Total is pressing up, 1.5T could be nextAfter a 2-month consolidation of around 750 in November and December last year, Total started to rise at the beginning of the year and in mid-February passed above the 1T important zone.
A correction followed, but the bulls took control again once it dropped again under 1T, putting in a higher low on our chart.
For 3 weeks now the price is consolidating just under important horizontal resistance and is looking like bulls are waiting for a trigger to break.
In the case of a break, this would be of great importance, confirming a very large inverted H&S pattern, started in June 2022.
The measured target for the pattern is around 1.5T, a zone that is very nicely aligned with another important horizontal level.
As long as the price is above the 1.05-1.1 zone I'm bullish
Cryptomarketcap
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CRYPTO week ahead: March 27 – April 2Last week in the news
Markets were digesting all events from the previous period during the previous week. The fear about another banking crisis is still in the air. At the same time FED increased interest rates for another 25 bps, despite some opinions that it will further negatively affect the banking sector. The EU equities market was closed in red on Friday, amid negative news surrounding German Deutsche bank, while US equities remained relatively flat compared to the week before. The crypto market continues with gains, but at the lower pace from the week before. Bitcoin is finishing the week struggling to hold $28K, while Ether holds a $1.750 resistance line.
The minute we thought that the dust over the collapsing banks was over, the end of the week brought another news related to the largest German Deutsche bank. The issue is that nobody actually knows what is going on with the bank, but the panic in the news started the moment when spreads on credit default swaps for this bank started to widen as of the end of the previous week. After that, a sale of bank shares started, so the price slid by 14%. The bank did not comment on the latest developments, however both Olaf Scholz, a German Chancellor and Christine Lagarde, a President of ECB, were giving statements, ensuring that there is no any sort of issue with bank`s liquidity and solvency. Analysts are mentioning that the latest move on the market is triggered by contingency fears from recently collapsed Credit Suisse, but the issue here is, why exactly at this moment is such a correction occuring, as issues with the Swiss bank lasted for a few weeks? This is certainly one important news to watch closely, considering the size of the Deutsche bank and its significant global presence.
It seems that the US passed its banking crisis, however, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a House panel that additional actions could be taken by the US Treasury in case that American`s deposits are in some cases jeopardized. During the previous day, she also noted to the US senators about a plan to insure all U.S. bank deposits, however, it should not be done without an approval from Congress.
During the previous week there has finally been some news from the crypto industry. Namely, leaders of the crypto industry told CNBC that they are not happy with the current gray zone of the regulation, which the SEC is trying to impose, but instead they would be much happier with a clear guidance from U.S. government and regulators. This comes after the SEC sent another notice to the Coinbase, noting that they are potentially violating the U.S. securities law. At the same time, the US indeed is lagging behind many other countries on setting up the clear rules for the crypto industry.
While the US is still not sure whether it wants crypto or not, the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, stated that he intends to propose the bill by which all taxes on both software and hardware innovations will be eliminated in the country. El Salvador's President Bukele was the first president of one country who introduced Bitcoin as a legal tender.
The National Bank of the United Arab Emirates made an announcement over the finalization of the first phase in its currency strategy by mid-2024, by which the country will introduce its own digital currency – a digital Dirham. The first phase is expected to be finalized within the next 12 to 15 months.
Crypto market cap
Banks were in the spotlight of the market for the second week in a row. News are moving from the collapsed ones to the potential banks which might fall under difficulties due to contingencies of the fallen ones. Important event during the previous week was FED`s further increase of reference interest rates by another 25 bps. Market analysts speculated if the FED would continue with further rate increases, considering that strong shifts in interest rates are hurting banking liquidity and solvency capacities. The bottom line was that FED continued with its policy of breaking down the inflation, while Treasury Secretary Yellen, was the one responsible for calming down the market with wording over potential insurance of all American deposits. Of course, it is clear that the rhetoric is aimed to calm the markets, and most importantly, to stop deposits outflow from banks. Although the crypto market had an extremely good week two weeks ago, during the previous week the situation calmed a bit with the relatively mixed performance. Total crypto market capitalization remained relatively flat compared to the week before. Daily trading volumes were decreased to the levels of $72B on a daily basis, from $135B a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year still holds at level of 49% , where it has added a total $369B to the market cap.
Crypto coins were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. Bitcoin is still leading the market to the upside, with weekly gain in the market cap of $4B or 0.7%. Ether finished the previous week in red, losing $4,5B in the market cap or 2%. BNB was another main coin which did not manage to sustain previously reached capitalization levels, due, its market cap was decreased by $2B or 4% within a week. XRP again had a good week, by adding $4B to its total capitalization and surging it by 21.6%. This move was supported by the news related to potential resolution of the SEC dispute. Tether continues to gain on market fears on banking contingencies, and gained during the week another $2.7B in market cap, increasing coins in circulation by 3.7%. In a relative terms OMG Network had a good week as the coin surged by 25% in a single week.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market ended the week in a more positive manner than the spot market. BTC short term futures were up around 3% on a weekly basis, while long term futures surged by additional 13% from the week before. Another positive development is that maturities in December 2024 reached level above $30K for the first time after a long time. December 2024 ended the week at price $30.175, while December this year was last traded at price of $29.185.
ETH futures were traded higher but at a lower price increase from BTC futures. ETH short term maturities were only modestly up around 2%, and long term futures ended the week by 8% higher from the end of the week before. December 2024 was last traded at price of $1.904.
Above noted price levels are important also from the aspect of market perception of the future developments. Namely, after a longer period of inverted futures curve, finally there is some indication that the market is positive about future price developments for both coins.
Bitcoin: Can the bulls hold on?Judging from the current trend of Bitcoin and the overall market sentiment, the pressure level of 28,500 above is too strong to break through in the short term. There is a need for Bitcoin to withdraw, but the 27,000 below is still the key support for Bitcoin.Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the recent high and stood near 28472, and then retreated to near 27300. It seems that Bitcoin will be trading sideways at least in the short term.
At present, the Bitcoin price is oscillating back and forth at a high level, and the pressure above is strong, making it difficult to break through in a short period of time. Even if the Bitcoin price can continue to rise, it will at least need to be confirmed by stepping back to accumulate upward momentum during the rise, so there is a demand for retracement in the short term.
On the other hand, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has increased significantly in the past week or so, which may also mean that BTC may face selling pressure.
In the short-term treatment, the lower support is near 27500, and the initial pressure above is near 28500.
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CRYPTO week ahead: March 20 – 26Last week in the news
Second week on financial markets as a game of nerves. This time, banks were in the center of the game. Too-high-too-fast monetary tightening is reflecting into squeezed banking liquidity, both within the US and some European banks. The US equity markets were closed in red on Friday amid new potential banking contingencies. On the other hand, the crypto market gained significantly during the previous week, but the question is whether it was on healthy grounds? Bitcoin is ending the week around $27K, Ether around $1.750.
Last week brought a series of unfortunate events within the banking sector in both the US and Switzerland. The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed over the significant run off of depositors. The bank tried to attain liquidity through liquidation of $21 billion of Treasury bonds, with $1.8 billion in losses, however, it was not enough. The deposits were insured with Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation but only to the level of $250K per depositor. What will happen with the rest of deposited funds in this bank, it is unclear at this moment. Signature bank was also closed, in the meantime. Currently, another troubled US bank, the First Republic Bank, tried to be saved by 11 other banks which lend $30 billion to First Republic for 2 months, however, at the end of the week there has been news that this amount would not be enough to secure liquidity. Shares of the bank were down by 30%, decreasing possibility of a sale of the bank at a decent price.
Europe also had a busy banking week, with Credit Suisse, a Switzerland based bank, as a main player. The bank was struggling with its business and several scandals within the last two years, however, during the previous week it all collided into a final liquidity squeeze. The bank was not able to secure additional capital, so, at the end, the Swiss National Bank entered into the playfield, by supporting the bank with $50 billion. As per initial information it should help the bank to pass through the current difficult time, but it seems rather like a short assistance until the bank finds a buyer. Bloomberg had reported that the largest Swiss bank, UBS, is in talks of possible takeover of a part of Credit Suisse`s business.
Despite the general banking crisis in the Western countries, the ECB raised its interest rates during the previous week by additional 50 bps. As per ECB president Lagarde, the ECB will probably continue with rate increases, until the inflation is finally on the road to targeted 2%. On the other hand, a FOMC meeting will be held during the week ahead, where it is expected that the FED will continue with its rate increases by 25 bps. The markets are now anticipating first rate cuts as of the end of this year.
On the other side of the globe, the People Bank of China announced a cut of the reserve requirements for banks by 25 basis points. The aim of such a decision is to allow banks in China to secure enough liquidity to support economic recovery in the country. After severe lockdowns during the previous period, the authorities in China set a target of 5% economic growth for this year.
Crypto market cap
Certainly, the previous week was another one with a game of nerves on financial markets. The crypto market gained significantly, but it was not at all a healthy surge. It was mostly supported by people who were transferring their funds from banks to the “safer” place like crypto currencies. Before the crypto market was invented, in such situations like a banking crisis, investors would pull their money into gold and other metals, but this time was different. The price of gold did make a gain, but not as high as the crypto market has. Some crypto enthusiasts are arguing that it is exactly why crypto currencies were made – to bring freedom from government control and bad banks. It might be on a metaphysical level, but the current truth is somewhere in the gray zone, which means that governments are slowly gaining some control over the crypto market, which we have seen during the previous period. Here we also need to take into account a high speculative capital on the market, which is trying to gain as much as possible from the latest developments. Overall, no matter how good the latest surge in the price of crypto coins is, still on a long run, it increases the risks of a run-off from the market when the current banking crisis resolves. In this sense, it is still early for a “told you so” moment for crypto enthusiasts.
Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 23% on a weekly basis, reaching for another time this year levels above $1 trillion. Daily trading volumes remained at modestly higher levels, moving between $160B, down to $ $135B on a daily basis. Interestingly, trading volumes were lower from the week before, when the market traded around $170B on a daily level. Total crypto market capitalization surged to a 49% increase since the beginning of this year, adding total $368B to the market cap.
Significant increase in the market cap during the previous week was led by the BTC with a gain of total $136B in the market cap, increasing its value by almost 35% within a single week. ETH also managed to attract investors with an increase of $42B, which is a surge of 23.5% from the week before. In the group of significant gainers in the nominal terms belongs also BNB which surged its market cap by almost $10B or 22.7% on a weekly basis. Tether was another coin worth mentioning, as it has added $3.6B to its market cap and increasing number of circulating coins by 5.7%. Majority of altcoins gained in relative terms around 20% with only a few coins which added less than 10% to their market cap. After many weeks with continuous increase of circulating coins, during the previous week Filecoin pointed to a decrease of 2.3%.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reacted to developments on the spot market and increased prices of futures accordingly. All maturities gained in price, however, what is symptomatic is that the maturities price curve took again an inverted shape. Short term futures are again higher in prices from the longer term one for both BTC and ETH coins. It seems that investors are still not convinced that current macroeconomic developments would be reflected in increased prices of coins in the future period.
BTC short term futures were traded around 35% higher from the week before, while long term futures were up by around 25%. BTC maturities in December this year finished the week at level of $25.720, while those maturing in December 2024 were traded at price of $26.590.
ETH short term futures were up by 23% w/w, while the long term ones were up by more than 19%. ETH futures that mature in December this year ended the week at level of $1.717, while those maturing in December next year were traded at price of $1.750.
CRYPTO week ahead: March 13 – 19Last week in the news
Previous week brought the game of nerves on financial markets. At the beginning of the week FED Chair Powell stressed that the interest rates would have to go higher from previously estimated levels, while the week-end brought concerns over potential collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Both US and EU equities finished the week in red. Not a better situation was on the crypto market, where Bitcoin ended the week around $20K resistance, and Ether is holding above $1.4K.
The Federal Reserves were for one more time a game-changer on financial markets. Although the beginning of this year brought at least some positive sentiment that the fight against inflation might soon be over, after the FOMC started slowing down increase in its interest rates, a FED Chair`s Powell Congress testimony revealed that the FED is not even near its previous estimates. Namely, he openly noted in testimony that the rates could go even higher from currently anticipated 5,25% if inflation remains persistent and probably the increase would be at a faster pace from current 25 bps. Markets immediately changed expectations for a 50 bps increase in rates in March, from previous 25 bps. Based on data published on Friday, the US nonfarm payrolls rose 311K, more than market estimate, confirming the assumption that inflator pressures will persist, as well as FED's rate increases.
Troubled crypto-friendly Silvergate bank was in the market spotlight during the previous period, but during the previous week it has officially noted that the bank is winding down its further operations. However, at the end of the previous week there was news about venture-capital-friendly Silicon Valley Bank. The bank went into trouble after not being able to secure funds for further operations. Namely, the Silicon Valley Bank was well known in the Silicon Valley as a financial institution which was strongly supporting start-ups especially in the tech industry. Since the latest meltdown on the financial and crypto market, many depositors withdraw their funds, and the bank was not able to secure further funding even after a sale of its Tbonds worth $21 billion with $1.8 billion of loss, neither was able to secure $2 billion of additional capital. The bank is currently under supervision of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in order to secure the rest of deposits. The final resolution for the bank will probably be known during the following week.
Not all investors see current developments as negative. Cathie Woods is one of the rare investors still ready to buy at significant discounts and current prices. As per news, Ark Invest bought additional $22 million worth shares of Coinbase. With the latest purchase the Fund currently owns 9,9 million of COIN shares with market value of $575 million, or 3,8% of COIN shares.
Crypto market cap
FED was once again a game-changer. Trading on financial markets during the first half of the week was a reflection of FED Chair Powell`s testimony in the US Congress, where he expressed views on potential higher interest rates from previously projected if inflation persists. At the same time, he noted a possibility for pace of rate increases to be higher from previous 25 bps. Markets immediately reacted where 2Y Treasury bonds reached levels above 5%. Equity markets were traded lower, and the crypto market followed. The end of the week was marked with another shock, when VC-friendly Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after experiencing significant outflow of deposits. That event triggered a significant sell-off on the crypto market, where all coins lost a huge portion of the value. Total crypto market capitalization ended the week 7% lower from the week before, losing additional $68B. Crypto market cap is still holding above $900 trillion and is still in a positive territory compared with the end of the previous year. Daily trading volumes were increased to the level of $170B on a daily basis, compared to $56B traded during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 21% since the beginning of this year, adding total $156B to the market cap.
The only coin which gained during the previous week was Tether, by adding a 1,90% to the volume of coins in circulation. Majority of stablecoins were affected with the latest downturn, where USDC fell below $1.0 peg. Major coins on the market were participating with 80% in total crypto market cap drop in nominal terms during the previous week. Bitcoin was down by 8,9%, losing $38B in market cap. Ether followed BTC and dropped its market cap by 7.3% or $14B. BNB was also affected, where its market cap was decreased by $2.1B or almost 5%. Solana was also down by $1.1B or by more than 15%. Other coins with significant drop in value in relative terms were Litecoin, who dropped by 24%, NEO was down by 23%, DASH dropped by more than 32%, OMG Network decreased its value by 24%. As for coins in circulation, during the previous week Monero decreased its circulating coins by 5,2% w/w, EOS coins were down by 0.3%. while Filecoin continues with its strong push for the circulating coins, increasing its number by 5,2% during the previous week.
Crypto futures market
It has been the third straight week in which both BTC and ETH futures were traded at lower grounds. At the same time, the last week`s market run-off triggered over $300 million losses in liquidations of the open positions and margin calls. Coins traded on CME exchange ended the Friday trading lower from the current spot prices. BTC short term futures were traded by more than 10% lower from the end of the previous week, while longer term futures were down slightly below 15%. BTC futures maturing as of the end of this year were traded at price of $20.63K, while December 2023 was traded at price $21.33K.
ETH short term futures were traded lower by less than 10%, while longer term futures prices dropped by more than 14%. ETH futures maturing as of the end of this year ended the week at price $1.44K, while those maturing in December 2023 were traded at price $1.470.
CRYPTO week ahead: March 6 – 12Last week in the news
Both EU and US equity markets were closed higher on Friday, after easing in the US Treasury yields. The market had priced available information regarding further tightening of monetary policy, however, the week ahead is bringing some important data which might bring back volatility. At the same time, the crypto market slowed down amid concerns regarding the Silvergate crypto-friendly bank during the previous week, with Bitcoin ending the week above $22K, and Ether holding above $1.550.
Inflation in the Euro zone continues to surge, data showed. During the previous week, published yearly inflation figures for February showed a further increase of 5,6% y/y, above market expectations of 5,3%. There is an increasing number of economists who are pointing that the planned 50 bps ECB`s increase in rates in March would not be enough, and that probably additional 100 bps should be needed in the coming period. At the same time, still strong US employment data impacted the strengthening of the USD, but most importantly, it made an additional impact on the US Treasury bond yield curve. Namely, the 2-year T-bonds reached a level of 4,86%, which was last seen in June 2007. This bond is mostly watched by the market due to its sensitivity to FED`s moves and certainly as a signal to markets that the FED will continue to hike rates in the coming period above current levels. On the other hand, there are analysts who are voicing that the FED is currently lagging behind the yield curve with rate increases, and that 25 bps would not be enough to cope with inflation.
Binance exchanger is once again in the news spotlight. This time is due to several senators in the US Congress requesting detailed information on the Binances`s business operations due to concerns over the company's illegal practices. Senators are especially pointing to Binance`s anti-money laundering and sanctions law practices and compliance with the US regulation in that respect. Binance USD coin issued on the Paxos fell below a $10 billion market capitalization, since Paxo`s announcement that it will halt minting new BUSD, as it has been requested by the New York Department of Financial Services. This comes after a concern from regulators that Paxos is offering unregistered securities.
Published statements of the Silvegate crypto bank showed that its business has been hurt by the crypto implosion as of the end of 2022., when the bank lost more than $8 billion in deposits. At the same time, the bank faced investigations from regulators but also potential restating of its financial statements after the ongoing audit was finalized. Special warning to the markets was an announcement from the Silvergate bank that it is closing its SEN platform, which has been used by bank`s clients to transfer their funds from bank to other exchangers.
Coinbase (COIN), a cryptocurrency exchanger, announced that the company had acquired One River Digital Asset Management. As a rationale for such a decision, the company is noting that it is looking to expand its business to investment advisory service to the institutional clients.
Crypto market cap
Questions regarding FED`s future monetary tightening is still the main topic on the market. Still, during the previous week the crypto market has been impacted by the news regarding Silvergate bank development and its potential further deterioration in business due to crypto implosion as of the end of the previous year, when the bank went into the spotlight of regulators after the collapse of the FTX exchanger. During the previous week, total crypto market capitalization decreased again below the level of $1 trillion, reaching $980B. This represents a decrease of 3% on a weekly level where the crypto market lost more than $34B in value. At the same time, daily trading volumes continue to be decreasing, trading around $56B on a daily basis, which is a further decrease from $88B during the week before. For one more time the crypto market is slowing down, which is its usual course of action during the times of high uncertainty of market participants. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 30% since the beginning of this year, adding total $224B to the market cap.
Major coins on the market were the ones which led to last week`s drop. Bitcoin was a leader on a negative side, losing $14B on a weekly basis or more than 3%. Ether`s loss in market cap was relatively lower, holding at $4.5B or more than 2% compared to the previous week. BNB was hit by the negative news around Binance exchanger, where the coin`s cap was down by $2B or around 4%. Majority of altcoins were mostly down up to 10%, with few coins with higher loss in market cap, like Miota and Theta, which were both down by more than 16%, ZCash was down by 15%, or Filecoin with a decrease of 12%. On the opposite side, few altcoins managed to perform with a positive weekly result, like Maker, with a surge of 23%, EOS was up by 11%, while NEO managed to gain 6% compared to the previous week. As for coins in circulation, the winner of the week was Monero with a surge in coins in circulation of 5.5%, and was followed by LINK, which increased its coins by 1.8%.
Crypto futures market
During the previous week crypto futures were traded a bit lower from the spot market. This comes as a result of significant liquidations of long positions after negative news regarding the Silvergate bank. BTC short term futures were traded down by more than 4%, while longer terms were traded in a calmer way. Futures maturing as of the end of this year were closed at price $24,14K, almost flat compared to the week before, while maturities in December 2024 were down by 1%, ending the week at price $24,96K.
ETH short term futures ended the week about 3% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year and in 2024 were relatively flat on a weekly basis, where December 2023 ended the week at price $1,67K, while December 2024 was traded at price $1.719.
Bitcoin Immediate short term ⚠️UPDATEWhat are the reasons for the recent decline in the value of Bitcoin?
In both Timeframes 1W and 1W BTC printed a Bearish Divergence
Bitcoin has been moving sideways for the past 33 hours, while altcoins have been bleeding hard.
What's next ?
Bitcoin's current major resistance level is $22800, and if it loses its current support level, the next target will be $21.5k.
If breaking 22.8k resistance i am expecting BTC to bounce to 24.1k. And 27k, only if daily closing above 25.3k
That was the reason why btc was dumping hard recently.
Note: Predictions and chart analysis made more accurate when jumping into a higher timeframes.
⚠️ Not a financial advice.
Happy trading ❤️
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Flor Bejleri
CRYPTO week ahead: February 27 – March 5Last week in the news
Stock markets were closed lower on Friday, amid fresh inflation data in the US. The crypto market entered into a short reversal, but is still holding above last year's lows. Bitcoin is finishing the week around $23K, while Ether below $1.6K.
Personal consumption expenditure price index is one of the main indicators for the FED to anticipate where the inflation is heading. During the previous week, released PCI figures showed an increase of 0.6% in January, bringing it to 4.7% on a yearly level. This was higher from market expectation of 0.5% for a month. This was also a signal for markets that the FED still has a job to do with further inflation fighting, which would most certainly include further increases of interest rates. As per analysts, current predictions assume further increases by the mid-year, after which, the FED might slow down, of course, if they manage to break the demand side.
A group of 20 (G20) nations held a meeting with the IMF in order to discuss current debt restructuring issues for troubled countries, but they also used the opportunity to mention crypto currencies. The IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva used this opportunity to distinguish between central bank digital currencies backed by fiat currencies, including stable coins, from coins which are privately issued. In this sense, she argued for tight regulation and supervision for privately issued coins in order to avoid risks for financial stability. In case that regulation is unable to put strict controls over crypto currencies, then she noted that they should be banned.
As per a CNBC report, the US SEC is “gearing up” to put some charges against Paxos, a company that issues stablecoin. As per the same report, during the previous week the New York state`s regulator ordered Paxos to halt further issuance of BUSD. The Paxos company commented that it has been ordered by the SEC to register BUSD as a security. The situation with Paxos is very important for other issuers of stablecoins, as they might also be requested to impose the same procedure.
There has been further news with respect to crypto regulation. As per the Financial Action Task Force report from its last meeting, this global institution will set action for implementation of its global standards for crypto. The FATF is a global institution of 206 members with the main task to set global standards for money laundering and terrorist financing.
The European Central Bank published a document “Rollout approach for the digital euro” in which it exposes Eurosystem`s analysis on the approach to rollout the digital euro. As per document, the priorities of the introduction of the digital currency will be peer-to-peer transactions and online purchases, while the commercial and governmental use are scheduled for the second phase.
Crypto market cap
Assumptions of the market participants that the fight with inflation is still not over are finally supported through official data. The released PCI figures last week showed an increase of 0.6% in January, bringing it to 4.7% on a yearly level. It collides with other figures posted previously, which provided clear signal that FED will most probably further increase interest rates until the mid-year, at least. The targeted 2% is still far away, which decreases market optimism. Both the equity and crypto market lost some of value during the end of the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization is down by 6% or $60B on a weekly basis, but still the total cap holds above $1 trillion and also above the level where the market finished in 2022. At the same time, daily trading volumes continue to decrease, reaching around $88B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 34% since the beginning of this year, adding total $259B to the market cap.
Major coins on the market were leading market capitalization drop during the previous week, participating with 75% in a total decrease of $60B. Bitcoin decreased its market cap by $31B or 6.5%. BTC is followed by Ether, with weekly drop of $12B in the cap or 5.8%. Last week BNB has also been on a down road, with a decrease in cap by more than $2B or less than 5%. Polygon also experienced a significant decrease in the market cap by $2B which is around 16%. On the other side, NEO was a coin which led rare crypto gainers during the previous week. Namely, the coin managed to increase its market cap by 16% within a single week. This move was supported by the news that NEO will be one of the ten blockchains to form China's new Blockchain Service Network (BSN). Miota is another coin with positive weekly outcome, as it managed to surge its market cap by more than 4%. Tether and Filecoin are two coins which are leaders of the market when it comes to increase of circulating coins. During the previous week, Tether`s total circulating coins were up by 0.7%, while Filecoin had a gain of 0.9%.
Crypto futures market
Crypto futures were traded in line with spot price moves. However, positive developments in the slope of future prices continue. Regardless of a general drop in prices, the crypto futures for December 2024 for BTC were traded higher by 0.84%, while ETH futures for the same period were up by 0.76%. This expresses market optimism regarding future prospectus for these coins.
Short term BTC futures were traded around 7% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December 2023 were traded down by some 3%, ending the week at level of $24K. At the same time, ETH futures had a lower drop in prices, where short term ones were traded around 5% lower on a weekly basis, while December 2023 was down by 0.7%, ending the week at level of $1.687.
Bitcoin ($BTC): Price Action Analysis & Forecast in medium-termHi everybody!
In recent months my view on Bitcoin has not changed and only technical analysis will tell me "if and when" to change my mind. Well, as mentioned in our latest weekly analysis, the approach to the resistance area (Pivot + MA200) was expected, so we are not surprised by the rally triggered during yesterday's session. In support of this analysis, the Market Cap Index (TOTAL2) also seems to prove us right (see chart below), even if at the moment, on weekly chart, the trend is bearish, yet. Another interesting element is to see "how" $BTC triggered this bullish leg from 15,000 (that's why I don't use indicators or oscillators in my analysis). Today and in the next sessions, my supporters and I will continue to follow the dynamics on lower time frames (daily and intraday chart) in search of the next swing that should push the Price Action towards a consolidation. From a technical point of view, I think it is much more important to follow the opening of the next weekly bar than the closing of this candle....but this is just my opinion...
TOTAL MARKET CAP ANALYSIS
(Click & Play on Chart below)
BULLISH LEG from 15,000 AREA
(Click & Play on Chart below)
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MATICUSDT 20022023 Short IdeaOn Hourly chart, MATIC has been trying hard to break and sustained above 1.5500, however it has failed thrice. Further on hourly timeframes MATIC is failing to break previous HH and making Higher lows. 1.4700-1.4800 has becoming important support Zone. Looking at the indicators, candles pattern and chart formation a short position can be taken as per below setup.
MATICUSDT
Entry: 1.4781
SL: 1.5417
TP: 1.3827
RRR: 1.56
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies Feb 20 – 26Last week in the news
The US equity market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week amid fears of potential higher inflation which would imply further FED`s monetary tightening. At the same time, the crypto market ended the week in a more optimistic manner, with Bitcoin heading toward $25K resistance, and ETH heading toward the $1.7K resistance.
During the previous week there have been few surprises when it comes to US macro data and expectations on the inflation in the coming period. Published figures show that the US inflation was 5,6% in January, more than market was expecting, while core inflation stands at 6,4%, again higher from 6,2% where the expectations were standing. At the same time, retail sales were up by 3% in January, more than expected 1.8%. One of the currently quite important indicators, also published during the previous week, showed that the Producer Price Index in January was higher by 0,7%, from 0,4% expected by the market, which is the first indication that the inflation might not slow down in the following months. Posted figures were not welcomed by the market, as they indicate a potential for further FED's monetary tightening, through increased interest rates, while targeted 2% inflation still remains a hard target.
The topic of digital Euro has been in a view of the European Central Bank for some time now, however, during the Q3 of this year, the heads of the EU central banks should bring up a final decision, whether the ECB should push the program of digital currencies further and start with official testing of the digital euro. The ECB President Lagarde, noted that the question of digital euro is more of the geopolitical, technological and economic topic where the EU might be set behind the US tech companies and China's advanced payment system. She also added that currently more than ⅔ of all card transactions in the EU are processed by the companies form outside the EU.
Filecoin announced a launch of its Filecoin Virtual Machine on March 1st, instead in September this year, as it has been previously announced. Among many improvements that the FVM will allow to developers, one of the important features is related to the possibility of forming a bridge between FVM and Ethereum virtual machine, which would make easy transfers of tokens between two networks. This announcement pushed the Filecoin natural token to new highs, at $7,82 as of the end of the week.
Crypto market cap
Markets continue to be confused in a quest for clear signals over the state of the US economy. A strong job figures posted two weeks ago, in addition to higher producer price index and inflation in January, are adding to the assumption that the FED will continue with tightening monetary policy including further increases of reference interest rates. Although, during the previous week equity markets were traded in a mixed manner, the crypto market was resilient to economic news. There has been increased optimism, where total crypto market capitalization was additionally increased by 10%, adding $101B to its market cap. Almost all coins gained during the previous week, with major coins leading the surge in the market cap. Total crypto market cap reached for one more time levels above $1 trillion, and is on the road to further recovery. Daily trading volumes also increased, reaching around $116B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization surged by 42% since the beginning of this year, adding total $319B to the market cap.
Almost all coins gained during the previous week, but major coins are certainly the ones that contributed the most to the surge in total market capitalization. Leader of the week was Bitcoin, which managed to surge by almost 13% on a weekly basis, adding $54B to its market cap. BTC was followed by ETH, with an increase in cap by almost $19B or 10% in value. There are few altcoins with performance above $1B like Cardano, with an increase in cap of $1,3B or more than 10%, Solana, with a surge of 15% in market cap, or Polygon with an increase of $2B in cap or 20%. Filecoin is again a coin worth mentioning considering its strong increase of coins in circulation during the last few months. The coin also managed to increase its market value by an incredible 46% on a weekly basis adding $1B to its cap. This surge was supported by the announcement from Filecoin that Filecoin Virtual Machine will be released at the beginning of March.
Crypto futures market
General positive market sentiment was reflected on the prices of both BTC and ETH futures. The futures market was traded significantly higher compared to the week before. In line with the spot market, short term BTC futures were traded on average 13% higher from the end of the previous week, while ETH futures were up by some 10%. Increased spot prices were also reflected within long term price expectations, in which sense, BTC futures with maturity in December this year were closed at price $24.780, while ETH futures for the same maturity were closed at price $1.698 on Friday.
TOTAl weekly observationThe Green box we are in currently has acted as Support and resistance ofr a few months now but maybe its time is coming to an end.
I notalso note that the Descending channel that PA is in, is getting tighter and currently, as PA remains pressed under the line of resistance, the other line Gets closer.
Time is running out for PA to react and react it Must - As you can see, the 112 day limit on the right is exactly when the two lines of Resistance cross each other
Failure of PA t esed the similar time spans, as marked on the chart, and the 3rd should see us out of that Box, in an uptrend.
You will acpe this would be a big move to lowwer support, probably back to wicking down to the $17K Mark on a weekly Candle
PA needs to break UP
Lets see
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies: Feb 13 – 19Last week in the news
A mixed week on financial markets. After the latest FOMC moves and speak of FED Chair Powell, there are still some mixed signals which investors are trying to sort out. The US equity market ended Friday’s trading slightly higher, after the worst week in more than a month. The crypto market lost some of its value, with Bitcoin holding above $21K and Ether still holding above $1.5K.
Aside from the mixed macro sentiment, the crypto industry has been additionally hit by the news on the SEC moves toward staking crypto products. During the previous week, Kraken, one of the largest crypto exchanges, made a settlement of $30 million with the SEC on the charge that the company did not make a registration of their staking-as-a-service offer. At the same time, fears arouse on the market that Ethereum might be the next target of the SEC, considering their staking program. The SEC Chair Gary Gensler sent a message to other market participants to “take a note” and fully comply with the regulation on any programs which contain words “lend, yield or earn '', regardless of what the economics behind such programs are.
Interesting announcement came from Binance last week. Namely, the company announced that, starting from February 8th, non-US customers will not be able to make deposits or withdrawals in the USD to or from their bank accounts. At the same time there has not been an explanation for such a strange decision. After this announcement there has been a spike of funds outflows from Binance to other exchangers and individual wallets, as many clients made a withdrawal of their USDT and USDC coins.
A test network Sepolia will be pushed through the Shanghai upgrade on February 28th. The date has been agreed by the Ethereum developers. This will be the second network upgrade, after the Zhejiang test network has been already simulated during the previous week. As it has been announced, there will be one more test network upgrade before the final release of the Shanghai hark fork during March.
News is reporting that PayPal placed their stablecoin project on hold, after their main crypto partner Paxos and the issuer of PAX stablecoin, has been placed under investigation by the New York Department of Financial Services.
The decentralised autonomous organisation (DAO) called Friends with Benefits (FWB) announced on Twitter the introduction of a new kind of social network with the aim to gather enthusiasts of Web3 adoption and education. In order to join this community, a user needs to hold a minimum 75 FWB tokens.
Crypto market cap
After the latest FOMC moves and speak of FED Chair Powell, there are still some mixed signals which investors are trying to sort out. Strong jobs figures do not fit into a story about recession, while, on the other hand, it might imply further inflator pressures which might be in store for the future period. A week ahead is bringing data on US inflation in January and producer price index, which will be closely watched by the markets. In this sense, there could be some increased market volatility ahead. On the opposite side, the crypto market was under strong influence of SEC`s strike on the crypto staking products. Kraken already passed this SEC`s scanner with $30 million in fines and halt of offering of such products. SEC Chair Gensler sent a clear message to all market participants that all products which include words ``lend, yield or earn” needs to be properly registered with the SEC. The markets are now waging which crypto company might be next on the SEC`s list for potential penalty.
This news made a negative impact on the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization was decreased during the week by 7%, impacting outflow of $73B from the market. The capitalization fell below $1 trillion for one more time. Daily trading volumes were additionally decreased from the week before, moving on average around $75B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 28% since the beginning of this year, adding total $211B to the market cap.
Weekly drop in total market capitalization of $73B was led mostly by the major coins on the market, however, there are rare coins which ended the week in green. BTC, ETH and BNB participated with 75% in total market drop during the week, by losing the most in nominal values. BTC` market cap was down by more than 7% or $32B, and was followed by ETH, with a decrease in cap of almost $19B or more than 9%. BNB`s market cap had an outflow of $3.5B or more than 6.6%. Altcoins which lost in value more than $1B were XRP, which was down by $1.5B or 7%, DOGE with a drop of $1.6B or almost 13%, Cardano dropped by $1.5B or 10%, and Solana with a decrease of $1.5B or 16.5%. Majority of other altcoins lost less than 10% in value. As for coins in circulation, Polkadot was a surprise of the week, by managing to increase its total circulating coins by 11% on a weekly basis. Filecoin continues its rally with circulating coins, adding almost 3% during the previous week.
Crypto futures market
General negative crypto market sentiment caused by SEC`s strike on the crypto staking products, made an impact for the crypto futures to trade lower compared to the week before. BTC short term futures were traded lower by more than 8%, while December 2023 was closed 6.4% lower, at a price of $22.6K. Futures maturing in December 2024 were down by 7.7% on a weekly basis, trading around $22.4K.
ETH short term futures ended the week down around 10%, while longer maturities were lower by more than 6% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year were traded modestly below $1.6K, while those maturing in December 2024 were modestly higher from $1.6K.
Crypto Market Cap - The Cycle TrendBeing on the same channel, hypothetically, the Crypto Market Cap might lose more than 50% with the ongoing recession in the next 2 quarters to have 400-700 Billion in the market cap before the market starts flourishing again in mid-late 2023 ahead of the new cycle of 2024.
This is what must happen to continues the bullishAfter breakout the upper side of this massive falling wedge on weekly time frame.
Storj need a weekly close upper the 0.53$ level.
A 300% bullish rise is expected if this happens.
Don't forget to support us with ur likes , comments and follow us for more ideas.🎯
Good luck🌷
Can bulls do it?Hello every one
Today i want to share my idea with u.
On the 3-day time frame, we notice the intersection of the upper part of the descending channel with the red horizontal resistance
This intersection (yellow zone) indicate a strong resistance for the bulls to break it
Keep your eyes on it.👀
We expect a breakout to occur soon, and if this happens, we expect a strong rise of 300%
Don't forget to support us with ur like and follow me for more updates.💙
Good luck👌
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, February 06 – 12Last week in the news
Central bankers made a previous week quite a busy one on the financial markets. Both FED and ECB raised interest rates fulfilling market expectations. Equities were traded in a mixed mode after the posted job figures in the US, while the crypto market was holding strongly. Bitcoin is finishing the week above $23K, Ether is still holding above $1.6K.
As it has been expected, FED increased the reference interest rate by additional 25 bps aimed to cope with increasing inflation. Such a decision was expected by markets and increased anticipation of potential further slowdown in monetary tightening. In a statement after the meeting, FED Chair Powell noted the recent drop in inflation as a positive sign; however, the FED will need more evidence that the inflation took the actual decreasing course. On several occasions, he also noted that the FED will have new forecasts in March, which will provide more information over the expected future course of macroeconomic developments. However, equity markets were closed in red on Friday, after the posted jobs report for the US. Namely, markets were shaken by the unexpectedly better than anticipated jobs figures, where nonfarm payrolls in January were increased by 517K much higher from anticipated 187K. At the same time, the unemployment rate was down to 3,4%, from 3,6% posted previously, which is its lowest level for the last 50 years. Such strong figures increased investors expectations that FED`s further rate increases might continue during the course of this year, at least to the level of 5%-5.25%, as per latest CME data.
During the week the European Central Bank also lifted its interest rate by additional 50 bps, with high potential for another 50 bps lift in March, as per Lagarde`s statement.
The India`s Enforcement Directorate entered the premises of the CEO of the crypto exchanger WazirX, Sammer Mhatre, after the exchange has been under investigation for support of money laundering activities of 16 companies in tech industry. Binance CEO, CZ, used this opportunity to call crypto investors to transfer their funds from WazirX to Binance. At the same time he tweeted that Binance does not own any shares in Zanmai Labs, however, a co-founder of WazirX, Nischal Shetty, noted in an interview with CoinDesk that “WazirX is the technology which we sold to Binance”.
Rostin Behnan, chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, noted in his speech during the previous week that the agency had increased the budget for this year which will be used for “growing our enforcement and surveillance teams” for the digital assets.
Crypto market cap
FED increased interest rates for another time by 25 bps during the previous week. Such a move was expected by the market, however, the strong jobs market put some doubts into investors' sentiment that future monetary tightening might soon come to an end. Namely, in January, the US added 517K of nonfarm payrolls, which was much higher from anticipated 187K. At the same time the jobless rate fell down to a 50-years minimum of 3,4%. This put investors in a doubt that the FED will halt further rate increases during the course of this year. The crypto market reacted quite positively to the FED`s slower increase of interest rates and added $40B or 4% to its total market cap during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization still holds modestly above $1 trillion. On the other hand, daily trading volumes were further decreased to the level of $82B on a daily basis, from $117B traded previously. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 38% since the beginning of this year, adding total $284B to the market cap.
The crypto market is finishing another week since the beginning of this year in green. Last week almost all coins gained in value. Leading coins on the market contributed the most in nominal figures to the increase of the total market cap. The winner of the week was Ether, with an increase in cap by more than 6%, adding almost $12B to its market cap. Bitcoin lagged behind ETH, with a surge in market cap by $7.7B, which is an increase of 1.7% on a weekly basis. Binance Coin also had a relatively good week, as it managed to increase its cap by $4B or more than 8% within a single week. Another altcoin with good performance was Polygon, with a surge in cap by almost 13%, adding $1.2B in its total value. In a relative terms DASH had good performance, with an increase of 21%, and is followed by Litecoin with a surge in cap by almost 14% and OMG Network, with an increase of 10% within a single week. One of the rare losers in value was Monero, who lost more than 4%. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues to gain strongly, adding 1.4% of coins, while Tether continues to modestly recover, with an increase in circulating coins by 0.8%.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market continues to move in a positive direction. In line with the spot market, both BTC and ETH futures gained during the previous week. On a positive side is also that the longer maturities gained in price more than the shorter ones. In this sense, both BTC December 2023 and December 2024 maturities gained more than 3% both, while ETH futures for the same period gained around 5%. Short term futures were traded higher by 1% for BTC and more than 3% for ETH.
BTC futures ending this year finished the week at level of $24.145, while ETH futures for the same period were traded at level $1.709.