bitcoin battle at 50k, price discovery happeningWill bitcoin pop through 50k and resume the long term uptrend through 60k?
or will it bump its head and dip to test support.
We will soon find out.
other cryptos are similar price action set ups (except cardano adausd which broke out). But bitcoin will be the most widely traded and widely important for the major trend.
Crytpo
MATIC/USDT Enter Long 📈Was on my watchlist for more than a week and I wanted to see the EMA200 hold.
EMA50/34 pushing well and we're on a good demand zone.
Buy at the tops & sell the bottoms! Richard Ney spoke about think of the market like a warehouse, the owners of the warehouse CM (composite man) needs to fill the building with inventory, they need to sell some as they acquire more - issuing news releases of their grand launch. But their whole objective is to buy at the wholesale rate & sell at retail prices.
Think of this in a simple chronology form;
Strong hands buy cheap and sell at a higher price – to the retail clients, willing to pay more. This is usually due to the retail buying the tops and selling the bottoms.
If you take a look at the CryptoQuant chart - replicated from their site, into @TradingView
You will notice the drop off towards the end of Feb. this was in essence the buyers climax. I’ve had several people ask – why would the big boys bail at 40k? Again, you need to think of the wholesale/retail scenario. CM buys low and sells high, retail buy high and sell low.
If you apply some Elliott logic here, you will see we were at a weekly 3 & that was finished with a daily 5 – giving the need of a correction (in Warehouse terms) selling inventory, in trading lingo – it’s distribution.
Here I posted the map in March;
As you can see it played out as expected.
Let’s go back to the Wholesale logic by Mr Ney; This is by far the easiest way to think about it. The primary goal of composite man (the market maker) or in the warehouse owner. Is to make money. To do this, they acquire stock or BTC and fill their warehouse(fund).
In the accumulation phase, CM (Composite man) needs enough inventory to make it worthwhile, making demand – you will see positive news, attracting the retail to the store. The whole process is about supply and demand. Does he have enough supply for the demand?
The warehouse will not be filled with only one truck – it will take several months and multiple deliveries to accumulate enough stock/BTC. Then the emphasis is put on mass marketing! Think a Musk tweet, positive news and so on! Attracting retail buyers – who now have confidence in the product on sale as it’s shot up recently. Supply seemingly limited and demand high!
As buyers buy – CM is selling as seen by the Blockfi wallet image above. Price driven up as supply becomes exhausted and demand is peaked!
Now what? – well Price is too much for CM to want to buy anything back at an ATH. He wants it back at a new fair value – wholesale price.
So, the best thing to do is – cause a little fear and doubt, a political statement or a tweet or two in today’s world. The media is basically yesterday’s news, tomorrow. But so many people buy into it and that allows for the puppeteering.
And this is known as the distribution phase. We are now at a 1,3 or 5 Elliott wave. Let’s go with only at 1 in Elliott terms. CM can’t frighten retail too much and needs to keep the dream alive. Or there would be no dumb money buying into the next rally. So, the distribution & re-accumulation phase often blends in the 2nd wave of an Elliott move. If you look inside, you will see the ABC type moves giving hope to retail and gathering a strong position to go again.
All CM is doing is filling the shelves in the warehouse. He continues to buy new inventory and sell the old (hedging) And once there’s enough supply to make a new campaign – off he goes, selling to the world.
If news is bad at the highs, retail suckers would not buy anymore & CM would be left carrying the weight. Instead, the news is good, knowing a drop is imminent. The same applies at the bottom, if news is good – then retail will be buying in preparation for a move up. CM knows how to balance these moves without showing his hand. It’s knowing that retail fools – will always try to catch the bottom and stay in until the top. And you wonder why it is that retail lose 75% of the time or more!
CM simply takes advantage of the retail’s fear and greed. I recently wrote another TradingView article on emotional analysis.
This explains a little as to why Elliott, Wyckoff and Dow theory are still used today.
The logic from re-accumulation or Elliott 2 – goes on into 3, down to 4 and then up to 5. Before the cycle is completed and a new cycle starts. We cover this in more depth with the education. But I hope you get the general idea here.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Hex set to 2-3x in the coming month Price discovery is at an ATH for hex while the rest of crypto is struggling, new stakers everyday, old stakers buying more and more, what else could you ask for? Well Richard Heart’s new fork of Etherium dubbed PULSECHAIN is set to help out not only hex but all the other erc-20’s. Not only is this huge for crypto but there is an awareness about hex now coming abroad that wasn’t there in the launch phase. Hex stakers and holders will be rewarded with a full stack of the ehex onto the new network and will be called phex. Erc 20 holders of most coins will be rewarded with their full stack of coins starting out at 0 value on pulsechain. This and many more “pumpamentals” are in the mix to take hex higher and farther than even my analysis predicts.
The case for a Bullish ETH The recent drop in the market was a little overdue but that did not make it sting any less. Now the dust has relatively settled from that huge leg down, the question that will inevitably be asked by everyone is "what next?". "Do I have to liquidate my entire stash of digital beans and run for the comfy hills of Fiat as fast as my stubble little legs can carry me to escape the impending destruction of all the shitcoins I love and cherish?"
Well, not yet.
There are a number of things we need to look at to determine if market structure has really shifted to a bearish bias and one of the 'good' things about the parabolic run we had with ETH is that the huge sell off hasn't even dented the daily 200 ma. I'm a relatively simple man, the pa is above the 200 ema on the 1d, I'm long term bullish.
If you have followed my charting before, you'll know my two favourite TA tools are FIBs and Ich clouds. Ich can be fantastic for determining and clarifying overall market sentiment and key support and resistance levels and on this ETH chart we have one tasty cloud. The huge sell off yesterday bounced perfectly off the bottom line of the cloud (the Tenkan Sen) and today we have tested the top blue line of the cloud (the Kijun Sen). The cloud essentially acts as a dynamic support/resistance structure whilst giving us a peak into the future market sentiment as it rolls before the price. Essentially, if the cloud 'twists' and turns red from the blue Kijun Sen crossing below the red Tenkan Sen its a pretty good indication of a bearish market.
This has not happened, the future cloud is still green and lovely so, for now, the market sentiment is bullish.
Another TA I like to use is the Stoch RSI, here we can see severely underbought areas and backtest them against PA. ETH has had two similar massively underbought areas on 28/2 and 25/3 which both signified bottoms and predated new rallies. However, in the short term I would urge caution, this pa is messy and will chop heavily for hours in not days, wait for clear signs of a recovery before going full chimp mode.
Does the current PA signify a huge rally incoming for ETH? History does not always repeat itself, but it can rhyme.
LTC MID-WEEK UPDATE. HUGE ALTCOIN OPPORTUNITY Updated daily chart for Litecoin. Bullish and bearish are covered to maximize profits with very little losses. Crypto undergoing a correction as we speak so this is a excellent opportunity to catch those pips.
What my goal is for you to create your own charts and your own signals without relying on signal groups, callouts, or even myself. You will develop better technical analysis skills, know how to properly place high quality support and resistance , proper advanced risk to reward ratio, etc. At the end you'll create your own signals based on your own analysis which will guarantee make you a more and better discipline profitable trader.
I recommend as for starters to start off with a demo so that you get familiar with my strategy. I hope you are enjoying my content as I update them mid-week and in the beginning of every week.
Simple Price Action strategy that covers both buys and sells so you can never miss an opportunity. Remember small losses for those big gains.
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When resistance breaks (red) enter for a buy. Above resistance entry (forgot to color code it)
When support breaks (green) enter for a sell. Below support entry (forgot to color code it)
BTC LTF bull divif a triple bull div forms on the hourly, i'd expect a nice reaction. this will likely cause many traders to think this is the bottom but u have to see the higher time frame i shared to know we could likely see 38k-42k. either way, u can scalp it or continue to sit out waiting for a THE bottom
SO, You just lost lots and lots of money on bitcoin ? yeah ? DONT PANIC, you can still if you are patient, hold what you got for another few days and wait for the bounce back, it will be fast and a brief spike in volume allowing some traders to escape. You can take this route, or As some people may be thinking well maybe I dont want to sell any of my bitcoin. Thats understandable and this is what you do, you DOLLAR COST AVERAGE you need to lower the average cost you paid for bitcoin and buy more, double down at the bottom of this bear market and capture as much profits as you can to ensure you are able to escape without losing any money.
ALGO - Trap The Bears & Reverse!ALGO Bears have come out to play!
I have laid out a roadmap with 2 possibilities
First ALGO can hit a double bottom around $0.5435
Secondly they can hit $0.5435 pull off chop sideways and rise
Once this correction is over we should also have new ATHs
I will do a follow up once we turn bullish
BTC S&R,Indicators,MA That I Work With.Thought that someone will find useful or want to compares his/hers supports and resistances and instruments with someone else's.
Also they are pretty accurate you can check them by yourself.
Thank you for reading my post, have a great day, wish you all the best !
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Feel free to ask anything on the comments :)
Bitcoin Top Approaching?I don't usually rely on RSI data alone but found this interesting. Bitcoin tops over the last 8 years have been consistently formed around monthly RSI's near the 96 mark and this happened on 3 different occasions.
- April 2013
- November 2013
- December 2017
In August 2017 we had a mini-correction around 94 RSI before a full-blown reversal in December. With a current monthly RSI over 89 as we speak, it's interesting to see how we react to the same levels if & when we get there.
Worth keeping in mind for all you crypto fanatics.
TRADE 8 - KAVA / BTCHi guys,
This time i think KAVA it's a good trade. DEFI with a lot to grow and mainnet in march with a bullish Market structure on the daily.
Price is inside the cloud with bullish TK cross, retesting the 0.786 fib level from the move up with matches with weekly support.
RSI is around 50 level.
Target daily ob and monthly resistance.
Entry is a bit lower since i'm expecting a last push down to the tenkan with is pretty near the actual daily low on the MS.
I always post the charts with a entry price and target, but have in mind this is not financial advice. Anyway, remember that taking a trade is less improtant than manage it propertly. Scalate in and out, try to anticipate the market and dont let unrealized profits become a loss.
BTC up the wedge until late MarchBTC is going to travel up the wedge until late March/ early April and then head back down to a previous support.
Very short term bullish, mid short term bear, overall long term bullish
Directional analysis Presented is a 1 hr chart analysis for enthused.
Currently we are in a sell off from our lates new high. Mapped out are two key price support that act as pivots.
With a MACD/SIGNAL 0 line cross I sentiment a bottom support retest for perfect buy opportunity.
Please comment with thoughts and ideas. Thank you.