing week on the equity markets and another flat one on the crypto market. This week was marked by surging commodities prices, which left its mark on the market sentiment. The further inflation fears are again active, as Saudi Arabia announced oil production cuts, while gas prices surged by 10% in the EU due to union strike in the largest gas production facility in Australia. SPX is ending the week below 4.500 level, BTC continues to hold above 25K support line, while ETH manages to stay above $1.6K. The previous week put commodities back to the spotlight of the markets. Namely, it started with an announcement of Saudi Arabia that the country will extend its 1 million barrel daily voluntary oil production cut. Decrease in production will last at least till the end of this year, and will be reviewed on a monthly basis. Few other OPEC nations will also join Saudi Arabia with their cuts in production till the end of this year, which is a silent agreement outside the OPEC+ agreement. Highest Brent crude oil price reached was $90/barrel after the news was announced. Such a news was also perceived negatively across markets, considering that it puts into jeopardize efforts of western countries officials to fight inflation. Further increase in oil prices might imply higher inflation and probably more rate increases in the future. At the same time with the surge of the oil prices on the markets, came the news that gas prices in the EU jumped by 10% due to the strike in the major LNG facilities in Australia. The unions are currently in negotiations with the US energy company Chevron over jobs and salary conditions. It is expected for decreased gas production to be prolonged during the week until the agreement is made between the company and the work union. The EU economy is struggling with both inflation and decreased economic output, in which sense, increased gas prices during the winter period might further hurt the EU economy. In light of the dozens of filings with SEC for the first spot BTC ETF, during the previous week ARK Invest and the crypto investment firm 21Shares filed for the SEC`s approval for the first spot ETH exchange traded fund. This filing counts among the first ones with the aim to invest in ETH instead of BTC. Although SEC recently postponed its decision on BTC ETF`s for October this year, the decision of Ark Investment to file for ETH ETF was supported by the Grayscale`s win of a lawsuit against SEC after SEC refused to provide green light to Grayscale for a conversion of its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF. Reuters is reporting that HongKong digital asset financial services firm HashKey Capital will invest $100 million of its funds into altcoins. BTC will take less than half of these funds, while ETH and two other altcoins will take the rest of the funds. A decision was also supported by Hong Kong`s clear regulation on digital assets, putting it as a world`s leading crypto hub. Crypto market cap Previous week was the one with commodities in focus, while other market events were more or less put aside. The increasing oil prices caused by Saudi Arabia's announcement of continuation in decreased oil output at least till the end of this year, impacted the oil prices to go as high as $90/barrel. This news was not well perceived by financial markets as expectations on further increase in inflation emerged. If the oil market does not calm down in the coming period, it might imply further rate increases by central banks in order to fight inflation. Regardless of developments on the oil market, and investors’ concerns, the crypto market slowed down further during the previous week, losing modest 1% on a weekly basis or $7B in nominal value. Currently this market is set to react to any news related to SEC`s moves on BTC and ETH ETF`s applications which might impact further flat moves in the coming period. Daily trading volumes reached their lowest levels since December last year, moving around $28B on a daily basis. This is also a significant drop from $60B traded during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at level of 35%, where it has added total $267B to the market cap. During the previous week the crypto market was performing in a mixed manner. Major coins were on a losing track, while several altcoins performed relatively good on a weekly basis. BTC lost $3.2B in market value or 0.65%, while ETH was down by 1% with a loss of $2B in its market cap. XRP was another coin with a drop in value of 3.5% or almost $1B. In a relative terms, other altcoins which finished the week in red were ADA with a drop in value of almost 2%, Litecoin was down by almost 3%, Polkadot decreased its value by 5%, while Uniswap was down by 5.3%. On the opposite side were several altcoins with relatively good performance, like Maker, which was up by around 10%, Miota was winner of the week with an increase in value by 19.5%, OMG surged by 6.6% , while LINK and Dash were up by more than 3%. It seems that some funds flows occurred from major coins toward the several altcoins during the previous week. There has been some increased activity when it comes to the coins in circulation. For the first time in many months, BTC has increased its circulating coins by 0.1% w/w. Solana and Filecoin had an increase in coins in circulation by 0.7% both, while Monero managed to add even 3.3% to its total circulating coins. Such activity in new coins on the market has not been recently seen, especially taking into account significantly decreased daily trading volumes on the crypto market. Crypto futures market The crypto futures continued their downtrend for the third week in a row. Both BTC and ETH futures finished third week in red on the CME. BTC short term futures were trading around 1.5% lower from the week before, while the long term ones were down by 0.7% on average. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded down by 2.13% w/w ending the week at price of $26.420, while those maturing in December next year were traded down by 0.7% and closed the week at price $28.940. This was a drop from the $ 29K level, traded during the week before. ETH futures performed in a similar manner. Short term futures were down by 1.6% on average, while long term ones were down by almost 1% on a weekly basis. December 2023 was down by 1.7% and ended the week at price $1.665, while December 2024 was down by 0.95% with a closing price of $1.776. This was a further decrease from the $1.8K level for ETH. At this moment expectations of the market for both BTC and ETH are not positive.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
An incoming last correction wave for #altcoins #total3 presents #altcoins ' market cap excluding #btc and #eth . After the 1st long correction wave, the chart formed falling channel. This formation will be completed with the 3rd correction wave and the dip of the channel will occur. When Elliott' s 123 correction wave is finished, the falling channel will turn bullish. This may be after the halving. 3rd wave seems to plunge altcoins' average by min. %30. Be careful till Q2 2024. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Dyor.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Short
by naphyse
MARKETS week ahead: August 21 – 27Last week in the news China is evidently slowing down, while Fed's meeting minutes revealed the possibility for interest rates to move even higher from currently expected levels. Negative sentiment continues to prevail on financial markets. Both EU and US equities continued their negative trend for the third week in a row, while US Treasuries continue to rise. Bitcoin had the worst week since May this year, followed by other crypto coins. Markets are clearly revisiting their optimism from the beginning of this year. China's housing market is passing through difficult times. During the previous week markets were hit by a series of negative news related to some Chinese big players within this industry. One of the largest real estate companies, Country Garden, defaulted on its bond payments on Monday. On the other side, by far the largest real estate company in China, Evergrande, registered in the US, filed for protection under the bankruptcy law in the US. The company was previously in trouble, trying to save the business through restructuring, but it failed to find supporting funds for that mission. Further destiny of the company is currently unknown. Another important event which made an impact on market sentiment was a release of FOMC meeting minutes from its meeting held in July. One of the concerns expressed at this meeting was the possibility that more rate hikes will be necessary in the future period in order to fight inflation. Several FOMC members were concerned that a tight job market could support further increase in inflation, which would require more rate hikes. Markets were holding to previous Fed Chair Powell's statement over possible two rate hikes till the end of this year. Since the Fed increased rates in July, markets were expecting another one in September through December. However, minutes revealed something on which markets were not prepared, and that is the possibility for further rate hikes, which made them reassess their economic growth prospectus for the next year. Minutes mentioned another important topic, which is related to FOMC members' concern over the issues in commercial real estate and problems which they can cause to some banks and financial institutions. The market reaction was that both the equities and crypto market lost in value during the week, while Treasury yields surged. Coinbase announced that the company gained the regulatory approval from National Futures Association to offer crypto future products to US customers. The company also noted that it filed an application for this product in 2021. This approval refers to only federally regulated futures. News was perceived positively by the markets, as shares of Coinbase gained 5% after the announcement. Although CBDC`s are still not officially launched, many companies are preparing for this moment, and trying to create full ecosystems around CBDC`s. One of the world’s largest payment and cards companies, Mastercard, organized a forum related to this topic, including some of the well-known names from the crypto industry, including Ripple, Fireblocks and Consensys. At this moment, their program partnership includes only discussions on innovation drives and efficiencies, however, it could be easily expanded in the future. Crypto market cap Final break to the downside occurred on the crypto market during the previous week. There are two major reasons which supported negative market sentiment. On the one side are published FOMC meeting minutes which revealed concerns of some FOMC members that more rate hikes will be necessary in the coming months / year in order to cope with inflation. There is also expressed concern over issues in commercial real estate which can bring potential negative consequences to some banks and financial institutions. At the same time, China's real estate market exposed some huge concerns, when big real estate company Country Garden defaulted on part of its bond payments, while the biggest player in this field, company Evergrande, filed for protection under the US bankruptcy law. Economists called such developments “a perfect storm” for financial markets. Not only that crypto market lost a significant portion of its value within a week, but was also followed by US equity markets. Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the week by 9%, losing a total $107B. Daily trading volumes almost doubled during the week, trading around $65B on a daily basis, from $35B during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 36%, where it has added total $273B to the market cap. All coins lost during the previous week, however, drop in value of $107B on a weekly basis was driven by major coins, which participated with 89% in this drop. BTC lost FWB:68B or around 12% on a weekly basis, and was followed by ETH, with a drop of $23B or more than 10%. XRP was another coin with a significant drop in value of $6.6B or less than 20%. BNB was down by almost $4B or 10.6%. DOGE decreased its value by 17% or $1.8B in nominal amounts. Both ADA and SOL dropped around $1B losing 9.8% and 11.5% in value respectively. Majority of all other altcoins lost between 10% and 20% in value. As for coins in circulation, Tether managed to lose 0.7% circulating coins in a single week, which is not recently seen on the market. At the same time, Solana increased its circulating coins by 0.4%. Crypto futures market Negative news and investor’s sentiment left its mark also on the crypto futures market. As per Coinglass data, around $1B loss in liquidations of long positions were wiped out from this market. It was one of the worst sell-offs of the year. Short term BTC futures ended the week around 11% lower from the week before, while ETH futures dropped by more than 10%. On a positive side is that longer term futures suffered a lower drop in prices. BTC long term futures were down by more than 5%. Futures maturing in December this year ended the Friday`s trading session at level of $26.900, while those maturing in December next year were last traded at price $31.275. On a positive side is that December next year is still holding above $30K level. ETH long term futures dropped more than 6%, with December 2023 ending the week at price $1.778. Futures maturing in December 2024 dropped below $2K level where they were managing to hold for a few weeks. Last price for those futures was $1.890.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Crypto Growth: Inverse Head and Shoulders PatternsBullish Signals for BTC and ETH: Inverse Head and Shoulders Patterns Emerge with Promising Targets" Bitcoin (BTC) is showing positive signs today, as an inverse head and shoulders pattern emerges. The successful rebound from the 29,500 USD resistance level indicates a robust pattern in full swing, with a technical target set at approximately 30,630 USD. Excitingly, Ethereum (ETH) is also revealing a similar pattern on its chart, suggesting a potential boost for ETH in the short term. This bullish setup indicates favorable price movements for both BTC and ETH, presenting enticing opportunities for traders and investors. The target for the inverse head and shoulders pattern in ETH is expected to be around the 1954 mark. Moreover, the total crypto market cap is also exhibiting a similar setup and appears to be heading towards 1.2 trillion USD. The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, adding to the excitement and potential for further gains.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by VanRojasCapital
MARKETS week ahead: June 12 – 18Last week in the news It was quite a stressful week for the crypto market, as the SEC continued with its effort to put crypto business in the US under “regulation”. On the other hand, US equity markets continue with gains during the last month, with S&P 500 moving above 4.300 points. Bitcoin is ending the week modestly above $25.5K, while Ether manages to hold above $1.7K. Previous week started with bad news for the crypto market. Both Binance and Coinbase were sued by the SEC alleging unregistered business aside from a few other regulatory topics. As officially published on SEC`s website, the SEC filed 13 charges against Binance entities and its founder Changpeng Zhao. As noted, charges include “operating unregistered exchanges, broker-dealers, and clearing agencies; misrepresenting trading controls and oversight on the Binance.US platform; and the unregistered offer and sale of securities''. As for the lawsuit against Coinbase, SEC has officially published that the company is alleged for “unregistered offer and sale of securities in connection with its staking-as-a-service program”. Another issue is that SEC named at least 13 coins which they defined as “crypto asset securities' ', including Solana token, Cardano`s token ADA, Polygon`s MATIC and Protocol Lab`s Filecoin. Robinhood exchanger immediately took an action delisting all coins named in the SEC lawsuit. Market reaction was that altcoins crashed during the week. Still, BTC and ETH have not been significantly affected. All these companies made a statement during the week, strongly disagreeing with the SEC that these tokens are securities. On the other side, many analysts and investors are noting that this is all a result of lack of clear regulation in the US for crypto businesses. There are also those who find SEC lawsuits as positive for crypto, as they will finally bring some clarity into regulation. After the lawsuit from the SEC, Binance.US made an announcement that from June 13th they will be transitioning to all-crypto exchange, in which sense, they will no longer support deposits in USD, including USD-based trading pairs. All products currently offered will be available but only in crypto currencies. Markets in the US were generally supported by the recent debt-ceiling deal, and recent jobs data, where the US economy showed high resilience to the current macroeconomic environment and monetary measures imposed by the Fed. The US equity market indices were up to their highest level since August last year. However, not all economists are of the same opinion regarding resilience of the US economy. In an interview with CNBC, Bob Michele, Chief investment officer in JPMorgan Chase, noted that the previous recession in 1980 started after an average 13 months after the Fed`s final rate increase, and that current economic situation reminds him of that period. He also noted that industries which will suffer the most are “regional banks, commercial real estate and junk-rated corporate borrowers”. During the week ahead the inflation data will be released, and a FOMC meeting will be held, where potential for further rate increases will be discussed. Crypto market cap For one more time in the history of the crypto market, regulators were the ones to completely spoil a good game. Monday started with negative news about a new lawsuit from SEC against Binance, while already the following day another lawsuit emerged against Coinbase, one of the largest and also publicly listed crypto exchangers. Someone might say, there is nothing new with SEC, still, this time lawsuits were different and imposed significant market reaction. Namely, within the lawsuits SEC named at least 13 altcoins, treating them as the crypto asset securities. Some of the names mentioned include Polygon (MATIC), Sandbox (SAND), Filecoin (FIL), Axie Infinity (AXS), Chiliz (CHZ), Flow (FLOW), Internet Computer (ICP), Near (NEAR), Voyager (VGX), Dash (DASH) and Nexo (NEXO). This imposed significant run-off from these assets and also forced liquidations in margined open positions, pushing the prices further to the downside. Considering the circumstances, BTC, ETH and XRP were among rare coins which had a relatively good week, with a decrease in price below 9%. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 9% w/w, losing FWB:98B in total value. Daily trading volumes doubled from a week before, moving around $85B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year decreased to 33%, where it has added a total $253B to the market cap. It was quite a bad week for altcoins, which lost a significant portion of their previous value. Major coins, excluding BNB, lost less than 10%, which might be treated as positive considering general circumstances. BTC lost some 5.8% w/w, erasing almost FWB:31B in its total value. ETH was down by 8.3%, losing $19B in total market cap. XRP was also on the downside, with total cap decrease of almost 6% or $1.6B. BNB was strongly affected by the negative news, and lost more than 23% in value or $11B. ADA was mentioned in the SEC lawsuit, so its value dropped by more than 32%, loosing $4B in market cap. In this group belongs Filecoin, which was down by 31% , Polygon dropped by 37.6% w/w, while DASH was down by 31%. Majority of all other altcoins were down between 15% and 26%. The only coin which gained in value is Tether, with an increase in circulating coins by 0.26% w/w. As for other coins, there has been some increased circulation by 0.2% for Stellar and Polkadot, while Solana and Filecoin increased their circulating coins by 0.3% w/w. Crypto futures market Regardless of general negative news on the market, the BTC and ETH futures were holding relatively good during the week. However, it should be considered that CME is closed during weekends, so Saturday trading sessions on the spot market still have not been priced by futures on the organized market. BTC short term futures were closed on Friday less than 3% lower from the week before. December 2023 was traded at a 0.98% lower price from the week before, at level of $27.355. Futures maturing in December next year were down by 1.34% w/w, and were closed at a price of $27.990. ETH short term futures were traded down by some 3.6%, while futures maturing in December this year ended the week flat, with the latest price of $1.889. Longer term ETH futures were down by some 1.2%, with December 2024 ending the week at level of $1.919.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: June 5 – 10Last week in the news The debt-ceiling saga is over, as expected, which was perceived positively by markets. Now the focus is back on the question whether the FED will raise interest rates in June or it will leave the decision for July`s meeting. Both EU and US equity markets were closed in green on Friday, which was one of the best trading days since January this year. At the same time, the crypto market was traded relatively flat, with Bitcoin ending the week modestly above FWB:27K , and Ether is struggling to sustain $1.9K. The US President Joe Biden addressed the public on Friday, noting that he will sign the debt-ceiling bill on Saturday in order to avoid “economic crisis and an economic collapse”. The bill was adopted by the US Senate on Thursday, coming only a few days before the so-called X-day, which was set by the US Treasury for June 5th. Markets re-gained optimism after the news regarding the resolution of the debt-ceiling negotiations, and swiftly switched attention to some old topics. Nonfarm payrolls grew in May by 339K, more than the market estimate of 190K. The employment data in the US are continuing to be strong despite the monetary measures taken by the FED during the previous period. At the same time, data for May show that the average hourly earnings rose less than estimated by the markets, while the unemployment rate reached 3.7% in May, from 3.5% previously. Analysts put into question whether the FED will continue to hike interest rates in June. Still, even if they pause during the next FOMC meeting, there is some probability that they will continue with rate hikes in July. According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 61% of economists are expecting a recession to occur within the next 12 months. At the same time, 93% of the corporate CEOs are preparing for the forthcoming recession within a period of 12 to 18 months, as per a recent survey. Such expectations however, do not collide with current macroeconomic data in the US, where the jobs market and business earnings show strong resilience. Oil producers gathered around OPEC+ will meet on June 4th in Vienna. They will discuss topics related to further oil production policy. The supply-demand for oil has been pretty volatile during the previous period, where one of the OPEC+ measures was to cut the output by 2 million barrels per day in April. As per some unconfirmed news, the decreased output might continue due to lower demand from China. The Wall Street Journal is reporting claims from the Apple customers on their struggle to withdraw their funds from Apple Savings accounts, especially amounts higher from $100K. As reported, the money has been withheld by Goldman Sachs in order to pass anti money laundering procedures. Many argue that such a practice is absurd considering that Apple Savings account is a new product and that all funds were transferred from traditional banking accounts. Crypto market cap The debt-ceiling deal has been accomplished and the US Senate approved it during the previous week. The US President Biden officially signed the document on Saturday, which relieved markets from fears over potential US default on its obligations, set for June 5th. The markets perceived positively such a development and swiftly turned to some quite old topics related to the further US monetary policy moves. Currently, the main question is related to whether the FOMC will decide to increase interest rates by 25 bps during the June or July meeting. The latest job figures show that the job market is still strong, but wages increases slowed down as well as inflation data. This supported the opinion of some analysts that the Fed might skip June rate increases and leave it for the July meeting. Although equities continue to gain, both in the US and EU, still the crypto market is lagging behind, with a third flat week in a row. Total crypto market capitalization was modestly increased during the previous week by 2%, adding $24B to total cap. Major coins on the market participated with 80% in this increase. Daily trading volumes remained decreased but steady around SGX:40B on a daily basis. Market is at this moment certainly on a road of exhaustion, waiting for a clear signal in order to move to one side. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at 46%, where it has added a total $351B to the market cap. The major coins on the market participated by 80% in the total crypto market capitalization increase during the previous week, while altcoins were traded in a mixed manner. Bitcoin was leading the market, adding MUN:10B to its market cap or almost 2% compared to the previous week. Ether followed BTC with an increase of almost 4% or $8.7B. XPR also had a good week, as a reaction on new Securities Clarity Act, presented in the US Congress, increasing its market cap by 10.6% or $2.6B. Some of coins which finished the week in green in a relative terms were Filecoin, with a surge in value of 10.6% w/w, Litecoin was up by 10%, while Tron and Maker were both up by 6.5%. Few coins were traded in red during the week, like Monero, which was down by 2.5% w/w, Theta lost 1.1%, while Polygon was down by around 2% w/w. As for coins in circulation, there has not been significant changes compared to the week before, where Solana, Polkadot, Filecoin and Stellar gained by 0.2% new circulating coins during the week. Crypto futures market Positive sentiment from the spot market was also reflected in the futures prices. Both BTC and ETH futures gained during the week, but ETH outperformed BTC in a relative term. BTC`s both short- and long-term futures gained around 1.5% on average. Futures maturing in December this year were lastly traded 1.17% higher from the week before, finishing the week at a price of $27.625. Futures maturing in December next year were up by 1.5% w/w and ended the week at price of $28.370, and finally above $28K. ETH short term futures were up by almost 4% on a weekly basis. Longer term futures surged by some 3.5% on average, with December 2023 last traded at price of $1.896 and December 2024 at price $1.943. This represents an improvement from the week before, as prices managed to move above $1.9K after three weeks traded below this level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO MARKET CAP is completing an IH&S and set a 2.18T target.The Crypto Total Market Cap (TOTAL) has broken above its Bear Cycle Falling Wedge since March and is now about to complete the Right Shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern whose Head priced the bottom. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is the Support since March while the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) the Resistance since May 2022. Standard IH&S patterns go for a 2.0 Fibonacci extension and as you see that falls almost exactly on the 2.17T Resistance (March 28 2022 High). That's at 2.18T and it is our long-term target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by TradingShot
1
DEATH OF THE DOLLARDear Friend,    “Wake up you guys. If you're saving US dollars, you're like the skipper on the titanic. You know they're going to have to print more and more and more and more all the time… This makes savers the biggest losers on planet earth.”   But here is what is fascinating… I know you will agree.   As the dollar gets weaker and weaker, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are getting stronger and stronger.    I’m going to say that again because it is so important. As the dollar gets weaker and weaker, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are getting stronger and stronger.    The giant hedge funds and investing firms are slowing their purchase of dollars and U.S. bonds...   They are now using their profits to buy cryptocurrencies.   The Wallstreet Journal reports that mainstream hedge funds are pouring BILLIONS of dollars into crypto. They go on to say that world famous traders including Alan Howard and Paul Tudor Jones are said to be increasing their trading in cryptocurrencies.If you want to become a successful investor, extra cash to pay off your debt, enjoy extra time with your loved ones, live your dream life…   Thank you for taking the time to read my letter,
TVC:DXY
by mehdi_kb
2
MARKETS week ahead: May 28 – June 3Last week in the news The saga over US debt-ceiling continues to be number one topic among investors and financial markets. During the previous week both EU and US equity markets gained on a possibility that the deal could be soon reached. On the other hand, the crypto market continues to trade in a relatively calm mood, for the second week in a row. Bitcoin is ending the week above $26.5K, and Ether above $1.8K. The debt-ceiling talks are still in the spotlight of investors, and a question of what sort of the deal will be accomplished. As per House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, some progress has been made, but more progress is needed in order to accomplish the deal. News reported on a possibility for the debt-ceiling to be raised for a period of two years. At the same time, the US Treasury Secretary warned on Friday that the US Treasury will be able to serve its obligations until June 5th, which is now treated as a new “X date”. As announced on Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 0.4% compared to the previous month, and 4.7% on a yearly basis. Considering that results were higher from market expectation, markets are now pricing a 25 bps increase of interest rates at the FOMC meeting in June. The German economy officially entered into technical recession as of the end of the previous year. Officially published data on German GDP show a negative trend for the last two quarters, which pushed the largest EU economy into recession. Economists are of the opinion that the trend of falling GDP should not continue during the course of this year, however, there are no expectations that GDP will grow, either. The National bank of Norway in its report noted that the regulation around crypto assets should be further developed. They commented on recently adopted MiCA regulation within the EU, which should get into force soon, and expressed the opinion that the national bank should react sooner than to wait for internationally accepted regulation. This comes especially taking into account collapses of stablecoins, like Terra, and largest crypto exchanger FTX. Cathie Wood, founder of the investment firm ARK Invest, commented at the Fortune`s Next Gen conference that the US is currently losing the battle within the crypto world, due to lack of a clear regulatory framework. The businesses around digital assets are moving away from the US, as Coinbase (COIN) received a license to operate in Bermuda and is looking for a way to further expand in Singapore. South Africa is another country in line, which has introduced a law on regulating crypto business. Starting from 1st June all companies that conduct business within the area of the digital assets, need to hold a regular license from the country's Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA). Such a move was generally perceived as a positive by local companies dealing with crypto assets. Crypto market cap The so-called X-date is now set for June 5th, at least per latest statements from Treasury Secretary Yellen. The negotiations are still taking place, while House Speaker Kevin McCarthy noted that some progress has been made but more progress is needed. This was enough for financial markets to enter again in a positive mood and trade accordingly. Although the equity markets gained on this glimpse of a potential deal in the coming period, still the crypto market continues to be in a calm phase. Investors are here on hold, waiting to see the final outcome of the debt-deal in order to position within the crypto market. For the second week in a row total market capitalization remained relatively flat. During the previous week, total market cap was decreased by modest $8B or 1%. There has been almost equal number of coins which gained and lost in value during the week. Daily trading volumes continue to be decreased, still moving around SGX:40B on a daily basis. Market is on a road of exhaustion, waiting for a specific signal in order to be back on the old road. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year remained flat at 43%, where it has added a total $327B to the market cap. Previous week was one of the rare weeks on the crypto market when there had been almost equal numbers of winning and losing coins. However, both gains and losses were in a relatively lower range. Considering that overall volume of market cap remained relatively flat, it seems that currently there is more of a repackaging of current portfolios, rather than actual flow on or from crypto market. Bitcoin lost almost $4B in market value, which represents 0.7% of its total value. Ether remained flat with a small gain of 0.4% during the week, while BNB had a modest drop of $0.7B or 1.4%. Coins which gained the most during the week in a relative terms were NEO, surging more than 10% and was followed by Miota, with a gain of 8% in the market value within a single week. Tron also had a good week, with a gain in value of 7.6%, as well as Polygon, who surged by 5.5% w/w. On a losing side were Algorand, who dropped by 9.2%, while Uniswap was down by 5.2% w/w. As for coins in circulation, XRP continues to gain since the start of this year, adding 0.2% new coins during the previous week. Tether increased its coins in circulation by 0.3%, while Filecoin`s circulating coins were up by 0.2% during the previous week. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market was also traded in a relatively calm mode during the previous week. Short term BTC futures were down by some 0.6% on average, while ETH futures only modestly gained during the week, of some 1.5% on average. Longer term BTC futures had a higher drop from short term ones, of some 1.3%. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price of $27.305, which was 1.03% lower from the week before, while those maturing in December 2024 were down by 1.17% w/w, ending the week at price of $27.950. ETH longer term futures were traded a bit higher, around 0.6% w/w. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price of $1.834, while those maturing in December next year were closed at price $1.881. Range of prices for both coins between short and longer futures remains to be very tight. This indicates that markets are still perceiving future prices of both coins in the light of a potential recession in the US and tighter monetary conditions, from which the crypto market will not benefit.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
#CryptoMarketCap Analysis #Crypto $BTCTraders and Investors, Let's talk about the crypto market. There has been a lot of discussion lately about each and every little move that Bitcoin makes. A little move up sends bullish sentiments and over-the-moon projections across social media. Whereas a downward move creates despair. 🙂 This has been going on for weeks and months. So let's see what has been happening to the crypto market overall. 1. Crypto market capitalization reached an all-time high of approximately around 3 Trillion 2. As with all hype, what goes up must come down, it took a massive correction finally. 3. This created a major M pattern on the weekly/monthly time frames which is quite evident. In fact, there are 2 M patterns. 4. Once the M pattern completes, the market goes up so it started bouncing up. 5. It reached its one target exactly at 23.6 Fibonacci 6. It then took a correction again from there which was quite understandable and expected 7. Now this is simply consolidating in a range which has its mid-set at 1 Trillion market cap. This can keep going on for a long time and is a common behaviour after a huge move followed by a 23.6 correction. So what is next? 1. There will be a breakout from this range at some point. 2. But usually it first creates a major trap on one side and then goes to the other. 3. So wait for a move which will make nearly everyone think in one direction. This will create a major bias (general consensus) 🙂 4. Start thinking in the opposite direction unless you get a piece of solid evidence or confirmation to follow the general consensus. Remember a market can do anything. If BTC could go from 3500 to 67000 in a matter of weeks and if USOIL can go to zero then anything can happen in a market. 5. The upper breakout can take it to 1.6 market cap level 6. Lower breakout can take it to 500 billion market cap. Our bias: (Not advice or recommendation) 1. Wait for a general consensus to build up and go against it on confirmation 2. Downside is more likely at the moment but we will have to wait for further evidence. Please support this analysis by liking and sharing. 👍🙂 Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade setups, and updates on this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions, and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content of this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by vikinsa
MARKETS week ahead: May 14 – 20Last week in the news The US debt ceiling was in the focus of the markets and news during the previous week. A potential default of the US government to meet some of its obligations would have serious consequences on the US economy, and the rest of the world. At the same time, the US equities were closed lower on Friday, following weaker than expected consumer confidence data. The crypto market was also traded at lower grounds, with Bitcoin ending the week at level of $26.8K, while Ether is holding above $1.8K. During the previous week, the G-7 meeting of most developed countries in the world was held. Aside from globally elevated inflation, one of the main topics was the potential of the US to default on some of its obligations in the coming period, in case that debt ceiling is not increased. The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, noted in her statement, that we are just weeks away from the first US-debt default, but she is hopeful that some solution for this situation would eventually emerge. At the same time, the White House and congressional leaders meeting, scheduled for Friday, was postponed. The main topic of this meeting should have been the debt ceiling. The Congressional Budget Office said on Friday that increased revenues from taxes collected in June would most probably help the US Government not to default in June, but they were unable to say the same for July. The US equity markets fell on Friday, after reporting weaker than expected consumer sentiment results. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment fell to the level of 57.7, which is the lowest level of this indicator for the last six months. Adding to it the news about potential US debt default, it increased markets fears over forthcoming recession in the US. Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges, announced that the company will cease operations in Canada, amid a “challenging” regulatory environment. The company tweeted that “new guidance related to stablecoins and investor limits” in Canada are not anymore “tenable” for this exchanger. The main issue with these new regulations is that purchase or deposits in stablecoins would require prior CSA`s approval, which requires taught due-diligence checks. The Ethereum network experienced an outage on Thursday, when transactions could not be confirmed for 25 minutes. There was a high risk for users of the chain to be altered due to this malfunction. Although developers are investigating the cause of this outage, still, no official information has been provided. Coindesk is reporting that House Democrats are considering issuing a bill on stablecoins, which seems to differ from the one that Republicans are in process of drafting. The Democrats are of the opinion that the Federal Reserve should have a power of veto when it comes to the registration of stablecoins and that special attention should be paid on protection of consumers. Crypto market cap The crypto market continued with a correction trend during the previous week. Although there is a lot of doubt among investors over potential US debt default and decreased consumer sentiment, which supports fears over potential recession in the coming period, still, at this moment there is actually nothing which could support the crypto market. The pull-out of bank deposits decreased during the last few weeks, and obviously, at this moment, these deposits are not ending in the crypto market. Charts were pointing to this correction, so the market needs to exhaust itself, before it starts a new round to the upside. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 6% or FWB:70B during the previous week. Around 80% of this drop was led by the major coins on the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization continues to hold modestly above $1 trillion. Daily trading volumes were also down, from $72B a two weeks before to $56B on daily basis during the previous week. This might be a positive indicator that the market is slowly drying the latest move to the downside. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year modestly dropped to 44%, where it has added a total $330B to the market cap. A drop in crypto market cap during the previous week was led by major coins on the market. BTC, ETH and BNB participate with 80% in a market cap drop of $70B. BTC, the major coin lost around 7.5% in market cap, erasing $42B from its value. ETH followed with a lower drop of 4% on a weekly basis or more than $9B. BNB also took a downside, with a drop in value of 4.5% or $2.3B. XRP was another coin with a drop in value above $1B, where it has lost $1.7B or 7.5% on a weekly basis. It was interesting that Polygon was also among coins with a large drop in value in nominal terms, since it lost $1.2B or 13.6% in the market cap. This is not usually seen in nominal terms. Coins with some of the largest drops in relative terms were OMG Network, with a drop in value of 28.5% w/w, Filecoin was down by 15%, EOS decreased its value by 12% and DASH by almost 12%. The only coin which gained during the week was Tether, which increased value of circulating coins by 0.9%. There has been also developments with increased number of circulating coins of Ether by 2.1% w/w. Crypto futures market Developments from the spot market were also reflected on the prices of the crypto futures. BTC short term futures were closed at Friday`s trading at prices which were lower by 11% from the end of the previous week. At the same time, lower drop was with longer-term futures, which were down by more than 7% w/w. The price of futures maturing in December this year was closed at FWB:27K , while those maturing in December next year were closed at $28.3K. ETH short term futures were trading by almost 11% lower from the week before, while longer ones were down by almost 5% w/w. ETH futures maturing in December 2023 were closed on Friday at price of $1.807, while those maturing a year later were closed at price of $1.858.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
CRYPTO week ahead: May 7 – 13Last week in the news Previous week was marked with both FED`s and ECB`s further increase of interest rates, while fears of potential failures of the US banks continued to be the main topic among analysts and investors. The US equity market continues to be supported by posted earnings figures. Bitcoin is ending the week struggling below FWB:29K , while Ether manages to hold the $1.9K level. FED increased for one more time its benchmark interest rates by another 25 bps, bringing the funds rate to the level of 5% - 5.25%. Such a move was expected by markets. In a speech after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell gave several points on how currently FED officials are perceiving the state of the US economy. The FED still perceives the labor market as quite strong, and it points that potential recession in the coming period might be avoided. When it comes to the question of potential halt of further raise of interest rates, Powell noted that further rate hikes will depend on the developments in the US economy, and the question will be addressed on each FOMC meeting, but any kind of a general decision on a pause on hikes has not been made on the meeting. At the same time, he noted that it is too soon to discuss any potential rate cut. During the previous week, JPMorgan acquired troubled First Republic bank. This acquisition was also commented by the Fed Chair Powell, on a press conference, when he called it an “exception” as from the policy point of view, it is not good when “largest banks doing big acquisitions”. As news is reporting, there is again a new push of a meme-mania on the market. It is supported by the creation of a new token, a SpongeBob (SPONGE). The new coin was released on Thursday and during the first few days of trading, its price has increased by an incredible 600%. At the same time, Pepecoin (PEPE) surged by more than 120% within the last 24 hours. Analysts are noting that this newly emerged meme-mania is strongly supporting the price of ETH, however, less coins are in circulation since more ETH`s is burned in order to support memes. After posting better than estimated earnings for the first quarter, shares of the Coinbase (COIN) surged by 17%. Analysts perceive it as a positive sign that the crypto is gaining back its ground, however, they are noting challenges coming from an uncertain regulatory environment when the crypto industry is in question. Coindesk is reporting that French BNP Paribas (BNP) will enable their clients in China functionality to link their digital Yuan, or e-CNY, wallets to their bank accounts held with this bank. The connection will be established through the Bank of China`s system, which is one of the eight banks authorized for this type of operation. Crypto market cap Major news during the previous week was FED`s further rate increase by 25 bps. Fed Chair Powell held a conference after the FOMC meeting, revealing a few important topics, which are currently preoccupying the market. First note is related to market expectations that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in order to avoid further banking collapses in the US. Powell noted that such a move should not be expected in the coming period. Secondly, he noted that macroeconomic conditions will be reviewed at every FOMC meeting, based on which the decision will be made whether the Fed will halt further interest rate increases. His rhetoric is signaling to the market that there is still some potential for further hikes, but at least, there is some indication that the Fed might be peaking with rates soon. Since their target is inflation of 2%, it should not be expected that rate hikes will be stopped just for the sake of the banking industry. JPMorgan acquired last week troubling First Republic bank, however, the list of US banks with problems is large, so more acquisitions are quite possible in the future. Total crypto market capitalization was modestly decreased on a weekly basis, by 1%, where a total $9B was wiped from the market. Coins were traded in a mixed manner. Daily trading volumes remained flat during the week, around $72B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 53%, where it has added a total $400B to the market cap. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by $9B during the week, out of which $4.8B was driven by decrease in value of BTC on a weekly basis. BTC modestly dropped by 0.85% w/w. ETH remained relatively flat, but in a positive territory, supported by the new meme-mania on the market. XRP had a modest drop in value, of some 3.7%, where the coin lost less than $1B in total cap. In a relative terms, some of coins with the highest drop in price during the week were DASH with a drop of 10.5% w/w, NEO was down by 6.6%, Bitcoin Gold lost around 8% and Filecoin with a drop in value of 6.5%. On the other side, coins which managed to end the week in green were Tether, with an increase in cap by 0.7%, Monero added also 0.7% in value to its market cap and Tron, which surged by almost 5% w/w. Changes in circulating coins continue to be higher than they usually are. Solana, Polkadot and Filecoin increased their circulating coins by 0.3% each compared to the previous week, while Algorand had a decrease of 0.2%, and Tron dropped by 0.1%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures ended the Friday trading in a mixed manner. While short term futures were up by 1% for BTC and more than 5% for ETH, still long-term futures were traded with a drop in prices from the week before. BTC long term futures were down by some 3% on average, where futures with maturities in December this year ended the week at price $29.685. Futures ending in December next year are still holding above $30K level, ending the week at a price of $30.560. ETH futures ending in December this year were traded by 2.56% lower from the week before, and finished the week at level of $1.900. Futures maturing in December next year were down by 2.35% on a weekly basis, ending the week at price $1.954. ETH`s futures curve continues to be inverted, revealing market expectations for the price of this coin in the coming period.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: April 30 – May 6Last week in the news Another week marked with potential failure of the banks in the US. The First Republic Bank was for one more time in the news as its share price significantly dropped in value during the previous week. For one more time, the crypto market has been supported by insecurity of depositors in the banking sector. On other hand, equities gained on earnings reports. Bitcoin is finishing the week modestly below $30K, Ether is holding above $1.9K. Situation with the First Republic Bank is not improving. The bank went into problems during the same period when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed, but managed to survive the first wave of troubles in the banking sector. Management of the bank managed to buy some time to restructure the bank and put it into recovery. However, as per news from the previous week, it seems that this will not be the case. Share price of the bank dropped by 43% on Friday, as the news spread that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation would most probably have to step in. Since the beginning of this year, shares of the bank dropped by 97%. This news once again supported the crypto market, bringing BTC back to $30K level. Crypto industry requires clear guidance from regulators, however, SEC Chair Gansler noted that current regulation is sufficient and that the industry needs to comply with it. Coinbase (COIN) was the first company to fight for this guidance through court. Namely, the company used U.S. Circuit Court to pressure SEC to answer with simple “yes or no“ to the company`s petition from July last year, when they officially asked SEC to “propose and adopt rules to govern the regulation of securities that are offered and traded via digitally native methods”. The SEC did not make any comments on Coinbase's petition. The Blockchain Association CEO, Kristin Smith, commented on the current state of developments as “absolute war” between crypto industry and US regulators. Regardless of regulators' view, the mainstream industries are continuing to incorporate crypto currencies and wallets into their business. Mastercard announced the launch of verification standards for cross-border transactions, called Mastercard Crypto Credential. These set of credentials will allow compliance with the Financial Action Task Force`s travel rules. At the same time, PayPal announced that the company will enable on-chain transfers from Venmo wallets, from May this year. Ripple announced its XRP Markets Report, noting that the company sold HKEX:361 million worth of XRP tokens in Q1 this year, which is an increase from HKEX:226 million in Q4 2022. Ripple is developing its international payment network which is based on XRP token, with the aim to allow international payments excluding correspondent banking. During the forthcoming week, both ECB and FED` rate decisions are scheduled, which promise some increased market volatility. Crypto market cap Banking crisis continued in the US, with First Republic Bank currently in the spotlight. The latest news published by CNBC on Saturday is that a few big banks, including JPMorgan and Bank of America are asked to place bids for First Republic Bank. Such news is increasing the insecurity of bank depositors and, at the same time, positively impacting the price of major coins. Depositors are seeking a safer place for their funds, transferring part of their funds into crypto coins, especially Bitcoin. Similar situation we have already seen with the collapse of SVB and Signature bank, which drove the price of BTC toward the $30K. Total crypto market capitalization was increased during the previous week by 3%, adding FWB:33B in value of the market. This drive was mostly influenced by Bitcoin, which added $30B to the cap on a solo basis. At the same time, daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of $52B on a daily basis, from $71B achieved during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 54%, where it has added a total $409B to the market cap. Due to the banking crisis, BTC was the absolute winner of the previous week. The coin managed to gain $30B in value, increasing its market cap by 5.7%. BTC was followed by Ether, which managed to add $3B to its market cap, increasing it by 1.3% w/w. Other coins were traded in a mixed manner. BNB was on a losing side, decreasing its cap by $1B or 2%. Coins with good performance in relative terms were Litecoin, with an increase in cap by almost 4%, Solana gained 6%, Filecoin 3% and ZCash 3.3%. Few coins lost significantly in value during the week like OMG Network with a drop in value of 12% and Algorand who lost 8.3% in value. As for coins in circulation, there has been a relatively larger number of small changes, among which Tether continued to gain with 0.3% w/w, while Filecoin, Polygon and Polkadot gained 0.3% each in total circulating coins. Crypto futures market The price of Bitcoin continues to be supported both on the spot market and on the futures market. Banking crisis pushed the price of the BTC futures to the upside during the previous week, where short term futures were traded by almost 8% higher from the end of the week before, while futures with longer maturity closed the week by some 6% higher. Futures maturing in December 2023 were traded at price $30.5K, while those maturing in December next year ended the week at price of $31.3K. Market continues to positively perceive future prospectus of BTC price. At the same time, ETH futures were traded in a mixed mode, and without any significant change in price from the week before. Short term futures were up around 3%. Positive developments were with futures maturing in December this year, where the price managed to hold above $1.9K. Price for the futures maturing in December next year remained almost unchanged, but on a positive side is that it still holds above $2K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: April 23 – 29Last week in the news A relatively calm week on financial markets, but not for the crypto market, as it went into short term retracement during the previous week. Major negative sentiment is coming from news related to regulation of the crypto businesses both in the US and EU. Bitcoin is ending the week above FWB:27K , while Ether is still holding above $1.8K. The most important news during the previous week was final adoption of the Markets in Crypto Assets regulation, or MiCA, by the European Parliament. It represents one of the first comprehensive regulations covering crypto business in the world. The regulation requires crypto businesses to be officially registered in one of the EU member states. Companies are required to comply with risk management rules, and need to have adequate governing processes in place in order to avoid any possibility of another FTX-style collapse of the company. Rules related to stablecoins, require companies to maintain enough cash reserves in order to meet demand in times of high volatility. Although, this represents significant improvement when it comes to regulation of the crypto industry, still, this law is not covering specific cases like crypto-staking or lending. Whether US regulators will follow the EU example is to be seen. Certainly, the majority of the crypto companies in the US are calling for clear rules in order to conduct business outside of the current gray zone. During the time of the MiCA adoption, there has been a hearing in Washington, where SEC Chair Gary Gensler was under fire when it came to clarity of the crypto rules applicable in the US. However, he dismissed all accusations, noting that there is a question whether current crypto businesses want to comply with current rules, while for any sort of additional rules, this industry would have to wait for some other time. Based on his statements, it doesn’t seem that any sort of new digital-asset regulation will see the light of the day in the near future. On the other hand, several large crypto exchangers announced that they are considering moving their business overseas in order to avoid scrutiny from the SEC. There has also been news over the regulation of the crypto industry from the Bank of England. Namely, it has been noted by the CB officials on the possibility for the UK to adopt a similar law as in the EU for the digital-assets industry within next 18 months. At the same time, they commented on the possibility to put a cap on stable coins in order to avoid financial risks which these coins might have on the UK financial system, especially banking system. Recession fears are again topic number one among economists in the US. Namely, latest data show that there is a significant drop in lending activities, which would most certainly impact economic slowdown in the coming period. As a reminder, this was a prediction of several prominent economists from the beginning of this year, that potential for economic slowdown will most certainly hit the market during the second half of this year, based on which, some of them are expecting for FED to even cut interest rates. Crypto market cap There has not been much significant news on the macro data during the previous week, which is the main reason why equity markets remained relatively calm. Still, there has been a lot of news when it comes to regulation of the digital-asset businesses, both in the EU and US, which imposed a negative market reaction and short reversal to the down side. On one side, the EU Parliament adopted a so-called MiCA regulation, imposing a strict rule for the crypto business within 27 EU member states, while on the other hand, SEC Chair Gansler noted in a testimony his expectations for all crypto businesses in the US to comply with current Securities Law in the US, and that it should not be expected any kind of new regulation which would specifically address digital asset businesses. Although EU regulation was generally perceived as a positive among market practitioners, still, the market was disappointed by the standing point of SEC Chair Gensler, as it means that crypto firms in the US might face continuous scrutiny from the US regulator. This means probably more penalties and difficulties to maintain business in the US, in which sense, several large players on the US market already expressed the possibility of moving their businesses overseas. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by 8% during the previous week, losing some $104B in value. Daily trading volumes remained stable during the week, moving around $71B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 50%, where it has added a total $376B to the market cap. All coins ended the week in red, except stablecoins. Major coins were the ones which were dragging down total crypto market cap in nominal terms. Bitcoin lost $54B in value, or more than 9%. BTC was naturally followed by ETH, whose drop in value was $27B or 10.6%. XRP was another coin with a significant drop of $2.7B in value, losing more than 10% on a weekly basis. Cardano also lost $2B in its cap, which represents a drop of 12.6%. Interestingly, BNB was not in a group of significant losers, as it manages to hold its price steady, due to previous negative news surrounding Binance exchanger. During the week the coin lost only 1.1% and around $0.6B in value. In a relative term, some of the highest losers were DASH who lost around 18% in the market cap, Polygon was down by 13%, same as Filecoin. Tether continues to gain coins in circulation, adding 0.6% during the previous week. Filecoin traditionally continues with an increase of circulating coins, adding 0.5% on a weekly basis, while during the previous week Algorand also increased its coins by 0.3%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market reacted to spot market reversals with decrease of future prices. On a positive side is that prices for longer term futures dropped less than the short-term ones. BTC short term futures ended the Friday trading with a drop of more than 10%. On the other side, futures with maturity in December this year were down by 7.5%, same as futures maturing in December next year. December 2023 was lastly traded modestly below $30K. ETH short term futures were traded down by around 13%, while longer term ones dropped by more than 7% and 4% as of the end of the week. Futures maturing in December 2023 ended the week at price $1.9K, while those maturing in December next year were closed at $2K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
CRYPTO week ahead: April 17 – 23Last week in the news Inflation figures in the US are showing a decreasing trend, however, FED is still not sure whether it is time to halt further rate increases. These were the major news during the previous week which were driving the market sentiment. Both equity and crypto markets finished the week in a green zone. Bitcoin reached levels above $30K, while Ether was strongly supported by the Shanghai hard fork, ending the week above psychological $2K. The US inflation data published on Wednesday, show a further slowdown in prices in the US. As per data released, the consumer price index reached 5% y/y in March, which is a drop from 6% y/y in February this year. The drop in inflation is mainly influenced by the drop in energy and food prices, which were the main drivers of increased prices during the previous period. This was clearly a sign for the markets that the easing in FED's monetary tightening might soon come to an end. At the same time, FED is still not in the same line with markers. Namely, as per published Minutes of the FOMC meeting, it seems that the FOMC members are of opinion of potential negative repercussions of the recently fallen banks on the economy, which might trigger a mild recession during the second half of this year with potential for recovery within the next two years. Same documents revealed that FED is expecting for the US economy to slow down to 0.4% during the course of this year. A long awaited Ethereum`s Shanghai hard fork has been successfully implemented during the previous week. One of the most important features of this upgrade was to allow holders of the staked ETH free use of their coins. This upgrade strongly supported the price of Ethereum`s token, which reached psychological level of $2K. Although many crypto professionals were noting the possibility of a negative impact to ETH`s price, if the majority of holders of staked ETH start selling their coins, still, it did not happen. Based on the announcement from Twitter, this company will soon allow its users to trade stocks, cryptocurrencies and other assets from their Twitter accounts. This comes as an exclusive deal between Twitter and eToro exchanger. Dogecoin gained on this news almost 6% in value, following the still strange market relationship between Musk and DOGE. The decentralized finance exchanger Uniswap announced that the company launched a wallet which can be used on mobile phones. As per statement, this application will be used to promote DeFi`s and allow its users to buy cryptos at a flat rate of 2.55%. Crypto market cap Positive market sentiment has been supported during the previous week by weakening of US inflation data. As it has been officially published, inflation in March in the US was 5% y/y, and down from 6% y/y in February. This brought some confidence among market participants on the possibility that the FED will stop with further increase of interest rates in the coming period. Still, on the other side, released FOMC minutes are showing that FED officials are concerned over potential recession during the second half of this year, as a result of the recent banking crisis. Nevertheless, at this moment economic data remain mixed, as well as next FED monetary moves, but the market has waited for so long to get in a positive mood and bullish trend, that they are currently dismissing mixed signals. Total crypto market capitalization has increased during the previous week by 8% w/w, adding $90B to its value. BTC and ETH were the ones to gain the most in nominal figures. Daily trading volumes returned to the pre-holiday levels, trading around $79B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at 63% , where it has added a total $480B to the market cap. Major coins on the market were the ones to gain the most in nominal terms during the previous week. BTC is still the most traded coin, which gained more than 8% during the week, adding $47B to its market cap. ETH continues to gain on a Shanghai upgrade, surging by 12.5% within a single week, increasing its market cap by $28B. BNB had relatively solid week, in which the coin increased its cap by $2.7B or 5.5%, and was followed by Cardano who surged by $2.3B or 17.7%. As for other altcoins, only a few of them lost in value during the previous week.Several coins with a good performance during the week were Solana, with a surge in market cap of 20.8%, Zcash increased its cap by 11%, while Maker added more than 13% to its cap. It was one of the rare weeks, where there has been a lot of changes in circulating coins of crypto currencies. Tether continued to gain further, adding 0.92% coins w/w. At the same time BNB decreased its circulating coins by 1.3%, which is rare to see on the market. Filecoin continues to increase its coins in circulation, adding 0.9% during the week. Crypto futures market Positive market sentiment from the spot market was also reflected in the crypto futures market. BTC short term futures were traded around 9% higher from the week before. Long term futures were up by more than 8% w/w. Last trading price for futures maturing in December this year was $31.120, while December next year was closed at $32.180. The prices continue to reflect positive market sentiment for the future price developments for BTC. ETH short term futures ended the trading week around 13% higher from the week before, while long term futures were up by more than 7% w/w. Regardless of current positive market sentiment, still, the ETH futures curve took inverted shape for one more time. Namely, short term ETH futures have higher value than the longer ones. On a positive side it is that long term futures are still holding above the psychological level of $2K. ETH futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $2.049, while those maturing in December next year were traded at price $2.099.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
ETHUSDT - 3 price points that it will go to. OKX:ETHUSDT is at a daily resistance level Move 1: Price rejects resistance, moves down to 1560 to retest support zone Move 2: Price rejects resistance, moves down to 1769 to retest minor support before bouncing back up. Targeted TP at 2160 Move 3: Price breaks resistance to 1990 (Week resistance), retrace to 1933 before making its way up to final TP at 2160/ Entry Tf: 1 hour Entry style: Breakout with confirmation, or Breakout during volume period, or Breakout with news Enter after price moves. Don't predict.
by lesnermj
CRYPTO week ahead: April 10 – 16Last week in the news The markets closed higher on Friday in a wake of Easter holiday and US latest job market figures. At the same time, the crypto market slowed down, after strong resistance at levels from the last two weeks. Bitcoin is ending the week testing $28K short term resistance, Ether was supported by Shepella upgrade, which pushed the price above $1.8K. The important data was released just before the Easter holiday started on Friday. The US non-farm payrolls grew by 236K in March, which was in line with market expectations of 238K. This is also an decrease from 326K in February. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in March, from 3.6% during the previous month, which was not in line with the figure which the market was anticipating, while payrolls were increased by 0.3% in average hourly earnings, which was the lowest increase within two last years. Latest figures were perceived positively by economists, as they show that the year-long FED`s fight with inflation is finally starting to reflect in real figures. This is also pointing to the possibility of FED`s further slowdown in monetary tightening, and potential halt in raising interest rates by the end of this year. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday next week, which will add to the picture about the current state of the economy and FED`s measures. During this week Ether price was strongly supported by the news that the major upgrade called “Shepella '' will be released. The aim of this upgrade is to allow for the owners of the staked coins to withdraw them, without using centralized exchanges or DeFi protocols. After the Merge fork released in September last year, this is perceived as another important upgrade of the Ethereum network, perceived highly positively by the market. The major upgrade is scheduled to occur on April 12th, called Shanghai fork, which also might imply higher volatility of ETH`s price. Elon Musk`s and Dogecoin`s “love story” continues even after Musk`s purchase of Twitter. Namely, the price of DOGE surged by almost 30% after Elon Musk replaced the logo of the company with an image of a shiba-inu. This change was not visible for all Twitter users. Although Twitter did not comment on this short change of logo, still the analysts are commenting on the possibility that it comes in response to an ongoing lawsuit of federal agencies in the US who are accusing Musk for manipulation of DOGE price. The latest issues in the banking industry strongly supported crypto currencies, and brought stablecoins into stoplight. The USDT, largest stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, reached a market capitalization of HKEX:80 billion, surging 20% within a single week. Just as a reminder, the highest USDT capitalization was FWB:83B right before the crypto winter. India is another country which is currently in a testing phase of its central bank digital currency, or CBDC. The pilot program, which started in December, reached 100K users as of the end of March. India`s central bankers targeting 500K users in July. Crypto market cap Although both EU and US markets were closed higher on Friday, as fears of banking contingencies slow down and in the wake of Easter holiday, still, the crypto market was traded relatively flat during the previous week. Posted job figures for the US on Friday gave some confidence to investors that FED`s potential slow down with further increase of interest rates might be just around the corner. At the same time, it is evident that correlation between equity and the crypto markets are at minimum. The crypto market is slowing down, after an excellent start of the year, which is evident on charts and prices of the crypto assets. Total crypto market capitalisation remained relatively flat compared to the week before, losing some $5B on a weekly basis. Major coins on the market were also traded in a mixed mode. Daily trading volumes dropped significantly during the week, to FWB:41B on a daily basis, from $72B a week before. This could be a result of forthcoming holiday weekend, and not general trend on the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year remained at 52% , where it has added a total $390B to the market cap. It was a relatively mixed week on the crypto market, with evident slowdown in daily trading volumes. Ether was certainly a star of the week, considering that its price was strongly supported by the so-called Shepella upgrade of Ethereum network. Ether`s market capitalization was increased by more than 2% on a weekly basis, which added almost $5B to its value. Bitcoin slowed down, losing 1.4% as of the weekend, which is a drop of almost $8B on a weekly basis. DOGE was one more time supported by Elon Musk, so the coin ended the week with a gain of 9% w/w or $1B in market cap. Other altcoins were traded more or less flat compared to the week before. As for coins in circulation, it was a good week for Tether, whose circulating coins were up by 0.6% w/w, but reaching a significant milestone, as it managed to move above $80B in market cap for one more time in the history of this coin. Crypto futures market In line with spot market movements, the crypto futures market had a mixed trading week. BTC short term futures ended the week down by more than 2%, while longer term futures were relatively flat compared to the week before. There has not been much changes in levels of futures maturing as of the end of this year, which were closed on Friday at the price of $28.745, and those maturing in December next year, which were traded at price $29.725. ETH futures were traded higher compared to the end of the previous week, supported by the news on successful upgrade of Ethereum network. In this sense, short term futures were traded higher by some 1.7% on average, while longer term futures ended the previous week 5% higher. It is positive that both maturities in December this year and next year closed the week above $1.9K level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX