BITCOIN 50 & 100 SMA Patterns since 2014 -UPDATE - ATH in Q4 ?This is a long post but please read it all, there are some Major things to take note of.
The Main item in this post is the day counts between 50 SMA ( RED ) and 100 SMA ( BLUE ) and the days between Cross overs of these.
The upper day counts on the chart, count from ATH to when 50 crosses below the 100.
Then from that point to when the 50 Crosses back Above the 100
And then, in Grey, the number of days from Cross over to ATH
From 2014 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 504 days
When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 406 days
And from that point to the 2017 ATH = 560 days
From 2017 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 448 days
When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 284 days
And from that point to the 2021 ATH = 686 days ( I am using the Nov 2921 ATH as it was the higher price )
From 2021 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 308 days
When the 50 returned Above the 100 = 441 days
And from that point to the 2025 ATH = The average of the 2 previous is 623 days and takes us to a possible ATH in August, though I feel this is too soon.
If we Look at the day count from ATH to 50 dropping below 100
From 2014 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 504 days
From 2017 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 448 days
From 2021 ATH to 50 dropping Below = 308 days
Could this point towards around 200 days after ATH in 2025?
( This reduction in day count is most likely due ti rapid Profit taking. )
What is interesting is how, on Both the 2014 - 2017 and 2017 - 2021 ATH it was approx 1005 days between the 50 rising above the 100 to when ot fell back below after an ATH. This is Despite a variation in the days count between SMA cross overs.
Using this day count and projecting forward, maybe we can expect the 50 to drop back below the 100 in August 2026, next year
Using the day count from ATH to when 50 Drops below, that was mentioned above, that is around 200 days after ATH and using that August date just mentioned, We are projecting a Cycle ATH in Feb 2026 !
This is NOT a realistic date if we are to remain in the patterns of ATH in late Q4, that we have had every previous cycle.
As I pointed out in a post yesterday, the traditional patterns of Bitcoin HAVE to change this year.
And to many extents, they already have begun.
Take a Look at the angle of ascent of the 50 and 100 SMA's since 2014. Each cycle has seen a reduction of Steepness of Rise.... A slowing down on trajectory and this is most likely caused by the increase of price of a Bitcoin.
The more expensive it gets, the heavier it is to move PA higher.
So far this cycle, PA has landed on the 50 SMA twice and we are SO Close to doing that again.
This has NEVER happened before.
In 2021, we did it once and bounced to the Nov 2021 ATH, so far this cycle, we have done that twice.
This ARE CHANGING and for this to continue, we do need to see PA Bounce again off the 50, when the Bulls are ready.
The ATH in Q4 is open to question as a result. It may happen anytime from Late Q3 to Late Q1 2026
And we are only going to find out when it happens.
But be aware f things changing.
Because they are and so using History may become unusable....a bit like Price discoveryIt will become Trend discovery
Enjoy
