Crypto market cap - Elliot Wave countHey, I believe we are in wave 4 of 3 and that the crypto market cap will be more relevant to use than BTC to determine the wave count and the top of the cycle. What do you think?
Cycle
Short Re-entry Netflix (NFLX)Re-entry after previus stop
1)seasonality and presidential cycles (post election cycle )
2)overvalued conditions
4)bearish engulfing candle
Long Idea on CC1! (Cocoa)1)Climate change is having a significant impact on cocoa production in West and Central Africa, according to a study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). The region accounts for more than 70% of global cocoa production. Changes in temperature and rainfall are making some areas less suitable for cocoa cultivation.
2) Seasonality gives us a bullish pattern which is 98% correlated with the actual price
3)quantitative data shows 80% win rate with a good profit factor
4) The price rejected the 50 EMA forming a Pin Bar Candlestick pattern
5) The price also bounced on a demand zone
6) Price is undervalued against several benchmarks
Correlation between ZB1! and xxx/usd pairs The 30 Year treasury bonds (ZB1!) is an asset that is really negative correlated with DXY and positive correlated with the other G10 currencies (XXX/USD). Historically The ZB tends to be bearish during the first 2 weeks of february
Business CycleAll the credits to Ostium labs insights. Found here
Intuition behind different indicators
NFCI - NATIONAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX
Note y axis is inverted.
Rising NFCI here suggests loosening of financial conditions. Btc outperform in loose conditions.
DRTSCILM - NET % OF BANKS TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS
Note y axis is inverted.
This tracks changes in the willingness of banks to lend, where tightening lending standards is indicative of caution, whereas looser lending standards suggest economic confidence.
Here the graph is inverted - a rise shows improving willingness to lend and a fall shows tighter lending standards.
HYG
Real time proxy for demand of junk bonds which is a good proxy for risk appetite in the market. Demand for junk bonds is correlated with the rest of the risk curve, with Bitcoin tending to outperform during periods of strength for HYG, and vice-versa.
BAMLH0A0HYM2 - HY ICE CREDIT SPREADS
Note y axis is inverted.
This measures the premium demanded by investors over government bonds. As one would imagine, wider credit spreads mean that more yield is being demanded to invest in junk bonds vs safe bonds, which itself is suggestive of risk in the economy. Narrow spreads, meanwhile, are indicative of confidence.
The graph is inverted such that the peaks are the tightest spread. If credit spreads are narrow, risk appetite is high, which means assets further out the risk curve benefit. This is also suggestive of expansion vs contraction in the business cycle, where widening spreads would be suggestive of downturn and narrowing spreads of continued growth.
USMNO/USNMNO - US MANUFACTURING ORDERS / NON-MANUFACTURING ORDERS
Manufacturing New Orders growing faster than Non-Manufacturing New Orders is generally indicative of early recovery in a business cycle, whereas late cycle dynamics are more heavily weighted towards services, largely driven by consumer spending and therefore this ratio would begin to contract, as Non-Manufacturing New Orders dominate.
USBC0I - US PMI
A composite of the Manufacturing and Services sectors in the US economy. Above 50 = expansion and below 50 = contraction.
T10YIE - 10-YEAR INFLATION BREAKEVENS
A market-based measure of average expected inflation over the next 10 years.
Bitcoin likes it very much when the average expected inflation rate has bottomed and is trending higher and it generally underperforms when 10-year inflation breakevens are declining.
Bitcoin also tends to front-run peaks in 10-year inflation breakevens by about 6-9 months, which in turn tend to peak after Global M2 YoY growth has peaked and is turning lower.
This measure also is useful for understanding what is likely to happen to financial conditions - tighter after peaks and looser after bottoms. The clearest correlation here is not to the downside but the upside: when breakevens have bottomed out and cycle higher, Bitcoin tends to do very well indeed.
DFII10 - 10-YEAR REAL YIELD
Note y axis is inverted
What is interesting here is that whilst there is not a strong correlation as real yields rise, there is a clearer correlation as real yields fall. Falling real yields tend to be supportive of Bitcoin, whilst rising real yields have occurred whilst BTC has outperformed and underperformed historically.
This one is not as key for mapping out the market cycle, but still worth keeping an eye on.
Beans looking to drop hard, after all... Beans have been looking weak lately, and all this current and near future trade war fundamentals and uncertainty aren't going to help at all. Volatility is likely to go up this week across a lot of markets, and the ag commodities will certainly be part of that, with emotional fears from the last market crashing during the last Trump term. Beans especially didn't fair well during that time, and the corn-to-bean ratio was out of wack to where us farmers didn't want to plant beans period. We all thought (and were told) they might go to $7 or less! All while corn was poor, but much more palatable with the breakevens. Farmers, as a rule, certainly prefer to plant corn over beans anyway, if they live where they can choose as such.
But back to the bean chart, I've been thinking there was a decent enough chance we could chop around in here and bounce off of any short term weakness and key support, to make new highs for the move. A lot of guys were looking to target the high 10s and even around $11, before expecting a notable correction. Well, unfortunately, I think we've already recently peaked and are more likely to now keep correcting down, potentially quite violently.
On Friday, the 20 day EMA gave us bounce off support, but if we get a confirmation close Monday below that (likely), my opinion is we confirm we're in a larger scale wave 3 down already, and should eventually target the 9.47 and likely even lower ultimately, before we bottom in February or March, before spring seasonality and US planting weather premium allows for us to rise again.
Longterm, for this summer and beyond into 2026, I am quite bullish grains and ultimately, expect to see new all time highs, but it's not gonna be this year. Mostly due to the likelihood of a major cycle drought of our lifetime, which could happen this year but not truly affect the supply issue drastically until new crop turns into "old crop".
Long Idea On EthereumBased on my propietary indicator tools,i see a good opportunity to go long on ETH1!, seasonality gives us a clear long bias and on the POIV we can see a divergence.
Applying Time zones to theoriesApplying time zones and looking at it from a strictly time zone approach, you'll see how cyclically it may have paid out to just buy and sell around either extreme of each cycle. This is how I begin my charting process, and I think its is just a great visualization of Hurst cycles and Fib time cycles.
Carry on!
Fractal Phenomenon Proves Simulation Hypothesis?The humanity is accelerating towards the times when virtual worlds will get so realistic that their inhabitants gain consciousness without realizing they exist in a simulation. The idea that we might be living in a simulation was widely introduced in 2003 by philosopher Nick Bostrom. He argued that if the civilization can create realistic simulations, the probability that we are living in one is extremely high.
Modern games only render areas that the player is observing, much like how reality might function in a simulation. Similarly, texture of game environments update as soon as they are viewed, reinforcing the idea that observation determines what is rendered.
QUANTUM MECHANICS: The Ultimate Clue
Quantum Mechanics challenges our fundamental understanding of reality, revealing a universe that behaves more like a computational process than a physical construct. The wave function (Ψ) describes a probability distribution, defining where a particle might be found. However, upon measurement, the particle’s position collapses into a definite state, raising a paradox: why does the smooth evolution of the wave function lead to discrete outcomes? This behavior mirrors how digital simulations optimize resources by rendering only what is observed, suggesting that reality itself may function as an information-processing system.
The Born Rule reinforces this perspective by asserting that the probability of finding a particle at a given location is determined by the square of the wave function’s amplitude (|Ψ|²). This principle introduced probability into the very foundations of physics, replacing classical determinism with a probabilistic framework. Einstein famously resisted this notion, declaring, “God does not play dice,” yet Quantum Mechanics has since revealed that randomness and structure are not opposing forces but intertwined aspects of reality. If probability governs the fabric of our universe, it aligns with how simulations generate dynamic outcomes based on algorithmic rules rather than fixed physical laws.
One of the most striking paradoxes supporting the Simulation Hypothesis is Schrödinger’s Cat, which illustrates the conflict between quantum superposition and observation. In a sealed box, a cat is both alive and dead until an observer opens the box, collapsing the wave function into a single state. This suggests that reality does not exist in a definite form until it is observed—just as digital environments in a simulation are rendered only when needed.
Similarly, superposition demonstrates that a particle exists in multiple states until measured, while entanglement reveals that two particles can be instantaneously correlated across vast distances, defying classical locality. These phenomena hint at an underlying informational structure, much like a networked computational system where data is processed and linked instantaneously.
Hugh Everett’s Many-Worlds Interpretation (MWI) takes this concept further by suggesting that reality does not collapse into a single outcome but instead branches into parallel universes, where each possible event occurs. Rather than a singular, objective reality, MWI posits that we exist within a constantly expanding system of computational possibilities—much like a simulation running countless parallel computations. Sean Carroll supports this view, arguing that the wave function itself is the fundamental reality, and measurements merely reveal different branches of an underlying universal structure.
If our reality behaves like a quantum computational system—where probability governs outcomes, observation dictates existence, and parallel computations generate multiple possibilities—then the Simulation Hypothesis becomes a compelling explanation. The universe’s adherence to mathematical laws, discrete quantum states, and non-local interactions mirrors the behavior of an advanced simulation, where data is processed and rendered in real-time based on observational inputs. In this view, consciousness itself may act as the observer that dictates what is “rendered,” reinforcing the idea that we exist not in an independent, physical universe, but within a sophisticated computational framework indistinguishable from reality.
Fractals - Another Blueprint of the MATRIX?
Price movements wired by multi-cycles shaping market complexity. Long-term cycles define the broader trend, while short-term fluctuations create oscillations within that structure. Bitcoin’s movement influencing Altcoins exemplifies market entanglement—assets affecting each other, much like quantum particles. A single event in a correlated market can ripple across the entire system like in Butterfly effect. Just as a quantum particle exists in multiple states until observed, price action is a probability field—potential breakouts and breakdowns coexist until liquidity shifts. Before a definite major move, the market, like Schrödinger’s cat, remains both bullish and bearish until revealed by Fractal Hierarchy.
(Model using Weierstrass Function )
A full fractal cycle consists of multiple oscillations that repeat in a structured yet complex manner. These cycles reflect the inherent scale-invariance of market movements—where the same structural patterns appear.. By visualizing the full fractal cycle:
• We observe the relationship between micro-movements and macro-structures.
• We track the transformation of price behavior as the fractal unfolds across time.
• We avoid misleading interpretations that come from looking at an incomplete cycle, which may appear random or noisy
From Wave of Probability to Reality
1. Fractal Probability Waves – The market does not move in a straight line but rather follows a probabilistic fractal wave, where past structures influence future movements.
2. Emerging Reality – As the price action unfolds, these probability waves materialize, turning potential fractal paths into actual price trends.
3. Scaling Effect – The same cyclical behavior repeats at different scales (6H vs. 1W in this case), reinforcing the concept that price movements are self-similar and probabilistically driven.
If psychology of masses that shapes price dynamics is governed by mathematical sequences found in nature, it strongly supports the Simulation Hypothesis
Do you think we live in a simulation? Let’s discuss in comments!
AAVE - DeFi leader
As I have stated in my previous analysis AAVE is one of the leaders in DeFi sector, and stays quite underpriced still. Just as I predicted, it reached my target and now I think it will go for .618 Fib. After that in theory there also will be a correction.
But if you look at Solana chart, it has gained a lot of attraction in this cycle and has made a new ATH. I think AAVE will be one of the few Altcoins which have the required potential to make new ATH also. Let's hope and monitor
BTC - Time cycles unlock some key insights BTC is very clearly able to be carved out into time cycles, or 'Hurst' cycles, which are regular appearing patterns of units of time which can help us in informing price action. Looking at BTC, it's clearly cutting into cycles of about 40 days with the price action within each cycle very clearly going in either direction - apart from one! Looking at the most recent cycle we just entered into, the price action is likely to rise and continue to rise until either the middle of the cycle (target) or the end of the cycle (vertical line). So please add Hurst cycles to your cocktail of methods for understanding 'when' an event is likely to take place, or at least give you a marginally higher percentage probability. Good luck. Follow and share for more.
Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas
Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart.
Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce
This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside.
Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels.
Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out.
There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring.
Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea.
Disclosure
I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close
My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares
If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys
Thanks for reading!
Not Financial Advice
2025 is a Bull Year I would like to start the year with what I expect if we talk about the crypto market - a bull market until September 2025
If we talk about the stock market - bullish or flat as it was in 2005 and 2015.
If we take statistics in years that end in the number 5 (1895, 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015) - we see bull markets.
Below, I have shown weekly charts of each year ending in the number 5.
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
Here, we saw that all years are bullish, but 2005 and 2015 were reaccumulation.
Positive Scenarios for 2025
Soft monetary policy: If the Federal Reserve keeps rates at levels that support credit growth and capital availability, it will support the corporate sector and business expansion.
Technological breakthrough: A recovery in investment in artificial intelligence, green energy and biotechnology could create new growth drivers for the Dow Jones.
Sustainable global development: If geopolitical tensions diminish and international trade relations stabilize, the global economy will gain new momentum, reflected in the index's growth.
Negative Scenarios for 2025
Tight monetary policy: A sharp rise in interest rates could reduce the availability of capital, which could slow economic growth and pressure corporate profits.
Geopolitical instability: Increased conflict or trade wars between major economies could lead to declining investor confidence and capital outflows from the market.
Declining technological development: If leading sectors such as technology and green energy do not show the expected growth, it could affect market expectations and valuations.
Conclusion
Analyzing the history of the Dow Jones, years ending in 5 represent unique periods of growth and recovery. Against the backdrop of current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, 2025 could be a year of significant opportunity.
The optimistic scenario is based on continued loose monetary policy, innovation, and stabilization of global relations. However, the risks associated with tight monetary policy and global instability require caution.
For investors, 2025 could be a year of essential choices. Focus on long-term trends, analyze macroeconomic indicators, and diversify your portfolio. History shows that even in times of uncertainty, the market has the potential to grow.
And for years that end in number 7 according to bearish statistics, I will write about this in 2027
Best regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin's Ultimate Pump: The Trap Before the CrashBitcoin continues its “hype” and is close to forming the next spurt. Globally, the picture looks like close to the distribution zone. We are approaching the biggest “cheat” in history. I expect a final spurt into the zone around 120k, from here a long trade will start where altcoins will shoot up and show incredible gains. The crowd will be experiencing FOMO, heads of state and big companies will start making noise that this is just a pro-trade level for Bitcoin before the next spurt. Only the majority will fall back into the trap and end up in a bear market with huge losses. The market is set up so that only 10% will make money and the other 90% will be cheated. After the distribution is completed, I expect the bitcoin price to fall below the 0.5 Fibonacci level. The RSI value will drop below 30 units on such a drop and we will enter a global fear phase. I would attribute the next bull market to the rise of the DeSci and AI sectors. My research on the cryptocurrency market sectors shows that large funds and corporations are starting to invest in projects in these areas.
Horban Brothers.
SQ | Why Wallstreet is Bullish | LONGBlock, Inc. engages in creating ecosystems for distinct customer audiences. It operates through the Square and Cash App segments. The Square segment provides businesses the ability to accept card payments. The Cash App segment offers an ecosystem of financial products and services to help consumers manage their money. The company was founded by Jack Patrick Dorsey and James Morgan McKelvey in February 2009 and is headquartered in Oakland, CA.
PEPE, long term super cycle awaits!This is how PEPE could play out in the long-term assuming that we're putting in wave 1, which looks like a leading diaganol. In the medium term we're likely to see some lows as the minor wave 1 corrects for the clearly visible ABC. But, then hold on to your hats as we put in wave 3 which is always the most violent. If you're not out of your shorts by then, this pattern could ripe your face clean off. In any case, keep an eye and plan for early retirement. Follow for more.
DOGE price predictionI've posted a few DOGE coin predictions over the last few weeks, with this one being an adaptation of one that I've previously posted. It looks as though we could be in a handle of a very long term cup and handle, with the handle being wave 4 of 5 of 1. IF it plays out there there's a mid-term decline underway and still coming until the end of the current cycle and then up in typical impulse fashion for 1-5 for the completion of 5. But, if there is a local high, then the cup and handle is invalidated and I'll put in a new prediction. In the immidate term all crypto is likely to go down for at least another week and then up from there. Follow for more.
Post-Holiday BTC Rallies: A Historical PerspectiveIdea:
Over the past six years, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern: post-Christmas rallies. Let’s dive into the data and analyze what this could mean for the market this time around.
Historical Context:
In 5 out of the last 6 years, Bitcoin has seen significant gains shortly after the holiday season, with price increases ranging from 44% to an astonishing 272%. These rallies have been a consistent part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, making them an exciting opportunity for traders and investors.
Key Observations:
2017/18: BTC rallied over 272%, marking the peak of an explosive bull market.
2019/20: A solid 44% gain during the recovery phase from the bear market bottom.
2020/21: Post-pandemic bull run fueled a 122% surge as BTC climbed to new highs.
2021/22: A rally of 90%, driven by retail and institutional adoption.
2022/23: Another impressive rally of 72% as the market recovered from a bear cycle.
The only exception? 2018, the first phase of a brutal bear market, when market-wide sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish. This highlights a crucial insight: rallies are far less likely during early bear phases.
What About This Year?
📊 Cyclicality is Key: Bitcoin’s price action has always been heavily influenced by cycles. With the market in a recovery phase following the 2022 lows, we could be on the verge of another post-holiday rally.
📈 Factors to Watch:
Macro Sentiment: With inflation stabilizing and global markets recovering, Bitcoin is regaining strength.
Institutional Interest: Continued interest in BTC ETFs and large-scale adoption could fuel upward momentum.
Cyclical Patterns: The historical consistency of these rallies cannot be ignored.
Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Case:
If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin post significant gains over the next few months, potentially targeting new highs in 2025 as part of the broader bull cycle.
2️⃣ Bearish Case:
If macroeconomic factors or unforeseen events trigger a pullback, the rally might be subdued, or Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase.
Why This Matters:
Understanding these cyclical patterns can provide a major edge for traders. The post-holiday season has been a lucrative time for Bitcoin in the past, and recognizing these opportunities could make all the difference.
What are your thoughts? Will Bitcoin repeat history this year? Or are we in for a surprise? Share your ideas below!
Bitcoin Dominance: Cycles and Post-Halving 2024 ForecastAn analysis of BTC Dominance in the context of market cycles and halving events. The chart highlights historical patterns of dominance decline following Bitcoin price peaks, which occurred 17 months after each halving. The outlined scenario suggests a potential return to key support (~41%) before a rebound.
Will history repeat itself? Let’s watch how upcoming market events shape BTC Dominance dynamics heading into 2025.
BTC - This Christmas is NOT different!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas.
I hope you enjoy this Christmas-themed idea.🎄
💡Can you spot a pattern here?
As shown in my last two Christmas posts (attached to the chart), BTC broke out of consolidation and surged by around 70%.📈
I believe this Christmas will be no different.
For the next bullish wave to begin, a break above the orange zone is needed, which aligns perfectly with the $100,000 round number.
What do you think? Will this Christmas follow the structure of the past two years, or will it be different and lead to a deeper correction⁉️
📚Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
And Remember: All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
Merry Christmas Everyone 🎄
~Richard Nasr
CRYPTO SUPER CYCLE 2024-2026:BEAR TO BULL ALL WHAT YOU NEED HERE🔄 CRYPTO MARKET CYCLES: MAJOR TRANSITION - FROM BEAR TO BULL 2024-2026
Technical Market Cycle Analysis:
- Current price: $346.31
- Clear transition from bear to bull market
- Three distinct cycles identified: BTC, ETH, ATLS
Market Phase Breakdown:
📉 Bear Market (2022-2024):
- Declining trend complete
- Bottom formation validated
- Accumulation phase ending
📈 Bull Market (2025-2026):
- BTC cycle initiating bull run
- ETH cycle following
- ATLS cycle completing the sequence
Key Observations:
- "Traders confusion" zones marked at critical transitions
- Clear cycle progression: BTC → ETH → ATLS
- Market structure showing higher lows forming
- Volume profile supporting bullish transition
⚠️ Critical Points:
- Major market cycle shift in progress
- Multiple timeframe alignment
- Clear cycle rotation pattern
- Historical pattern repetition
🔔 Market Intelligence:
- Bull market projected until end of 2026
- Three distinct crypto cycles identified
- Clear market phase transitions
- Institutional accumulation evident
#CryptoMarketCycles #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #MarketPhases
Want detailed cycle breakdown? 📊FOLLOW ME
CYCLE 4 | LOG Trend Lines Chart - For Fun!Quick post looking at how BTC has historically respected 'log trend lines and how they may affect BTC future price action.
Will be fun to see how this model holds up over cycle 4 and future BTC cycles (view on a computer and use the future price action tools to see what happened past todays post date).
