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CSCO

THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, CSCO, TGT, BBY, WMT, GPS, AMAT EARNINGSWe have bevvy of retail earnings announcements next week as the full season tapers off: HD announces earnings on Tuesday before market open with a background implied volatility of 23% (top quarter of 52-week range). CSCO -- Wednesday before market open with a background of 27 (near 52-week high). TGT -- Wednesday before market open, at 36 (top quarter of 52-week range). BBY -- Thursday, before market open, at 53 (near 52-week high). WMT -- Thursday, before market open, at 25 (near 52-week high). GPS -- Thursday, after market close, at 44 (above middle, but below top quarter of 52-week range). AMAT -- Thursday, after market close, at 41 (near 52-week high). I generally prefer playing earnings where the background volatility exceeds 50%, and it's in the top-quarter of its 52-week range, implying that the best candidate for an earnings contraction play would be BBY with AMAT close behind/worth watching for an increase in implied volatility running into the announcement. Broad-market exchange-traded fund-wise, there isn't much to play: the Brazilian exchange-traded fund continues to print implied volatility percentages at or above 30% (currently, 35-ish), followed by the petro exchange-traded fund, XOP (34). For non-earnings individuals, TEVA (72/upper end of its 52-week range) continues to garner my attention, along with CTL (56), which -- post-earnings -- maintains high volatility. The majors -- well, there isn't much to look at. IWM leads with a background implied of 16, which is basically tied with the QQQ's at 16. SPY comes in at a paltry 13 ... . On the volatility product front, the first /VX future trading at or above 16 is out in May (184 DTE), meaning that a <90 DTE VIX Term Structure trade isn't in the offing for me. However, the VXST/VIX ratio finished Friday's session somewhat elevated (.92), so it's worth keeping an eye out for any >1.00 pops in which to consider Contango Drift trades, particularly as we wind into a rollover with VIX spot trading at 11.29 relative to the Nov contract's 11.60 (2 DTE).
NYSE:HD
by NaughtyPines
CSCO covered strangleSold the OCT 20 30/32, ~ 30 deltas, 58 days, @ 40% IV Rank now, (I missed my chance selling when the IV was higher before earnings ) I'm sitting on 3 lots of stock here with 31.64 cost basis. I could have just sold the 32 call against my stock position, but it seems to make more sense to sell the strangle as it brings in more premium and both the call & put won't be assigned. I'm open to acquiring more CSCO stock at 30. A number of fundamental bullish factors should provide support the stock price: - Free cash flow yield of 4.6% - Dividend yield of 3.75%, payout ratio 56% - Both CFRA and Trefis give a higher 'fair value' around $33, Credit Suisse "outperform" rating - Valued based on 2.43 operating earnings and 5% earnings growth rate over next 3 years.
NASDAQ:CSCO
by dime
At Least A 1% Drop For CiscoOn April 5, 2017, CISCO Systems Inc. ( NASDAQ:CSCO ) crossed below its 50 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 236 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 2.851% and a maximum loss of 30.080% over the next 5 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 34.1632. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending down and will quickly make it to oversold territory within the next 5 trading days. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 23.4246. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current direction declares the stock is moving down. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1365. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down. The stochastic oscillator K value is 17.5800 and D value is 17.2248. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, but is due to move up again in the near future. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1.1% over the next 5 trading days. The stock will revisit a previous resistance level around 32.60 which could turn into new support. A possible reversal at this point could also occur due to the Stochastic level in the oversold level. However, a quick drop could cause the stock to drop to the Macro support level around 31-31.50 before it reverses up again.
NASDAQ:CSCOShort
by StockSignaler