CX
Will the Elliot Triangle Wave Pattern Work for "$CIMSA" Again?What to-look for ?
Follow up the trend and seek for possible position entries.
Set that yellow triangle as your safety stop.
The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
#Cemex #CX - Long PositionCemex has bullish signals on 1D, 1W as well as 1M TF.
MFI is currently at 15 which is an all-time-low on the 1M TF. RSI is at 31 which is near the RSI support zone (29-23) of last few years.
When you have a closer look on the MACD (zoom in) you can see a W-formation in the MACD histogram which will lead to a bullish MACD cross soon.
A bullish cross will also form on the WaveTrend oscillator on the monthly TF soon.
Bullish momentum on StochRSI will build up and the next bullish cycle will start.
Price could raise to 0.236 Fib resistance which is near $10.
SL can be placed slightly below the all-time low (below $1.79).
With entry @$3.40, TP@$9.69 and SL@ $1.69 R:R is 3.68.
At least a reversion to the mean can be expected (to about $7).
WARNING:
I´m not a financial advisor. For educational purpose only!
CX: Interesting monthly and quarterly signals$CX is an interesting company here. I have liked the negativity surrounding Mexico, and emerging markets since Trump got elected, now we have a solid breakout on strong volume, and a potential monthly and even quarterly uptrend taking off from here.
$CX has had strong growth in the past quarter and year, I think it can be a solid performer going forward. Management efficiency has been high, when compared to the average of the past 5 years.
Fundamentals are solid, with a decent 5.9% earnings yield, 15% free cash flow yield, this company might be a great value play going forward.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
WEEK OF 11/20: HIGH IV IN PETRO UNDERLYINGS; NOT MUCH ELSEWHEREAfter having gone through my usual routine of screening for high implied volatility rank/high implied volatility underlyings for plays this coming week, one thing stands out: the implied volatility is in petro, with stocks like CHK, SDRL, WFT, PBR and the like rounding out my top 10 IV list.* With OPEC talks approaching here, and "friskiness" in petro-based underlyings likely to ensue, I'm loathe to pile into more petro, particularly if it involves a bullish assumption. The "more likely than not" outcome is no meaningful OPEC agreement as to cuts, which means oil down, which means further long opportunities below somewhere. If the contrarian outcome comes to pass (i.e., "meaningful cuts"), well, then I've just plain ass missed an opportunity to add long positions here and will have to make do with the bullish assumption positions I've got on here.
That being said, the "Top 10" list isn't entirely bereft of possibilities, depending on your risk tolerance and aversion to roller coasters.
For example, GPRO may be worth a bullish assumption play here on the notion that Christmas sales of its drones will be "brisk," something we probably won't know unless GPRO discloses its unit sales before its Q4 earnings announcement next year. The nearest to the 20-delta strike short put, 45 DTE, however, is the Dec 30th 8.5, which would bring in .36 ($36)/contract at the mid -- not exactly something that gets me excited. Even assuming I wanted to go nondirectional (short strangle/straddle, iron condor/fly), I can't squeeze enough out of those setups premium wise to make it worthwhile.
VRX is, well, VRX. The Dec 30th 14.5 short put (currently the 19 delta) goes for .66 ($66) at the mid price. That isn't bad, but I have to put up with sitting on pins and needles for 5 weeks or more with that setup. The alternative would be to go with a defined risk setup (not keen on being caught undefined in a potential whipsaw). Even there, however, an iron condor won't pay out at least 1.00 in credit without forcing the wings in beyond the 1 SD (I prefer more room with volatile biotech), and I'm not sure that I would want to go with the narrower breakevens of a fly, in spite of the fact that the credit I'd receive at the door would be more than sufficient. (A Dec 30th 13/18/18/23 iron fly would bring in 2.78, for example).
Well, what about AMD? That's in the list ... . Like its semicon counterpart, NVDA, AMD's been on a rip and the place to have gotten in was lower for a bullish assumption play (scratches "short put" off his list). And nondirectional doesn't pay enough: the Dec 30th 8.5 short straddle would bring in a 1.44 credit at the mid (I like to get at least 2.00 out of those); the 7/10.5 short strangle, .40 at the mid. Defined risk (flies, condors) will bring in even less.
CLF? Same deal (can't get much out of the 45 DTE 20 delta short put; short straddle/strangle, iron condor/fly bring in too little premium).
Ugh.
Sometimes, these holiday weeks are best for hand sitting ... . Looks like this is going to be "par for the course."
* -- The top 10 implied volatility stocks (in descending order): CHK, WFT, VRX, CLF, AMD, GPRO, PBR, RIG, VALE, CX, UNG.