Cryptocurrency markets have an intriguing history of patterns and cycles. Many traders have observed a notable sign that often heralds a bull market: when the Moving Averages (MA) 100 and 200 start to converge. This historical market indicator is back in focus as recent market conditions have seen these moving averages constrict.
The Significance of Moving...
We've already begun a short squeeze that will go much higher than people expect.
This will turn into belief that cycle has bottomed and FOMO will carry it higher.
Price will meet the the 200 day moving average and the sell zone of the current channel at the 29k support zone, now resistance, in late September.
Shorts will have been thoroughly wrecked, and FOMO'ers...
This is my projection for the next few and final months of the BTC cycle.
If the consistent and precise cadence of the BTC 4 year cycle remains in tact, November will be the bottom of this cycle, but the details of how we arrive there, if indeed we do, are highly speculative. I'm just throwing this out there for bragging rights in case I'm right.
In any case,...
This analysis is not intended to be a piece of financial advice.
It is affirmative to believe that Bitcoin Cycle Bottom is technically formed and found. The market may show some rally, as well as a reversal to retest the Cycle formation so the swings will benefit. Markets may anticipate some relief as the labor report is above expected numbers. The next interest...
Before we dive deeper into the analysis I want to give a quick overview of what the pi-cycle bottom indicator is,
"The indicator comprises a 471-day simple moving average (SMA) and a 150-period exponential moving average (EMA). Furthermore, the 471-day SMA is multiplied by 0.745; the outcome is pitted against the 150-day EMA to predict the underlying market's...
The Pi-Cycle Bottom will most likely cross tomorrow.
If the indicator remains predictive, and consistent with itself, the bottom should occur within a few days of it crossing.
This would imply significant downside coinciding with an important CPI/Fed meeting this week.
There is precedent for the indicator crossing and BTCUSD falling -40% within the following...
For those still following at home, a final update before we get our enviable cross on our custom coded Cycle Bottom Indicator first live test.
As per previous posts, indicator has been fitted using the past two prior cycle bottoms with a 3 day tolerance.
When BTC is divided by the m2 money supply, we can see that current "REAL BTC" prices are not as far off from the 200 and 300 week MAs as it appears on the standard BTC/USD chart.
The drastic increase in the money supply has made a significant difference in how far off REAL BTC prices are from the 200 and the 300 week MAs as compared to previous market cycle...
It is possibly very optimistic, but Bitcoin having bottomed is more likely than Bitcoin seeing new lows.
If Bitcoin settles below 0.5 it becomes very dangerous.
If Bitcoin settles below 0.618 it is a very serious sell signal in my opinion.
This allows scaling of the bitcoin supply to more accurately identify trends set by previous market (mining) cycles to identify useful points of support/resistance.
![BTCUSD: Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 07]](https://s3.tradingview.com/p/P2PuTQUi_mid.png "Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart [UPDATE 07]")
