Zscaler: Wave (2) Correction! After a rapid rise in early September, the ZS stock managed to reach the highs from August, but there was no significant acceptance at this level. Structurally, the upward movement isn't sufficient for us to consider wave (2) as completed. So far, the bullish signals lack a clear impulsive character, and we expect new lows during the magenta wave (2), which should primarily end above the support at $84.93. Once a trend reversal has been initiated, the subsequent wave (3) should push through the resistance at $251.45. According to our 33% likely alternative scenario, this could also happen directly.
Cybersecurity
Can a Crystal Ball Really Predict the Future of Tech?In an era where artificial intelligence promises to reshape the technological landscape, Palantir Technologies has emerged as a testament to the power of long-term vision meeting present opportunity. The company's remarkable third-quarter performance, marked by a 30% revenue surge to $725.5 million and doubled net income, isn't merely a financial triumph—it's a validation of two decades spent perfecting the art of data analytics while others were still grappling with its fundamentals.
What sets this trajectory apart is Palantir's unique ability to bridge two seemingly disparate worlds. On one side, its deep-rooted expertise in government and defense contracts, evidenced by a 40% growth in U.S. government sales to $320 million, demonstrates unparalleled capability in handling sensitive, mission-critical data. On the other, its commercial division's explosive growth, particularly in the U.S. market with a 54% revenue increase, reveals an organization that has successfully translated complex government-grade technology into practical business solutions.
The company's strategic positioning, however, tells a more intriguing story beyond the numbers. While competitors scramble to adapt to the AI revolution, Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) represents the culmination of years spent understanding the nuances of data integration and security. This foundation, combined with innovative approaches like their hands-on "boot camps" where clients work directly with Palantir engineers, suggests that perhaps the company named after Tolkien's all-seeing orbs has indeed developed a knack for anticipating the future of enterprise technology.
When Does a Digital Guardian Become a Digital Liability?In a dramatic turn of events that has captivated both Wall Street and Silicon Valley, a routine software update has spiraled into a half-billion-dollar legal battle between two industry titans. Delta Air Lines' lawsuit against cybersecurity leader CrowdStrike raises fundamental questions about corporate accountability in our increasingly interconnected world. The incident, which paralyzed one of America's largest airlines for five days, serves as a stark reminder of how thin the line has become between digital protection and digital vulnerability.
The case's implications stretch far beyond its $500 million price tag. At its core, this legal confrontation challenges our basic assumptions about cybersecurity partnerships. When CrowdStrike's update crashed 8.5 million Windows computers worldwide, it didn't just expose technical vulnerabilities—it revealed a critical gap in our understanding of how modern enterprises should balance innovation with stability. Delta's claim that it had explicitly disabled automatic updates, only to have CrowdStrike allegedly circumvent these preferences, adds a layer of complexity that could reshape how businesses approach their cybersecurity relationships.
Perhaps most intriguingly, this case forces us to confront an uncomfortable paradox in corporate technology: can the very systems we deploy to protect our infrastructure become our greatest point of failure? As businesses pour billions into digital transformation, the Delta-CrowdStrike saga suggests that our cybersecurity paradigm might need a fundamental rethink. With federal regulators now involved and industry leaders watching closely, the outcome of this battle could redefine the boundaries of corporate liability in the digital age and set new standards for how we approach the delicate balance between security and operational stability.
SentinelOne (S) AnalysisCompany Overview: SentinelOne is preparing to release its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 27. The company, known for its cybersecurity solutions, is poised to deliver solid financial performance, driven by consistent growth and strong earnings surprises.
Key Highlights:
Revenue Expectations: SentinelOne NYSE:S anticipates total revenues of $197 million for Q2, aligning with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This figure represents a significant 31.84% growth compared to the same quarter last year.
Earnings Performance: The consensus estimate for the company’s loss per share has remained steady at 1 cent, an improvement from the 8 cents per share loss reported in the year-ago period. This steady estimate reflects the company's efforts to improve profitability.
Historical Earnings Surprises: SentinelOne has a strong track record of exceeding earnings expectations, with an average earnings surprise of 64.79% over the past four quarters. This track record highlights the company's ability to outperform market forecasts consistently.
Technical Outlook: Given the company's strong performance history and the current technical setup, the stock is positioned well for potential growth.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on S if it holds above the $22.00-$22.75 range. Upside Potential: The upside target for SentinelOne is set at $27.00-$28.00, supported by the company’s robust growth prospects and positive earnings track record.
🏅 SentinelOne—poised for growth with strong earnings performance and bullish technicals! #S #Cybersecurity 🚀📈
S SentinelOne Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought S before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of S SentinelOne prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 27usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.07.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Can Palo Alto Networks Sustain Its Cybersecurity Dominance?Palo Alto Networks has cemented its status as a cornerstone in the cybersecurity industry with a stellar Q4 performance. Their ability to not only meet but exceed expectations, coupled with a strategic pivot towards platformization, positions the company at the forefront of a rapidly evolving landscape.
The company's financial results are a testament to its operational efficiency and strategic acumen. The impressive growth in Next-Generation Security ARR underscores the market's confidence in Palo Alto Networks' ability to deliver innovative and effective security solutions. This, combined with the company's strong balance sheet and cash flow generation, provides a solid foundation for future growth.
However, the cybersecurity arena is characterized by constant evolution, with emerging threats and technological advancements demanding continuous adaptation. Palo Alto Networks will need to maintain its focus on research and development, while also expanding its market reach to sustain its leadership position. The company's success in navigating these challenges will be crucial in determining its long-term trajectory.
Investors will be keen to monitor Palo Alto Networks' ability to execute its platformization strategy and expand its customer base. Additionally, the company's financial performance against the backdrop of a potentially slowing economy will be a key indicator of its resilience.
Ultimately, Palo Alto Networks' capacity to innovate, adapt, and deliver exceptional value to its customers will be instrumental in shaping its future success.
Make it or break it moment for $SWith the spectacular fall of NASDAQ:CRWD last week I expect to be a decisive week for SentinelOne.
Scenario nr 1
Break out of the correction or for Bill O'Neill followers break out of the base.
Supporting evidence:
1. Fundamental. Better than expected earnings
The biggest competitor is having a terrible day
2. Rising MACD histogram on the weekly
3. MACD lines almost crossing
4. Force Index getting positive
5. Getting The Positive Direction Line above the Negative Directional Line will mean that the bullish traders dominate the market.
Scenario nr 2
Break out is not ready yet and we go back in the correction range evidenced on my graph by the parallel channel
Why?
Waiting for earnings confirmation?
Force Index above 0 is minor at this point a follow-up week will break the trend.
The stock needs to deal with the overhang supply. First hurdle, people who bought around the $22 price.
Crowdstrike pushing towards all time highs!Crowdstrike has been in a strong upward trend since the beginning of 2023. Pullbacks were generally short-lived, and the trend accelerated early this year.
CRWD reached its ATH in March, surpassing the 300 mark it reached in 2021. A significant consolidation occurred after that, but it seems like the bulls have garnered sufficient strength to test 360 again, after failing to breach the level 2 weeks ago, and maybe push the stock to new highs. The stock's 7% jump after beating the Q1 earnings estimate proved to be a perfect launchpad for this, CRWD is now trading above the 50, 100 & 200 SMA again.
Should the 360 mark be broken, traders can start looking up to the 400$ mark.
Fundamentally speaking, the threat of novel cybersecurity attacks is unfortunately not going to go away. Black hats are developing smarter-than-ever malware. To the eyes of many, Crowdstrike's AI-boosted cloud-based cybersec solutions offer powerful counters to those threats, so it is probably unlikely that Crowdstrike will see a sharp drop in demand in the near future as companies and their IT-teams are still catching up. According to the IDC (International Data Corporation) GenAI (Generative AI) in the cybersecurity market is growing at a CAGR of 23.6% and projects that it will reach a $46.3 billion market value by 2027.
Stay safe out there and trade responsibly!
CrowdStrike (CRWD) Analysis Market Leadership:
CrowdStrike NASDAQ:CRWD , a global cybersecurity leader, is experiencing increased spending from existing clients, with 64% of customers using five or more cloud modules as of January 31, 2024. This customer loyalty drives CrowdStrike toward its target adjusted subscription gross margin of 82% to 85%.
Investor Confidence:
Prominent investors, including Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors and Israel Englander of Millennium, are accumulating positions in CRWD, indicating strong confidence in its future prospects.
Advanced Technology:
CrowdStrike's Falcon platform, a cloud-native solution utilizing AI and machine learning, oversees trillions of events weekly. This advanced technology has boosted retention rates from below 94% to a steady 98% over seven years, showcasing high customer trust.
Leadership Insight:
CEO George Kurtz emphasizes the company's appeal: "Customers favor our single platform approach. CrowdStrike is cybersecurity's consolidator of choice, innovator of choice, and platform of choice to stop breaches."
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on CRWD above the $295.00-$300.00 range.
Upside Potential: With a target set at $485.00-$490.00, key drivers include increasing customer spending, advanced technology adoption, and strong investor confidence.
📊🛡️ Monitor CrowdStrike for promising investment opportunities! #CRWD #Cybersecurity 📈🔍
$S Potential H2 2024 Breakout After Extended Basing Period$S:1D
HH VWAP (highest high): yellow: 22.87
LL VWAP (lowest low): pink: 19.74
Major Fibs: left side
Minor Fibs: right side
After an extended, multi-year basing period NYSE:S appears ready to breakout to the upside over the remainder of 2024. That being said, the road to a breakout could be a bit rocky in the near term.
The stock has suffered a 29% peak to trough decline from YTD peak of 30.76 achieved on February 14, 2024. More recently, down guidance in mid-March of 2024 has led to a subsequent dip in analyst earnings forecasting for Q1, 2024, essentially having an attenuating effect on the potential for upside impulsivity to emerge.
I view the analyst 'down forecast' for Q1 2024 as 'isolated' given the steady increase in future earnings forecasting from Q2 2024 onward. Current quarterly earnings forecasts includes the potential for a milestone 'first' positive earnings print for Q3 2024 which could serve as the catalyst for a move to the upside. Increasing quarterly revenue forecasts appear undaunted by the potential for a down earnings quarter in Q1 of 2024 and continue to move 'up and to the right'. (see below)
Steadily increasing quarterly revenue streams are often indicative of a company expanding market share within their industry but can be the product of an expanding market within the industry itself resulting in a particular company increasing their revenues without increasing their actual market share. In order to meaningfully expand market share NYSE:S would need to begin taking share from its industry competitors in a more accelerated and aggressive manner.
Signal is currently resting slightly above the HH VWAP (yellow) at 22.87 and remains above the RET 0.5 (20.52) from early November 2023 lows but has yet to reach an 'oversold' state of 30 or below on the 1D RSI which could, theoretically, be achieved with a downward move to below the LL VWAP (pink) at 19.74. Volume flows as measured by OBV (bottom indicator) have fallen below the 50 day simple moving average but remain positive and seem to be finding potential support slightly above prior resistance which peaked in early June of 2023.
Upside target to reach before EOY 2024, is the RET 1.382 (35.43) level which is roughly 51.99% above the current price of 23.31. Trade would invalidate with a 3 bar, 'body close below the line' of the RET 0.236 (17.43) level on the 1D time frame.
Chart is in log scale and Fib levels are based on log scale.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Blackberry 2024Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today, we stand on the brink of a remarkable transformation, driven by a company that has redefined itself with vision and resilience. That company is BlackBerry. Once known for its iconic smartphones, BlackBerry has boldly transitioned into new territories, emerging as a leader in cybersecurity, the Internet of Things (IoT), and advanced automotive technology. This journey is nothing short of inspiring, and it sets the stage for a bright and prosperous future.
BlackBerry’s story is one of relentless innovation and strategic reinvention. By shifting focus from hardware to software, BlackBerry has positioned itself in the heart of two booming industries: cybersecurity and IoT. In a world where cyber threats are ever-evolving, the demand for robust, intelligent security solutions has never been higher. BlackBerry, with its acquisition of Cylance, is at the forefront of this battle, delivering AI-driven cybersecurity solutions that protect organizations worldwide. This commitment to security not only safeguards data but also builds trust and confidence among customers and partners.
Moreover, BlackBerry’s QNX software is revolutionizing the automotive industry. As we move towards a future of connected and autonomous vehicles, QNX stands as a cornerstone of this technological evolution. From in-car systems to advanced driver-assistance systems, BlackBerry’s software ensures safety, reliability, and innovation on the roads. This isn't just about technology; it's about shaping the future of transportation and making our roads safer for everyone.
The Internet of Things represents a vast landscape of opportunities, and BlackBerry is ready to seize them. With the proliferation of IoT devices across various sectors—healthcare, industrial automation, smart cities—BlackBerry’s secure solutions are essential for managing and protecting these interconnected systems. The growth potential here is immense, and BlackBerry is uniquely positioned to lead the charge.
Financial strength and strategic acquisitions have further solidified BlackBerry’s foundation. These moves are not just about expanding capabilities; they are about investing in a future where BlackBerry continues to lead and innovate. Partnerships with technology giants like Amazon Web Services enhance our technological prowess and market reach, driving us forward into new frontiers.
As we look ahead, the future shines brightly for BlackBerry. The expanding cybersecurity market, the evolution of autonomous vehicles, the explosive growth of IoT, and the increasing need for enterprise security all point to a horizon filled with promise and potential. BlackBerry’s unwavering commitment to innovation and excellence ensures that we are not just keeping pace with change but driving it.
So, let us embrace this journey with confidence and determination. Let us celebrate BlackBerry’s resilience and vision. Together, we are part of a story that continues to inspire and innovate, a story that promises a brighter, safer, and more connected future. With BlackBerry leading the way, the possibilities are boundless, and the future is ours to shape.
Thank you.
Study of Dark Pool Buy Zones: CRWDNASDAQ:CRWD reports out of season, June 4th. When outlined to eliminate the extreme price action, there is a clear sideways trend. This is a Dark Pool Buy Zone. When the stock moves outside of that zone, it recovers quickly back into the zone.
The huge Black candle was a gap up by HFTs on the last earnings report, followed by pros taking profits. Along with a lack of accumulation at that level, the stock whipsawed back down. The black candles thereafter were smaller funds selling on each bounce. Notice the tiny white candles that follow the black candles (see the orange arrows), patterns that reveal controlled, incremental buying against the selling.
This is a longer sideways trend with stronger support and more definition of the buy zone despite heavy interference from small funds selling in the past couple of months.
#CYBER/USDT#CYBER
We have a bullish trend pattern on a 4-hour frame, the price moves based on it and adheres to its limits well
We have a tendency to stabilize above moving average 100
We have an uptrend on the RSI indicator that supports the price higher
Entry price is 8.80
The first goal is 9.67
The second goal is 10.96
the third goal is 12.03
We Like The StockBullish on ANET for a pre-earnings run up. Breakout level = 297 . I am buying any dip over the next day or so in the 284-287 range (buy zone). If it breaks above 297 I'll chase.
*Initial target range = 306-313 by 4/19
**Goal Target = 335 by 4/26
- Stop Loss = sustained break below 285, if this occurs it will form a "spring" in its re-accumulation phase in the 270s before breaking out end of Apr. rather than in the coming week.
Swing Into Potential Crash - Pt. 2PANW has traded in a boring range since I last posted my original idea (linked below). Here are the dynamics that have unfolded, and my forecast from here:
- The main factor we need to determine is if the recent consolidation is accumulation or re-distribution (I'm leaning toward re-distribution with a UTAD upcoming - meaning one more pop before major drop).
- There is a ton of overhanging supply, but at the same time a major gap above to fill
- Overall market is nearing a top (but still some gas left in the tank), so if we assume PANW won't completely disregard the rest of the market, then the re-distribution with a UTAD scenario makes sense ( for traders this means swing long currently, and then swing short based on
my updated forecast, below)
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Forecast/Predicted price action:
A) Needs to clear 281.71 to give a new signal to enter long (I want to see a close above that level this week). If it gets rejected again at 281.71 then it will see another pullback along the thick red arrow on chart.
B) If we clear 281.71 then it will test 287.79 minimum , so I'll be looking at Apr 26 285 or 286 calls. Once it tests 287.79 , I'll sell half of my calls ITM and then wait for the major test (i.e. rejection at 287-288 or breakout above that level)
- If rejected then I will exit remaining calls but not switch to puts just yet, would need more confirmation. It would likely pullback along the 1pt red arrow if rejected
- if breaks above then I will hold my calls for target scenario (C)
C) If we get to scenario (B) and get the breakout above 287.79, then I'm expecting continuation higher to 298 - 300 ( my initial target = 299.20 by 4/19/2024 ).
- after it hits initial target then it will pullback to retest 287-288 for support before making one final run into the 300s. Don't short until this makes it into 300s to test the gap. It will crash later in 2024 so shorts will have their day soon. I'll send an update once this makes it to 299, but until then I gave you everything you need to trade this.
~Not financial advice. I'm not currently in a position, but will enter calls if we get the sustained break (or close) above 281.79.
Swing It Into A Potential CrashIn summary, if you are in (or considering buying) shares, this is Mid-term bearish. I would highly recommend against entering or adding shares here. You will likely have a better chance to exit/sell in the 330s around March 11-12th.
For those playing options, I can share my strategy - you'll have to be nimble to swing this for profits, but very do-able since I know the path it will take from here.
The smarter strategy is to wait until this confirms a higher low and then short it around March 12th-13th, But if you like making real money on weekly options with high risk here is what to do. Not Financial Advice.
To follow this chart, just pay attention to the thick black arrow - that is my forecast/path that price action will take. The thick red and green arrows align with the black arrow. Read below to see the exact levels and pivot dates I am looking for.
- PANW will likely pullback some more to 276-290 (-4% to -9% from current price: 302.40). This will happen fast - by March 5th End of Day (3/5/2024). So IF it doesn't gap down Monday, I'll be buying a few Mar 8 295 puts for ~3.40 and then looking to sell for over 7.00 Tuesday 3/5 before the close . But if it gaps down Monday 3/5 (which is possible), I'll be holding off on this swing and waiting for my chance to swing long. Hard stop loss will be a break above 306 at any point, if it breaks above 306 that is first near-term bullish signal, if it breaks above 315 it will confirm it has started next bullish leg.
- After the small pullback to expected range of 276-290, PANW will make its last bounce to around 327-338 (depending on where it bottoms in current down leg, this is a possible +16% to +22% bounce coming). Once I sell my Mar 8 puts on 3/5 before close, I will immediately buy Mar 15 300 calls - the premiums should be around 3.00-5.00 at this point but it will depend on where it bottoms exactly. The bounce will last through 3/11-3/12, so I will be looking to sell half my calls at 327 (for at least 27.00) and then sell the other half around 338 (for at least 38.00)
*** After this bounce to 327-338, the real downside will begin. I will send an update with my precise target when we see how this plays out and at what levels it bottoms and tops in this path/forecast, but my estimate target is 210-240 by end of March to Early April (Potential for a 100 point drop!!). I'll be going big on April 19 puts when this bounces to the 327-338 range.
Stay tuned for updates along the way.
Ideal Bullish SetupQLYS has one of my favorite re-accumulation patterns that is setting up for a 40% rally over the next few months.
Breakout level = 172.49 (it should complete the breakout on 3/12 -3/13)
*Initial Target = 175 by 3/14/2024
** Target 1 = 184 by 3/22
Target 2 = 192
~Initial Target and Target 1 will hit on the first leg up following this breakout, Target 2 might not hit until the second leg up after a pullback to form higher low.
Expected path/forecast is the black arrow, summary:
- run to 184-192 by end of March 2024 (as early as 3/22), sign of strength
- Pullback to test 172-175 for support, backup/retest
- If that holds it will begin markup to 245 (this could take until August-November of 2024)
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Options Play:
QLYS Apr 19 2024 185.00 calls for around 3.35
Not financial advice
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QLYS trades similar to the rest of the cybersecurity names, so this will be a great supplement play to my main cyber longs PANW and CRWD. QLYS just has more affordable call premiums and can buy more time. Its setup is also more stable to support a more sustained run.
Cloudflare $Net - Will it swing into a 150%-200% move?Cloudflare NYSE:NET - Will it swing into a 150%-200% move? Cloudflare has a long way to run if it gets back to the all-time high. Price it trading above the EMAs even though we are in a pullback. If it pulls back into the EMAs, it could swing into a 150% - 200% move back to the all-time high. Cyber security will always be a concern. If Cloudflare can continue to solve those problems, especially with the quantum computing threat, Cloudflare will be relevelent.
FTNT: Dark Pool Buy Zone SupportNASDAQ:FTNT is a good example of a stock that had a big gap down that immediately filled due to falling below its fundamental level and a Dark Pool Buy Zone.
This and the sideways trading range developing on the long-term trend creates strong support for weathering any sympathy moves from other cybersecurity stocks that have been over-speculated.
Sideways action is likely to continue for a time, but AI-driven cybersecurity will only become more important in the years ahead and this stock is still at a decent price.
PSN Engineering Consultants /Design LONGParsons reports in 2 days. This multinational engineering firm thrives on infrastructure projects
like highways and bridges, airport runways and other engineering issues such as cybersecurity
walware attacks, election interference, DOS wars, dams, irrigation projects, 100-year storm
assessments and FEMA related work. I am very familiar with this multinational firm that
someday will be consulting on the rebuilt of Ukraine and the Gaza Strip. It is a stable
company with a bright and prosperous future.
The chart shows investors reacting to the impending earnings report and taking positions.
Volatility was extreme last Thursday one week before earnings. I will be adding to my long
position in PSN. This is a slow and steady wins the race type of stock best suited to long term
investors or traders with options strategies.
OKTA - 2x Potential OKTA has been in a tight range for a long time.
Got rejected many times at 92 level.
If this breaks and holds above 92 level, go long.
Long above 92
Stop loss - 80
Target #1 120 (30%)
Target #2 184 (96%)
and after some pullback
Target #3 220 (135%)
Above 130, this doesn't have much resistance until 220.