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Crypto Market Still Shows Correction Within UptrendCrypto market is in another bigger decline, impacted by stock market sell-off, but we still see it trading within a higher degree A-B-C correction for wave 4, where wave C of 4 can stop anywhere here in the 1.7T – 1.4T area. It's still a summer consolidation, so as long as Crypto total market cap chart is above trendline and 1.2T invalidation level, there's still a chance for a bullish continuation for wave 5, but we need to see sharp or impulsive stabilization back to 2T area to confirm support in place.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by ew-forecast
Black Swan Incoming (Part 1)This is the start of a series I will be publishing for the rest of the year. I will focus 100% on trying to do the impossible and predict a narrow timeframe of a potential black swan event. **The series will end and this theory will be invalidated if we break and close a weekly above the previous weekly high at 75k.** **Fear and Greed Index (alternative.me)** As you can see, we only have data from 2018. Nevertheless, we have data on the last bull market and rallies since then. As we can see, the index will print lower highs before rallies and bull markets. **What we have now is a break of a multi-year uptrend on the index and currently putting in a lower low, which is not a good sign at all.** **2Week MACD BEARISH CROSS** The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times, it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%. TOPPING DISTRIBUTION FRACTAL APPEARS I have covered this fractal many times on my channel; you can probably find more than ten publications just on this fractal. Why are we seeing a double-top distribution fractal again play out at the top of rallies? How many times are they going to use it? These three occasions, you can see they all happened with very similar timing from peak to peak and the first wave down. Volume Block and Bayesian Trend The Bayesian Trend is currently giving a 41% probability of a move higher from this point. As I'm writing this, Bitcoin has just hit the 0.618, which happens to be the level with a dominant sell order block. It's a classic move, guys: double-topping pattern into a 0.618 retracement rollover, nothing new. Crash Zone Explained Here is why I think "if" a black swan happens, this is the timeframe where it's most likely to happen. We have US elections, the first possible rate cut, and the start of my Fib time. As you can see, this Fib sequence predicted the last black swan event, which was the Covid Crash. It is a very powerful sequence for predicting Bitcoin macro pivot points a year. Last year, unfortunately, was the first time it failed. Nevertheless, I still keep an eye out during these periods. Fed cuts are not bullish, especially after long pauses above 5%. Last time we had rates at 2% when we started cutting, a multi-month downtrend began which led to the Covid crash. NAS100 above. **BTCBTC: Spent Volume Lifespan 7y-10y** The total transfer volume of coins that were last active between 7y and 10y ago. Always a useful tool to see what the big boys are doing and what we see is something pretty shocking. Big volume in these wallets can be connected to major pivot points for Bitcoin in the past. So the largest volume output recorded before 2024 was 1600 BTC. In 2024............... It's the same chart, just included 2024. The output volume in June 2024 was 13,900 Bitcoin. I double-checked it; it's the reason now all the other pivot points look like a small blip on the chart. Insane, 13,900 Bitcoin moved at an all-time high, and then we get a big move down. I guess this metric still works perfectly at finding tops. **Crash Targets** As you can see, we have two main diagonal supports to look at. Honestly, I do not trust any diagonal supports, but the yellow macro one has three cycle low hits, so it holds a lot of weight. The second one, which is the orange dotted line, has two hits and will most likely fail. In my experience, when we have a very clear diagonal support and it comes down for its third touch, it breaks because everyone is looking at the same thing. It's that simple: the entire space is looking at it, so therefore it breaks and everyone gets rekt. The golden pocket sits at 35-37k and at the macro yellow support. This is where I would say the bottom is most likely in. If the black swan plays out all the way, we would most likely see the CME gap at 21k close. This would most likely be a hammer candle that would last seconds. **Invalidation** If Bitcoin were to break the previous swing high at 74k and close a weekly above it, this entire TA would be invalidated. Even if it closed above 0.618 at 67k, the chance of invalidation would increase dramatically.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sporia
43
Crypto Market Forms A Bullish SetupCrypto market made a nice bullish setup formation with a five-wave rally in July, followed by an a-b-c flat correction. It has just came nicely into projected 2.2T – 2.1T support area within wave »c« of an a-b-c flat correction in wave (2), from where we should be aware of a bullish continuation within wave (3). However, keep in mind that we have important NFP report (US jobs data) today, so it's recommended to wait on confirmations, which is sharp or impulsive bounce back above 2.45T level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by ew-forecast
XRP moonshot?Since April 2021 XRP has been banging on the 2/1 Gann failing time and time again. In the last three years we hit the 2/1 Gann 5 times and failed to break it , this monthly candle is extremely bullish and we have reached the apex of this Gann triangle, the chances are we break to the upside. Since March 2020 we have been printing lower highs on the monthly without fail. Stoch RSI monthly buy. Bar pattern fractal from 2015 repeating. Very high chance here XRP breaks 2/1 this time round , there is a lot of momentum.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by Sporia
2
ETHBTC Shows Lower Degree Bullish Setup FormationWe talked about ETHBTC back on July 5th, where we mentioned and highlighted a completed higher degree corrective decline with strong support zone. Since then, we have seen some short-term slow down, which can be just a lower degree bullish setup formation. ETHBTC looks to be finally ready for a bullish continuation within higher degree wave C/3 after we noticed an impulsive rally into wave A/1, followed by recent a-b-c corrective setback in B/2. With current sharp bounce, seems like wave B/2 is completed and wave C or 3 already in progress, especially if the price jumps back above 0.05150 region. Bullish ETHBTC pair also indicates that Ethereum could be doing better than Bitcoin in upcoming weeks. Can other ALTcoins too? Is it finally time for ALTseason?
Long
by ew-forecast
Ethereum Is Poised For More GainsEthereum with ticker ETHUSD is nicely waking up after recent higher degree A-B-C correction in wave (4) that can be bottoming at 2700-2850 area as price recovered sharply in the last two weeks that can be first wave 1 of a higher degree wave (5). Notice that there was also a broken channel resistance and five waves up from the lows up to 3565, followed by a sharp drop which can belong to wave 2 correction. So, more gains can be seen now after a Trump's speech at Bitcoin conference in Nashville. There were a lot of positive comments from Trump that can send the price at least up to 3800 area, but we believe it can be trading in wave 3, especially if ETH breaks above channel resistance line near 3800 level. At this stage, alternatively just be aware of more complex wave 2 that can retest 3000 support level.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by ew-forecast
B I T C O I N So, I believe it's a bit premature to get excited over these most recent bull rallies. Why? It's due to multiple reasons, which I'll share with you all. -Price is reaching the A.T.H. -MH will be hit for 1st time -Price haven't retraced after breaking multiple key levels -Monthly divergence 🐻 -Weekly high's 2nd hit Seeing that price swept the weekly M.R.L. while also running into the EQ, I can see how most will look at this as a sweep for bull continuation, which it is! However, I am viewing it as a set-up for what's truly about to take place (IMO), which is a sweep of equal highs in order to begin the retracement phase to the downside. The range I'll keep an eye on to see when price action start to flip bull/bear is $76K - $80K, and I wouldn't be surprised if the process starts sometime this upcoming week from the H1/H4 perspective. A.O.I. $31,900 - $45,600 S.S. $35,200 I can very well be wrong on my analysis, and if I am, I'll look for the new weekly low ($55,600 - $55,900) to hold for further bull continuation. We all shall see..
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by ChrisJTradesFX
BTCUSD Makes Big Breakout - Now Targeting $67k to $71kBitcoin broke away from my flag formation and has established a new bullish price trend targeting FWB:67K to $71k (or higher). This is fantastic news for bitcoin traders as we should see a very solid rally phase over the next 4+ months. Get ready for $95k++, possibly before the end of 2024. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
IOTX coin, highlighting the head and shoulders pattern and...Analysis of IOTX Coin: Head and Shoulders Pattern Current Pattern: The IOTX coin is currently exhibiting a head and shoulders pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal signal. This pattern consists of three peaks: the middle peak (head) being higher than the two outer peaks (shoulders). Resistance Level: We are now approaching a key resistance level. If the price gets rejected at this resistance, we could see a continuation of the bearish trend. Potential Scenario: • Bearish Reversal: Given the head and shoulders pattern, if the price fails to break above the resistance, it is likely that we will see a bearish reversal. • Price Target: Should the price get rejected from the resistance, the first support level to watch is the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. If this level is breached, the next significant support level would be the lower bound from recent price actions. Summary: • Pattern: Head and Shoulders (Bearish) • Resistance Level: Current price level, acting as a neckline. • Support Levels: • Initial Support: The neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. • Further Support: Lower historical support level from recent price actions. Trading Strategy: • Monitor the Resistance: Watch for price action around the current resistance level. • Potential Rejection: If rejected, look for the price to move towards the neckline and potentially lower support levels. • Stop-Loss and Take-Profit: Consider setting stop-loss orders just above the resistance level and take-profit orders around the support levels. Conclusion: The IOTX coin is showing signs of a bearish head and shoulders pattern. Caution is advised as the price approaches the resistance level. If rejected, prepare for potential downward movement towards the initial support level and beyond. This post should effectively communicate your analysis and trading strategy for the IOTX coin based on the current head and shoulders pattern and the potential rejection from the resistance level. When trading IoTeX (IOTX) or any cryptocurrency, be cautious. All trades are made at your own risk and responsibility. Make sure to thoroughly research and consider your financial situation before making any decisions. BINANCE:IOTXUSDT
by WaveRiders2
BTC: Buying in the Dip?CME: BTC Futures ( CME:BTC1! ) Bitcoin plunged last week as investors focused on the payout of nearly $9 billion to investors of collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox. Spot price slumped to as low as $53,513 on Friday, marking the first time that bitcoin traded below the $55K level since Feb. 27th. Another big bitcoin seller is the German government. In January, German police seized 50,000 bitcoins in connection with the prosecution of movie piracy operation Moview2k. Last week, they began selling thousands of bitcoins, adding to the current selloff pressure. Last Friday, CME Bitcoin Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) settled at 56,685, a drawdown of more than $15,300 or -21% since June. CME Ether Futures ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ) closed at 2,997, down $900 or -23% in a month. Both cryptocurrencies are still up about 25% year-to-date. Opinion: Bitcoin May Rebound and Reach New High The big selling from Mt. Gox and the German government temporarily increased available bitcoin supply in the spot market, pushing its prices down. Both sellers could dump tens of thousands more bitcoins to the open markets in the coming weeks. However, total bitcoin supply is still capped at 2.1 million. The recent halving event in April reduced newly mined bitcoin coming to market while increasing the cost of mining. Meanwhile, the demand for crypto investment could increase substantially with bitcoin ETF funds. Once the dust is settled, we will have a market with limited supply and increasing demand. This is an economic formula for higher prices. Unlike previous market downturns, the recent drawdown in bitcoin prices is not necessarily reflective of a bearish view from investors. The trustee managing Mr. Gox asset needs to sell bitcoins to make investors whole, ten years after its bankruptcy. The German government sells bitcoins also mainly for legal reasons. Investors are not panicking. On the contrary, we hear that the founder of blockchain platform TRON offered to pay $2.3 billion to the German government for its entire bitcoin holding. This proposed private transaction is aimed at minimizing market volatility. Additionally, escalated geopolitical tensions in Europe and Middle East also draw investors to cryptocurrencies, to diversify and hedge their assets. We can find validation from CFTC Commitment of Traders report. As of June 25th, total open interest (OI) for CME Bitcoin Futures is 32,277 contracts. Asset managers has 17,531 contracts in long position, vs. only 493 contracts in short position. The 35-to-1 long-short ratio indicates strong bullish view from long-term bitcoin investors. Overall, I hold the view that bitcoin would come out of the current downturn relatively quickly and would rebound and potentially reach new highs before the end of the year. Long Futures with Put Protection On May 6th, I published the idea, “HODL with a Twist”, and explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in bitcoin for the long haul. Last Friday, the September Bitcoin Futures contract (BTCU4) was settled at 57,695. Each contract has a notional value of 5 bitcoins, or a market value of $288,475. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $69,234. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 4-to-1. It’s cost-effective investing with CME bitcoin futures, vs. buying bitcoins from bitcoin spot market or the ETF funds. From bitcoin price history, we learn that it tended to reach new highs after market downturns. However, each drawdown could be very significant, and at times well over 50%. Today, as I reconfirm my bullish view, I also want to add protective put options to hedge our long futures position due to the risk of short-term market correction. Last Friday, put strike at 50,000 for the September BTC contract was settled at 2,485. A trader will pay $12,425 (= 2,485 x 5) upfront to buy a put option. Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how the long futures with protective put strategy differs from buying spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF. Hypothetical Trade: • Buy 1 BTCU4 contract at 57,695, and set a stop loss at 50,000 • Buy 1 put option on BTCU4 at the 50,000-strike for $12,425 • Trader pays $69,234 initial margin for futures and $12,425 for put options, totaling $81,659 Scenario 1: Bitcoin drops to $36,000 • This is 50% drawdown from the high price reached in June • Futures stop loss at 50,000, and the loss incurred in futures account will be $38,475 (= (57695-50000) x 5) • Put options become exercisable at 50,000, and the gain will be $70,000 (= (50000-36000) x 5) • The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $31,525 (= 70000 – 38475) • Investment return will be +38.6% (= 31525 / 81659) • Comparison: With no leverage, investing in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will lose 50% Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises to $80,000 • This price will be a new record, which is 7.4% above all time high reached in March • Futures gain will be $111,525 (= (80000-57695) x 5) • Put options will expire worthless • The combined profit/loss for this strategy will be $99,100 (= 111525 – 12425) • Investment return will be +121.3% (= 99100 / 81659) • Comparison: each bitcoin gains $22,305 (= 80000-57695). Investment return in spot bitcoin or bitcoin ETF will be +38% (= 22305 / 57695) The above scenarios show that • when bitcoin goes up, futures will have higher returns due to its leveraged nature. • when bitcoin falls, protect put will kick in to reduce losses and may make a profit. There are also risks in this strategy: • If bitcoin goes up only modestly, futures return will lag spot bitcoin investment because of the added cost of the options premium; • If bitcoin falls but stays above 50000, futures loss will be bigger than spot bitcoin investment, since the put options could not be exercised. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:BTC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1