EURUSD W-shaped recovery formingEURUSD is rising after making a Double Bottom around 1.05265 and the 1day MA100.
We have a potential W-shaped recovery forming, off an oversold 4hour RSI.
Even though there are several Resistance levels in the way, including the 4hour MA50 and MA200 levels, are Target is 1.07800, straight the W-shaped recovery completion.
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EURUSD: 1D MA100 coming to support for first time since NovemberThe EURUSD pair turned bearish on its 1D technicals (RSI = 40.726, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 33.089) after Powell heated up a rate hike acceleration on Tuesday and the sell off hit the 3 month HL trend line. Besides this, the strongest long term Support on the chart is the 1D MA100 that was almost hit. It is holding since November 10th 2022. As long as those two hold, we are long, TP = 1.06900 (under R1). A break below, should ignore S1 and head straight for the 1D MA200, where we will turn into selling (TP = 1.03500).
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EURUSD Double Bottom with the MA100 (1D) supporting.EURUSD reached the Support Zone of February 24th-27th. As long as it holds, it is a Double Bottom.
The MA50 (1D) is under it as an additional layer of Support, holding since November 10th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.06650 (Fibonacci 0.5 and Falling Resistance limit).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4H) is rebounding after almost hitting the oversold level. This indicates a probable bullish reversal.
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EURUSD on a V-shaped recoveryEURUSD smashed through and closed over its MA50 (4h) with easy, extending today the gains.
Potentially a new Channel Up is being formed, though not necessary it can contain a strong rise.
Fibonacci 0.5 already filled.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy within the MA50 (4h) and MA50 (1h) Zone.
Targets:
1. 1.0720 (over Fibonacci 0.618 and potentially on the MA50 (1d) and MA 200 (4h).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) just turned neutral indicating possibly that there is a lot of upside remaining on this move.
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EURUSD Falling Wedge and the levels to trade.The pair reached the bottom of its Falling Wedge as well as Support A at 1.05785. The price should technically rebound to the patterns top again and the 4hour MA50.
Our strategy is to catch that rebound and sell the next leg down to 1.05235 if it continues to give a -1.25/35% decline.
If it closes over the 4hour MA50, stop selling and switch to buying, Target = 1.07800 (under Resistance A).
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EURUSD Bearish on all indicatorsEURUSD is under both the MA50 4H and MA200 4H.
Two Channel Down patterns spotted, price within both.
Death Cross 4H formed at the start of the week.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price trades below the MA50 4H.
2. Sell extension if Support (1) at 1.04850 breaks.
Targets:
1. 1.05000 (above Support 1).
2. 1.03350 (above Support 2).
Tips:
1. The MA of the RSI 4H can be used as a great entry when it breaks for intra day trading.
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EURUSD: Scalping opportunityThe EURUSD pair turned neutral technically both on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 51.027, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 32.294) and 1D (RSI = 48.083, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 32.045) and that creates the conditions for sideways trading.
Though the short term pattern may be a Channel Down, we will use the range provided by the Double Top and Double Bottom 1.07900 - 1.0670 to scalp for the rest of the week. This is more or less the 4H Bollinger Bands.
Our buy trigger is a break of R1 (1.0800) and we will TP = 1.09150 and sell trigger the bottom of S1 (1.05740) and TP = 1.0500.
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EURUSD Best long term BuyThe EURUSD hit today the 1day MA50 after a very long time, more specifically the November 4th. This is the opportunity that long term traders have been waiting for to buy as it also came very close to the bottom of the 3 month Channel Up. The previous two Higher High legs have been around +5%. A repeat of such rise will push the price as high as the 1.11850 Resistance, which is the March 31st 2022 Top. Our target is just under at 1.11500.
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DXY Straight to the 1W MA200 (98.000) is possibleDXY is trading much lower than the 1W MA50 and is unphazed by the 1W technicals that are quickly approaching an oversold state (RSI = 35.543, MACD = -0.830, ADX = 32.507). With the pattern that has been confirmed as a Head and Shoulders since the September peak, it is possible to see a straight continuation of the downtrend to at least the 1W MA200.
Since mid November we see a straight Channel Down leading the price to the imporant 101.260 Support (May 30th low). A similar bearish Channel while the RSI was that low on 1W was formed during the 2017 downtrend that hit the 1W MA200 with ease.
As a consequence, a breach of the 101.260 Support will be all the confirmation we need to extend our selling and target the 1W MA200 on the long term.
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EURUSD Channel Up transitioning into Inverse Head and Shoulders.EURUSD is trading in a 2 month Channel Up. The major impulse rises have been +/- 3.90%.
Since Dec 14th we see a structure reminding of an Inverse Head and Shoulders.
Trading Plan:
1. Wait (or sell) for the price to pull back and test the MA50 1D.
2. Buy if it breaks the Jan 18th high earlier.
Targets:
1. 1.1000
2. 1.1300
Tips:
During uptrends, best risk management is to enter then the RSI 1D is at or below 50.00.
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GBPUSD 1.4500 long-term targetTwo patterns have been spotted on GBPUSD: an Inverted Head and Shoulders that formed the market bottom on September 26th and a Channel Up that is guiding the price higher. The 1D technicals are marginally above neutral levels (RSI = 55.748, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 34.526), indicating that there is still considerable upside potential.
The price is testing the 1W MA50 for the second time since Dec 15th. The Lower Highs Resistance (LH) is technically the level to beat for the Channel Up and if that happens we will buy into it and aim for the 1W MA200. The Channel Up won't last of course for long but based on the Inverted Head and Shoulders structure the 2X target for the long-term is 1.4500.
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USDJPY Nearing 1st Support. Rebound possible.The USDJPY pair is approaching the 1st Support level of 125.510 (May 24th 2022 formation) after a double top rejection last Friday. Trading inside a Channel Down for almost two months, naturally on very bearish 1D technicals (RSI = 30.378, MACD = -1.840, ADX = 17.362) with the RSI almost oversold, it is expected that a technical rebound will occur.
The short-term target is the top of the Channel, with a break capable of inflicting an extension as high as the 134.750 Resistance. The RSI's Rectangle can be a guide for buying/ selling inside the Channel Down.
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EURUSD Hasn't been that overbought October-end.The EURUSD pair is on a very strong Resistance juncture. On the 4H time-frame, the technicals are highly overbought (RSI = 70.959, MACD = 30.330, ADX = 35.204) and the RSI in particular hasn't been that overbought since October 26th 2022, which was a short-term top at the time leading to a pull-back.
The main pattern is a Bullish Megaphone with upside potential still but the shorter patterns show a Higher Highs (HH) hit and an Aggressive Rising Wedge that need correction.
If the price breaks below the Wedge, we anticipate at least a direct hit on the 4H MA200, if not the 1D MA50, which is headed for the bottom of the Bullish Megaphone. The upside target is 1.09360, the High of April 21st 2022.
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EURUSD: Trading plan after the FedThe great trading range that EURUSD is giving continues as the 4H MA50 held again as Support and following the lower than expected U.S. CPI, the price finally broke above the 1.06180 Resistance (June 27th High) and targets long-term the 1.07870 May 30 High. 4H is on normal bullish technicals (RSI = 67.702, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 50.538) but the 1D RSI (70.841) just broke into the overbought zone for the first time since December 30 2020 (!).
That confirms the trend shift to long-term bullish but calls for a necessary relief pull-back first towards the 1D MA50 (now at 1.01408 and rising). First tight buy on the 4H MA50 and if it closes below take the small loss and go after the 4H MA200 (1.02826 and rising). Strongest buy for the long term is near the 1D MA50.
EURUSD No long term rebound starts until the 1W MA100 breaksThe EURUSD pair is rising non stop since the end of September and this week broke above the 1W MA50 (blue line) for the first time since June 2021. Though technically a major break out, history shows that this alone is not enough to justify a continuation of the uptrend.
Since 2015, EURUSD extends the rise only when the 1W MA100 breaks (green line) and even then, it first makes one last fall before a new high. The 1W RSI in fact is similar to the massive rise of early 2015, which consolidated for nearly 2 years before finally breaking to the upside.
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EURUSD Rejected on 1W MA50. Pullback test of 1D MA50 possible.The EURUSD pair is trading inside a Channel Up, having established the 1D MA200 (orange line) as Support. The rejection on the 1W MA50 (red line) yesterday however can turn the trend downwards on the short term as the rally since late September may be in need of relief. The RSI is a testament to this as it has been trading sideways since Nov 11, unable to break above 70.00 while the price was inside the Channel Up.
We expect a rejection either now or on the 0.618 Fibonacci (1.07566) to the 1D MA50 (blue line). There is also a Higher Lows Support even lower than can sustain this uptrend long term. Be bullish long term but either buy more comfortably lower or scale the buys if it moves higher. Our target by March is the 0.786 Fibonacci (1.10887).
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EURUSD: Breaking one Resistance after the otherNew High today, 4th straight green 1D candle and EURUSD is only a few points away from hitting the 1.06180 (June 27th High) Resistance. If it breaks it, we will take another buy and target the 1.0787 (May 30th High) Resistance as the 1D technicals remain strong (RSI: 69.918, MACD: 0.014, ADX: 43.547). As far as Friday's NFP is concerned, it happened exactly as planned, the higher than expected number caused a sell-off initially as the market translated it as a sign that a growing U.S. economy might make the Fed soften the hikes by a lesser extend to what Powell mentioned earlier this week. However, this is a positive reading on the long-term. This bullish trend will be invalidated if the price breaks below 1.03200, in which case we will sell and target the 4H MA200 (currently at 1.01426 and rising).
AUS-USD (uptrend)Quick Trading Journal Entry:
Uptrend expected, to the upper line on the orange rectangle-condensed trading zone (resistance at the blue horizontal line, 0.76417 ).
Major resistance at red horizontal line (0.78422).
Expected peak of the uptrend, around: October 31st , with the relative strength index peaking at the 80% marker. The R.S.I also broke out of a long downtrend (green line). Breaking above 0.78422 would be unlikely , since the R.S.I at the point would be overbought, above 80%. Divergence is a possibility, with a peak around November 10th.
Trading is expected to stay within the purple parallel lines though, for both the Price chart and R.S.I Chart.
The pink circle on the relative strength index could predict an "M" bearish pattern signifying a possible immediate downtrend.