Where is Cardano going? Cardano has been very bearish after the highs of 3.00 hit last summer, so let's examine what my steps are for this one to consider it a buying opportunity again.
The cryptos have been pretty bearish for a while with a few exceptions but Cardano is really falling off hard lately.
The far left chart is the weekly time frame and there we can really see that 3.00 resistance hit last August. The previous resistance was around 2.40 in May 2021 on that rally.
The 1.00 price we can see the strong support I point out with the 3 black arrows and now price is below that key support.
The middle daily chart I point out the January rally where 1.60 resistance was hit. The support and then resistance at the 1.20 mark is very obvious on this daily time frame. Lastly the recent 1.00 resistance. Support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support.
The right chart is the 4 hr and for now the next important support levels are .80 and then .75.
As a starting point I would need to see Cardano back above .90 but really getting back above that important 1.00 price level would then give me confidence on this one.
When you see something like this in such a strong downtrend it is impossible to know where the bottom will be, it is best to see if those support levels hold up and we get that rally back above the mentioned levels.
Cryptos
ETHEREUM - WEEKLY - WATCH THE CLOUDS !WEEKLY (W1)
Currently in a STRATEGIC DOWNTREND , roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds support area !
Ongoing weekly candle is, as for the BTC in progress for a potential INVERTED HAMMER , which of course should be validated or invalidated by the current candle closing !
During this week, the Ethereum failed to recover and hold above the TENKAN-SEN @ 3'033 (short lived intraday weekly high @ 3'044)
RSI below 50, @ 40.69 and LAGGING LINE below both KIJUN-SEN and TENKAN-SEN !
GLOBAL WEEKLY PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY
in this weekly picture, watch the following levels :
2'919 (top of the weekly clouds)
2'348 (bottom of the weekly clouds & former uptrend support line)
A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE POINTS WOULD RESPECTIVELY OPEN THE DOOR FOR :
DOWNSIDE : 1'914 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Long term rally starting @ 86.62 in March 2020 towards the ATH @ 4'870.51 reached in November 2021.
1'700 former weekly congestion bottom
UPSIDE : 3'033 (TENKAN-SEN)
3'272 (Ongoing downtrend line resistance)
3'522 (KIJUN-SEN)
CONCLUSION :
Watch and monitor closely shorter time frames, in beginning with the DAILY (currently below the clouds and below both TS and KS and also below the MBB) then H4,(potential double bottom in progress !!) H1(same than H4) and 15 minutes, to detect early potential bullish divergences signals which will give you the opportunity to initiate TACTICAL LONG POSITIONS, COUNTERTREND !!! This should be managed carefully in adopting a RISK REWARD RATIO accordingly
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC- STILL BELOW THE DAILY CLOUDS...Looking briefly at the WEEKLY picture, a potential INVERTED HAMMER is in progress which usually is considered as a REVERSAL PATTERN (Wait weekly closing for confirmation of this pattern)
In addition watch carefully the bottom of the weekly clouds support area @ 37'516, already tested once this week; a failure to hold above that level on a weekly closing too would add further downward pressure to the BTC for the upcoming week
RSI below 50 @ 43.15 and the LAGGGING LINE is still in the clouds.
Currently still below the TENKAN-SEN @ 40268.
A weekly closing above the TENKAN-SEN previously mentioned would be positive for the upcoming trading sessions.
DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's price action triggered an HAMMER pattern with its closing level @ 39'417, below the daily clouds support level @ 40'054
Ongoing today's price action is showing an upside attempt to recover in the clouds ahead of crossing over the MBB , currently @ 40'323.
IMPORTANT LEVELS TO WATCH ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS ARE THE FOLLOWING :
40'825 (middle of the March 4th, long black candle !)
38'590 (former bottoms & potential double bottom !)
A breakout of one of those 2 levels should trigger respectively an upside move towards, respectively to the Tenkan-Sen @ 41'174 and ahead of the top of the clouds(42'524) first, and potentially higher towards the former high @ 45'332, while on the downside, a failure to hold above38'590, should put the focus on the former daily congestion bottom around the 37'000 area, which has already mentioned in my previous analysis.
Interesting to note the fragility of the 37'000 - 35'000 trading range.
RSI below 50 @ 46.65 and the LAGGING LINE still above the KIJUN-SEN.
4 HOURS (H4)
Below the CLOUDS , currently attempting to recover within the clouds area (39'652-41'875
Above the TENKAN-SEN @ 39'150.
MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 40'580, roughly in the middle of the clouds resistance area.
CONCLUSION :
Once again, watch and monitor very carefully price action on shorter intraday time frames ! That will either validate or invalidate the implications of the scenarios previously explained.
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
LUNA has been on a good recent run but will it continue?One of the best moving cryptos lately has been LUNA and I did take a trade after the very clear signal on the middle daily chart on Feb 24th. Before this price was very choppy trying to figure it self out but then the Feb 24 bullish candle breaking above the 60 resistance was a great signal.
As usual I will have my 4hr chart on the far right, daily in the middle and the weekly time frame on the left side.
The 4 hr chart currently is in a struggle with the 88 resistance with price pulling back. I would like to see that support area of 83.50 hold up if a re entry is in the cards. We can also see the support made on March 4 at the 80 price.
On the middle daily chart, I first want to compare move A to the recent move B and see how similar the move is. It is important to gauge past moves to determine the length of the current trade you may be in as often they will be close. Also watch the candles when they are getting too overextended from the 14 day MA but really look at how parabolic the move is (what degree) the steeper price moves the shorter the move will be. Both A and B are very parabolic.
On the weekly time frame I point out the 100 resistance. It is very normal to show support or resistance at whole numbers but especially psychological levels like 100.
I also point out the nice trendline but also what I mean when I say overextended to the MA. The larger the white space from the candle to the MA the more likely it will be heading back to the MA soon. I base a lot of my style on this.
Overall I liked the recent move on LUNA but did exit after the Feb 28th candle. It was very obvious a pull back was coming based on everything discussed.
If LUNA can hold 83.50 and for sure 80 and then break back above 88 then I will be possibly looking for a re entry.
BTC TA MARCH 5 2022BTC is still looking pretty bearish, altough I do expect it to probably go up to 40-40,5K before dumping again to 35K, yesterday i posted on twitter to take profits near 38,5K and congratulations to those who followed the trade and made profit. If the price gets above 41,5K we will most likely see a 45K retest but this scenario is very unlikely as indicators are all bearish at the moment. For trading this current movement I would wait for price to hit 40-40,5K and short it, but set a stoploss with good risk management as the market can be unpredictable.
BTC-WARNING...BELOW THE DAILY CLOUDS !Yesterday's price action triggered a NEW LONG BLACK CANDLE which closed below the daily clouds @ 39'175 (intraday low @ 38'590)
Currently below both the TENKAN-SEN @ 41'174 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 40460
RSI below 50, @ 44.82
LAGGING LINE testing the KIJUN-SEN !
And last but not least, yesterday's closing was also below the former downtrend resistance (red line !)
Today's price action will be very important and will validate or invalidate 2 important things :
1) THE CLOUDS SUPPORT BREAKOUT
2) THE FORMER DOWNTREND RESISTANCE LINE WHICH BECAME THE NEW SUPPORT (PULLBACK)
A DAILY CLOSING BELOW 38'500 would confirm further downside towards, firstly the former daily congestion zone around the 37'000-36'700 area ahead of the former lows 34'324-32'950.
On the upside, a first breakout of the TENKAN-SEN @ 41'174 would temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk and then should be confirmed by the top daily clouds @ 42'524 (this latter level has already been mentioned yesterday)
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below :
1) The ongoing downtrend line
2) The Mid Bollinger Band
3) The Kijun-Sen
4) The Tenkan-Sen
5) THE CLOUDS
LAGGING LINE TESTING THE CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA AND ATTEMPTING TO CROSS UNDER !
RSI far below 50, @ 28.42 (No bullish divergence yet in this H4 time frame), still converging to the downside
Watch the clouds area (39'290-40'635) as a good indicator for upcoming trading hours as an upside breakout of the TOP OF THE CLOUDS (also the KS) would reopen the door for a potential upside towards the cluster of Kijun-Sen (41'961) & Mid Bollinger Band (42'201).
As usual, watch shorter intraday time frames to get glues and early signal (such as RSI bullish divergence) which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames.
Finally, do not forget to put in place a strict and disciplined RISK MANAGEMENT when you act TACTICALLY in STRATEGICALLY COUNTERTREND (RISK REWARD RATIO depending on your time frame trading action !)
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC-DOUBLE TOP TARGET @ 41'108 FILLED !The technical target (41'108) of the double top formation mentioned yesterday in my previous analysis has been filled (intraday low @ 41'077).
Yesterday's price action, third black candle in a row is confirming the expected trend reversal.
The BTC is currently , roughly in the middle of the DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA, close to the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 40'729 ahead of the CLUSTER
of KS and TS, respectively @ 40'087 and 39'828; the latter level also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 34'324-45'332 recent rally.
VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE BOTTOM OF THE DAILY CLOUDS CURRENTLY @ 39'565 IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN AND SHOULD BE SEEN AS
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT LEVEL IN THIS DAILY TIME FRAME.
Indeed, A FAILURE TO HOLD 39'565 on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS , would weigh further on the BTC and would open the door for much lower levels towards
the former congestion support area around the 37'000 level.
RSI is still above 50, @ 51.22... but converging to the downside.
LAGGING LINE is below the clouds and close to the Tenkan-Sen.
A sustainable recovery above 42'524 (top of the daily clouds) would neutralise temporary the ongoing downside risk.
4 HOURS (H4)
Below :
1) The Mid Bollinger Band
2) The Tenkan-Sen
Currently attempting to breakout the Kijun-Sen support.
A breakout of the Kijun-Sen (@ 41'400) , on a H4 closing basis, would add further selling pressure and would put the focus
on the H4 CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA, CURRENTLY BETWEEN 38'000 AND 37'340
RSI below 50 @ 42.36, converging to the downside
LAGGING LINE still above the clouds, Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen.
1 HOUR (H1)
Below :
1) the clouds
2) the Kijun-Senb
3) the Mid Bollinger Band
4) The Tenkan-Sen
In this time frame, next support to look at is @ 40'192 (61.8% Fib ret of the last move from 37'015 toward 45'332 ahead of 38'794 which is
the 78.6% Fib extension retracement.
RSI below 50, @ 27'98, converging to the downside, no bullish divergence yet.
LAGGING LINE is currently attempting to breakout the H4 clouds bottom level @ 41'225.
CONCLUSION :
As usual watch an monitor very closely intraday shorter time frames price action which will firstly validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames and secondly
those shorter time frames will give you clues regarding potential BULLISH DIVERGENCES which if seen should be used as a TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITIES and therefore MANAGED WITH A DISCIPLINED
RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH (Risk Reward Ratio depending on your time frame !)
If you like my analysis and you find it is valuable for you, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please, also add Ironman8848 on your following list.
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Have a nice day
All the best and take care
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC-D1-REVERSAL IN PROGRESS...GLOBAL PICTURE
DAILY (D1)
After having reached, yesterday, an intraday high @ 35'332 and nearly achieved a full Fibonacci retracement (former high @ 45'850), the BTC lost momentum and as a result, closed slightly above the middle of the previous white candle which mean, that yesterday's price action, roughly triggered a DARK CLOUD COVER (Bearish warning signal); today's ongoing downside price action is currently confirming this downward selling pressure and a DAILY CLOSING BELOW 43'000 would weigh further on the BTC and therefore open the door for lower levels.
Daily clouds area is between 42'524 and 39'093
RSI still above 50, @ 57.93
LAGGING LINE failed to enter in the daily clouds and is in progress to reverse too.
The MID BOLLINGER BAND, my own barometer,is currently @ 40'825 and also roughly in the middle of the daily clouds support; this level should be watch at very carefully as a daily closing below this point. would directly put the focus towards the daily clouds bottom around the 39'000 level.
WEEKLY (W1)
A quick look at the weekly char shows , for the time being a failure to breakout the weekly top clouds resistance area !
Watch the clouds in this time frame as a broad indicator for further development.
4 HOURS (H4)
DOUBLE TOP FORMATION IN PROGRESS , coupled with a double doji and a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE !!!
Trigger level @ 43'220
Technical target (in case of downside breakout confirmed) @ 41'108
Interesting to note that the H4 Kijun-Sen is @ 41'174 and should also be seen as a PIVOT LEVEL in this H4 time frame
1 HOUR (H1)
As for H4, a double top formation is in progress.
Currently, already, below :
1) Kijun-Sen
2) Mid Bollinger Band
3) Tenkan-Sen
4) the clouds
The double top target @ 41'108, coincides also roughly with the H1 clouds bottom support @ 41'241; the 50 % Fibonacci retracement of the 37'015-45'332 recent rally is @ 41'173
LAGGING LINE below TS and KS but still above the clouds.
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC-H1-TRIANGLE BREAKOUT IN PROGRESS !Looking at the intraday hourly price action, a TRIANGLE PATTERN has been identified !
Indeed, after having reached a high @ 44'981 which triggered a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE, the BTC moved in a sideways, slightly down price action, in making a TRIANGLE PATTERN which is currently in a downside breakout progress (watch pullback !) which will validate or invalidate this triangle formation.
A breakout confirmation would open the door for a technical target @ 42'280 !
38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 41'937 (37'015-44'981 rally)
50 % Fibonacci retracement being @ 40'998 (also the KIJUN-SEN) which is also the hourly clouds bottom support area and which should be seen as a PIVOT LEVEL in this short term hourly time frame.
Interesting to note that 41'110 is currently the level of the MID BOLLINGER BAND on the 4 HOURS time frame
A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE 41'000 WOULD PUT THE FOCUS AGAIN ON THE 39'000-37'000 FORMER CONGESTION SUPPORT AREA
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC - STRONG RECOVERY !As mentioned in my previous analysis, shorter time frames should be used to validate or invalidate the expected scenario and in the case of the Bitcoin
yesterday's price action has really been a school case...
Indeed, the BTC went sharply up and broke successfully the resistance levels on each intraday and daily pictures.
FOR THE TIME BEING, THE BITCOIN IS STILL IN THE WEEKLY CLOUDS RESISTANCE AND NEXT WEEKLY CLOSING WILL VALIDATE OR INVALIDATE A BREAKOUT OF THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS.
The MONTHLY FEBRUARY CLOSING LEVEL @ 43'178.98 WAS AS THE SAME LEVEL THAN THE LONG TERM DOWNTREND RESISTANCE LINE
MONTHLY (M1)
February closing level was above both the KIJUN-SEN @ 36'425 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 38'706
At the same level tha n the long term downtrend resistance line.
Ongoing March price action will validate or invalidate this upside breakout at the end of the month.
WEEKLY (W1)
Above the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'268 but still in the clouds and below the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen
RSI below 50, @ 47.56
DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's sharp recovery went up towards an intraday high of 44'256, filling in its way the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement extension @ 43'383 and with a daily closing above the clouds @ 43'179
RSI above 50 @ 58.69
Today's closing level will be important and will validate or invalidate the top of the clouds breakout.
Important to note that the 37'000 support level hold well.
4 HOURS (H4)
Above the cluster of KS and TS @ 40'635 which should now be seen as the new support level area in this H4 time frame
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently still above the Tenkan-Sen @ 42'953 and in this short term time frame the BTC looks to lose some momentum...
CONCLUSION :
Again watch shorter intraday time frames and monitor carefully price action in each time frame which as seen yesterday, will validate or invalidate price action on longer time frames.
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC update Afer losing the weak resistence we are irecter lower before we will see a possible reversal or a bullish momentum.
MACD looking still not ready to jump into green zone.
My long entries will be between 35600-36000 . in this range we will find a good support if we lose this support (breaking down 35.6k) then we are heading futher low till reversal
I will be updating this idea when my limit orders will be opened.
Target will be arround 41k
DYOR!
BTCUSD- CRITICAL LEVEL FOR THE LAST W1 CLOSING !WEEKLY (W1)
Another high volatility price action seen last week between a low of 34'324 and a high of 40'330... which provided, several TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND WHICH RESTARTED
TWO WEEKS AGO @ 45'850 !!!
Failure to hold above the psychological 40'000 and close above 40'225 which is the middle level of the previous weekly long black candle should be seen as an additional negative signal.
Indeed, the last weekly closing level @ 37'712 was just slightly above the weekly clouds bottom support @ 37'360 which means, that once again, CLOUDS should be watch at very carefully.
THIS WEEKLY CLOSING WAS BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN (40'268) WHICH ALSO COINCIDES ROUGHLY WITH THE 40'222 IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
RSI below 50, @ 40.80.
LAGGING LINE below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen and currently, roughly in the middle of the clouds !
In this weekly time frame, LEVELS TO WATCH AT, ARE THE FOLLOWING :
UPSIDE :
R1 : 40'268
R2 : 42'170
R3 : 43'937
DOWNSIDE :
S1 : 37'516
S2 : 35'020
S3 : 32'950
A FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE FORMER LOW @ 32'950 WOULD DIRECTLY PUT THE FOCUS TOWARDS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 30'000 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE MOST AND VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT 28'600 LEVEL (DOUBLE TOP TRIGGER LEVEL !!!)
DAILY (D1)
Last daily closing (37'712) below the clouds (38'050) but was just slightly above the Daily Tenkan-Sen @ 37'397.
The Tenkan-Sen should be seen as a good support indicator in this daily time frame as a failure to hold on a daily basis closing above it would open the door for lower level towards the 37'000 area which is the bottom of the price action seen over the last couple of days.
A daily closing below 37'000 would be another negative signal for the upcoming trading sessions the 37'000-35'000/34324 trading range looks very fragile !
RSI below 50, @ 4125
LAGGING LINE below the Kijun-Sen but still slighly above the Tenkan-Sen.
4 HOURS (H4)
After having roughly tested the 37'000 support level (intraday low so far being 37'015), below the H4 clouds support, the BTC is currently attempting to recover.
Currently above the Kijun-Sen @ 37'327 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 34'324-40'330 rally) BUT below the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'451 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 38'817.
THE MID BOLLINGER BAND and the TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS CURRENTLY @ 39'755 SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE LEVELS TO BREAK IN ORDER TO CONFIRM THIS SHY RECOVERY.
On the DOWNSIDE, a failure to hold on a H4 closing basis above 37'000 would also be an additional warning signal calling for further downside towards 36'618 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of 35'609 (78.6% Fib extension) in this H4 time frame.
RSI below 50, @ 44.64
LAGGING LINE still above KS and TS
Last but not least, watch the last price action seen over the last 2 candles (2 successive DOJIS) which means growing uncertainty and indecision !!!
HOURLY (H1)
Below the clouds, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen.
Just above the Tenkan-Sen @ 37'696
In this H1 time frame watch 37'696-37'400 as the first support zone and on the upside watch the cluster @ 38'450-38'500 ahead of the clouds resistance area 39'000-39'200
CONCLUSION :
The BITCOIN remains in a BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND and is for the time being, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, A SELL ON RALLY AND NOT YET A BUY ON DIPS !!!
Nevertheless, as already mentioned several times, there are plenty of TACTICAL COUNTERTREND TRADING OPPORTUNITIES which should monitored and managed accordingly in applying a strict and appropriate RISK MANAGEMENT approach and this depending of your targets and your time frame !!!
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BTCUSD-50% FIB RET @ 40'087 FILLEDWEEKLY (w1)
The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'087 of the last downside move (45'850-34'324) has been filled , intra-day high being 40'330.
Upcoming weekly closing level will be very important for further development; indeed, a weekly closing above 40'225 would trigger a PIERCING LINE PATTERN, which would be a first positive bullish signal for the next week.
DAILY (D1)
Currently roughly in the middle of the clouds resistance zone with its top level @ 42'524 which remains, on a DAILY BASIS, the pivot level to break.
Last daily closing @ 39'231, just slightly below the TENKAN-SEN @ 39'264.
The KIJUN-SEN @ 40'087 has briefly been broken on the recent price action but the BTC, failed, so far to hold above it !
There is a POTENTIAL SHOOTING STAR IN PROGRESS (wait daily closing level for validation or invalidation !)
On the DOWNSIDE , the first significant support area remains the former congestion zone between 38'350 and 37'000.
TS is @ 37'660 and daily clouds bottom @ 37'410.
The LAGGING LINE is attempting to breakout both KS and MBB.
RSI still below 50, @ 46.71
On the UPSIDE , THE 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is @ 41'447 ahead of the KEY PIVOT RESISTANCE LEVEL @ 42'524 previously mentioned.
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently in the clouds zone (38'364-40'577)
The TENKAN-SEN @ 38'826 which currently coincides with the ongoing short term uptrend line) is working as the first support level, area of the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 37'907 and then the KIJUN-SEN @ 37'327 .
RSI is moving sideways and showing some lack of momentum...
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently in a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE MODE !
Watch carefully the H4 clouds bottom support zone @ 39'330 (in overlay in the hourly chart) ahead of the cluster of MBB and KS @ 39'200-39'180 as short term barometer indicators ! (closing basis)
The H1 clouds support area is between 37'500 and 37'000 and for information the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the last rally from 34'324 towards 40'330 is @ 37'327
CONCLUSION :
Watch and monitor closely intraday short term time frames which would help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned in W1, D1 and H4
Have a great weekend and all the best.
Take care.
IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
Precious Metals vs Top Cryptos Reaches Golden CrossThis custom chart of precious metals Gold and Silver versus cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Etherium (each in their respective ratios) has reached a Golden Crossing (50DMA moving above 200DMA) for the first time in over 2 years.
I've been amazed at this dynamic custom chart and the patterns that come through here. I find that it's often easier to do technical analysis on charts where traders aren't already using TA to trade. Some say it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it seems clear to me that it TA works even better in places where other people aren't really using it (which would suggest the opposite is true). But I digress...
This golden cross is BULLISH
From the looks of it, PMs may command a higher increase in value for the next 2 to 4 years.
There is an easy way to trade between cryptos and gold/silver. I prefer the Kinesis platform. The PMs that they have on blockchain are actually allocated contracts in the name of the holder. What's more is you can take delivery if you so choose, or store it and gain yields. There's 5 different ways to make yields on your metals, but you'll have to watch the videos to learn about them. kms.kinesis.money
I'm not saying sell all your cryptos (none of this is financial advice btw). But it seems wise to have a plan like that in order. Or you can use the platform to set your buys and sells so you can sleep well at night knowing that when these markets move they will be working in your favor. Stay safe out there!
BTC-AS EXPECTED HIGH VOLATILITY OCCURED...As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday morning we saw an increasing volatility which triggered a trading range between 34'324 reached early yesterday morning towards an intraday high @ 39'720.
WEEKLY (W1)
Main levels to look in this weekly time frame remains :
UPSIDE : 42'524 /43'673
DOWNSIDE : 37'365
DAILY (D1)
Currently in the bottom of the clouds.
BUT STILL BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN @ 39'264, the KIJUN-SEN @ 40'087 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 41'244
The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'554 of the last downside move has been filled with an intraday high @ 39'720.
There is a daily congestion support zone to look at, between 38'450 and 37'000... the daily clouds bottom support being currently @ 37'325
RSI below 50 @ 43.39
4 HOURS (H4)
A BULLISH DIVERGENCE triggered the big rally and in this H4 time frame the BTC is currently above the TS and MBB @37'022) and above the Mid Bollinger Band @ 37'419.
Neverteless, still below the H4 clouds resistance zone which is between 40'177 and 41'379
RSI above 50 @ 56.44
1 HOUR (H1)
WARNING !
Bearish RSI divergence in progress !
Tenkan-Sen in support @ 38'395 in this short term intraday hourly time frame ahead of MBB @ 37'203 (which is also the ongoing short term uptrend support line) and the Kijun-Sen @ 37'022.
A failure to hold, on H1 closing basis,above the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'395, would be the first warning signal of potential reversal and a breakout of the 37'000 area would give confirmation for further downside !
CONCLUSION :
Despite the sharp rally seen yesterday, THE BTC IS STILL, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, in a BEAR TREND , and recent price action, was still a CORRECTIVE MOVE IN A BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND
A DAILY CLOSING ABOVE THE TENKAN-SEN @ 39'265 WOULD BRING THE FIRST WARNING SIGNAL OF A BOTTOM IN PLACE HAVING IN MIND THAT, AS LONG AS THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS @ 42'524 WILL NOT BE CLEARLY BROKEN ON THE DAILY BASIS... THE DOWNSIDE RISK WILL REMAIN !
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC-D1-WATCH THE CLOUDS & RSI !As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis, the recovery attempt has been short lived and the failure to recover above the 39'000 area triggered a new wave of selling pressure which pushed sharply down the BTC towards an intraday low of 34'324 !!!
After this sharp decline, it is likely to see some little recovery which, in this broad bearish strategic picture, should be seen as a corrective move only.
Watch H4 and H1 for tactical view.
STRATEGIC VIEW :
MONTHLY (M1)
Ongong bearish picture.
Currently below the CLUSTER OF MBB (36'704) AND KIJUN-SEN (36'425)
61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 28''737
78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 17'792
RSI converging to the downside
WEEKLY (W1)
Currently below the clouds !
Next significant support level @ 32'950 former low ahead of the psychological 30'000 level.
THE VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL REMAINS 28'600 0 WHICH IS :
1) The Double top trigger level (Warning, warning and warning ¨)
2) Roughly the 61.8% Fibonacci retraccemtnt (28'737) of the big 3'850-69'000 rally.
This level should really be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMEN T and it is likely to be difficult to break straightly !
A CLEAR AND SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT OF 28'600 WOULD CREATE GREAD DAMAGE FOR THE BTC WHICH IS ALREADY CURRENTLY IN TROUBLE, HAVING IN MIND, OF COURSE, A LONG TERM BROAD PICTURE....
DAILY (D1)
Below the clouds.
Lagging line below the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'457, the Kijun-Sen @ 40'087 and the MBB @ 41'203
Watch price action on RSI
In this daily time frame, only a clear recovery above 39'350, (as already mentioned in my previous analysis) would force to a view reassessment of the still ongoing downside strategic move...
TACTICAL VIEW :
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below the clouds (41'339-42'117)
Watch former low @ 36'370 as the first warning indicator of a potential intraday short term reversal.
Then 36'823, 37'237 ahead of 37'656.
A clear breakout of the MBB @ 37'656 would be constructive on this H4 time frame
Watch also RSI price action to detect bullish divergence !
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently below the clouds too (37'755-37'931)
TS @ 36'092
KS @ 36'813 (which is also the H4 Tenkan-Sen !)
Watch the Mid Bollnger Band, currently @ 37'308
CONCLUSION :
Al already mentioned several times in my previous analysis, there are, in this high volatility environment, plenty of tactical trading opportunities BUT NEVER FORGET TO ACT ACCORDINGLY WHEN YOU INITIATE POSITIONS COUNTERTREND AND PLACE STOP LOSSES DEPENDING ON YOUR TARGET AND YOUR TIME FRAME !!!
Have a nice trading day
All the best and take care
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki