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Cyberensemble

CYBER ENSEMBLE performance on the 15mins timeframe.But the CYBER ENSEMBLE indicator still works the best on the 3hrly for BTC (or 2/4 hrs depending on market phases -- just do a comparative back-test for maximum confluence of recent price actions/trends ); where the more erratic price movements during low liquidity phases tends to be averaged/smoothened out. See: However, it is sometimes useful to go down to lower (e.g. 15 mins timeframes) during fast price movement -- like with the recent BTC pump.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
3
All in if BTC finds support above 200 SMA on 3 hrly @ ~6580 USDIf BTC can pierce above the orange 200 SMA on the 3 hrly @ 6580 USD, then I am all in with the rest of the USDT from BTC that I had previously cost-average sold off at ca. 9636 USD when the price dipped below the orange 200 SMA. Stop loss earlier triggered and sold off almost 30% of my small BTC trading account holdings. :( Bought back in immediately when BTC pierced above 6143 again. "PRISM Signals" triggered a buy on the 3 hrly (indicating bullish momentum/acceleration trends). CYBER ENSEMBLE also registered a buy on the 3hrly earlier, strengthening the case for a bullish short-term bias. A more zoomed in and "cleaner" view: "Cleaner" zoomed out view, showing only the 200 SMA on the 3 hrly: Continued from:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
2
BTC coming down to re-visit *local 61.8% Fib level.Also pierced below the ascending channel while going sideways since 24th Mar '20. If the bearish scenario doesn't play through more strongly and violently soon, that's a window for the bulls to take over after the Sunday candle closes. (a) If that holds, establishing the next high low, expects a bounce to set a new higher high. (b) If that fails, expect it to drop further down to 38.2%. Speculatively, I'm biased towards the bullish scenario since the dip is occurring during a weekend, if and only if scenario (a) holds till Monday. Momentum Analysis: See also previous analysis. Note the Fibs-levels there was drawn as the Fib-retrace from the top to the bottom of the SPX-correlated dump on 12th Mar '20.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
2
BTC retesting the 61.8% Fib of the recent massive dump.BTC retesting the 61.8% Fib retrace level of the recent massive dump -- as drawn from top to bottom of the dip since it produces higher degree of confluence wrt to the VPVR levels. If the current 3hrly candle, retesting the 61.8% Fib, closes above, I will be going all in (Long) with the rest of my BTC trading account; with stop-loss set and constantly updated at below the 21 EMA. I'm now short-term bullish. However for me to become mid-to-long-term bullish, the BTC needs to pierce above the 50% Fib @ 7161 USD and hold. CYBER ENSEMBLE had earlier signaled a sell on the 1hrly marking the start of the retest. Will also adjust stop-loss to protect any gains made if the sell signal is triggered on the 3hrly, which is the timeframe that the CYBER ENSEMBLE Buy/Sell indicator is optimized at (see past/historical confluence). ================================ Far-longer-term outlook: ================================ With the "Banana Republic" style "quantitative easing" and "infinite liquidity" (i.e. money printing) not just in the US, but Europe, UK, Japan, and China as well, below is my comparison between Fiat (centralized manipulated currencies) vs. Bitcoin (the decentralized internet of value). --- Fiat, manipulated by centralized authority. Value is based on trust to said centralized authority. Bitcoin, presently highly speculative and volatile asset due to low market liquidity (akin to a penny stock with similarly low market capitalization). Value is determined purely by market demand (mostly speculative trading at the moment). However Bitcoin's SUPPLY cannot be manipulated and cannot be confiscated by the government, nor can it be shut down due to its decentralized and adaptive nature. Unlike the heavy solid Gold, you can "carry" Bitcoin to anywhere in the world with you (undetected/unconfiscatable) just by remembering a 12-24 words phrase to re-generate the private key. Base layer (layer 1) of BTC is slow and can only have a very limited transaction rate (still faster and way cheaper than international transfers via Swift). However, this could be increased in the future with more miners as well as with consensus among majority of the miners to increase block-size to fit the growing needs. Further, 2nd layer solutions, such as the lightning network is already being built to allow for almost instant and "zero fees" transfers, while layer 1 will simply act as the highly secure settlement layer into the future. Wallets can get hacked due to poor security practice. Centralised crypto exchanges can get hacked (they similar to centralized banks). But it is virtually impossible to hack the actual Bitcoin network. Still not very user-friendly to use atm, but like with the internet, this will naturally improve as adoption and integration to existing devices grows. Significant friction of entry (i.e. converting Fiat into Bitcoin), but have significant improved compared to just 5 years ago. Certain more authoritarian governments have tried to shut down exchanges and trading, however, P2P exchange persists under the radar regardless. Instant international transfer of large amount with comparatively negligible fees compared via outdated and sluggish banking systems relying on Swift. A presently highly risky short-term investment, with not much real-world use as of yet other than for speculative trading within developed countries. While is utilized as a necessary hedge (discretely outside the view of authoritarian governments) in countries experiencing hyperinflation -- where Bitcoins value volatility is nothing compared to the certain significant drop in the value of their centralized authority manipulated Fiat currencies. The printing of money is effectively a redistribution of wealth -- sucking "value" from everyone (including the savings of the collective middle income groups) typically to the ultra-wealthy -- as corporate welfare and socialism for the rich. ================================ Entry/Exit/Target Strategy, and Risk-to-Reward Previous analysis, waiting for this very entry condition to be met: PRISM Oscillators RSI and STOCHs Relative Candle Volatility/Directionality Indexes {RCVI/RCDI}
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by cybernetwork
2
Updated traditional market (SPX) normalised Bitcoin (XBT) ChartNow that a new somewhat trending market structure is starting to form after the recent "blackswan" triggered dump correlated to the tradition markets, here's a re-look at the SPX normalised Bitcoin chart to look out for bullish decoupling in a time where the traditional market remains bearish. In summary, for BTC to switch into a bullish "decoupling" phase wrt to the traditional market, the ratio needs to at least break up above the Ichicloud and finds support; at least that is where I will set my buy in point (at around 2.36, and then stop-loss at below 2.09 after). See initial look and discussions on this experimental analysis attempt:
BITMEX:XBT
by cybernetwork
SPX normalised XBT chart.BTC is still presently being treated as a risk asset. IMO, only when the need arises globally (i.e. significant or even hyper-inflation), could it then potentially decouple (i.e. think Venezuela), and be treated more as a safe-haven. This chart shows the Bitcoin (XBT) chart normalized by the S&P 500 index (SPX). A 50/200 SMA golden cross have only just emerged on the 1Mar2020. Will continually monitor this chart can update this publication periodically. :) See also my recent analysis on the S&P 500 chart: On the 1D chart, we technically have already entered (at the very least) a mini-recession. Will this transform into a full-blown recession or even a depression? Whether the weekly 200 SMA will hold will tell. Fundamentally, the bubble have already gotten wayyy too big -- Obama, instead of fixing the underlying problem, allowed the issue to continue by bailing out the broken banking system (taking tax payer's money to feed the welfare system for the big corporations and the mega wealthy -- where the CEOs and corporate executives had continued to shamelessly pay themselves massive bonuses and pay-cheques after collapsing the economy, while cutting jobs and pay for the middle class staffs; and after that, Trump continue to feed the bubble into the monstrosity it is today (with debt that needs to be paid back sooner or later). Trumps's answer to the crazy US debt? "Easy we can just print more money". Long-term, I remain cautiously bullish on Bitcoin. :)
BITMEX:XBT
by cybernetwork
BTCUSD 7Mar20: Bullish/Bearish ScenariosBullish: Coming down to 8732 USD and bouncing off, establishing a higher local low? Bearish: Dropping back down to the 50% Fib level @ 8507 USD, and probably will then retest 8732 USD before failing and falling deeper down. Present course of action?: Wait & watch for next move. Price likely to drop lower first for both cases. Set stop-loss for bearish case (@ ca. 8675 USD) with the aid of the RCVI Stop-Limit Selector Script. Fresh PRISM Signals' Buy signal triggered (suggesting an underlying positive acceleration of the momentum increase). However, need to wait for Cyber Ensemble for technical confirmation -- which actually recently signaled a sell instead. Clear bullish signs of accumulation present. However, the actual PRISM acceleration/jerk oscillators look weak. Significant low reversal earlier triggered on FUSIONGAPS V5 Continued from:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
BTC: "Buy" signal on my Cyber Ensemble script triggered. BUT..BTC have finally now tested strong support zone between 8.5-8.6k USD. ------ Also appear to have found support above the 61.8% Fib retrace. A bounce looks possible on the short term, but won't be too bullish. PRISM Momentum is rising again, while PRISM's primary oscillator indicates oversold condition. Price needs to recover back above blue zone again and be supported by it (and hold), for me to feel truly bullish again in the mid-term again (i.e. within the next week or two); for now, I'm playing it cautiously @ ca. 9633 USD Or at least, it needs to pierce back above the 78.6% Fib-retrace level, and through the Ichimoku Cloud ({Cybernetwork} settings) and be supported by it, putting it back within the descending channel again @ ca. 9450 USD. This will prevent the 50/200 DMA death cross from occurring. There's a possibility for price to fall even lower after a more probable weak recovery (i.e. anything below 9450 USD), to drop further down to 8k USD (or an even more bearish scenario, down to 38.2% Fib-retrace level at 7745 USD) so I'm preparing for that scenario as well. On the 1D chart, it simply looks like a retest on the 61.8% Fib-retrace level and testing the green Ichicloud for the first time. Provided that the 1D Ichicloud does not flip negative, and price doesn't go significant below 8475 USD, and appear to be rejected by the 8.5k USD level, I will remain cautiously bullish into the longer term (i.e. next mth or two). ============= My short term prediction for the price to first bounce off above 9 and 9.5k USD, or at least move relatively sideways didn't work out. Price went straight to my mid-to-long term target around 8.5-8.6k USD -- showing that market is exhausted for now, and I won't be expecting a parabolic run up again anytime soon, as well as highlighting the need to set sensible stop-limits to protect your funds and limit risk no matter how bullish/bearish one may "feel" about the market. Looks like the market needs time to consolidate and stabilize first. See previous analysis: and
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
Possible downward channel ETH is now in. 228 USD target?Looks like price will want to bounce up again in the shorter term, and even eventually go down to 215-228 USD @ the 61.8% Fib-ext level. Speculation: ETH possibly making its way up after hitting 61.8% level to overcome resistance -- to signal a pump much higher after completing a bull-flag formation. Acceleration is trending upwards into the positive now, which is expected to pull Momentum higher again. As usual, highly dependent on BTC chart too. Buy Signal triggered on PRISM Signals on the 1hr timeframe. Will wait for it to be triggered on the 3hrly time frame (where there's better confluence) for confirmation. See prior analysis:
GEMINI:ETHUSDShort
by cybernetwork
BTC now tested and supported by bottom of channel.Clearer signs of a positive change in momentum. Price moved further down from ca. 9500 USD support, divergent from Cyber Ensemble buy signal. Will wait for it to be confirmed for 2-3 more candles and as previously mentioned: " Will wait for (the blue buy signal on) PRISM Signal to trigger as well perhaps, then relook at the chart and PRISM oscillators, before if a breakout higher is imminent or will price more likely break down lower infact. " Also as before mentioned, there's a chance for it to go relatively sideways down to 8600-8500 USD first before recovering -- so need to wait for confirmation before making any move.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by cybernetwork
ETH more likely to fall back down?Cyber Ensemble sell signal triggered on the 3hrly. BTC also looking weak atm: However still need to wait for the breakup/down for confirmation and look at the macro timeframes. IMO shorter timeframes doesn't predict price movement towards the end of a consolidation that well. 1D chart bullish in the longer term, but looks like it wants to come down to revisit 216-228 USD first. i.e. could set 50% of the trading pool to catch a break up, and the other 50% to catch a break down at appropriate levels. See previous analysis:
GEMINI:ETHUSD
by cybernetwork