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Nine Spot ETFs Plunge ETH Prices. Will ETH Tank Further?The SEC approved the listing of nine spot ETH ETFs on 23/July. The launch of these ETFs was expected to drive capital flows with spot buying. But it didn’t. ETH prices plunged by 9% over the following two days. Crucially, the decline in the ETH/BTC ratio was a similar 9% as BTC remained resilient. Following what appears to be a sell-the-news event, the outlook for ETH remains mixed as GETH outflows are more than offsetting inflows to the other ETFs. The sharp price decline offers a buying opportunity. Take caution as the risk of further decline persists. Implied Volatility (IV) on puts increased while IV on call declined after spot ETF approvals. ETH ETF APPROVAL ACCOMPANIED BY PRICE DECLINE The SEC provided final approval for eight spot ETH ETFs to trade while also allowing the conversion of the ETHE trust to a spot ETF, making it nine spot ETH ETFs in total. Source: Farside ETH prices dropped by 1.3% on launch day clearly marking a "sell the news" event. ETH plunged nearly 9% over the next two days, returning to its 20/May levels. This earlier date in May marked the onset of rumors about the SEC's likely approval as covered previously . Crucially, the ETH/BTC ratio also declined, highlighting the specific negative impact on ETH distinct from the broader crypto market. OUTFLOWS FROM GRAYSCALE ETHEREUM TRUST DOMINATE NET ETF FLOWS ETH prices were pressured down by massive net outflows led by fund movement out from Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) chiefly due to steep expense ratio. These outflows far outpaced the inflows to other ETFs. Source: Farside Grayscale offers a lower cost alternative in the mini ETH ETF (ETH), inflows into it are small and inadequate to stem the outflow from the much larger ETHE. Launch of Spot BTC ETFs caused outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). Investors then switched over to lower cost ETFs. This time though, the net effect on ETH ETFs has been much more negative. Crucially, outflows from GBTC continued for almost four months after spot ETF launch. ETHE outflows could also continue for a considerable period, dominating net flows in spot ETH ETFs for the foreseeable future. CALL IV HAS DECLINED FOLLOWING ETF LAUNCH IV skew for 25-delta options showed that calls were far more expensive than puts. This reversed sharply after the ETF launch on 24/July, making puts expensive relative to calls, signaling rising fears of pain for ETH prices in the near term. Source: CME QuikVol Though ATM IV has dipped somewhat following approval, it still remains elevated from last month. Source: CME QuikVol HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP ETH ETF launch has been a stark sell-the-news event. Prices have reversed gains. While spot buying may drive positive price action, recent flow analysis from ETH ETFs shows outflows from ETHE dominating. Like GBTC, this trend could continue for many months, with inflows to other ETFs muted, the net effect may be higher selling pressure in the coming weeks. Still, ETH prices have corrected sharply. It trades 12.5% higher from a major YTD support level and above the 200-day moving average. Consequently, ETH prices are unlikely to trend much lower from current levels. Breakout to the upside also remains unlikely in the near-term given the lack of major news flow. A bullish put spread is an astute trade set up to harvest elevated put IVs amid a narrow trading range. A bullish put spread consists of a short put at a higher strike combined with a long put at a lower strike. This position benefits from the net credit earned from the short put position net off the premium paid for the long put. Long put provides the crucial downside risk protection while also reducing the margin required. The proposed hypothetical trade set up comprises of short 3100 put combined with a long 3000 put on CME Micro Ether Options expiring in August. While the position offers a fixed upside and downside, it is crucial to note that the maximum loss for this position (USD -6.5) is higher than the maximum profit (USD 3.5). As such, the position would lose money in case the present downturn in ETH prices continues. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MET1!
by mintdotfinance
BTCUSD falls and starts recovery after geopolitical spike LONGBitcoin on a 30 minute chart fell with reports of the Israeli active retaliatory strikes in the heart of Iran's military and industrial infrastructure in a unilateral action. Iraq has not launched a responsive action as yet. On the chart, price had been stable and sideways in the 64000 range but fell to about 6000 and then recovered to nearly 62,000. I see this as an opportunity to buy BTCUSD at a 3-4% discount going into the halfing period. I will add to a long position. It end up being averaging down or in the alternative getting a solid base for the run up that pundits say will soon come. My initial target to take profit on 10% of the position and raise the stop loss, based on a Fibonacci level is 66800.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
Bitcoin: Thoughts and Analysis Pattern – HL building? Support – 63,860, 60,675 Resistance – 66,710 Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at BTC on its daily chart. Today, we have broken down the current PA we are watching on BTCUSD. Two things have presented themselves to us. Could we have a new HL forming after yesterday's fightback? Could this then set off a new leg higher to test the top of the range? Or two, could this be a false point of support, and will we see sellers make a new move at testing lower-range support? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDLong
by Eightcap
Can Bitcoin break resistance and head to 75K LONGBTCUSD is impending on its third attempt to break through the resistance zone of 69-70K, having hit about 72K on March 13th. Buying volume relative to selling remains high. Both the faster and slower RSI lines remain above 50. I amd holding my long position in BTCUSD and watching to see if price can break resistance. If it can another leg higher could begin. So, if the break occurs, I will add substantially to the position
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
8
MARA fell on a huge earnings beat LONGMARA fell a few days ago while Bitcoin is staging another leg higher along with other coins. On the 30-minute chart, MARA is in undervalued territory below the mean-anchored VWAP and near to the bottom of the high volume area on the volume profile but above the POC line. This seems to be an obvious long trade for me to take. I will set a stop loss of $1.00 below market price and a target of $31 halfway between the mean VWAP and the first upper VWAP the line above it. A call option trade striking $30.00 expiring in three months will be considered. MARA fell from excellent earnings which apparently disappointed some traders /investors. The discount sale is hard to resist given the current fundamentals in the crypto markets.
NASDAQ:MARALong
by AwesomeAvani
MSTR oversold for a long tradeMSTR is now oversold but has a great earnings beat and the cryptomarkets surging to support a bullish idea. The 15 minteu chart shows price sitting on support of the POC line of the immediate volume profile. With confluence, it is above a fully horizontal lower VWAP line that has no slope. Support and resistance horizontal zones are drawn in for reference purposes. I will close my short position of the past day and switch sides here. The RSI indicator gives reassurance as it has pivoted up from the bottom, especially the faster green line. Selling volatility declared the bottom in the immediate term at the same time the relative volume indicator printed a selling volume spiking black bar both immediately before the regular market closed.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by AwesomeAvani
BTCUSD: Weekly continuation?Today's focus: BTCUSD Pattern – Continuation (Bullish) Support – 41,450, 38,514 Resistance – 44,713, 47,540 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Bitcoin on the weekly chart. So far, so good, as buyers continue to push at resistance and push forward with a bullish continuation idea. After rejecting the last low and forming a doji candle pattern, buyers continue to do the right things for a potential continuation pattern. Will we see price contnue to push higher and test 47,540 resistance? We have also reviewed a few aspects of what to look for when scouting for a continuation pattern set-up. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDLong
by Eightcap
Are We Looking At A Bitcoin Bull Trap?In my last TA post, I talked about the possibility of Bitcoin heading back to the $35-36 range before the halving, and I still don't think I am wrong about that. Let's take a look at why... Bitcoin is really hitting some resistance at the current range. When I look at other cryptos like Ethereum, it's much of the same. This pattern looks to me like a bull trap. This is where we bounce out of a significant down trend and this price action tends to catch bulls by the short and curlies as they think the price is going to recover and continue to the moon, but it just doesn't work that way. These retracement pumps tend to get people caught in a FOMO mode and then turn on them and head back in the other direction. I believe this is one of those times. Very rarely does a market like Bitcoin just bounce straight up. It has it's big parabolic rises, yes, as we have seen recently, but this action cannot last forever. In the last cycle, we saw the pump from the 3K range up to nearly 15K and back to the 6.5K range before the halving, so my prediction of seeing a 35K-36K Bitcoin price before April is not out of the cards. My non-financial advice to traders is if you have been trading this reversal from the 38K range, then you might want to think about taking some profits off the table. Just saying, because that is exactly what I am doing. I am also still DCA accumulating BTC as we go along and will stop that action once we break all time highs again, then it will be off to the races and looking for good market cycle take profit signals. How are you playing this Bitcoin and crypto action?
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by thelogicaldude
🚀Binance Coin (BNB) Analysis Overcoming Resistance ChallengeKey Points: Positive Outlier: Binance Coin (BNB) has displayed positive performance, closing the week with a 0.3% increase despite broader market trends. Sustained Momentum: BNB sustained momentum after surpassing the $300 mark at the end of 2023. Obstacle Ahead: The coin faces a significant obstacle in the form of strong resistance at $360, and breaking above this level may prove challenging. Technical Insights: Resistance at $360: The $360 resistance level is highlighted as a significant challenge for BNB. Absence of Substantial Pullback: The absence of a substantial pullback in the rally raises considerations about the potential difficulty in overcoming resistance. Implications for Traders and Investors: Cautious Approach: Traders and investors should approach the $360 resistance level with caution, considering the absence of a significant pullback. Monitoring Price Movements: Close monitoring of price movements and potential developments in the market is advised.
Long
by Richtv_official
1