EURNZD Bearish Reversal Confirmed: Break and Retest Below Key Su🧠 Market Context & Structure:
Trend Analysis: The pair is currently in a bearish structure. This is evident from lower highs and lower lows forming after a failed bullish breakout attempt.
Key Zone: A supply zone (highlighted in red) around 1.90198 – 1.90750 has acted as a strong resistance. Price was rejected here after retesting.
Break of Structure (BoS): A clear bearish breakout below the ascending trendline and the horizontal support confirms a shift in sentiment.
📉 Indicators & Confluences:
EMA Analysis:
EMA 50 (red): 1.90757
EMA 200 (blue): 1.90728
Price is trading below both EMAs, which confirms bearish momentum. Also, a bearish EMA crossover (50 crossing below 200) may be forming or has just occurred — a death cross, which further supports downside bias.
🎯 Trade Setup Breakdown (Bearish Bias):
Entry: Around 1.89760 (current price)
Stop Loss: Above the supply zone (~1.9020 - 1.9070)
Take Profit Target: Around 1.86035 (highlighted in green), aligning with previous demand zone or measured move.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): Estimated at ~3:1, making this a favorable setup.
🔽 Technical Patterns:
Bear Flag / Rising Wedge: The broken ascending pattern suggests a bearish continuation.
Retest Confirmation: Price retested the broken structure before continuing down — classic bearish retest behavior.
✅ Conclusion:
This is a textbook bearish setup supported by:
A failed breakout and structure shift
Resistance at a key supply zone
Break and retest of support
Price under both EMAs (bearish confirmation)
📌 Bias: Bearish
📌 Invalidation Level: Close above 1.9075
📌 Next Support Zone: 1.8600–1.8550 range
