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CVX

SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the CourseTraders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback. Here , we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11 low has seen volume under the 20-day average. On balance volume is not supporting this move. Next, when deciphering a mere pullback following a steep decline or an inflection point, think what is the "smart money" doing? Simple. They've been selling to the dumb money for the last five weeks . Corporate buybacks continue to be the only demand in US equities. Fundamentally, the index is highly expensive versus historical valuations. At a 21.79 P/E, the SPX is over 5 points over its mean. It's over 11 points higher that the "sweet spot." Shiller P/E, which tracks 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings, is at 24.98 (also, historically expensive outside a recession). Furthermore, earnings are, indeed, rolling over (along with the business cycle) while real earnings growth is cratering at -14.5 percent. Last time that happen, the US saw a recession in the early-90s, the recession following the tech bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. See that here ! Aside from there lack of conviction with permabulls being scooped up in buyback fever, the index is about 160 points of its most recent low. Yesterday, price action closed at daily resistance at 1,978 and near the 50% Fib. level from this years epic start. If it can close above these two levels, the next level that is key is 2,020. If bulls overtake this level a potential retest of 2,071 is probable. However, this is how I believe it will go as the dollar continues to strengthen and the Fed continues to be out of place: A bear market scenario like those that followed the tech bubble and financial crisis would put the SPX near 1,078. This year, we've also seen SocGen's Albert Edwards forecast a potential 75% decline for the broader index. 17 months ago, I published a chart showing a whopping 71% potential decline in SPY from then current levels . Granted, this was merely based on historical references and calculation, but interesting nontheless. Will you get a chair when the music stops? Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
SP:SPX
by CommoditiesTrader
6
THIS WEEK'S OPTIONS WORTHY EARNINGS PLAYS -- DIS, BIDU, TSLAUnfortunately, I was fiddling around so much with setups in index ETF's and GLD last week that I didn't get a chance to do a single earnings play ... But it's all good. Naturally, if volatility remains high in SPY, DIA, QQQ, and/or IWM, I'll continue to work those. However, while I'm waiting for some kind of bounce to occur to leg into the short call side of those on strength, maybe I'll be able to fit one of these plays in just to keep myself entertained. CVS -- announces on 2/9 (Tuesday) before market open. Implied volatility rank: 83/implied volatility 31. I'll have to look at that one closer to earnings. The implied vol number suggests that while volatility is temporarily high, it's just not one of those underlyings that are very volatile generally speaking. DIS -- announces on 2/9 (Tuesday) after market. Its implied volatility rank isn't quite where I'd like it (63; >70 is better), but you never know what'll happen going into the last couple of days here. BIDU -- announces "some time" on 2/10, which could be before/after market (you'd think they'd know at this point ... ). High implied volatility rank (83) plus high volatility (58) equals good premium. I would probably just look to put on a play on Tuesday if the premium looks attractive (it does right now; even for an iron condor setup). WYNN -- announces "some time" on 2/10. Rank: 95/implied 80. This little guy is not for the faint of heart. I've been in and out of WYNN several times this year as a non-earnings premium selling play and it whips all over the place, with a Daily 14-Period ATR of between 3 and 4 bucks ... . TSLA -- announces on 2/10 after market close. What's not to like about a TSLA play? Implied volatility rank is at 100 and the implied volatility is 82. Beaucoup premium ... . There are naturally a bunch of others announcing earnings, it's just that they're not necessarily good premium selling plays due to their implied volatility, so they'll probably just have to be played some other way ... .
NYSE:DIS
by NaughtyPines