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CSX

CSX Short Based on FundamentalsNo technicals bullshit here, purely fundamental driven. Micro PSR is the key theme in railroads right now. Despite a lower operating ratio CSX implementing PSR isn't proving to be as effective as people think and the optimism associated has created a bubble. Macro Railroad data weaker YoY - Bearish - www.aar.org Earnings Growth Positive - Bullish - But how can this be maintained with lower shipments and the current macro environment? Cass Freight Index YoY - Bearish - public.tableau.com Cass Freight MoM - Bearish public.tableau.com Weather - Hurricane Dorian - CSX is exposed to disruption and potential disaster which would impact the stock, it carries 8% of hazardous chemicals through it's North & South Carolina states. This stock is going lower as it's exposed as a buyback stock pump with no real growth in the past 2 years.
NASDAQ:CSXShort
by UnknownUnicorn764329
My Short Trade Idea for 07-17-2019 $CSXPlease accep my appologies, i have been travellinmg and out of the financial markets, but today i am starting to work again and i will post 1 idea every day that the market is open. My favorite stock for today is NASDAQ:CSX , as you can see its gapping down on earnings, we are below of mosts Moving Averages, and i think that if we break 72.30, the 20 EMA on the 5 min chart we have room all the way down to a 2-3 points movement, i will look on for my entry on the break and confirmation of VWAP, the 9EMA and the 20EMA (200SMA on the Daily). Remember to manage your risk and your trade if you enter in it. Note: This idea is for educational purposes, trade at your own risk.
NASDAQ:CSXShort
by leoamartinez
THE WEEK AHEAD: GE, CSX, PYPL EARNINGS; MBI, PEARNINGS GE announces earnings on 10/20 (Friday) before market open. With a background implied volatility in high 20's (28% as of Friday close), it isn't particularly high from a premium selling standpoint, but I could see this as a potential acquisition opportunity via a November 17th 22 short put (paying .32 at the mid), in spite of the fact that the company's being a decent dividend bearing play is waning. Alternatively, the November 17th 22 short straddle pays 1.37 at the mid. Going pure volatility contraction play closer in time doesn't pay all that much, with the October 27th 22 short straddle brining in short of 1.00 at the mid. CSX announces on Tuesday before market open. Background implied volatility's in the mid-30's which places it in the upper fourth percentile of where it's been over the past year. The October 27th 51/55 short strangle's paying 1.24 at the mid, with the comparable defined risk iron condor at 48/51/55/58 paying .92. PYPL, with a background implied around 30 goes on 10/19 (Thursday) after market close, with the Oct 27th 65.5/71.5 short strangle paying 1.55, and the delta neutral 62.5/65.5/71.5/74 iron condor in the same expiry paying .95. NON-EARNINGS MBI, with a background implied of 66 (at the very high end of its range), probably only makes sense as a short put/acquire/cover cycle trade, with the November 17th 6 short put paying .35 at the mid and the 7 paying .76. The former would yield a cost basis of 5.65 on assignment; the latter, 6.24. P has a background implied of 67 (mid-range over the past year), with the December 1st 7 short put paying .27 (cost basis of 6.73 if assigned) and the at-the-money 8 paying .66 (7.34 cost basis on assignment). VIX/VIX DERIVATIVE TRADES Currently, no term structure or contango drift trades are in the offing. The first VIX future trading at >16 is way out in May, and the VIX/VXST ratio finished Friday's session at around .84.
NYSE:GE
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX, IBM, CSX, EBAY, MSFT EARNINGSAlthough many of next week's earnings plays aren't up to my usual snuff due to lower implied volatility invading the entire market with VIX at sub-10 levels, some of these announcements might offer decent premium even though the metrics for a volatility contraction play aren't ideal (>70 implied volatility rank, >50 background implied volatility). Here, I'm looking for at least 70% probability of profit setups and -- for defined risk -- greater than one-third the width of the widest wing in credit. Look to put these plays on in the waning hours of the session immediately before the announcement and take profit for short strangles and iron condors at 50% of the credit received; 25% for short straddles/flies. NFLX: Announces Monday after market close July 28th 148/177.5 short strangle Probability of Profit: 74% Max Profit: $391 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 144.09/181.41 (> 1 SD, both sides) July 28th 141/146/175/180 iron condor Probability of Profit: 68% Max Profit: $169 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $331 Break Evens: 144.31/176.69 (> 1 SD put side, slightly less than 1 SD call) IBM: Announces Tuesday After Market Close July 28th 149/160 short strangle Probability of Profit: 69% Max Profit: $251 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 146.49/162.51 (at 1 SD, both sides) July 28th 144/147/162.5/165 iron condor Probability of Profit: 71% Max Profit: $68 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $232 Break Evens: 146.32/163.18 (at 1 SD, put side; > 1 SD call) Notes: The iron condor is probably not worth it, given the fact that you're being paid less than 1/3rd the width of the strikes in credit for a 70% probability of profit setup. CSX: Announces on Tuesday After Market Close July 28th 53/57.5 short strangle Probability of Profit: -- Max Profit: $96 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 52.04/58.46 Notes: For some reason, my platform isn't generating probability of profit metrics for this setup. The short strangle is likely to be around 70% with 1 SD break evens; given the fact that the short strangle is only paying $96, there is no way an iron condor with a >70% probability of profit would pay that, so it's not set out here. The defined risk alternative is to go iron fly: July 28th 51/55/55/59, Probability of Profit: 50%, Max Profit: $212 at the mid; Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $188; Break Evens: 52.88/57.12 (expected move, both sides). In spite of the 50% probability of profit, not too shabby with reward/risk, since you're risking about one to make one. EBAY: Announces Thursday After Market Close July 28th 35/39 short strangle Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $93 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 34.07/39.93 (at 1 SD, both sides) Notes: As with the CSX play, there's no way a 70% probability of profit defined risk iron condor will pay 1/3rd the width of the widest wing if the short strangle's only paying .93. Again, the alternative is go iron fly: July 28th 33/37/37/41, Probability of Profit: 50%; $210 at the mid; Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $190; Break Evens: 34.90/39.10 (expected move, both sides). MSFT: Announces Thursday After Market Close July 28th 70/75.5 short strangle Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $118 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined Break Evens: 68.82/76.68 (1 SD, both sides) July 28th 67/70/75.5/78.5 iron condor Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: $86 at the mid Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $214 Break Evens: 69.14/76.36 Notes: The iron condor's payout is on the edge of being worthwhile; implied volatility would need to ramp up a little bit running into earnings.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
CSX Bullish SwingI was watching a youtube video from my buddy Jerremy @reallifetrading and he mentioned CSX (video of analysis from April 6th) so I decided to check it out to see how the stock has moved compared to his opinion. Great pattern forming at new all time highs. I'm being loose with the stop in case it decides to retest the old all time high area AFTER it triggers. If CSX breaks the pattern in a bearish manner, I'm going to look for an entry around 49.73 with a stop around 47.81
NASDAQ:CSXLong
by Federman19
Mid term correction on CSXA long term cycle ended. Its correction is in progress. Developing a double combo. First a flat ABC followed by a fast bullish X wave to connect both corrections. All this actually doesn't really matter. What it does matter, is the second combo. It is a zigzag where we can see a 5 waves bear cycle that should be the A wave. We can expect a B wave with 3 wave that seems to be a bullish zigzag. Right now it looks like 5-c within B about to start. Target of this last wave (v)-c-B would be around 31.43 (30.5 would be enough too) but this trade will be shorting the C. Thus, this trade will be active on confirmation point breaking the extreme price (iv)-c-B (red line)
NASDAQ:CSXShort
by soyelsimo
DOW Transports To Retest Recent Lows(Note: DOWT is no longer in a bear market after rallying the last two weeks) 2015 was suppose to be just another year of the epic bull market created by reckless central banking policies. Some Wall Street estimates for the S&P 500 were as high as 2,300. Me? I projected a contraction to 1,810 in mid-January. Whether or not the SPX will reach my target within the next 10 weeks, or so, is uncertain; but what has been quite clear is the scaffolding holding with risk assets around the global has been crumbling for sometime. In " Is A Storm Brewing? How History is Repeating Itself ," I was clear and concise in what 2015 had in store (posted Jan. 13, 2015): I support the idea that we are on the precipitous of something disastrous. Those who constantly look at underlying factors and notice the shifts in the FX, commodity and economic data are witnessing that the latest boom cycle is on its last leg. In essence, the post was a summery of the marco trends few wrote about because everybody indulged in the feel-good of rising stock prices. The post ended quite ominously: "2015 is going to be mercurial…" On March 26, I indicated that the DOW transports looked technically weak. Price action had been consolidating early in the year, much like the SPX. The index made several lower highs, higher lows and finally broke support at 8600. Nobody was even looking at the transports as a potential catalyst to drag the broader markets lower, even though that is historically the case. For instance, Cowen Group's Head of Sales, David Seaburg, said, as late as June 25 (after the the transports already began weakening underneath consolidation), "Everyone is up in arms about the transports, but the underperformance has very little to do with a weak economy and has more to do with the structural issues within the sector." Seaburg also said that "I DEFINITELY don't see any downside (broader markets) necessarily." Almost a month-to-the-day, not only did the DOW and SPX hit their first 10 percent correction in four years, the DOW transports fell into bear market territory. Awkward. Those that live by subjectivity, die by subjectivity. The broader markets did receive a massive bounce following the largest NYSE short-interest since the Lehman Brothers collapse, but the transports has been rejected twice from 8,250, or the 23.6% Fib. retracement from the 2012-lows. It's important to note that central bank credibility is fading fast, and traders will become more wary as the year winds down. Structurally, the index looks weak as earnings have been lackluster to not good at all. EMAs are showing bullishness on the daily, as they are sloping upward. However, a close above 8,250 will be needed to garner any significant technical buying in my opinion. Price action is within a large symmetrical triangle with price support of 7,970 cutting through the middle. This key, near-term support level could determine whether the index will test triangle support, which is supported by price support of 7,790. A confirmed close below the triangle support will cause transports to retest the 2012 ascending trend line. I expect fundamentals to continue to deteriorate into 4Q, and the transports to challege 2011's trend (between 7,200 and 7,300). Conversely, a close above triangle resistance could cause a rally to 8,500. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
DJ:DJT
by CommoditiesTrader
6