AMAZING opportunity in GOLD. Price target 6000usd (3/3)This is publication 3 out of 3.
Please give my idea a like if you found it useful.
Chart 1:
Chart 2:
History might not always repeat itself, but it often rhymes. The similarities between these charts are astonishing. The chart on the left shows us how the gold price was setting up before the parabolic bull run in the end of the 1970s. Check out the charts above for a closer look.
Gold is nearing the end of its long consolidation period. Gold is ridiculously undervalued at this price. With strong fundamental support, this Cup and handle pattern will launch the price of Gold into the sky.
Okay, so we have a buy setup here, but where did I get my price target from?
Why do I say 6000usd as ultimate target? Well, honestly, predicting the top is going to be very difficult. Maybe we go above 6k, or maybe we top out a little below. If we compare the fib levels to the parabolic bull run in the end of the 1970s, we can see that it wicked above the 4.236 fib level. Going to the 2.618 fib level at 5400, and even wicking above - up to the psychological level at 6000usd, is not unrealistic technically speaking. I would not be surprised if we even overshoot the 3.618 fib.
We also have a variety of different correlations that supports a big growth for Gold, like the gold to monetary base ratio.
I don't have the time right now to go in depth about all the fundamental factors in play here, but here are some pointers:
- Negative real interest rates
- Gold is a tier 1 asset - store of value
- Massive currency creation
---------> inflation inevitable, -> currency crisis
we can already see signs of inflation - commodity prices are soaring
As soon as money velocity speeds up again - inflation will accelerate
-Uncertain times and political instability -> People tend to put their money in a safe asset (Gold = Safe haven) when times are uncertain
-More retail investors in the financial markets - we have seen a massive surge in retail investors and traders the past couple of years - people are becoming more informed about how the financial systems work. When crypto cools down, and all the new retail investors who thought crypto would be the best inflation hedge realise that they should diversify into other, less speculative, assets - such as Gold and other precious metals, we will gain a lot of momentum.
Currencycrisis
An Ode to Ore - The People's Money is Returning to Its ThroneLike many market observers, I am expecting a full-blown disaster to come whirling through our economy in the not-so-distant future. It will not be a simple stock market correction - or even a stock market crash. It will be worse than your run-of-the-mill mortgage crisis and is more severe than any sort of typical credit crisis. No, this time it will be a legitimate currency crisis.
The last currency crisis was seen during the Weimar Republic in 1919, and the only notable one before that occurred in France, via John Law's Mississippi Company. Having spent the last two weeks trying to understand all the elements that lead to a currency crisis, I have learned only one important takeaway - own physical gold before it happens. While society degenerates for everyone under such circumstances, having some gold (real money) before the insane "appreciation" begins will make things a bit better for those lucky few.
So, since this post is more about gold's recent and future price action, and less about a 10-year currency ruination by our beloved Fed, I will discuss the important parts of the chart above:
1) Accumulation is at all-time highs. This is extremely useful to know because it means that this recent surge is NOT a pump and dump. Unlike all the past gold rushes over the last 40 years, this one actually involves holding the physical asset, rather than paper trading ethereal futures and forwards contracts. Moreover, it means that you can buy and hold gold now without the fear of losing half of it in a month's time.
2) While physical gold is the way to go, you can also trade it on the side. Thus, it is good to know what our current price channel looks like. The bolded royal blue lines denote the start of the current trend, which, unsurprisingly, began right when the Fed declared that it will be printing trillions of USD. The word "Trillions" is so ridiculously large that even non-market participants are thinking "inflation is coming." Use this trend for the next two months unless an even more parabolic trend emerges.
3) For those that want to trade contracts over the next two weeks, see the green price trajectory. This is very likely the general path it follows - just look to any Wave II correction in the past five years for evidence.
I will probably make other gold posts (silver too) as the price action materializes into a parabola - but this should be a good starting point for those curious about the recent moves in gold (and other metals). Even if there is a crisis, it's all relative to gold in the end.
- Golden Pig
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