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Currencybarometer

USD - Double bottom Hi folks, The USD posted a double bottom on the Daily Currency Barometer. This DOES NOT mean a reversal for the USD pairs. Not unless key price levels are breached. Look for consolidation patterns before the next push (USD sell-off). However, if key price levels fail, the USD Bulls could have their day for a bit. The only thing we know for sure at this moment: The USD needs to consolidate before another sell-off. Remember, consolidation does not mean 'pull-back'. Don't bet on another long term USD sell-off until the currency has had time to consolidate.
by riffster21
2
EURUSD - One more impulse upHi folks, The Daily Currency Barometer is showing that a consolidation is complete and the EURUSD is ready for another impulse to the upside. Both currencies consolidated to the 50 level and are making another push. If either currency breaches the 50 level I will update this post. So far, everything is set for one more impulse. This would be the 3rd impulse for the last Bull rally (by my count). I won't fade the EU until all waves/cycles are complete.
Long
by riffster21
EURJPY - Nice Short Setup (strong confirmation)Hi guys, Most of the JPY pairs are in some sort of reversal pattern at the moment. It's unclear if these reversals are consolidations or true longer term trend reversals. However, we should be able to grab some nice pips from these moves. The EURJPY is on my radar at present. The Double Top combined with a longer term trend line break, provide strong support for a trend reversal (at a short term move). In addition, my Trend Signal indicator is showing a new signal on the daily chart. NOTE: daily chart signals do not happen very often and when they do, they are powerful confirmation. We still need the current daily candle to close before we have final confirmation. My entry - I am waiting for a break below the 131.50 (ish) level. Basically, I want to see the recent swing low fail before I enter. I will place my Stop @ 133.245 and my Target @ 128.735. My entry price should be around 131.40. We have close to a 3:1 risk/reward on this trade, so the math adds up. Currency Barometer - The Long Term Currency Barometer (4 hour) shows lot's of room to the upside for the JPY, with a recent bounce off of the 50 level. The EUR looks like it wants to bounce off of the 50 level to the down side. So far, the Currency Barometer support the EURJPY to the down side.
Short
by riffster21
2
NZDJPY - Possible Long Term Trend ReversalHi guys, I mentioned this trade in my Twitter feed last week, but forgot to post here. There are lots of trend lines to support a trend reversal here, but this post is for our Currency Barometer users. We can use the Short Term Barometer (use the 8 minute interval) to time an entry for the trade like this. Trend reversals are usually bouncy and give us more than one chance to enter. Today we got a nice impulse to the upside and the Short Term Barometer gave us a clean entry. Remember, similar to an RSI or CCI, the 80 & 20 levels indicate an over-extension. I usually open a currency (in this example the NZD) and then cycle through the time frames to see where it is bouncing the 'cleanest' off of 80 and 20. Then I make a note for that currency because that interval will hold true for months at a time. Hopefully that makes sense? I was a little slow posting this, but you see the 80 level reached and rejected on the chart below: I've been told this type of trading will be covered in detail via the new 4X Global live trading sessions. Stay tuned :D
Short
by riffster21
EURUSD - Still hunting Bears (silly wabbit)Hi guys, I am still waiting for a long term entry to short the EU and we 'could' be at an important cross-roads. The Daily Currency Barometer is showing a tight pairing for the EUR and USD. Currencies cannot stay paired for very long (macro economics won't allow that to happen) and when they break apart, we usually see a fairly big move. On average, these moves push 180-240% of standard daily ATR's. For the EU, that would be about 120 pips. We still don't know if the break will push the EU higher or lower, but at least we know the move is coming. This larger impulse has been building for a long time. Look at the 4 hour chart below. With the exception of a few quickly corrected news spikes, the EUR and USD have been channeling sideways for quite awhile. A sideways channel on the Currency Barometer has the same effect as a sideways price channel. When the range is breached, the pair will run. Our macro (weekly) barometer shows the EUR backing off of up trending support a bit, but this is not a bounce. Not yet. It just means that we have a little room to push down before we test support. I still need to see a move below support before I jump into a Bearish long term trade. Until then, I'm watching and waiting. I still play the short term moves (i.e. yesterday's spike), but I can't justify a position trade just yet. The macro fundamentals still support a longer term Bearish trend for the EU, but recent data is mixed. Probably why we are bouncing inside a range. Yesterday's spike was easily timed with the Short Term Barometer. We were able to catch the top within about 5 pips. I will continue to trade the short impulses until I see a clear indication of a longer term trend. If the current Bullish price action begins to look longer term, I'll post my entry rules. Until then, I will continue to trade short term price moves and wait for confirmation of a longer term trend direction. This is not investment advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade accordingly. Trade safe and keep an eye on news.
Short
by riffster21
EURUSD - Breaking down the BearHi guys, Most folks are forecasting a Bearish impulse from the EURUSD. I do not disagree, but I would like to see more confirmation before I jump in. I posted a note about the double top about a month ago. Since the double top from EUR, EU prices have been fairly Bearish until about 2 weeks ago. Long term fundamentals seem to support a Bullish trend for the EU, but the ride has been very 'bouncy'. I'm looking for a 'cleaner' entry and more confirmation before I jump in the 'Bear-wagon'. I would like to see the EUR hold below the 50 level on the daily time frame. I would also like to see the USD push above 50. Remember to enter on a pull-back (short Bullish impulse) after confirmation. Don't chase the trend. Be patient and wait for a good entry. If the Bearish trend forms, we will have weeks to trade this move. Long term resistance is down near the 1.1030 area. This is not investment advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade accordingly. Trade safe and keep an eye on news.
Short
by riffster21
EURUSD - Next Long Term Impulse (is coming soon)Hi guys, You've probably been enjoying the EURUSD ranged market over the past week or so, but wondering where it will go next. If you remember, we had something very similar back in May. The sideways consolidation ended with a large impulse to the upside (bullish). If you look at figure #1 and #2; we are in the same type of consolidation pattern now. If the same results plays out, we will get a strong impulse to the upside (bullish) after the consolidation period is over. Daily up trending support is still holding. This suggests higher prices 'until' support fails. I would like to see a 'clean' break above 1.1280 before I open another long term position. Until then, I'll keep playing the channel with tight stops above resistance and below support. NOTE: This is not trade advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade safe and keep an eye on news.
Long
by riffster21
EURUSD - Finding a Bullish entryHi guys, The recent EURUSD trade idea posted are conflicted, but most agree on the longer term trend (up). If you are using my tools, there are a few easy ways to find trade entries. Today we want to find a Bullish entry, but we won't get another Trend Signal alert. However, Trend Signal is still confirming a Bullish trend. Our best way to find an entry is to use X Meter and Wave Trend. Wait for the bars (green) to grow taller. This will be our first signal to enter long. Our second confirmation will occur when Wave Trend crosses '0' and begins to move up. Our EURUSD Market Barometer is already crossing up and begin to print green. NOTE: this approach only works because the EURUSD formed a sideways consolation and is not ready for another push up. If you are unsure about sideways consolidation patterns, this link might help (warning - tons of pop-ups on this site, but the info is good): www.tradeciety.com This is not investment advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade accordingly. Trade safe and keep an eye on news.
Long
by riffster21
EURUSD - Consolidation finished, ready for another Bullish moveHi guys, Hopefully you caught a piece of the EURUSD consolidation (see linked idea). Most of our indicators are signaling the end of the consolidation move and the beginning of a new Bullish move. Both the X Meter and Wave Trend (30 minute time frame) are turning Bullish. The long term Currency Barometer seems to confirm this pattern. There are several Cypher patterns that also confirm a Bullish move. As soon as Trend Signal gives me an entry, I will buy the EURUSD. I will use Trend Signal as my final confirmation (as usual). NOTE: for those that follow my idea - I will focus exclusively on the EURUSD moving forward. Why? I feel the pair is easy to trade and more importantly, I need a pair with higher liquidity. My orders are getting larger enough that liquidity is effecting my fills. I usually cash out half of my account and start again, but I decided to keep building this time. This is not investment advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade accordingly. Trade safe and keep an eye on news.
Long
by riffster21
EURUSD - Over Extended, Consolidation LoomingHi guys, After a nice break, I'm back at trading! Yay! The EURUSD has been climbing for several days without a consolidation. This is due mainly to USD weakness. However, trends fade eventually and all markets must consolidate before the next push. The long term outlook for the EU is still in question (opinions vary sharply on this topic), but a short term consolidation is due. The Currency Barometer is also getting very close to being over extended and in this case is a good tool to time our entry if we decide the fade the current trend (i.e. wait for the USD to hit 20 on the 4 hour): I will wait for Currency Barometer confirmation then go short and hold for a small fibo retracement. I think the EU will continue higher on the long term. If the consolidation is much deeper than expected, we could get a nice entry spot to go long again. Now we wait. Please trade safe and smart. Keep an eye on news!
Short
by riffster21
USD - Currency Barometer UpdateHi guys, the USD is over-sold at the moment. The USD does not 'usually' spend a lot of time at the bottom or top of the barometer. I expect a bullish bounce from the USD soon. We'll see... Watch the USD pairs for key price levels. If the USD continues it's bullish push, watch to key prices for a bounce. This is a great way to trade over extended currencies. It is very 'unlikely' that a push will continue past/through a key price level. Trade the bounce. This is not investment advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade accordingly. Trade safe and keep an eye on news.
by riffster21
4
JPY & AUD - Currency Barometer UpdateHi guys, price action has been fairly 'normal' over the past several days, so there hasn't been a lot to report on via the Currency Barometer. All of the over extensions were happening on short time frames. This is excellent for day trading, but hard to post a report (i.e. the timing to enter the trade is pretty quick on shorter time frames). JPY - the JPY has a nice double top now and should weaken over the next few days. Some of the JPY pairs have already begun to turn. Watch for key price level breaks that support a weak JPY. AUD - the AUD has been bouncing in weakness for a couple of weeks now. A consolidation is long over due. Keep an eye on the AUD pairs for key price level breaks that support an AUD consolidation into strength. Do NOT try to fade any of the AUD pairs until you have key price level confirmation. These bearish trends could continue awhile longer. The sideways bouncing on the Long Term Barometer show a healthy pattern of short term consolidation with each move down. This is not investment advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade accordingly. Trade safe and keep an eye on news.
by riffster21
JPY, NZD & AUDHi guys, I was wondering why the JPY fades kept bouncing? I would get my stops to break-even and many of my trades would zero out, so I decided to dig a little deeper. It's good idea to zoom out on the Currency Barometer every few days. I mentioned the JPY double-top on the Long Term Barometer a couple days ago. When we zoom out to the 'Daily' time frame (the long term is 4 hours), we see a more clear picture of what is going on. The JPY has a double top, but it is not over extended (fully) yet. it still has room to push up before a longer term consolidation. Hence my bouncing fades. When the JPY (yellow line) hits 80, we will see a longer term consolidation from the currency. Now we wait... The daily view shows a few more interesting patterns. Here are a couple that I noticed: The NZD keeps bouncing off of the 50 level after the recent sell-off. From my experience using the barometers, one bounce at 50 means another move back in the same direction (in this case it would have been into weakness again), but 2 bounces at 50 usually means that the 50 level will fail. We should see continued strength from the NZD over the next couple of weeks. The AUD is bouncing down inside a bearish channel. Based on where we are in the channel, the next push should be 'down'. We won't see a consolidation until the AUD get near 20. This is not investment advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade accordingly. Trade safe and keep an eye on news.
by riffster21
JPY - Currency Barometer UpdateHi guys, the JPY is over extended on the long term barometer. In addition, this is a double top for the JPY. I have no idea why, but the JPY love's double tops and bottoms. Expect a reversal for the JPY pairs very soon. We may get one more small push, but the JPY can't go much further without consolidating. The AUDJPY appears to be the most over extended at the moment. I am waiting for confirmation of the reversal and then I will buy the AUDJPY. This is not investment advice, just my opinion(s). Please trade accordingly. Trade safe and keep an eye on news.
Short
by riffster21