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DYM - A Whole Different Dimension...Dear TradingView community and fellow traders, I am Richard, also known as theSignalyst. I find the DYM daily chart to be intriguing as it appears to be following the famous Wyckoff Cycle. I would like to apply Richard Wyckoff's four market stages/phases to this chart for analysis as a practical example. 1️⃣ MarkDown After being listed, DYM was bearish making lower highs and lower lows. 2️⃣ Accumulation DYM is currently trading within a big range between $1 and $2.4 in the shape of symmetrical triangle. 3️⃣ MarkUp For the MarkUp phase to start, a break above the upper bound of the range at $2.4 is needed. I hope you find this post useful, and I would appreciate your likes and support. Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard
Long
by TheSignalyst
4
QUALCOMM (QCOM): Diversified Growth Amid DowntrendQualcomm ( NASDAQ:QCOM ) presents an intriguing setup as we believe the wave I and a larger cycle might have concluded. Following its peak, NASDAQ:QCOM has dropped nearly 30%, retracing back to the range high. To finalize wave (A), we expect an additional leg down to complete the intra 5-wave structure. The likely target lies between $143 and $133, a range that aligns well with the Point of Control (POC) from March 2020 to now. This adds confluence to its significance as a potential support zone. Despite the technical setup, we caution that the risk for a long position remains high. A more favorable entry could arise once NASDAQ:QCOM reclaims the range, validating the start of a potential bullish wave. For the current quarter, Qualcomm projects revenues between $10.5 billion and $11.3 billion, with automotive sales anticipated to rise 50% year over year. CEO Cristiano Amon’s strategy to diversify Qualcomm beyond smartphones into chips for PCs, cars, and industrial machines underscores the company’s adaptability. The next financial results release is scheduled for January 29, 2025, offering further insights into Qualcomm’s trajectory. The $143-$133 range is a key zone for potential support, bolstered by its alignment with the POC. A decisive break below this zone could invalidate the bullish outlook, while a breakout above the range high may provide an opportunity to long this stock with lower risk. The completion of wave (A) would ideally coincide with a structural turnaround. We are closely monitoring NASDAQ:QCOM for any signs of a reversal. Should the stock confirm a reclaim of the range, we may consider initiating a long position with a more precise stop-loss strategy. Until then, patience and vigilance are essential.
NASDAQ:QCOM
by freeguy_by_wmc
Bitcoin cycles + logistic curve = New bull run 2023-2025 I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's price weekly logarithmic chart. Firstly, the chart examines growth and fall cycles, sometimes referred to as economic cycles or trade cycles. As you can see in my analysis, the growth cycle usually lasts approximately 150 weeks and is always longer than the fall cycle that spans out over the course of approximately 51-60 weeks. 150 bars on Bitcoin's weekly price chart, mark the beginning of the next pulse of the growth cycle that we are currently in. Everything in our life is based on cyclical patterns, especially when it comes to financial markets. If we analyze the rise and fall, we can conclude that the fall occurs faster than the growth of about three times. About logistic curve The logistic curve describes the speed of information dissemination among people. This graph describes the distribution of information in an environment. At first, an instrument is of little interest to anyone, investors are afraid of buying it, and its price fluctuates around r °. At this time, the initiated ("elite"), solely owning important information, begin to buy it, and the price slightly grows. Then the information is shared with a small circle of insiders, individual purchases grow into active buying, and the price of the instrument abruptly takes off. The general public is perplexed and can not understand what is the reason. In the third stage, news comes out and investors fearing not having time to "jump into the last car" buy up this tool that the "elite" and "proxies" are happy to sell to them at the maximum price (with joy, because at that time the "elite" there is already new information that the "elite" has taken into account, a new logistic curve in another instrument begins, or in the same, but with another sign, sales begin). The third stage is completed, when the whole society is aware of what happened, discuss everywhere, in the metro, all who could have already made There is no one to sell. The only thing that changes is the slope of the logistic curve - the information dissemination rate As a rule, 90% of bulls in high. And then the market unfolds and vice versa If you are constantly being told the same thing, then everybody knows it already. It is necessary to look not at the news If everyone around you screams the same thing, then you are in the upper zone The task of stepping back from the noise (this time it's useless overpriced NFT pictures) "WE WILL BE GOLD BEFORE THE PORN, WHILE GOLDEN IDEOLOGISTS WILL EXIST" Rothschild's "The same situation with cryptocurrencies, but this is only the beginning" Mr.EXCAVO Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
127
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
Bitcoin Buy Signal (1H)MEXC:BTCUSDT As we knew before that when IDMs got grabbed, after getting a SCOB on our structure time frame, or wait for a ChoCh on the lower time frame (which now the LTF is 5 mins chart), we can get into the position (which here is a Buy Position). And now we had a ChoCh on the 5 mins time frame on Bitcoin which allows us to open a Buy Position. P.S: Money & Risk Management is Crucial, Because nothing's certain in the market. :) I will update Bitcoin regularly, Follow me on TradingView for more. Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio
Long
by x-Aurio
Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart. Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside. Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels. Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out. There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring. Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea. Disclosure I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys Thanks for reading! Not Financial Advice
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ZachSap
XAU/BTC - Gold and Bitcoin outlook for next 6 months ?GOLD & BITCOIN OUTLOOK for the ppl saying that TVC:GOLD is outperforming CRYPTOCAP:BTC Well... not really as you can see at a relatively big timeframe on this XAU/BTC chart what is happening now ? well XAU had a rebound mid March, making a +66% pullback, it seems a lot but as you can see during august 2020 it felt 85% ! 1. made it to the previous resistance quite hardly, first sign about the bearish approach that could arrive 2. we are now around , in fact around a very hot zone, 0.4 , if we go above, more chance to see bullish moves in this chart, meaning that Gold could go more up and/or Btc could go more down, its a weekly timeframe so, im talking about a 6 months move BUT, I think XAU/BTC will not be able to pass that resistance and will in fact go big red candles till spring 3. if you look at what happened 4 years ago just copy paste it now, you should have a view of the next 5-6 months for both assets Not saying that gold is gonna plummet and XAU/BTC will go -85% this time but it should bring it a bit down, as in august 2020 it was also going parabolic and went -20% in 6 months so yes im expecting gold to go -20% during the 6 next months and of course BTC to go UPPPPPP so if they're one thing to retain here, its that Gold seems now inversely linked to the 4 years BTC cycle ! And this is quite interesting because it means that BTC has a lot more power and influence than people think Cheers & thx for reading
TVC:XAUBTCShort
by Investwine
Alikze »» ADA | Upward wave 3 scenario - 12H🔍 Technical analysis: Upward wave 3 scenario - 12H - In the analysis presented earlier in the weekly time frame, after the correction in the green box, it is currently in the range of the green box, which can continue its upward trend if it stabilizes above the green box. - In the 12-hour time frame, it is moving in an ascending channel, so far it has reacted positively to the dynamic trigger of the bottom of the channel several times. - Currently, a motivational wave has been created in the area of ​​the bottom of the channel, which can continue its advance until the middle of the channel and the supply area. 💎 According to the previous zigzag movements, the recent correction in the bottom of the channel has been a response to the AB=CD movement cycle. ⚠️In addition, if the Invalidation LVL area is touched, the ascending scenario is invalidated and must be updated again.⚠️ »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:ADAUSDT
Long
by alikze
Platinum: Little Consolidation (Wave 4); Golden RatioWe can see a very well defined cycle, and wave 1 to 3 already created. This new cycle could be a consolidation, the price can drop to 14,6% or 23,6% level. Or even in the middle between 38,2% and 23,6%, where other wicks has already touched, creating a support, where can also occur the last candle of Wave 4. Open interest in NYMEX:PL1! is falling and the major trend rising, it can occur a reverse, and this reverse will be the Wave 4. RSI left the Overbought level, followed by a failure swing, resulting in continued decline of the indicator. After the peak $1,016.45, ADX is losing strength while DMI+ has a high probability of changing position with DMI-.
CAPITALCOM:PLATINUM
by AFCapital21
Rule of 160: History Predicts Start Of Bull-Run This Week!In this analysis I want to take a closer look at previous bull-cycles and Bitcoin's behaviour in the months following the halving. The vertical yellow line is the date of the halving. The purple rectangle is the price action of the 160 days following the halving. We can very clearly see a few interesting similarities between the last three cycles: - The price pumps prior to the halving. - The price trades sideways for 160 days after the halving. - The "real" bull-run starts after the sideways price action has ended. If we follow the Rule of 160, the start of the next big bull-run would be somewhere around 27 september, which is this week! I'm aware that market conditions are different now than they were back then. Still, BTC is a very cyclical asset and has historically followed calendar based trends. There's data to suggest that we have to come down (check my previous posts), but there's also data like this that suggests that the price will increase. Time will tell. Interested to hear your opinions!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
10
Return of Volatility IndexesIt's September 18 2024 10:51pm EST, just another Wednesday. Elections are creeping up and Chinese (HSI) markets are sparking uptrend. Somehow, American volatility indexes are evidently setting up for what appears to be a big return to the upside. Perhaps only a rare few have captured it? Who knows, but the cycles don't lie and neither do the high timeframe supercycles, which imply a reversal is overdue for the volatility indexes, including UVXY (ETF), VXX(ETN), and VIX and their corresponding denominations, just to name a few. In any event, it would be fair to say that after today's close and going forward, these volatility indexes are ready for takeoff. The catalysts are not exactly clear, though. Election alone can't spark them, and if Covid triggered the last significant run, what's next? This, only time will tell, but the 'vola' indexes are nonetheless ready for takeoff.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by JuanLagos94
1
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Nvidia - A Correction Of -50% Is Starting!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is reversing at a strong resistance: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Last month Nvidia already corrected about -35% but managed to close with an indecision doji candle. However, previous cycles, the recent rally of +1.000% and the fact that Nvidia is retesting a strong resistance trendline all suggest that Nvidia will still move much lower soon. Levels to watch: $100, $55 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
27
Why is this technically a mini bear market?We find a bottom every December, usually after the election if there was a downtrend we had a collapse, like 2018 and 2022, it wasn't the Presidential election but it was the US Midterm elections. So maybe we should expect a good October, but it's quite possible that right after the election around November 10 we could have a collapse. Maybe the market will react to Kamala's victory or something else. So you can see from the RSI how cycles work, and the current cycle that started in 2023 on January 1 will end in 2025 on January 1, we had 15 months of bull market, and 9 months of bear market. So I think that on January 1, 2025 we will start a new cycle, which may well last until the end of 2026.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ohueno
BITCOIN - Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles combined with DataIf you look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin and examine the three previous cycles in crypto, you can see where we currently stand. This doesn’t guarantee that we’ll go up from here, but it does show that the chart often follows a similar pattern every cycle. Price movements are a universal phenomenon seen across all charts in various sectors, not just crypto. Often, you’ll notice an asset testing its all-time high (ATH) and then taking a “breath.” After that, the asset typically moves beyond its ATH and embarks on a bullish journey. The market tends to become more greedy once it surpasses the ATH because it means everyone in the market is in profit. Of course, it depends on what you bought, but the principle remains the same. I see a lot of people worried about where we’re headed next. Nothing is for certain, but stop reading the news and worrying about recessions. England and Germany are currently in recessions and have just broken their ATHs. Recessions have nothing to do with price action. Many are also concerned that the markets will crash once the rate cut season starts, which is highly likely to occur in September. However, historical data suggests otherwise. If you look back 70 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% return one year after the first rate cut. By using data and following cycles, like the one below and the 18.6-year real estate and economic cycle, it becomes much easier to handle the drawdowns and negativity you hear around you. Using Fibonacci retracement, I believe we could see a top for Bitcoin around $150-200K before the next bear market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WealthNode
Bitcoin Is Perfectly On Track This CycleIn this analysis I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's current bull-cycle and compare it with the previous cycles. I count from December 2011 onwards. As seen on the chart, the first cycle (yellow) is an outlier in both duration and growth. We will likely never experience something like that again. The most interesting cycles to compare the current cycle to ar the second (blue) and the third (purple). As Bitcoin matures as an asser, it will likely experience diminishing returns. In other words; lower total gains from bear bottom to bull top. However, cycle 4 is outperforming both previous cycles at their respective times. The most logical explanation would be that we had the BTC Spot ETF this year, which caused massive bullish pressure from institutional investors. Chances are that we have to endure a couple more neutral/bearish months in order to get below the blue and purple lines before we can see any substantial growth to >100k. All in all, this cycle is on track with the previous cycles. If it were to follow the last two, we can expect BTC to top somewhere in the last quarter of 2025. Happy to hear your thoughts!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
4
Weak Dollar And Bullish Technicals Signal For Higher BitcoinAfter some initial recession fears spurred by the NFP report showing higher unemployment (4.3%) at the start of Avugust, stocks have bounced back up as last week’s retail sales data indicates the economy isn’t as bad as feared. CPI figures have also helped stabilize the markets, and with the FED potentially closer to cutting rates in September, the stock market may continue higher. Now that stocks are back to bullish mode, we can see a strong risk-on sentiment that can push stocks even higher, while USDollar will most likely stay under bearish pressure along with US Yields, which can help Crypto market to stay in the bullish trend. So this time we want to update an interesting weekly BITCOIN technical chart we have been tracking for the last two years. Notice that back in 2023, bitcoin broke out of a downtrend channel and then retested it as a support, followed by a rise above 50-week Moving Average, which interestingly, also held as a support. Since then price turned higher, and start forming some extended structures since the beginning of 2024. Now in the second part of 2024 we got some slowdown after touching 80k, but it clearly looks like a corrective and sideways price movement within uptrend, that once again retested 50-week MA support, also with nice bullish hammer candlestick formation. That said, be aware of a bullish continuation into the end of 2024.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ew-forecast
Alt Season is Right Around the CornerBitcoin dominance has been growing in the past few days as it outperforms the rest of the cryptocurrency market after the sharp drop last week. Many things are pointing towards Bitcoin continuing to outperform in the short term as we gear up for the next parabolic bull market. However, alt season is very close and, once BTC confirms it's breakout towards 100k, a lot of the large caps like Ethereum and Solana will begin to go up very quickly. This is based on my cyclical analysis of alt seasons. To get a better idea of the cyclicality of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and alt seasons, check out my previous post which predicts the next parabolic rise in November: An important thing to note when referring to alt seasons is that they don't last long (only a few months). So understand your timeframe when investing over the coming weeks. Another important idea is how money tends to flow during this period. It historically starts with Bitcoin breaking its all time high and beginning to rise. During this time, altcoins tend to underperform. But once BTC consolidates and begins to go sideways, that's when the rest of the market has time to catch up. In the chart I show 4 key points: Bitcoin This is when BTC makes a significant breakout whether that's from a significant resistance level or its ATH. This is where BTC is outperforming 99% of the market. Ethereum & Large Caps BTC will begin to slow down and a lot of the major altcoins will see a big increase. This is where you can find great trade setups on the BTC pairs like ETHBTC, SOLBTC, etc. BTC Consolidates BTC will start to go sideways, cooling off and preparing for its next rise. From here you might see some pumps in mid-low caps. These tend to be volatile and hard to predict. Small caps - Quick and fast As BTC continues to go sideways, some small caps might experience quick pumps in price. Similarly, these tend to be even more volatile and hard to predict. After this, the pattern repeats back up to Bitcoin until we reach a peak and begin a new bear market. The cryptocurrency bull market is brewing up and alt season can offer some incredibly profitable opportunities. Plan ahead, and don't overtrade.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by spilkerBTC
$BTC1! Fib Simulation of Fractal (UPD)Perceiving the price action as a function of trading time justifies the quantitative approach in drawing geometric relationship between phases of cycles. Hence, it's safe for me to assume that market is a time fractal which has its own path regardless the collective opinions of the market participants. Logistic curve that reflects well the speed of information spreading made me ignore the voices of masses. The principle aligns with EMH - that the condition of the market is already reflected in the current price. Impulsive and corrective waves are governed by golden rule in one way or the other. That's why I used fibonacci channels to build predictive models which reflect the interconnectedness of composite fractals to the whole cycle. By measuring the extreme levels of historic wave, the derived fibonacci channels exposed the timing, size and probability levels of the next ones. In regular TA, people are wrongfully focused on covering their immediate expectations from the market, analyzing a narrow data range of the chart. Whereas, Fractal Analysis graphically shows how current price is interconnected with the entire history of fluctuations in a single probabilistic map. In this update I fused earlier discovered structures and boundaries to the chart Added more series of fib ratios derived from white triangle (src 0;1) Linear boundaries of macro-fractal: Implementation of fibs with big time Intervals: As violet Fibs: Other observations: We're in a big triangle derived by linear extension 2021 tops and Full cycle (COVID - 2022 LOWS) Source: Implementation: (On interactive chart it darkens till intersection)
CME:BTC1!
by fract
1