CWH Bearish inclined naked calls 17 June expiry
Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
CWH is part of the Recreational Vehicles sector, that came out of my shortlist of companies with medium level volatility in the past month
Across the sector there is a bearish alignment which is important
I do expect some volatility with an upwards movement as price across the markets might stabilise from the past 5 weeks of back to back drops
Risk Mitigation
Very clear S&R lines. If price breaks S&R 1, I will have to close the trade.
I Feel
I feel confident about this trade as I will be using my S&R lines as a risk mitigator.
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
With the bearish price action from the past 5 weeks, selling puts would be too risky and almost as if you are trying to guess the bottom
Look For New Information
Dividends is happening on the 13 June. But I have not seen this event result in volatility
How Do I Feel Now
Good, I’m clear
Trade Specs
Sold 236 Calls @ 0.25 - Strike 34
23.6% to Strike
BP Used 66.9K
Max Gain $5,900
Cwh
THO - RV sector on fireThere's a secret sector most people dont talk about and its the RV sector! Due to covid, its the only way to get away and vacation, lol. Thor reported earnings last week and said RV backlog increased by $4.31 billion, or 454.1%, to $5.25 billion at January 31, 2021, compared to $948.1 million as of January 31, 2020!! CWH - camping world holdings rose 30% just last week! Look for THO to test all time highs as long as SPY keeps up. Cheers!
CWH: Major Insider Buying along with Expanding Margins = WinnerCWH has been one of the big winners of COVID19, as families look to spend more time outdoors while being socially distant. Marcus Lemonis, the CEO, has increased his position by over 100% through purchasing over 250K shares. The stock has recently been on a down trend since it's high of 42. It has recently broken that downward resistance line, and I believe a move to the 40s is in store.
Here are my 5 reasons for the long term hold.
1- A+ ceo. He has also increased his position from 257,504 shares to 544,221 (+113%). From $10 to $32
2- expanding margins- They are creating an RV-valuator + AirBnB for RVs through their “Good Sam” brand.
3- Camping/outdoors has experienced growth like never before because Covid
4- all demographics buy RVs ( average monthly payment for RV $300 a month/ average purchase price of RV only $30K
5- Breaking out from downward resistance trendline.
Let's Go Camping and Do the Party!COVID Part Deux season is upon us.
People still want to travel. Will airlines and cruises come back in to favor this time or will they still face headwinds through this season until next summer? TSA data suggests some decent increase in traffic, but still a bit meh. Completely expected. Seems difficult to really know sentiment in the short term as some indications of lockdown are reemerging, but along with that is some rejection of the population who are tired of the continued pressure from above.
So what to do?
Do you like the outdoors? I do! What’s not to like? It’s a cheap way to vacation, it keeps you away from those scary people who might have a virus. Hell, you can sit around the campfire with them enjoy the company, from a distance. Then talk smack about them later probably having the virus from the comfort of your own camper.
Look at the RV explosion that happened post 9/11 when everyone was afraid of flying.
Repeat performance? I think so!
Check into the company. Talk about strength in concept and numbers! Do your homework.
Swing Trade Idea:
Entry 29.50
S/L 27.85
3/1 Risk/Reward = 34.45
Higher Risk/Reward would be a scale in entry (my preference) at current market 30.16 ah traded price, 29.82, 29.50
T1 – 36.54
T2 – 41.46
T3 – 47.25 (0.618 fib ext based on COVID low and bull flag high/low)
Longer-term targets based on pitchfork and fib ext listed below.
*** Yellow paths are artists conception.
If this thesis and path plays out the rejection from 22.60 (200ma) on 11/09/20 may have been the bottom of the cup for a future Cup and Handle and/or the head of a large Inverse Head and Shoulders. Either way, in that case, the 0.618 fib target is just the beginning. Following the pitchfork out we could possibly see 73.08 (1.272 fib ext) or even 86.74 (1.618 fib ext) trade in the future.
This one is a longer term swing for me.
ASX: ARF - CwH FormationBeen triggered into a pending order i had set for this, a little bit of a sharp move into it which was not ideal but will see how it plays out.
The trend is up and price formed a CwH pattern and has broken the resistant level, at this stage it is looking like a bit of a fake out happened.
Will see how this plays out on Monday, i want to see price push back up above 2.92, if this does not happen within the first couple of days i may look to exit this trade.
CWH IdeaCWH will be a watch for the week of 10/5.
There has been consolidation over the last 6-8 weeks and there is a chance at a break out.
We have the buy signal with the MACD indicator, and RSI looks like it has some more room to go.
I will be watching closely tomorrow (10/5). If CWH can break 33.43, next level is 36.71