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CURRCIR

SPX | Of Course I'm Lying (?)I am not lying. I am completely disproving my latest idea, on how to short SPX. That idea went on Editors' Picks. And I am now killing it. I am not kidding, April Fools is for fools. I don't consider me or you a fool. So I am being serious. Chart analysis is not always straightforward. Pinpointing tops and bottoms is the ultimate bet for a trader. As most of you know, this is very hard sometimes. In 99% of a chart's movement, the trend is continuing. A significant trend change is very rare. Significant evidence for a trend reversal are VERY RARE, and not apparent in all timeframes. This is a chart that shows clear evidence of reversals. On the weekly timeframe, SPX analysis has showed significant evidence of peaks and bottoms. Believe it or not, SPX and NDX are showing evidence of going long. But what about long-term? Now THAT is a hard conversation. KST (and many other indicators) can show us incredibly early signs of price stagnation. Signs of stagnation in long-term charts however, can take DECADES to play out. SPX/M2SL Technicals were peaking in 1957, but the peak in SPX prices came 6 years later. For the standard SPX chart, things took even longer to play out. It is as if we are in 1957. And there is more evidence towards such a realization. What I did here was basically compare the .com bubble with the Roaring '20s. The .com bubble was just a very-fast version of the Roaring '20s. If we slow down NDX a little, we end up with the following: The effect of bubbles is apparent in different periods, and in different scales. The same laws that shaped the 1950-1980 price movement, may be dictating the movement of today's stock market. The Roaring '20s still has an effect on our moves. We may be living inside the reality-distortion field of the .com bubble. KST Peaking is an EXTREMELY early sign of stagnation. Price continues upwards, albeit at a slower rate. Now as we speak, KST reaches this exact point of peaking. This has proved an extremely early sign of stagnation. Will this time be different, and instead KST is showing an immediate sign, an abrupt crash? Perhaps things are too simple after all. Long Live the US! P.S. Remember, the stock market is for the patient ones, those who plan for decades ahead. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPXLong
by akikostas
13
Money Supply Bull Flag ???Maybe this is a massive money supply flag. We have support on the ribbon. Stochastic RSI confirms it. I don't know if this even makes sense, since CURRCIR is a subset of M2SL. On the other hand, who would have thought that in 1990s currency in circulation would increase by 50% in less than a decade. Or is there a ceiling prohibiting more increase? Also look at the ratio between Europe's money supply and US. And my favorite, the most accurate retracement ever. Total "purchasing power" of Europe vs US. Just recently we have reached a perfect golden ratio. 1 in 10.000 accuracy. Maybe this is a harmonic pattern. Feel free to guide me as to what this might be. And how price might continue in the following months/years. A closeup view. Maybe Europe will print so much money that it diminishes its currency. This chart suggests that EURUSD is in reality much weaker than it seems. A lot of Euro is printed compared to Dollars. Maybe they get more hawkish than the US and increase rates to >5%. I am not sure... Prepare for unforeseen consequences I guess? - G-Man, Half-Life 2
FRED:CURRCIR
by akikostas
MV = PQIn this rough draft of an idea, I naively try to figure out the effect of the immense money printing, and the "true" value of inflation. After BIS came out talking about the hidden debt, I began thinking about the "hidden" money. With such low money velocity, we cannot possibly feel the real effect of all that flood of money. I am amazed from this chart. Mainly because I just realized that there is a ticker that measures money velocity besides the FRED:M2V. It has the impractical name of A14187USA163NNBR. And it provides us with very long historical data to analyze. For us to have a remote hope of analyzing such extensive numbers, we simplify certain things. The title is the famous Milton Friedman equation (Quantity Theory of Money). Since I haven't studied finance, I just found out this equation. It was not famous for me. Yet, here I am, an unprofessional talking about finance. The letters in the title's equation mean the following: M stands for money. V stands for the velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money). P stands for the general price level. Q stands for the quantity of goods and services produced. Info taken from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Lous www.stlouisfed.org On the chart, there are two charts of the "fixed" SPX*Velocity. Because there are two separate tickers for velocity. FRED has data on the US GDP only after 1947. So one of the differences between these charts could relate to it. GDP in a period when QE didn't exist, was a meaningless statistic. Increase in productivity can't take you parabolically high like we see now. The reason we use SPX*Velocity is the following: If you do some calculations on the MV=PQ equation and multiply by SPX we have: SPX*Velocity (Chart) = SPX/M * GDP In reality, this chart shows us the effect of the SPX bubble on GDP. Before 1947 there was horizontal movement. If you think about it, until 1947 the fact that SPX*Velocity didn't grow, means that SPX is a good representation of GDP. On the left handside of the equation is the chart, on the right is total product produced. So now, the parabolic GDP is 100% due to the parabolic movement of SPX thanks to infinity-free-money-printing. The money velocity tells us more. Because money was not fiat, people used to hoard it and not spend it. So we see a substantial drop from 4.8 to 2 in velocity, before the Great Depression. The same is now, but faster... for the last 20 years, money velocity has taken a skyfall. The slow drop in money velocity occured because money was precious and people kept it. Now it is not moving because there is a MASSIVE amount of it in circulation, but most importantly, because it is hidden, like the hidden debt BIS is looking for. I know this idea is confusing. There is so much stuff that is hard to explain and visualize. Let's think of a scenario. If/when the Dollar Milkshake commences, and someone goes bankrupt, the debt is deleted. Since the debt is deleted, let's say that the money is deleted as well. We realize that if the money supply goes incredibly low, it would be as if we "go back in time". The Dollar Milkshake, that will push it's value to incredible highs, is nothing more than turning back the clock in time. All these years everything lost their value, as well as dollar. The only debt that will remain and not go bankrupt, is gold. It is not debt, but it serves as one because it is technically currency. This is an inverse-pyramid SPY_Master uploaded. The fake money we have created costs a ridiculous amount compared to gold reserves. GDP has increased 100 times in the last 80 years. And SPX more than 3 times to GDP. This gives us an idea of just how much over-leveraged and overblown the stock market is. Human values haven't increased 100 times. Hunger poverty and suffering hasn't gone down 100 times. And we are certainly not much wiser than ancient civilizations like the Greeks (perhaps much less wise). This is a truly fixed SPX chart. And by fixed, I mean qualitatively. It looks like we are in a state like before the Great Depression. Very very bubbled. Who knows if more money printing will take place and take us off the chart. To conclude, we can calculate inflation if we calculate the missing money velocity. SInce money doesn't circulate, there is low inflation. It is the product of money supply and velocity that matters. If velocity returns to normal levels (it certainly tries to), we look for an increase of 60% in velocity, which would push inflation much higher than now. Imagine the panic we will feel if inflation goes to 15% next year, let alone 60%. I began writing this idea to calculate the inflation, but my mind went places... It's been fun writing. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by akikostas
20