ETHUSD Is Trying To Breakout ETHUSD is coming higher after three waves down from 2023 highs, which can be wave 4 within a higher degree leading diagonal. Notice that price is trying to break out of a downward channel as well, so it seems that bulls can be in play and ready to gain much further, especially now when risk-on is back after FED and NFP data last week showed that rates are about to top.
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Grega
Cryptos
WEMIXUSD Major bullish breakout and it's not finished yetWemix / WEMIXUSD is having the strongest 1week candle since September 18th when it crossed over the 1week MA50 and turned it to Support (closed all candles over it).
It has already hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the Bear Cycle while crossing over the Falling Resistance, the final Resistance.
This puts the crypto into the new Bull Cycle without any doubts and the two Lower Highs of the Bear Cycle can now be targeted.
Buy now and target 2.800 (Resistance A) and after a 0.5 Fibonacci pull back, buy again and target 4.7500 (Resistance B).
It has to be noted that the market remains massively undervalued under 0.00, showing its immense upside potential.
Previous chart:
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CryptoTime- i just took 4 differents Altcoins in this chart as exemples.
- they are mostly all doing the same.
- Breaking up a long winter market.
- if you repeat this simple chart with your Favorite Token or Coin.
- You will propably see the same.
- if you don't load your bags now.
- Later will surely be too late.
- Choose wisely.
- Don't forget cryptos are faster than you.
- Don't go all in and DCA is always the safer method.
Fortune favors the bold!
Happy Tr4Ding !
MANAUSD above the 1D MA200 after 6 months. Bullish confirmed.Decentraland crossed today over the 1D MA200 and if it closes the day there, it will be the first time since April 22nd 2023 to do so. It may remain inside the 10 month Channel Down but crossing over the 1D MA200 where it had the last major rejection (June 5th) is strong enough to cause a breakout. Especially since this rally originated on a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence.
The overbought 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.919, MACD = 0.023, ADX = 49.040) may cause a minor rejection near the R1 level but we expect to hit R2 (TP = 0.53450) before the end of the year. The only condition is for the 1D MA50 to hold.
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💡 BTCUSD: Sideway after a strong spikeThe 7-day streak of price increases came to a halt following a decrease yesterday. However, it's worth noting that yesterday's downward movement, represented by the D1 bar, exhibited a narrow range and a minimal lower shadow, indicating that the selling pressure lacked significant strength.
Moreover, there are ongoing signs of excess, particularly in the form of overbuying. This marks the third consecutive day in which BTCUSD has remained in an overbought state. When an asset is overbought, it tends to be more prone to a downward correction rather than a continued upward trend.
Although the BTCUSDT chart structure supports an overall uptrend on this timeframe, it would be prudent to await a corrective downward move before considering a buying opportunity.
Cryptos: Great Hedge Against the Stock Market DeclineCME: Micro ETH Futures ( CME:MET1! ), Micro BTC Futures ( CME:MBT1! )
On March 29th, I published this trade idea: “Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1.” At the time, bitcoin was quoted $28,348, up $11,800 or +71.3% year-to-date. The main driver was flight-to-safety when a series of US bank failures shocked the financial markets.
On July 17th, I published a follow-up idea, “Crypto Bull Market Appears to Take Hold.” Bitcoin was closed at $30,146, up 1,798 or +6.3% since the first report.
While the 80%+ gain in the First Half had been remarkable, bitcoin was still 56.2% off its record high of $68,789. As price remerged above the critical $30K mark, investor confidence returned. I suggested that bitcoin would continue to rise.
Last Saturday, spot bitcoin price was settled at $34,090. The leading cryptocurrency is up $17,542, or +106.0% YTD in 2023. Current price is 20.3% higher since I wrote the first idea, and up 13.1% further since I published the 2nd report.
Ethereum, the other leading crypto currency, closed at 1,801 on Sunday, up 50.5% YTD.
Key Drivers for Crypto’s Recent Rises
In my opinion, the rising bitcoin prices could be attributed to the following:
Firstly, strong law enforcement helps investor regain trust in cryptocurrencies.
For a long time, bad actors found ways to steal investor’s money, even though the sector was built on blockchain technologies designed to safeguard crypto assets. This year, the SEC fined Binance, the largest crypto Exchange. Public trial of the founder of FTX, the defunct second largest Exchange, sent strong signals of investor protection.
Secondly, crypto market benefits from investors rotating assets out of stocks.
In the First Half, the S&P 500 was up 15% while the Nasdaq rose 38%. However, the boom in market indexes was a mirage, rather than a real broad-based bull market.
The S&P did not behave like a well-diversified stock market index. The “Magnificent Seven”, which include Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon, represent 30% of the entire index and were up 60%, driven largely by the AI hype. At the same time, the remaining 493 companies were up only 3%. Altogether, the S&P 500 was up 15.8% as of June 15th. Similar phenomenon occurred at the Nasdaq index.
In previously writings, I reasoned with my readers that the US stock indexes could no longer carry the heavy weight of hundreds of mediocre stocks. Rising interest rates eventually caught up with them. An average company saw its market value decline as prescribed by the Discounted Cash Flow stock valuation method.
Since the Federal Reserve turned hawkish in recent weeks, investors became more pessimistic and began taking out stock market profits. On October 27th, the S&P closed at 4,117, a 10.3% drawdown from its yearly high of 4,589. The Nasdaq, at 12,643, was down 11.9% from 14,358. Both indexes are officially in the bear market territory.
Meanwhile, bitcoin was up 16.6% in the last three months. Trade volume data suggests that investors are putting money into cryptos.
• Coinbase market data shows that its bitcoin trading volume in October averaged $15.2 billion, up 35% from September and up 21% from Q3 average.
• The S&P 500 traded 3.8 billion shares per day in October, up only 2.8% from September and up just 1.1% from Q3 average.
Thirdly, the Israeli-Hamas conflict triggers a flight to safety. Investors moved money out of risky assets and into relatively safe assets, including gold, US dollar, and cryptos.
• Since October 6th, COMEX gold futures were up 10.2%. At $2,016 per troy ounce, this is the first market close above $2K in over five months.
• Dollar Index was last closed at 106.58, up 0.5% for the same period and up 3.0% YTD.
• Bitcoin was up 24.2% while Ether rose 9.4% since the Gaza War broke out.
Finally, growing expectations that the SEC will authorize exchange-traded funds investing directly in bitcoin pushed it up by more than 25% over the past two weeks. If materialized, this momentum could form the biggest price breakout in years for cryptos.
Trading with Micro BTC and ETH Futures
In my opinion, the above price drivers will run their courses in coming months, giving solid support for the crypto market. However, having a bullish view is easy, putting money on something already doubling in price is quite hard. In crypto investment, choosing the right instrument will make a big difference.
Neither the physical bitcoin nor the bitcoin ETFs offer any leverage. When price goes up, it will take a larger dollar increase to get the same investment return. For example, when bitcoin was trading at $20,000, a price hike of $10,000 represents a 50% return. When bitcoin rose to $40K, a 50% return will require $20K in price increase.
CME Micro BTC futures ( LSE:MBT ) provide leverage and capital efficiency. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $750. November contract was last settled on $3,409.5. At current price there is a 4.5 times leverage built in the contract, which is the ratio of 3,409.5 divided by 750. If futures price goes up 10% to 3,750.45, the price gain of 340.95 would be a 45.5% return, using the $750 initial margin as a cost base.
In my view, Ether has more room to grow comparing to Bitcoin. In the past five years, Ether price closely tracked that of Bitcoin. In 2023, Ether lagged Bitcoin performance. Its 50% YTD gain, while extraordinary, is just half the return Bitcoin managed to gain.
The ETF fund expectation has a direct impact on bitcoin, but also helps pull the entire crypto market up as it inspires investor enthusiasm. Ether’s lower price, at about 1/19th of a bitcoin, would be more attractive to value investors. At the end, if one crypto ETF is approved, there will be more. ETF funds on Ether could be next.
CME Micro Ether futures ( NYSE:MET ) provide leverage and capital efficiency. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 ETH. Initial margin is $49. November contract was last settled on $179. At current price there is a 3.6 times leverage built in the contract, which is the ratio of 179 divided by 49. If futures price goes up 10% to 196.9, the price gain of 17.9 would be a 36.5% return, using the $49 initial margin as a cost base.
Warning: Cryptocurrencies and all financial instruments based on the value of cryptos are highly risky investment.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
BTCUSD: Overbought on weekly but does it matter?BTCUSD has turned overbought on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 70.463, MACD = 1620.000, ADX = 29.717) as it made a new annual High. This is not the only technical benchmark it achieved as it formed a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD and crossed over the formed support that turned into resistance emphatically.
We see the same repetitive pattern on both prior Cycles. As long as the 1W MA50 is supporting (which it has since March), then a 1W MACD Bullish Cross on this level initiates a parabolic rally. So be careful with trading Bitcoin technically on the current price levels as the overbought weekly technical indicators may not correct any time soon. This chart shows that if anything, Bitcoin is entering a phase of aggressive growth, even though the official timing has historically been post-Halving.
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Keep an Eye on BTC/USDTPray for Bitcoin, It's not feeling well!!!
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Bitcoin - BTC this 3-week range candle🟢🔴Bitcoin
Everything between 17.592 and 32.385 is noise considering this 3-week range candle dear BTC and Crypto Nation
🟢zone or🔴zone next?
Comments💭, Likes♥️ & Follow🔗 appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Bitcoin: The Fascinating Repetition Fractal in Its Price HistoryBitcoin is, without a doubt, an asset that displays one of the most fascinating repetition fractals in the financial world. Since its inception, this cryptocurrency has shown a remarkable ability to predict high and low points in its price, with astonishing precision. This predictive ability is closely linked to its well-defined market cycles.
The most distinctive feature of Bitcoin's repetition fractal is the periodicity of its cycles. Bitcoin's market cycles typically last for about four years, during which the price of the cryptocurrency goes through a series of distinct phases. However, within these larger cycles, there are smaller cycles that last approximately one year. It is within these smaller cycles that Bitcoin's incredible predictability becomes more evident.
Approximately every three years, when a new cycle begins, Bitcoin tends to reach a notable price peak. This is followed by a bear market period that lasts about a year. During this bearish year, the price of Bitcoin retraces and often experiences significant declines.
What's most impressive is how this trend has repeated itself over the years, creating a recognizable pattern. The ability to forecast the price tops and bottoms of Bitcoin based on these observations is one of the most fascinating aspects of this asset. Investors and traders often rely on these historical patterns to make informed decisions about buying and selling Bitcoin.
The underlying reason for this fractal behavior is still a subject of debate among financial analysts and experts. Some argue that it may result from cyclical demand, market events, institutional adoption, or even investor psychology. Regardless of the cause, the consistency of these market cycles is remarkable.
CFXUSD: Channel Down bullish breakout. Immediate target 0.1900.Conflux crossed today over the top of the April Channel Down, as well as the 1D MA50. The 1D technical outlook has turned overbought instantly (RSI = 71.137, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 36.832) but that might not weigh against a continuation of the uptrend as the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. The intra day pullback is a buy opportunity, aimed at the R1 level and the 1D MA200 (TP = 0.19000).
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BTCUSD: 31k broke after 101 days! Is 32k next?Bitcoin crossed today over the 31,000 level for the first time since July 14th with the 1D timeframe reaching overbought technical levels (RSI = 79.604, MACD = 886.400, ADX = 44.053). The upcoming 1D Golden Cross has the strength to push the price even higher and in comparison with February, the parallel HH trendline around 35,000. We may then see a pullback to test the 1D MA50 one last time before the end of the year and the next rally to 45,000. That will be the HH of the Channel Up pattern.
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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INJUSD: Giant Cup and Handle targeting 16.50 before correctionInjective crossed over the 6 month Resistance turned overbought on the 1D timeframe but is still balanced on the 1W (RSI = 68.170, MACD = 0.883, ADX = 23.993), which is where we should be looking at as this is a bullish breakout on the higher timeframes. Technically this can keep rising until the 1W RSI hits well within the 80.000 level. We use this breakout buy signal to target the R1 level (TP = 16.500). This is potentially a giant Cup and Handle pattern that can even go as high as the R2 level (25.500) before pilling back. After that, it will turn into a buy opportunity again when it hits the 1W MA50.
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Head, shoulders, knees and toes, knees and toesBTC could be singing "head, shoulders, knees and toes" song soon.
Take a look at the structure, the RSI, and the Fib levels. It all matches my previous ideas.
Also, we have to consider the idea that we're not in 2024 yet, the year of the halving.
This is not financial advice.
Decentraland dump incomingUnlike what people thinks, Bitcoin is in the supply zone, what means that it still has to go down towards 20-22K before the bullrun starts.
As all coins follow Bitcoin, Decentraland has to dump around 30% despite the upcoming event.
Decentraland is following a parallel channel, so it is at or below 0.19 dollars the perfect zone to buy.
Not financial advice.
BSVUSD On the MA100 (1w) for the first time in 2 years!Bitcoin SV crossed today over both the Falling Resistance of the April 12 2021 High as well as the MA100 (1w) for the first time in nearly two years.
If the (1w) candle closes over it, it will be a bullish continuation signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if a (1w) candle closes over the MA100 (1w).
Targets:
1. 100.00 (top of Channel Up and symmetrical +205.87% rise as the previous rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1w) is on a Bullish Cross, still under 0.000 and on a huge Bullish Divergence. This clearly indicates that the market is transitioning to long term bullish. Still early as the 1week MA200 is over our target.
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POLYUSD Crucial bullish break out. Just 1week MA100 left now.Polymath / POLYUSD crossed over the Falling Resistance, which has been supressing the price during the Bear Cycle since the August 2021 High.
In the meantime, the price succesfully crossed also over the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
The last Resistance standing is the 1week MA100 (sitting on the 0.382 Fib).
If broken, take a buy position and target 0.4775 (Fibonacci 0.618 and September 5th 2022 High).
Notice that the 1week MACD is very undervalued, on a Bullish Cross under the 0 mark.
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BTCUSD We're only getting started. Why miss out yet again??Bitcoin / BTCUSD crossed over the 1week MA100 for the first time in 16 months, with that alone being a major bullish signal.
It's another long term signal however that tells you a very strong rally is about to start, which you don't want to miss out.
The 1week RSI made a rebound on its Rising Support and crossed over the MA level.
Similar rebounds on prior Cycles (exception COVID sell off), have been at the start of Bitcoin's parabolic rallies.
Noticeably the time distance between all occurences has been almost the same on a slightly increasing rate (perhaps in line with the lengthening Cycle Theory?).
The rally is beginning. DON'T MISS OUT.
Previous chart:
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ADABTC Time to Dump Bitcoin and buy Cardano?Well based on the whole history of the pair, yes.
As you can see a giant Ascending Triangle on the 1month chart, with the price only now testing its bottom / Rising Support.
Technically, the target from now on is its top at 0.00006500.
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HEXUSD Falling Wedge breakout tests the MA100 (1d).HEXUSD crossed over both the 2 month Falling Wedge pattern, as well as the MA50 (1d).
This is a clear bullish signal for the long term but the short term is still limited by the MA100 (1d), which is unbroken since May 11th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses over the MA100 (1d).
Targets:
1. 0.011800 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) turned quickly overbought over the 70.00 level. That potentially indicates that unless the MA100 (1d) breaks, the market needs a relief pull back or consolidation until those levels get neutral again.
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