CVX
CVX @ 15 min @ GAP (116 & 118) should be a recreational poolCVY got an challenging 15min chart - no question !!! But also tradeable ...
The trend channel starts more or less around 114 & 116 this week & ends around 115 & 117 more or less. But much more important is the GAP (after OPEC news while weekstart - even last monday) even between 116 & 118. `cause you can see, while last trading day (on friday) traders traded CVX in something like a breakout-formation (two times higher highs & higher lows) - but under weekly high from monday. And from thuis point of view, i am wouldn`t wondering if CVX the GAP develop to something like a recreational pool next week (between 116 & 118) ...
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a analysis (for swing traders) - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
With swing trading i mean (in this context) until end of this trading week :)
Best regards
Aaron
CHEVRON @ 15 min @ last big Resistance around 109.27 left behind2014 CVY was traded between 109.27 (low before ATH) & 135.10 (ATH)
Important is my opinion, from the technical point of view also the fact, that the 1st Downside Wave after ATH (Aa, Bb & Cc) created a last high (C) by 120.17. And this should be also the first target into 2017 ...
1st GAP bewteen 113.14 & 112.48
2nd GAP between 112.55 & 112.07
3rd GAP between 111.28 & 110.64
These are all buying oppurtunities - this week & next week.
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
BEARISH RATING - XLE (SPDR SELECT SECTOR - ENERGY)It's been about seven sessions since we first issued our real time rating on XLE as bearish, and we still believe there will be opportunity to the downside.
Volatility should continue as headline risk prompts uncertainty in the markets. Even if Saudi Arabia did happen to freeze or reduce production, it could not be enough in the long-term to offset production by Iran, Iraq, Russia and US shale producers. Furthermore, as we stated well over a year ago, the continuously slowdown in global economic growth will put a damper on crude prices.
Here is our note from 9.14.16:
Fundamentally, we do not see a meaningful resolution between Saudi Arabia and Russia curtailing their massive crude production, in part do to the unwillingness of Iran to freeze production until it reaches 4 m/bbl per day in production. With Russia - and most of OPEC - continuing course, any production cuts by domestic producers will be offset, and the supply glut will continue.
What is troubling, too, is the IEA reduced its demand forecasts by 100,000 barrels due to weaker demand from Asia. The report suggested that the supply-demand imbalance will last until the first half of 2017. If subscribers remember, we foretasted, in August 2015, that demand would continue to slow due to the global slowdown and that Chinese demand would wane. The inability for the consensus to forecast the sharp decline in global economic growth has left crude prices quite volatile.
We expect ongoing EIA inventory data to favor crude bears as the industry heads into the seasonally weak winter months.
Technically, a break below $68 will press ascending support. We like the technical indicator make-up that suggests that the next leg of selling is beginning as long as it is supported by key fundamental factors. As bulls continue to unwind longs, the z-score will turn bearish which we prefer on the short-side until -1.5 to -2. Bearish targets are set up on key support.
Rating Specifics :
Signal Trigger: $67.98
Signal Threshold: $70.02
Signal Opportunity: $60
R/R Ratio: 3.91
Duration: 1 to 3 months
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Chevron sell the rallyAfter a strong impulse down Chevron is in what appears to be a corrective structure.
We will be waiting for a break out of the lower trend line. Once that happens we will watching on lower time frames for a retest and rejection before taking the short position. The targets would be 55, 30 & 15 which are previous strong support levels.
If the rally breaks up and out of the 110 level then this trade will be invalid.
Pairing CVX and XOMCVX reached a major Monthly Resistance in the past week and today saw major volume in sold shares and bought Puts which drew my attention. CVX Option volatility is still above average so the best play would be buying Vertical Put Spreads. Buying the September 16 95/92.5 Spread for $0.58 yields a greater than 3:1 Reward/Risk if it reaches max profit. I'm aiming for a 8.5% bearish move with earnings one month away to act as a catalyst which is reasonable.
The best company to hedge the short trade with in terms of industry and market cap is XOM. For the hedge to match the risk and movement I went with the October 16 95/97.5 Call Spread for $0.60. I'm aiming for a 8.5% bullish move and this stock also has earnings on the same date a month away.
Expectancy on this trade is 54% with 2.4:1 Reward/Risk.
Bearish Gartley and Bearish Pinbar after earningsWeekly bearish Gartley - $CVX
The Gartley's PRZ is between 103$ and 110$.
You can see that the pattern completion zone also comes with a weekly structure zone and in addition, last week's weekly candle closed as a bearish Pinbar pattern.
Aggressive traders can probably seek for reasons to sell $CVX as long as the price respects the PRZ.
More conservative traders should probably wait for a close below 100$ to confirm a False Break to that psychological level.
Based on the weekly chart, $CVX can decline towards 90-91$ to complete a weekly correction move.
The 98$ zone, a daily support zone, can also be used as potential target zone for those who seek for shorter term trades.
Tomer, The MarketZone
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"UPDATE STATUS IN ENERGY" $CL_F $USO $DWTI $UWTI $Oil $XLE $DTO CRUDE FOUND BALANCE AND WAS MET WITH SELLERS AT THE HIGH....
WATCH FOR AREA AT 41.80 -40.00 FOR A POSSIBLE LAUNCH TO RETEST THE HIGHS...
WE NEED TO CLEAR THE AREA OF RESISTANCE TO ACT THE $55 MAGNET AREA.
ANY FAILURE WILL SEND THIS BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER BASE
The bulls have to be careful with Chevron.Chevron is pretty much following the expected path but now caution is warranted. We are quite confident there's some life left in the Energy sector that should push CVX towards 104 our ideal target with a possibility to reach 110 the 61.8% retracement and the apex of a previous triangle but with the overall stock market getting a bit thin I would definitely take some money off the table above 98.