Get started

Cryptotrade

Potential Short Opportunity for BTC/USD at $61,000Overview: In this analysis, I present a short trade setup for BTC/USD with an entry point around $61,000. This idea is based on the confluence of volume profile levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. Volume Profile Analysis: The volume profile indicates significant trading activity around the $61,000 level, which suggests it as a strong resistance zone. This implies that there may be considerable selling pressure once the price reaches this level. Fibonacci Retracement: Applying the Fibonacci retracement from the swing high to the recent swing low, the 0.618 retracement level aligns closely with the $61,000 mark. This confluence adds strength to the resistance at this level, providing a high-probability short entry. RSI and ADX Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing bearish divergence, indicating a potential reversal or pullback. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at a high level, suggesting a strong trend which could soon see a correction. Trade Setup: Entry : Short at $61,000 Stop Loss : Above the $62,500 level to allow some room for potential volatility. Target : First target at $56,000 (next significant volume node), second target at $50,000 (support zone and 1.618 Fibonacci extension). Conclusion: This trade setup leverages technical analysis tools to identify a high-probability short entry point. As always, ensure proper risk management and adjust the trade parameters based on market conditions.
Short
by wittawatkhondee55
2
🟣⚙️ DOT Trade Analysis ⚙️🟣📉 Market Outlook: Polkadot (DOT) has reached a significant support level after consolidating for approximately five days. This presents a potential low-risk opportunity to initiate a long position. 🎯 Trade Plan: Entry Range: Consider entering the trade between $6.00 and $6.50, aligning with the current major support. Profit Targets: Aim for profits at $8.00 - $8.50 or $9.50 - $10.00 resistance levels. Stop Loss: Implement a stop-loss just below $5.70 to manage downside risk. 📈 Trading Strategy: Entry: Initiate a long position within the specified range. Targets: Take profits at identified resistance levels. Risk Management: Utilize the specified stop-loss to mitigate potential losses. 🚨 Note: Stay attentive to market movements and adjust your strategy accordingly! #DOT #TradingAnalysis #CryptoTrade 🌐📊
Long
by Richtv_official
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD daily guidance is neutral with a *bullshit* bias. Recommended ratio: 60% ETH, 40% Cash. * SUNDAY SCARIES WATCH . Russia has been notifying all Russian citizens in Kherson (Ukraine) to evacuate immediately due to the threat of impending "terrorist attacks" by Ukrainians . A few weeks ago, Putin announced that Russia officially recognizes Kherson and three other territories in Ukraine as annexed territories of Russia. This is yet another example of Russian war engineering to justify a continued and intentional escalation of the types of attacks they launch on Ukraine. The Chinese Communist Party has concluded their twice-a-decade Congress and reshuffled their Politburo and central committee to feature more Xi loyalists in preparation for his third consecutive five-year presidency . Speculators view this reshuffling as a signal that China is readying to formally attack Taiwan in the coming months. Through a war games lens, two full scale wars in different parts of the world would diminish the magnitude of a counteroffensive by the US and NATO, something military strategists on all sides are likely aware of. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending up at ~$1310 as it continues to trend sideways along $1270 support for what is now thirty three consecutive sessions. Volume is currently Low (moderate) and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish just below the 50 MA ($1408) at $1355, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 46.5 as it approaches the upper trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle from February 2020 at ~52 as resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 63 as it continues to test 46.76 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -19, the next resistance is at 28. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 29 as Price continues to trend sideways, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to push higher here then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1400 as resistance which is just below $1427 resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $1270 minor support before potentially heading lower to $1k minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1269.54.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is neutral bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash. *BULL TRAP WATCH. Bitcoin is at a critical resistance and is currently testing a one year descending trendline. Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Energy, Gold, GBPUSD and JPYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries, VIX, Agriculture, EURUSD and CNYUSD are up. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned today leaving the Conservative Party looking for its third Prime Minister in as many years . Chatter from Federal Reserve staff continues to point to a 75bps rate hike with a strong possibility of 100bps, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (not a current FOMC member) said today that he expects FFR to be well above 4% by year end (it's currently at 3%-3.25%) . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently testing $19417 support for the fifty-third consecutive session as it retests the descending trendline from November 2021 for the first time since March 2022; this is a critical juncture that will influence whether BTC will retest $15k or breakout to $24k. Volume is on track to be both Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $20k, this is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43.76 as it approaches a retest of 42.41 support, if it breaks below this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~35. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 25 as it's still technically testing 29.70 resistance. MACD remains bullish for a fourth consecutive session but continues to trend sideways at -175 for what is now nine consecutive sessions; it's technically testing -232 minor support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 12 as Price is seeing selling pressure, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins trending up as Price continues to fall this would be mildly bearish, and if it falls as Price continues to go down this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout of the descending trendline from November 2021 at $19417 resistance then it will likely aim to retest $24181 resistance ; it's important to be wary of a potential Bull Trap in this environment. However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$15.5k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
2
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% ETH, 40% Cash. *Cryptos are mixed with certain altcoins like ANKR ( hot off of APTOS integration news ), ATOM and MATIC up while the broader market is mostly flat. Equities, Equity Futures, Gold, EURUSD and 30yr US Treasury bonds are up while VIX, Energy, Agriculture, 10yr US Treasury bonds, DXY, GBPUSD, JPYUSD and CNYUSD are all down. Netflix beat Q3 expectations on both top and bottom lines . Russia continued its renewed attacks on Ukraine today and Ukraine reports that 30% of their power grid infrastructure has now been damaged . Key Upcoming Dates: US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19; 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/19; S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending up at ~$1315 after bouncing off of $1270 minor support as it looks to retest the 50 MA as resistance at $1427 resistance. Volume is currently High (low) and on track to break a two day streak of buyers dominance if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1371, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 46 after forming a peak just below the upper trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle from February 2020 at ~49. Stochastic remains bullish, is currently trending up at 86 and is still technically testing 81 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -31, the next resistance is at 27.77. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 31 as Price is slowly rising, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to continue up from here then it will likely retest the 50 MA as resistance at $1427 resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $1270 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1270.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% BTC, 75% Cash. * SUNDAY SCARIES WATCH . As the world awaits Putin's next move on Ukraine and the West, the White House sent another $725m to Ukraine and Elon Musk reinstated free Starlink services to Ukraine today. Additionally, the White House's newly imposed sanctions on Chinese chipmakers is starting to be felt as many Chinese American workers are fleeing back to the USA and both supply + demand for Chinese chips is starting to see weakness. Key Upcoming Dates: US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19; 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/19.* Price is currently trending down slightly at ~19130 as it continues to test $19417 support for what is now thirty one consecutive sessions; it's approaching the descending trendline from November 2021 which will likely coincide with the 50 MA at ~$19800 as resistance. Volume was Low (moderate) and favored sellers for a second consecutive session in today's session; Price continues to trade in the POC. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $20280, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 45 after bouncing off of 42.41 support for the fourth time in the past month. Stochastic crossed over bearish today and is currently trending down at 10 as it approaches max bottom. MACD remains bearish for the second consecutive session and is continuing to trend sideways at -232.42 minor support for the sixth consecutive session. ADX is currently trending sideways at 15.5 as Price does the same at ~$19417, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and breakout above the 50 MA + the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$19800 as resistance then it will likely aim to retest $24181 resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$15k as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $19800.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
2
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% ETH, 60% Cash. * SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . US September Retail Sales came in at $684b , virtually unchanged from August but still 8.2% above September of last year. This strong consumer data will surely influence the Federal Reserve to continue pondering raising FFR by more than 75bps on November 2nd. The 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate is 2.8% , down from 2.9% on 10/7. Preliminary results for the October UofM Consumer Sentiment Survey show an increase from 58.6 in September to 59.8 in October. Putin made more threats regarding a "global catastrophe" to NATO should they become directly involved in Russia's war against Ukraine. He also set the stage for reclosing the humanitarian corridors Russia agreed to allow Ukraine to use to transport grain and fleeing citizens; this could lead to more supply chain woes in the near future. Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures, Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD and CNYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up. Key Upcoming Dates: US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19; 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/19.* Price is currently testing $1270 minor support for the fifth consecutive session as it continues to trade in the largest trading zone (POC) on the chart for twenty three consecutive sessions now. Volume is currently High (moderate) and on track to favor buyers in today's session after favoring sellers in yesterday's session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1389, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 43 after bouncing off of the uptrend line (also the lower trendline of the massive Symmetrical Triangle) from November 2018 at 36.91 support, the next resistance is the descending trendline from February 2020 at ~51.25. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently testing 46.76 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is trending up slightly at ~-35 as it continues to test -46.46 minor resistance for the ninth consecutive session. ADX is currently trending sideways at 31 as Price attempts to defend $1270 minor support, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to defend $1270 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the 50 MA as resistance at $1427 resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $1k minor support before potentially retesting $776 support for the first time since January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1270.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% BTC, 65% Cash. * BULL TRAP WATCH . The FOMC Minutes confirmed what every investor should be aware of and that is that the Federal Reserve will remain committed to raising the federal funds rate to restrictive levels until a meaningfully sustained decrease in inflation is observed. FOMC members noted that despite a slowdown in the labor market, the economy is still in good enough shape to withstand more rate hikes. Cryptos, Equities, Commodities, VIX, GBPUSD, EURUSD and CNYUSD are flat or down while DXY, US Treasuries, JPYUSD and Equity Futures are up. CPI reports tomorrow and will likely send markets lower if it doesn't show signs of slowing. Key Upcoming Dates: September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13 ; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently trending down at ~$19100 and is risking losing $19417 minor support. Volume broke a two day streak of seller dominance and finished today's session High (low), it's currently on track to favor sellers if it closes tomorrow's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18500, this margin is bearish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43.75 as it approaches a retest of 42.41 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently completing a trough as it approaches a bullish crossover at 6.50. MACD is currently beginning to trend bearish at -232.42 minor support after 3 consecutive sessions of trending sideways at this level. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 13.50 as Price is beginning to trend lower and risk losing $19417 minor support. If Price is able to bounce here, be leery of a potential bull trap as it approaches a retest of the 50 MA at ~$19700 as resistance which should also coincide with the descending trendline from November 2021 (as resistance). However, if Price breaks down here and loses $19417 minor support, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $20k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BearishBTCUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% BTC, 52% Cash. * SUNDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are largely flat with some altcoins seeing buying pressure as we get halfway through the weekend. Someone has used a car bomb to explode the only supply line from Crimea to Russia and many presume it to be the Ukrainians , which reignites a whole new round of fears regarding the potential usage of chemical or nuclear warfare by Russia on Ukraine. Of course in this scenario, it would almost certainly result in NATO intervention and may finally be the event that gets the media to use the term World War 3. Because war is historically bullish for DXY, if rate hikes continue into 2023 and war escalates, you can almost assuredly bet that DXY will hit $120 like it did in the early 80's and 2000-02. And if DXY keeps going higher, "Risk-On" assets like Growth Stocks and Cryptos will likely keep going lower. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently testing $19417 support for the second consecutive session as it gets closer to retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$20200 as resistance. Volume is Low (low) and currently on track to favor sellers for a fourth consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18.3k, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 46.5 as it approaches a retest of the descending trendline from January 2021 as support at 42.41 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 55.55 support with no signs of trough formation, the next support after that is at 29.70. MACD remains bullish and continues to trend sideways for the third consecutive session at -70, it's still technically testing -232.42 minor support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 with no signs of trough formation as Price is falling, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$20k as resistance before potentially retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$20200 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely continue to trend sideways until it reaches the descending trendline where it will either break out of the almost one year long descending trend or be rejected and fall to retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at $15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two more consecutive closes above) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% BTC, 90% Cash. * US August Consumer Confidence rose for the first time after three consecutive months of decline and is now 103.2 , up from 95.3 in July. Meanwhile, Russia is furthering the WW3 narrative and the Federal Reserve is pushing the US into a recession... very 2022. Though Cryptos are mixed in price action today they are fairing better than Equities which have continued to plummet. Commodities, Equity Futures, EURUSD and Gold are all down while VIX, US Treasuries and DXY continue to go higher with DXY reaching a 22 year high of $112 in today's session. As long as DXY keeps going up, which it likely will if FFR keeps going up, it's going to suck liquidity from just about every other asset. Russia and China are currently wildcards that can either exacerbate or mitigate a financial migration to DXY as a safe haven asset. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.* Price is currently trending down at ~$18700 after being rejected by $19417 resistance for the third consecutive session. Volume is currently Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for three of the past four sessions if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA ($21.3k), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 40 after being rejected by the descending trendline from January 2021 at 45 and breaking below 42.41 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at 15 as it attempts to crossover bullish. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -571 with no signs of trough formation as it approaches -869 minor support. ADX is currently trending up at 24.34 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will have to flip $19417 resistance to support if it is to test the descending trendline from November 2021 at $21k. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2017 at ~$15k as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two b2b closes above) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD Daily TA neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% ETH, 45% Cash. *Cryptos remained relatively flat but to the upside this weekend as US Equity Futures are currently up heading into the market open this week. Gold is down and DXY is up. Economic data is showing a slowdown in inflation and demand leading up to the August CPI print on 09/13 but the commitment by the Fed to getting FFR up to at least 4% by early 2023 presents an interesting dilemma going forward. This is because a stronger DXY and US Treasuries naturally puts a cap on potential near-term/medium-term alpha in Equities by attracting liquidity from investors whom are hedging against a global recession. Yes, USD is still king and it's being proven with DXY hitting highs last seen in 2000; Russian Ruble is also thriving but this is largely due to effects of sanctions. The Merge is set for launch on Ethereum's Mainnet on 09/14 . Key Upcoming Dates: 10th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 09/07; 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; The Merge (Ethereum) at 8am EST 09/14; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending sideways at ~$1575 for a fourth consecutive session as it attempts to retest the 50 MA at ~$1660 as resistance. Volume remains Low and fairly balanced between buyer and seller dominance over the last few sessions, it has also been shrinking for seven consecutive sessions which is indicative of an impending breakout or breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1621, this is bullish. RSI continues to trend sideways at ~47 for four consecutive sessions now, the next resistance is at 55.31 and support at 37. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 75 as it defies a bearish crossover right below 81 resistance, if it can break above 81 then it will likely be bullish until max top. MACD remains bearish but is currently on the verge of crossing over bullish at -28 support. ADX is currently trending down at 16 as Price continues to consolidate in attempt to move higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1660 as resistance before potentially retesting $1711 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $1500 as support before potentially retesting $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1534.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% ETH, 52% Cash. *JOBS REPORT WATCH. DXY and US Treasuries are dominating headlines again and pulling liquidity from markets as DXY hit $110 in today's session for the first time since September 2002. The 9th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 2.6% today compared to 1.6% on 08/26/22 ; this adds to the basket of recent bullish economic data leading up to tomorrow's Employment Situation. Cryptos are currently attempting to lead a corrective bounce in Risk-On markets after a Jackson Hole inspired sell off. Equities, Futures and Commodities are all down while DXY, US Treasuries, VIX and Cryptos are up. Something to keep an eye on regarding Cryptos next week is the due date for responses to the Biden Admin's Executive order on cryptocurrencies from market regulators and the US Treasury, Commerce and Justice Departments. Though mainly focused on the viability of a CBDC and its implementation, it will also help clarify which regulatory agencies are responsible for what in the cryptocurrency industry. Interestingly it will also discuss Proof of Work mining and its burden on ESG policies just days before Ethereum is set to transition to Proof of Stake. The Merge is still scheduled for launch on Ethereum's Mainnet 09/15/22 . Bitcoin Maximalist Michael Saylor is being sued by the Washington D.C. Attorney General for alleged tax evasion . Key Upcoming Dates: August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02 ; 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13.* Price is currently trending up at ~$1566 and deciding between an Ascending Triangle breakout or a Bear Flag breakdown, the next resistance is the 50 MA (~$1640) which it has tested in the previous two sessions. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1683, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 45 after successfully defending the descending trendline from 07/17/22 as support at 37 support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 47 resistance with no signs of peak formation. MACD remains bearish and continues forming a trough at -46 minor support, if it can break above -22 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 22 as Price is trending up, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1640 as resistance for a third consecutive session. However, if Price breaks down here, it will confirm a Bear Flag formation which would likely have Price retest $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1711.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% ETH, 60% Cash. *Big day for f**kery. Equities, Cryptos, US Treasuries, Precious Metals are all down while VIX, DXY, Commodities (aside from Precious Metals) are up. July PCE price index decreased by -0.1% from July , and was 6.3% higher than in July of 2021 (compared to 6.8% higher last month); both of these numbers reflect the effects of the White House tapping into SPR in July. The 8th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in today at +1.6% compared to +1.4% on 08/24/22. The UofM survey reported August consumer sentiment at 58.2 (compared to 51.5 in July) and a nearly 60% surge in year-ahead economic expectations from lows last seen in 2008-2010. Even though the economic data today was largely positive, it wasn't enough for Fed Chair Pow. He kept the hawkish rhetoric by emphasizing today at Jackson Hole that the Fed will be maintaining "restrictive monetary policy" until Core PCE drops meaningfully closer to their 2% target and that they won't hesitate to raise rates by another 75bps in September. To some bull's delight, he made mention that the Fed would have to eventually slow down rate hikes as the inflation situation improves (logically). The Merge is still scheduled for launch on Ethereum mainnet 09/15/22 . Key Upcoming Dates: August Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 08/30 ; 9th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/01; August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02.* Price was rejected by $1560 minor resistance and is currently on the verge of breaking below the uptrend line from 06/18/22 (~$1625) as it tests the 50 MA (~$1585) as support. Volume is High and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers in the past few sessions but is on track to favor sellers in today's session if it closes in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1914, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 41 as it approaches a retest of the descending trendline from 07/17/22 at ~39 (this would likely coincide with a retest of 37 support). Stochastic crossed over bearish today after being rejected by 18 resistance and is currently trending down at 15; the next support is max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -6 after a failed initial trough formation; the next support (minor) is at -46. ADX is currently trending sideways at 23 as Price is deciding on whether or not to break down out of the uptrend from 06/18/22, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here off of the 50 MA and reclaim the uptrend line from 06/18/22 as support at $~1640 , it will then have to break above $1711 minor resistance in order to retest $1941 resistance . However, if Price breaks down below the 50 MA, the next likely target is a retest of $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1711.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BullishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% BTC, 25% Cash . *July US Housing Starts are down -9.5% from June (compared to -2.5% consensus estimates); July US Building Permits are down -1.3% from June but are up 1.1% from June of 2021. The big miss on Housing Starts is reflective of recessionary fears and rising interest rates hindering people from wanting to commit to a mortgage right now. The 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate is 1.8% , down from 2.5% in the 4th estimate on 08/10. Major cryptos continue to lag behind Equities while altcoins are seeing a majority of the gains recently, which begs the question of wen BTC? Treasuries, Equities and Crypto are up and DXY, Gold, Commodities (aside from Nat Gas) are flat or down. Key dates this week: US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17 ; FOMC Minutes 2pm EST 08/17 .* Price is currently testing $24180 minor support after briefly testing the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle from 07/18/22 at $23.5k as support, the Ascending Triangle formation is still valid. Volume remains Moderate and is on track to favor sellers if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $22.8k, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 06/18 at 54; and though it appears far at the moment, it's still technically testing the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 + 57.34 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 62 with no signs of trough formation, the next support is at 55.55; it's also still technically testing 78 support but is on the verge of losing it if the D% line falls below 78 (it is currently at 78.5). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at 490, if it crosses below 470 it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending sideways at 22 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to break (and close) above $24180 resistance , the next likely target is a retest of the descending trendline from November 2021 at $27k-$28k as resistance . However, if Price breaks below the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle from 07/18 at $23.5k as support then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$22.2k as support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at $20k psychological support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $23.5k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 53% BTC, 47% Cash. * St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reaffirmed on CNBC today that he does not see the economy in a recession due to resilient job growth and low unemployment but that whether or not we're in one is in the eye of the beholder; he also reiterated that the Fed should continue frontloading rates with an EOY target of 3.75%-4%, considered a bit high compared to consensus. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said to Reuters today that she thinks a 50bps rate hike in September is reasonable but that 75bps could be necessary. She also made some off color remarks regarding inflation and alluded to it potentially having reached a peak by commenting on how she no longer feels the pain of inflation or has to make trade-offs because she now has enough (to withstand inflationary pressures). The San Francisco Fed CEO makes $422,900 per year, which after taxes is more like $137,892 per year, and after SF rent at an average of $5k/month (which she most likely splits with her spouse), she is making at least $78k a year; which makes it interesting for her to related to someone who makes less than $100k a year in San Francisco before taxes and cost of living are considered. Equities seemed to like Paypal beating earnings and revenue estimates but forget that they are essentially a bank and that most banks have done quite well this earnings season. Cryptos are trending up today as investors are slowly returning to Risk-On markets with hopes that inflation has peaked and that the Fed will pivot in Q1 or Q2 2023. Michael Saylor stepped down as CEO after Microstrategy announced Q2 earnings misses and showed their BTC holdings are down $917m; he will now serve as Executive Chairman to the Microstrategy Bitcoin Wallet. Key dates remaining this week: July BLS Employment Situation @ 830am EST (08/04).* Price is completing a Bull Flag formation and is currently trending up at ~$23.3k as it aims to retest $24181 minor resistance. Volume is currently Moderate and on track to break a five session streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $21.7k, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 as resistance at 57 resistance after bouncing at 54. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at 65 as it completes a trough, if it crosses above 68 it would be a bullish crossover. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at 459 as it is now technically testing 313 support for a second consecutive session. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 19 as Price sees selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue higher here then it will likely retest $24180 minor resistance before potentially retesting the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~$28k as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the 50 MA as support at ~$21.5k . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $22.7k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% ETH, 53% Cash . * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES . Cryptos are a mixed bag over the weekend with some rallying and others staying relatively flat, Ethereum did the latter. The bullish narrative is still dominated by speculation of peak inflation, abnormally low unemployment, and expectations of a dovish pivot by early 2023. Equity futures are lower to start the week with CPI and PPI due to report 08/10 and 08/11; if numbers come in lower or show a lesser increase than the month prior, markets will likely interpret that as bullish leading up to the next PCE numbers on 08/26 (before the FOMC meeting on 09/20-09/21). It's another big week for earnings with Palantir (08/08), Coinbase (08/09), and Disney (08/10) set to report. Palantir and Coinbase will give investors an idea of how growth stocks are faring in this bear market rally that is bringing Risk back into markets, while Disney will give a broader update on the health of the consumer. The Merge is still scheduled for launch on Mainnet 09/12/22 . Key dates this week: PLTR earnings 08/08; COIN earnings 08/09; 4th US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am (EST) 08/10; CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10; Disney earnings 08/10; and PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11.* Price is currently testing $1711 minor resistance for a fourth consecutive session. Volume remains Moderate and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers, indicative of potential consolidation before moving higher. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1427 support, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 61 after breaking back down below the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at 62, the next support is the descending trendline from February 2020 (as support) at 55 support. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 56, the next support is at 47. MACD remains (bearly*) bearish for a third consecutive session as it trends sideways at 86, the next support is at 28 while the next resistance is the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~131. ADX is currently trending down at 27 as Price is facing a lot of resistance in its attempt to push higher, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to breakout and close above $1711 minor resistance then the next likely target is $1941 resistance . However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely retest $1550 before potentially retesting $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1711 minor resistance .
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 53% BTC, 47% Cash. * SUNDAY/MONDAY SCARIES WATCH . Cryptos are attempting to rally this weekend heading into a big week for inflation data with CPI and PPI reports due on 08/10 and 08/11, respectively. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (one of three governors who vote on FFR, Brainard and Waller being the other two) told the Kansas Bankers Association today that a third 75bps rate hike on September 21st is likely if inflation doesn't come down in the next two months. She also mentioned that she expects for the labor market to remain strong and for the economic outlook to improve in the second half of 2022. Key dates next week: 4th US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am (EST) 08/10; CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10; PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11.* Price is currently trending up at $23.2k after completing a Bull Flag formation and looks to retest $24181 minor resistance. Volume is currently Low and on track to favor sellers if it closes today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $22.2k, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 54 after being rejected by the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 as resistance at 57 resistance, the next support is at the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at 51. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish just below 55.55 support, the next resistance is at 78. MACD remains bullish and is currently resisting a bearish crossover for a third consecutive session as it trends sideways at 352, if it breaks below 350 it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 18 as Price is pushing higher, this is neutral at the moment but would be bullish if it started to trend up in conjunction with Price. If Price is able to continue going up in today or tomorrow's session then it will likely retest $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$21.5k as support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/18/22 at ~$20k. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $22.4k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
4
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 57% ETH, 43% Cash . * The US Employment Situation was released this morning and, by some supernatural forces at play, the job Gods produced the lowest unemployment since February 2020 (pre-Covid) and Non-Farm Payrolls went up from 398k in June to 528k in July. Pair this with the improving GDP forecasts, wage growth and relatively strong retail sales and it's easy to see why markets are getting bullish. Next week's CPI and PPI reports will provide a clearer outlook as to how 2022 may end, but aside from that markets have noticeably tilted bullish in the short-to medium term. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 will also help provide a EOY forecast for the US economy and help determine whether the Fed will raise 50bps, 75bps or 100bps on 09/21. The Merge is still scheduled for launch on Mainnet 09/12/22 . Key dates next week: 4th US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am (EST) 08/10; CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10; PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11.* Price is currently retesting $1711 minor resistance after completing a Bull Flag formation and bouncing at ~$1600. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to end a two session streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green; buyer dominance in today's session would be bullish. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1427 support, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 63 as it attempts to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 06/18/22 (~61), if it can do this then the next resistance would be the 50/50 uptrend line from November 2018 at ~72. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 44; it is still technically testing 47 support. MACD remains bearish for a second session and is currently forming a trough at 89, if it breaks above 93 it would reverse to a bullish crossover; the next resistance is the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 just below 28 resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 28 as Price attempts to finish the correction and resume the rally. If Price is able to breakout above $1711 minor resistance and flip it to support, then it will likely test $1941 resistance for the first time since breaking below it on 06/10/22. However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1566.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH Daily TA Neutral BullishETHUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% ETH, 48% Cash. * Today in an interview with the Washington Post , Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that inflation hasn't peaked yet and that we still have a ways to go on raising interest rates but that we are "not in a recession right now"; she also mentioned that she expects unemployment to go up and that investments, consumer expenditures and housing numbers are all starting to decline. US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan and is scheduled to meet with human rights activists and politicians tomorrow to the dismay of the PRC and PLA, it has yet to be seen what countermeasures will be taken by China in response but they are likely to be aimed at Taiwan directly. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the trip is provocative and that Russia backs China's view that Taiwan is not independent. As for Ethereum, assuming no setbacks, the Merge is estimated to launch on 09/12/22 . The SEC continues its promise to bring increased regulation to crypto by charging 11 people for running a $300m Ponzi disguised as a decentralized smart contract platform. Earnings this week continue to point to a prolonged economic slowdown but this is hardly a factor as markets continue to look for more signs of a Fed pivot. Key dates remaining this week: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks at 645 EST today; Nancy Pelosi speaks to Taiwanese human rights activists and politicians tomorrow (08/03); Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at 12pm EST tomorrow (08/03); July BLS Employment Situation at 830am EST (08/04).* Price is currently trending down after getting rejected on its initial test of $1711 minor resistance and is currently looking for support at ~$1650 after briefly touching $1550. Volume is currently Moderate and on track to break a four session streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green; this would help confirm that there is enough support for a retest of $1711 minor resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1395, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 60 as it tests the uptrend line from 06/18/22; if it breaks below this, the next support is the descending trendline from February 2020 at 55 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 47 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at 100 as it creeps toward a bearish crossover which would happen if it fell below 93; the next resistance is the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 just below 28 resistance, the next support is at -46. ADX is currently trending down at 29 as Price is seeing selling pressure, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $1711 minor resistance and potentially go higher to $1941 resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, the next likely target is a retest of $1427 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $1550.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy