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BTC-D1/H4-PERSISTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE!Yesterday's recovery price action, triggered on a closing basis, a "SHOOTING STAR". Indeed, after a failure to recover above the bottom of the weekly clouds and above the daily Tenkan-Sen, the BTC closed @ 36'829. Such kind of price action is, once again confirming this ongoing persisting downward pressure which is clearly showing a mode of SELL ON RALLY and not yet a buy on dips, having in mind, of course, a STRATEGIC VIEW. Nevertheless, it is quite clear that in this strategic and persisting downtrend price action there are plenty of tactical countertrend trading opportunities which should be monitored accordingly in applying a strict Risk Reward approach !!! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's shooting star (similar scenario seen in Dec 24th and 27th) is weighing on the BTC which is likely to go lower in this daily time frame; first level to watch is @ 35000 ahead of former low @ 32'950 Strategic target remains @ 30'000 ahead of the VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL @ 28'600 (former low of June 2021 and also double top trigger level !!!) 4 HOURS (H4) Once again the clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting the upside breakout attempt (38'946) ! Since this rejection, the Bitcoin went down towards a low of 35'774, (50% Fib Ret filled @ 35'947) a couple of hours ago and is currently trying to recover, caught, actually between the Kijun-Sen (35' 948) and the Mid Bollinger Band (36'398). If the Mid Bollinger Band is broken on H4 closing basis, the next resistance level to watch is the Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line @ 37'240 ahead of the most important area to break, which is once again the CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA (37'650-38910); and last but not least the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently @ around 40'300. 1 HOUR (H1) Hourly clouds, for the time being hold and a downside breakout of the bottom of hourly clouds (@ 35'500) would open the door for lower levels (35'240 61.8% Fib ret ahead of 34'233 78.6% Fib ret extension). CONCLUSION . Monitor closely price action on the hourly chart and watch the clouds which will show you the direction :-) Have a nice trading day Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-W1-UNDER SELLING PRESSURE !Last weekly closing level @ 36'293, below the clouds and the ongoing weekly downtrend resistance line which is confirming this persisting selling ongoing selling pressure, still in a mode of "SELL ON RALLY" and not in a "Buy on dips" yet ! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a long black candle which closed for the first time (since March 2020 !) below the clouds !! Such kind of implication should not be underestimated and should be clearly seen as an important warning confirmation signal, calling for further downside towards the psychological 30'000 support level ahead of the former low of 28'600 reached on June 2021. RSI indicator still converging to the downside ! Last but not least 28'600 is a VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL, as it is the MAJOR DOUBLE TOP TRIGGER LEVEL !!!; therefore a breakout of this level would accelerate the downtrend move towards lower levels...(former clouds congestion support 27'000-23'000). DAILY (D1) Yesterday's recovery attempt is currently neutralised by the today's price action which is showing a long black candle in progress (watch today's closing level) as there is a potential bullish divergence in progress which also should, of course, be confirmed, on a daily basis closing level. The Lagging line should also be watch at very carefully. RSI in oversold territory (bullish divergence, YES or NOT, confirmation will be given at the end of today's trading session !) 4 HOURS (H4) Currently in a sideways price action caught between 34'000 on the downside of the channel and 36'575 on the top of the channel. Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Tenkan-Sen. Watch also the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 36'045, in this H4 time frame which should always be seen as a good indicator and considered as a Barometer 1 HOUR (H1) Hourly clouds are working perfectly well in rejecting upside breakout attempts... so far. A sustainable breakout of the hourly clouds would be the first signal calling for further upside. A failure to do it, will just confirm the ongoing bearish and persisting price action calling for lower levels previously mentioned. Have a nice week All the best and take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-H4-SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION !After having reached a low of 34'000, the Bitcoin is attempting to recover a little bit, moving currently in a sideways direction. Levels to watch in this 4 hours time frame are the following : DOWNSIDE : Former low @ 34'000 IMPLICATION : A failure to hold and a breakout of 34'000 would put the focus for lower levels towards 31'250 (minor congestion support) ahead of the psychological 30'000 level and then 28'600 UPSIDE : 36'230 (Tenkan-Sen) IMPLICATION : A sustainable move above 36'230 (H4 closing basis) would open the door for 38'250 (Mid Bollinger Band & barometer in this time frame), ahead of the 38'750 area (Kijun-Sen) Nevertheless, even if such kind of recovery took place, the BITCOIN would still remain in a BEARISH MODE, as the most important obstacle, "THE CLOUDS" are still there (42'000) weighing globally heavily in the ongoing price action ! CONCLUSION : For the time being, any recovery should still be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY IN A BROAD BEARISH PICTURE and not as a strategic trend reversal yet ! As usual, watch and monitor closely shorter intraday time frames to be able to get early signals which would validate or invalidate the scenarios (implications) previously mentioned. Last but not least, if you like my analysis and if you find that it is valuable for you, please, do no forget to : 1) like it 2) add Ironman8848 on your following list Have a nice Sunday :-) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
Bitcoin rallies and declines based on halving cyclesSo here's what I noticed with $bitcoin (which was established back in 2009), Previous halving years: 2012, 2016, 2020 Bull runs (established peak) 2013, 2017, 2021 Correction years: 2014, 2018, ???? Given this pattern, 2022 is looking like a correction year for the OG crypto, Bitcoin, and most likely the rest of the alt coins (i.e. ETH), since all of these coins are pegged to $BTC in one way or another. Possible area of support is the blue line, $24kish. Oh buddy. The next halving year will be on 2024, with 2025 possibly the next bull run. Will be very interesting if this pattern stays and comes into fruition and if it does, hoping that we will nail it down. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by kevvela
BTCUSD-D1/H4-NEGATIVE CONFIGURATION...DAILY (D1) The breakout of the psychological 40'000 support level triggered a downside acceleration which pushed sharply down the Bitcoin towards a low so far of 35'111 ! There is something very important to highlight : Last daily closing level (36'495) was below the weekly clouds that you can see on overlay !!! Such kind of price action should be seen as a very negative signal for the upcoming week !!! Indeed, broad picture becomes more and more bearish and in order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk, the Bitcoin should at least, on a daily basis closing level: 1) recover and hold above the tenkan-Sen, currently @ 39'468 which also, roughly coincides with the former low (39'558) reached on Jan 10th, 2021 and Eeen if this recovery occurs, that only will be the first step for a confirmation of a potential trend reversal 2) next important resistance being the Mid Bollinger band (@ 42'179) which as already mentioned several time, should be seen as "THE BAROMETER" 3) then the Kijun-Sen (@ 42'915) 4) and last but not least the DAILY CLOUDS RESISTANCE ZONE, currently between 49'320 and 55'480 GLOBALLY THE DAILY TIME FRAME REMAINS NEGATIVE CALLING FOR FURTHER DOWNSIDE TOWARDS THE 30'000 AREA FIRST AND THEN FOR A RETEST OF THE 28'600 AREA WHICH WAS THE STARTING POINT OF THE BIG RALLY (28'600-69'000) !!! 4 HOURS (H4) Persisting ongoing downside price action; indeed,RSI is still converging to the downside and there is no positive signal detected yet in this time frame. In this H4 time frame, recent and current price action is telling us that it is currently a SELL on rally mode and not a buy on dips yet, having in mind a STRATEGICALLY approach For tactical short term trading strategies (countertrend) I would strongly suggest to watch and monitor very closely, shorter time frames, which will allow you to act accordingly in protecting LONG TACTICAL EXPOSURE, in respecting strictly a disciplinated RISK MANAGEMENT, in putting in place trailing stop losses which is one of the GOLDEN RULES when you act countertrend !!!! Have a nice weekend and take care Kind regards from Switzerland :-) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
Litecoin Tumbles as Cryptos SelloffLitecoin has sold off with the rest of the crypto market, finding support at our level at $124, which we identified yesterday in the reports. Litecoin was wavering around these levels earlier this month, with a wick testing $120. It's inability to establish new lows, unlike the majors which have all established sharply lower levels, is a good sign for LTC. If the selloff continues, then $120 should provide support as it is not only a technical level, but a low from earlier this month. If not, there is a vacuum zone down to $114. If we see a relief rally, then the $130's should be a ceiling, with targets at $130 and $134 to provide resistance.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
7
BTCUSD-D1/H4- CRITICAL SUPPORT LEVEL !DAILY (D1) Following the expected sharp decline (see previous analysis !) towards a low so far of 37'684, the BITCOIN is now very close to an important support level, which is the 78,6 % Fibonacci extension retracement @ 37273 which also coincides with the bottom of the weekly clouds support area. Global picture remains heavy as technical indicators are still converging to the downside ! In addition the Lagging Line is also confirming further downside ! In order to neutralise this ongoing and persisting downside risk, the Bitcoin should at least recover and hold sustainably, on a daily closing basis, above the Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 41'070 and this only will be the first obstacle to cross-over, the next one being the Mid Bollinger Band (@42'850)(the BAROMETER!) to breakout DOWNSIDE RISK : A breakout confirmed on a weekly closing basis of the clouds bottom of the 37'000 would be seen as a very negative signal, calling for lower levels ; important to note the fragility of the 37'000-28'600 trading seen July 2021, when during the beginning of the rally, this zone gone through in roughly less than 1 week and therefore a mirror effect could also be seen on the opposite side. I would say that there is no real very significant support level except the psychological 30'000 level which is now replacing the previous one @ 40'000 4 HOURS (H4) In this 4 hours time frame, a first RSI bullish divergence, has been detected early this morning, which triggered a small upside move towards 38'680, but with a lack of momentum. More important, ongoing price action is showing a downside pullback in progress, towards the former intraday low, which may, potentially (wait for closing H4), trigger a second RSI bullish divergence. A small bullish divergence has already been detected on H1 which triggered a very small recovery ,which rather looks like a small corrective move recovery only... for the time being. CONCLUSION : ONGOING CRITICAL SITUATION...WATCH AND MONITOR VERY CLOSELY, SHORTER INTRADAY TIME FRAMES WHICH WILL ALLOW YOU TO DETECT EARLY SIGNAL (S) WHICH WILL VALIDATE OR INVALIDATE THE IMPLICATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN LONGER TIME FRAMES. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
The Great NANO Breakout - Part 4NANO has undergone some transformations over the last year. NANO community and development continue to thrive, after overcoming a challenging spam attack earlier this year. The fast, feeless currency now has Kyle Sherman (the CEO from FlowHub - a payment processor for Weed dispensaries that handles $3 Billion in revenue each year) on their advisory board. The currency ticker has been updated to XNO, to reflect its true global currency status. From here on, I will be referring to the Nano currency as XNO. In addition, XNO can now be received as a no-fee option for Ethereum miner payouts at 2miners. Miners are switching pretty quickly to XNO. More can be seen on the nano website. As for the technicals, XNO has been consolidating for months, but support is slowly rising as it attempts to reclaim the 200 day Moving Average (teal): XNO has proven to be fairly stable, but it does have its moments where it can shoot up extremely quickly. Interestingly enough, these pumps often coincide with local peaks from Bitcoin. As long as the market doesn't correct TOO much further, I think we can see XNO shoot for all-time high. $200 puts XNO at a $26 Billion market cap. At current crypto valuations, that sends XNO to the #10 or #11 spot. While I don't necessarily see XNO as being able to maintain a top 10 spot just yet, I can see it venture into the top 20. If the rest of the market continues up, that means XNO at $200 would probably have it firmly in one of those positions. After all, it's been there before. Despite its potential, XNO has a huge amount of resistance overhead, at $12, $17, and between $30-$40. If XNO breaks all-time high, I will be looking to take some off the table. However, if we do not get to that point, and if the market continues to drop, XNO may need to fall towards the ascending support in the broadening structure on my chart. This wouldn't look particularly good. Let's see what else the Nano foundation has in store! Anyway, that's it from me! This is meant for speculation and entertainment, not financial advice. Previous NANO anlyses are linked at bottom. -Victor Cobra
NLong
by VictorCobra
18
BTCUSD-W1-UNDER MAJOR DOUBLE TOP INFLUENCE !WEEKLY (W1) In the weekly time frame, the Bitcoin remains under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!! The ongoing downtrend price action is still intact as the BTC is below : 1) the ongoing downtrend resistance line 2) the Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line (@ 49'537) 3) the Kijun-Sen & Base line (@ 52'141) Note also the important barometer, which is the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 52'007 ! The last weekly closing level (@ 43'107) was slightly above the important weekly clouds support area between 40'860 and 37'360; interesting to also note that the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement extension level is @ 37'245. In order to neutralise and stabilize this ongoing downside price action, the Bitcoin should at least recover and hold on a weekly closing basis above the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around the 45'000-45'500 area. A failure to do it would maintain the focus on the weekly clouds support zone (40'860-37'360) DAILY (D1) Currently in a sideways price action between 42'000 and 44'000. The daily Mid Bollinger Band currently @ 44'105 should be seen, on a daily closing basis, as the first significant level to break , ahead of the ongoing daily downtrend resistance line, currently @ 44'900 and last but not least the Kijun-Sen @ 45'828 which also was the former congestion bottom zone seen in December 2021. Finally, do not forget either, the daily clouds resistance are between 49'500 and 55'500 and only a clear breakout of the top of the clouds would confirm a STRATEGIC TREND REVERSAL ! CONCLUSION : Watch shorter time frames to get more clues. If you go TACTICALLY LONG,(countertrend exposure !), do not forget to monitor the Risk Reward ratio accordingly and with a strict stop losses discipline (trailing stop losses). Have a nice week. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-H4-ONGOING SIDEWAYS PRICE ACTION4 HOURS (H4) The sideways price action continues inside the 4 hours clouds. As already mentioned yesterday, a breakout of the clouds (43'250 upside and 41'7870 on H4 closing basis), in one way or the other will open the door for the following targets : A) UPSIDE : R1 : 44350 R2 : 45'828 (VERY IMPORTANT !) R3 : 47'308 B) DOWNSIDE : S1 : 40'000 (Psychological) S2 : 39'550 (former low) S3 : 37'360 (weekly clouds bottom) S4 : 36'425 (50 % Fibonacci retracement 3'850-69'000 !) DAILY (D1) Two very important levels to look at on a daily closing level basis , which are : 42'000 and 45'828 as a clear breakout confirmed of one of those points will either : 1) confirm the ongoing downside move price action in opening the door for lower levels previously mentioned 2) give a strong trend reversal signal in breaking the KS...nevertheless, even if such kind of move should occur, do not forget the next obstacle (daily clouds) which still weigh on the Bitcoin in a strategical downtrend view !) ONLY A CLEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT OF THE CLOUDS WOULD FORCE A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THE EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO !!! WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing weekly closing level will also (maybe) give additional clues for the upcoming trading sessions ; indeed, on its weekly time frame, the Bitcoin is under the influence of a major double top formation with its trigger level... @ 28'700. Intermediate strong support area being the weekly clouds support zone between 41'000 and 37400 On this time frame, only a sustainable recovery above KS @ 49'150 would be seen as the first positive signal in this weekly picture. Watch also price action of the Chikou-Span which is currently between the TS and the KS and a cross UNDER THE TS or OVER THE KS would also add valuable indication for the upcoming trading sessions. Have a nice Sunday :-) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD-H4-UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS !4 HOURS (H4) In this 4 hours time frame, we can see a sideways price action which is currently roughly in the middle of the clouds area and around the cluster zone (42-625-43097). Such kind of price action is showing some growing uncertainty about further development and a breakout outside of the clouds will have the following implications : 1) On the upside : R1 :38.2% Fib ret @ 44'349, roughly former intraday high of Jan 13 (44'456) R2 : 50 % Fib ret @ 45'828 which should be seen as a key pivot level as it is also the level of the Kijun-Sen on a daily basis R3 : 61.8% Fib ret @ 47308 R4 : 78.6% Fib ret @ 49'415 Very interesting to note that the latter level also coincides with the bottom of the daily clouds resistance area (overlay on the top of the chart) 2) On the downside : S1 : 42'625 (TS) S2 : 41'780 S3 : 41'000 A breakout of 41'000 would put the focus again on the psychological 40'000 level ahead of former low @ 39'559 Daily (D1) Still in an ongoing broad trend price action. Below the Mid Bollinger Band (@ 44'718) and below the downtrend line resistance & KS (@45'828) A clear breakout (daily closing basis !) of both levels would force to a view reassessment of the expected ongoing downside move. On the downside a daily closing level below 42'000 would reopen the door for the former lows. Weekly (W1) b]As a gentle reminder the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the big 3850-69'000 rally is @ 36'425, also roughly the weekly clouds bottom zone ! CONCLUSION : Watch closely at shorter intraday time frames to detect and get early signal (s) which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned. Have a great weekend and have fun. All the best. Take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2