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Cycle-bottom

📉 The Tightening MA 100 and MA 200: A History of Bull Markets Cryptocurrency markets have an intriguing history of patterns and cycles. Many traders have observed a notable sign that often heralds a bull market: when the Moving Averages (MA) 100 and 200 start to converge. This historical market indicator is back in focus as recent market conditions have seen these moving averages constrict. The Significance of Moving Averages: Moving Averages, particularly the MA 100 and MA 200, are essential tools in technical analysis. When these two indicators converge and approach each other, they often create a technical event called a "golden cross." This suggests an impending shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Contraction as a Prelude to Expansion: Notably, this time around, the market displayed an even more compelling scenario. Not only did we witness the MA 100 and MA 200 coming close, but we also saw a dip below these averages. This event created a historical context where traders had to navigate the market under the MA 200, which was followed by a swift recovery. The Essence of Challenges: In the world of trading and investing, it's essential to remember that difficult times often cultivate the strongest individuals. These challenges, which include price volatility, market manipulation, and psychological pressures, help shape resilient and knowledgeable traders. Trading Strategy: Preparation for the Future: Traders are increasingly vigilant of the MA 100 and MA 200 interaction, especially when it comes to the potential formation of a golden cross. While historical patterns offer insights, it's critical for traders to adapt their strategies based on the current market climate and the broader economic landscape. Conclusion: Lessons from History The market's oscillations have offered lessons over the years. As the MA 100 and MA 200 constrict, market participants are reminded of the significance of this historical technical indicator. While challenges often precede opportunities, they can also shape traders into more adaptable and resourceful individuals. 📊 Market Analysis | 🧠 Trader Insights | 💹 Technical Indicators ❗See related ideas below❗ What are your thoughts on the convergence of MA 100 and MA 200?💚📈💚
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
1
BTC 4 Year Cycle Bottoms in NovemberWe've already begun a short squeeze that will go much higher than people expect. This will turn into belief that cycle has bottomed and FOMO will carry it higher. Price will meet the the 200 day moving average and the sell zone of the current channel at the 29k support zone, now resistance, in late September. Shorts will have been thoroughly wrecked, and FOMO'ers bags will be thoroughly loaded for a long squeeze. Price nukes into November for the real bottom of the cycle. Why November? Check my related ideas.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by jchristy3
2
BTC 4 Year Cycle - UpdateThis is my projection for the next few and final months of the BTC cycle. If the consistent and precise cadence of the BTC 4 year cycle remains in tact, November will be the bottom of this cycle, but the details of how we arrive there, if indeed we do, are highly speculative. I'm just throwing this out there for bragging rights in case I'm right. In any case, regardless of how it this actually plays out, my long strategy will start in November and last until the next cycle top in Oct 2025: dollar cost average, accumulate, leverage the lows, de-risk the highs. I linked to my original idea regarding the cadence of the 4 year cycle below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by jchristy3
BTC/USD cycle bottom found - time to celebrate?This analysis is not intended to be a piece of financial advice. It is affirmative to believe that Bitcoin Cycle Bottom is technically formed and found. The market may show some rally, as well as a reversal to retest the Cycle formation so the swings will benefit. Markets may anticipate some relief as the labor report is above expected numbers. The next interest rate may likely be not 75 basis points; instead, it is likely that Fed may reconsider going for 50 basis points that will help sustain the Bottom Formation. Still not a time to go Long. If one should, setting a limit of 18.8k can prove to be a wiser move.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by coreSATS
🔥 Bitcoin Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator Signals Bear Market BottomBefore we dive deeper into the analysis I want to give a quick overview of what the pi-cycle bottom indicator is, "The indicator comprises a 471-day simple moving average (SMA) and a 150-period exponential moving average (EMA). Furthermore, the 471-day SMA is multiplied by 0.745; the outcome is pitted against the 150-day EMA to predict the underlying market's bottom." In short, the Pi-Cycle bottom indicator is similar too the Pi-Cycle top indicator, but with different values. Historically, the Pi-Cycle bottom indicator has signaled the BTC bear-market bottom within 3 days of the signal. This would mean that the BTC bottom will be in within the next three days. However, will the pi-cycle bottom indicator work again this time? There's only two previous instances of the indicator working, one can't really deduce statistical validity from an N=2. Funnily enough, people said the same thing about the Pi-Cycle top indicator last year. In hindsight, the Pi-Cycle top indicator did a great job signaling the technical top for the current BTC cycle (technical top = top based on indicators and on-chain metrics). Will this time be different? Maybe. The current macro-economic outlook is vastly different from the previous cycles. Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market has never been this high and, with inflation still on the rise and a recession looming, stocks are more likely to go down than to go up in the near-future. Unless today's CPI numbers will cause a huge 20%-30% sell-off, I don't think that BTC will bottom within the next three days. Time will tell. Nevertheless, I think that this indicator is one of the better bear-market bottom indicators. Bottoms never occur when people expect it.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
11
Pi-Cycle Bottom Will Cross Tomorrow Most LikelyThe Pi-Cycle Bottom will most likely cross tomorrow. If the indicator remains predictive, and consistent with itself, the bottom should occur within a few days of it crossing. This would imply significant downside coinciding with an important CPI/Fed meeting this week. There is precedent for the indicator crossing and BTCUSD falling -40% within the following few days. I've wavered quite a lot on the question of whether the macro bottom is in. Mostly due to Ben Cowen's credibility and views, I'm currently leaning towards the bottom not being in and significant downside still to come. The pi-cycle bottom crossing in this context may impy we will see a large downside move in the next week.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MarkLefevre
1
BTC 200 week MA at 24k when adjusted for monetary inflationWhen BTC is divided by the m2 money supply, we can see that current "REAL BTC" prices are not as far off from the 200 and 300 week MAs as it appears on the standard BTC/USD chart. The drastic increase in the money supply has made a significant difference in how far off REAL BTC prices are from the 200 and the 300 week MAs as compared to previous market cycle bottoms. This suggests that the true market cycle bottom may be higher than expected when basing it off the 200 and 300 weeks MAs. With the REAL 200 week MA currently at 24k USD, and the REAL 300 week MA currently at 18k USD. As opposed to 22k and and 16k respectively on the standard BTC/USD chart.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Bitcalagon
1